[Maritime climate therapy. The effect of maritime climate on the epinephrine-blood sugar-leukocyte test and the differential water test in endogenous eczmea].
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Adrenal Medulla↗
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[Maritime climate therapy. Changes of blood pressure during maritime climate therapy in endogenous eczema].
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Adolescent↗
[Maritime climate therapy. Effect of maritime climate therapy on subjective disorders in endogenous eczema].
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Climatotherapy↗
[Environmental climate and enzootic pneumonia--with special reference to climatic measurements].
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Animals↗
[Effectiveness of sanatorium and climate treatment of patients with nonspecific lung diseases arriving in the Crimea from various climatic zones of the country].
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Acclimatization↗
Abrupt climate change: can society cope?
Consideration of abrupt climate change has generally been incorporated neither in analyses of climate-change impacts nor in the design of climate adaptation strategies. Yet the possibility of abrupt climate change triggered by human perturbation of the climate system is used to support the position of both those who urge stronger and earlier mitigative action than is currently being contemplated and those who argue that the unknowns in the Earth system are too large to justify such early action. This paper explores the question of abrupt climate change in terms of its potential implications for society, focusing on the UK and northwest Europe in particular. The nature of abrupt climate change and the different ways in which it has been defined and perceived are examined. Using the example of the collapse of the thermohaline circulation (THC), the suggested implications for society of abrupt climate change are reviewed; previous work has been largely speculative and has generally considered the implications only from economic and ecological perspectives. Some observations about the implications from a more social and behavioural science perspective are made. If abrupt climate change simply implies changes in the occurrence or intensity of extreme weather events, or an accelerated unidirectional change in climate, the design of adaptation to climate change can proceed within the existing paradigm, with appropriate adjustments. Limits to adaptation in some sectors or regions may be reached, and the costs of appropriate adaptive behaviour may be large, but strategy can develop on the basis of a predicted long-term unidirectional change in climate. It would be more challenging, however, if abrupt climate change implied a directional change in climate, as, for example, may well occur in northwest Europe following a collapse of the THC. There are two fundamental problems for society associated with such an outcome: first, the future changes in climate currently being anticipated and prepared for may reverse and, second, the probability of such a scenario occurring remains fundamentally unknown. The implications of both problems for climate policy and for decision making have not been researched. It is premature to argue therefore that abrupt climate change - in the sense referred to here - imposes unacceptable costs on society or the world economy, represents a catastrophic impact of climate change or constitutes a dangerous change in climate that should be avoided at all reasonable cost. We conclude by examining the implications of this contention for future research and policy formation.
Adaptation, Psychological↗
Integrated approaches to climate-crop modelling: needs and challenges.
This paper discusses the need for a more integrated approach to modelling changes in climate and crops, and some of the challenges posed by this. While changes in atmospheric composition are expected to exert an increasing radiative forcing of climate change leading to further warming of global mean temperatures and shifts in precipitation patterns, these are not the only climatic processes which may influence crop production. Changes in the physical characteristics of the land cover may also affect climate; these may arise directly from land use activities and may also result from the large-scale responses of crops to seasonal, interannual and decadal changes in the atmospheric state. Climate models used to drive crop models may, therefore, need to consider changes in the land surface, either as imposed boundary conditions or as feedbacks from an interactive climate-vegetation model. Crops may also respond directly to changes in atmospheric composition, such as the concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2), ozone (03) and compounds of sulphur and nitrogen, so crop models should consider these processes as well as climate change. Changes in these, and the responses of the crops, may be intimately linked with meteorological processes so crop and climate models should consider synergies between climate and atmospheric chemistry. Some crop responses may occur at scales too small to significantly influence meteorology, so may not need to be included as feedbacks within climate models. However, the volume of data required to drive the appropriate crop models may be very large, especially if short-time-scale variability is important. Implementation of crop models within climate models would minimize the need to transfer large quantities of data between separate modelling systems. It should also be noted that crop responses to climate change may interact with other impacts of climate change, such as hydrological changes. For example, the availability of water for irrigation may be affected by changes in runoff as a direct consequence of climate change, and may also be affected by climate-related changes in demand for water for other uses. It is, therefore, necessary to consider the interactions between the responses of several impacts sectors to climate change. Overall, there is a strong case for a much closer coupling between models of climate, crops and hydrology, but this in itself poses challenges arising from issues of scale and errors in the models. A strategy is proposed whereby the pursuit of a fully coupled climate-chemistry-crop-hydrology model is paralleled by continued use of separate climate and land surface models but with a focus on consistency between the models.
Atmosphere↗
Quantification of physical and biological uncertainty in the simulation of the yield of a tropical crop using present-day and doubled CO2 climates.
The impacts of climate change on crop productivity are often assessed using simulations from a numerical climate model as an input to a crop simulation model. The precision of these predictions reflects the uncertainty in both models. We examined how uncertainty in a climate (HadAM3) and crop General Large-Area Model (GLAM) for annual crops model affects the mean and standard deviation of crop yield simulations in present and doubled carbon dioxide (CO2) climates by perturbation of parameters in each model. The climate sensitivity parameter (gamma, the equilibrium response of global mean surface temperature to doubled CO2) was used to define the control climate. Observed 1966-1989 mean yields of groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.) in India were simulated well by the crop model using the control climate and climates with values of gamma near the control value. The simulations were used to measure the contribution to uncertainty of key crop and climate model parameters. The standard deviation of yield was more affected by perturbation of climate parameters than crop model parameters in both the present-day and doubled CO2 climates. Climate uncertainty was higher in the doubled CO2 climate than in the present-day climate. Crop transpiration efficiency was key to crop model uncertainty in both present-day and doubled CO2 climates. The response of crop development to mean temperature contributed little uncertainty in the present-day simulations but was among the largest contributors under doubled CO2. The ensemble methods used here to quantify physical and biological uncertainty offer a method to improve model estimates of the impacts of climate change.
Arachis↗
Evolution of the realized climatic niche in the genus Arabidopsis (Brassicaceae).
The evolution of the realized climatic niche in the genus Arabidopsis was studied using an almost complete phylogenetic tree based on DNA sequences of the ribosomal internal transcribed spacers. The realized climatic niche (climate space) was determined by the intersections of the distribution ranges of the taxa with climate data and is presented in temperature/precipitation diagrams. A positive correlation exists between the climate spaces of the taxa and their range sizes. The diagrams revealed a core climate; that is, a climate space in which all taxa co-exist. This core climate is almost identical to the most parsimonious reconstruction of the genus' ancestral climate space and may be considered an ancestral state of these characters. Mapping the evolutionary changes occurring in the realized climatic space on the phylogenetic tree from the core climate proved to be the most parsimonious procedure. The character complex is homoplastic; that is, many parallel evolutionary events have occurred in the subclades. With the exception of A. thaliana, which is sister to the other species of the genus and occupies a very large climate space, the late-diverged taxa of the other subclades experienced great evolutionary changes whereas the realized climate space of the taxa that diverged earlier resembles the core climate. The latter also show some parallel contractions in the climate space. It is hypothesized that the diversification of Arabidopsis may have started from small to midsized ranges in a temperate climate.
Arabidopsis↗
AMEE Medical Education Guide No. 23 (Part 1): Curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change in medical education-a unifying perspective.
This paper looks at five focal terms in education - curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change - and the interrelationships and dynamics between and among them. It emphasizes the power and utility of the concept of climate as an operationalization or manifestation of the curriculum and the other three concepts. Ideas pertaining to the theory of climate and its measurement can provide a greater understanding of the medical curriculum. The learning environment is an important determinant of behaviour. Environment is perceived by students and it is perceptions of environment that are related to behaviour. The environment, as perceived, may be designated as climate. It is argued that the climate is the soul and spirit of the medical school environment and curriculum. Students' experiences of the climate of their medical education environment are related to their achievements, satisfaction and success. Measures of educational climate are reviewed and climate measures for medical education are discussed. These should take account of current trends in medical education and curricula. Measures of the climate may subdivide it into different components giving, for example, a separate assessment of so-called Faculty Press, Student Press, Administration Press and Physical or Material Environmental Press. Climate measures can be used in different modes with the same stakeholders. For example, students may be asked to report, first, their perceptions of the actual environment they have experienced and, second, to report on their ideal or preferred environment. The same climate index can be used with different stakeholders giving, for example, staff and student comparisons. In addition to the educational climate of the environment that students inhabit, it is important to consider the organizational climate of the work environment that staff inhabit. This organizational climate is very significant, not only for staff, but for their students, too. The medical school is a learning organization evolving and changing in the illuminative evaluation it makes of its environment and its curriculum through the action research studies of its climate. Considerations of climate in the medical school, along the lines of continuous quality improvement and innovation, are likely to further the medical school as a learning organization with the attendant benefits. Unless medical schools become such learning organizations, their quality of health and their longevity may be threatened.
Journal Article↗
Simulating uncertainty in climate-pest models with fuzzy numbers.
Inputs in climate-pest models are commonly expressed as point estimates ('crisp' numbers), which implies perfect knowledge of the system in study. In reality, however, all model inputs harbor some level of uncertainty. This is particularly true for climate change impact assessments where the inputs (i.e., climate projections) are highly uncertain. In this study, uncertainties in climate projections were expressed as 'fuzzy' numbers; these are uncertain numbers for which one knows that there is a range of possible values and that some values are 'more possible' than others. A generic pest risk model incorporating the combined effects of temperature, soil moisture, and cold stress was implemented in a fuzzy spreadsheet environment and run with three climate scenarios: (1) present climate (control run); (2) crisp climate change; and (3) fuzzy climate change. Under the crisp climate change scenario, winter and summer temperatures and precipitation were altered using best estimates (averaged predictions from the 1995 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC]). Under the fuzzy scenario, climate changes were expressed as triangular fuzzy numbers, utilizing the extremes (lowest and highest predictions from the IPCC report) in addition to the best estimates. Under each scenario, environmental favorability was calculated for six locations in two geographical regions (Central North America and Southern Europe) with two hypothetical pest species having temperate or mediterranean climate requirements. Simulations with the crisp climate change scenario suggested only minor changes in overall environmental favorability compared with the control run. When simulations were conducted with the fuzzy climate change scenario, however, important changes in environmental favorability emerged, particularly in Southern Europe. In that region, the possibility of considerably increased winter precipitation led to increased values of environmental favorability. However, the simulations also showed that this result harbored a very broad range of possible outcomes. The results support the notion that uncertainty in climate change projections must be reduced before reliable impact assessments can be achieved.
Journal Article↗
AMEE Medical Education Guide No. 23 (Part 2): Curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change in medical education - a unifying perspective.
This paper looks at five focal terms in education - curriculum, environment, climate, quality and change - and the interrelationships and dynamics bemeen and among them. It emphasizes the power and utility of the concept of climate as an operationalization or manifetation of the curriculum and the other three concepts. Ideas pertaining w the theory of climate and its measurement can provide a greater understanding of the medical cumadurn. The environment is an impoltant detemzinant of behaviour. Environment is perceived by students and it is perceptions of environment that are related w behaviour. The environment, as perceived, may be designated as climate. It is argued that the climate is the soul and spirit of the medical school environment and curriculum. Students' experiences of the climate of their medical education environment are related w their achievements, sangaction and success. Measures of educational climate are reviewed and the possibilities of new climate measures for medical education are discussed. These should take account of current trends in medical education and curricula. Measures of the climate may subdivide it inw dzfferent components giving, for example, separate assessment of so-called Faculty Press, Student Press, Administration Press and Physical or Material Environmental Press. Climate measures can be used in different modes with the same stakeholders. For example, students may be asked to report, first, their perceptions of the actual environment they have experienced and, second, w report on their ideal or preferred environment. The same climate index can be used with different stakeholders giving, for example, staff and student comparisons. The climate is important for staff as well as for students. The organizational climate that teaching staff experience in the work environment that they inhabit is important for their well-being, and that of their students. The medical school is a learning organization evolving and changing in the illuminative evaluation it makes of its environment and its curriculum through the action research studies of its climate. Consderations of climate in the medical school along the lines of continuous quality improvement and innovation are likely to further the medical school as a learning organization with the attendant benefits. Unless medical schools become such learning organizations their quality of health and their longevity may be threatened.
Journal Article↗
Impacts of climate-driven yield changes on the affordability of healthy diets: a modelling study.
BACKGROUND: Food security is central to global nutrition improvement and public health goals, and healthy diets represent a higher-level aspiration beyond merely avoiding hunger. Climate change poses an increasing threat to food systems by affecting crop yields and food prices. Although climate change-driven risks to hunger have been widely studied, the extent to which climate change undermines the affordability of healthy diets while accounting for socioeconomic responses and regional inequalities remains insufficiently understood. This study aimed to quantify the effects of climate change on the future affordability of healthy diets under alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios. METHODS: We developed an integrated modelling framework that explicitly couples multimodel crop-yield projections with an integrated assessment model (Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM]). Yield responses from six global gridded crop models driven by four climate models were integrated into GCAM, allowing endogenous socioeconomic adjustments such as land-use shifts, production reallocation, and price responses to emerge under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Diet affordability was then assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN's Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet framework across three socioeconomic-climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-6.0). FINDINGS: Under a high-emissions pathway (ie, SSP3-6.0), climate change was projected to render healthy diets unaffordable for a model-mean of 119 million people globally by 2100, even when CO2 fertilisation effects are included, with the upper end of the model ensemble reaching about 1·6 billion people. In contrast, climate-induced affordability losses were found to be negligible under both a low-emissions pathway (ie, SSP1-2.6; -0·3 million) and a medium-emission pathway (SSP2-4.5; +0·2 million). Under a high-emission pathway, model-mean projections indicated that diet costs could increase by up to 12% in the most affected regions by the end of the century. Under medium emissions, cost increases were projected to remain below 4%, whereas under low emissions, affordability changes were projected to be minimum across regions (within approximately 0·5%). Substantial regional disparities emerged, with the largest and most consistent affordability losses concentrated in low-income regions that contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under SSP3-6.0, these disparities persisted particularly in regions of Africa and Asia despite projected three-to-five-fold increases in income over the century, with climate-induced disruptions to food systems increasing the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet through mid-century. INTERPRETATION: Climate change is likely to exacerbate global nutritional inequalities by disproportionately increasing the affordability risks of healthy diets in regions that have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under high-warming scenarios, socioeconomic development alone is insufficient to fully offset these risks, highlighting the structural vulnerability of low-income food systems to climate-driven price shocks. These findings suggest that in the absence of targeted interventions, climate change could continue to undermine progress towards equitable and health-oriented nutrition outcomes. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies Climate Impacts Group; Future of Life Institute; and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.
Journal Article↗
Climate variability and forecasting surface water recovery from acidification: modelling drought-induced sulphate release from wetlands.
Climate-induced drought events have been shown to have a significant influence on sulphate (SO(4)(2-)) export from forested catchments in central Ontario, subsequently delaying recovery of surface waters from acidification. Field and modelling studies have demonstrated that water table drawdown during drought periods promotes oxidation of previously stored (reduced) sulphur (S) compounds in wetlands, with subsequent efflux of SO(4)(2-) upon re-wetting. Although climate-induced changes in processes are generally not integrated into soil-acidification models, MAGIC (Model of Acidification of Groundwater in Catchments) includes a wetland compartment that incorporates redox processes driven by drought events. The potential confounding influence of climate-induced drought events on acidification recovery at Plastic Lake, south-central Ontario (under proposed future S emission reductions) was investigated using MAGIC and two climate scenarios: monthly precipitation and runoff based on long-term means (average-climate scenario), and variable precipitation and runoff based on the past 20 years of observed monthly data (variable-climate scenario). The variable-climate scenario included several periods of summer drought owing to lower than average rainfall and higher then average temperature. Nonetheless, long-term regional trends in precipitation and temperature suggest that the variable-climate scenario may be a conservative estimate of future climate. The average-climate scenario indicated good recovery potential with acid neutralising capacity (ANC) reaching approximately 40 micromol(c)L(-1) by 2020 and 50 micromol(c)L(-1) by 2080. In contrast, the forecasted recovery potential under the variable-climate scenario was very much reduced. By 2080, ANC was forecasted to increase to 2.6 micromol(c)L(-1) from -10.0 micromol(c)L(-1) in 2000. Elevated SO(4)(2-) efflux following drought events (introduced under the variable-climate scenario) has a dramatic impact on simulated future surface water chemistry. The results clearly demonstrate that prediction of future water quality, using models such as MAGIC, should take into account changes or variability in climate as well as acid deposition.
Acid Rain↗
Future carbon balance of China's forests under climate change and increasing CO2.
The possible response of the carbon (C) balance of China's forests to an increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentration and climate change was investigated through a series of simulations using the Integrated Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon (InTEC) model, which explicitly represents the effects of climate, CO(2) concentration, and nitrogen deposition on future C sequestration by forests. Two climate change scenarios (CGCM2-A2 and -B2) were used to drive the model. Simulations showed that China's forests were a C sink in the 1990 s, averaging 189 Tg C yr(-1) (about 13% of the global total). This sink peaks around 2020 and then gradually declines to 33.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100 without climate and CO(2) changes. Effects of pure climate change of CGCM2-A2 and -B2 without allowing CO(2) effects on C assimilation in plants might reduce the average net primary productivity (NPP) of China's forests by 29% and 18% during 2091-2100, respectively. Total soil C stocks might decrease by 16% and 11% during this period. China's forests might broadly act as C sources during 2091-2100, with values of about 50 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the moderate warming of CGCM2-B2 and 50-200 g Cm(-2)yr(-1) under the warmer scenario of CGCM2-A2. An increase in CO(2) might broadly increase future C sequestration of China's forests. However, this CO(2) fertilization effect might decline with time. The CO(2) fertilization effects on NPP by the end of this century are 349.6 and 241.7 Tg C yr(-1) under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. These effects increase by 199.1 and 126.6 Tg C yr(-1) in the first 50 years, and thereafter, by 150.5 and 115.1 Tg C yr(-1) in the second 50 years under CGCM2-A2 and -B2 increase scenarios, respectively. Under a CO(2) increase without climate change, the majority of China's forests would be C sinks during 2091-2100, ranging from 0 to 100 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). The positive effect of CO(2) fertilization on NPP and net ecosystem productivity would be exceeded by the negative effect of climate change after 2050. Under the CGCM2-A2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests may be a small C source of 7.6 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100. Most forests act as C sources of 0-40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Under the CGCM2-B2 climate scenario and with direct CO(2) effects, China's forests might be a small C sink of 10.5 Tg C yr(-1) during 2091-2100, with C sequestration of most forests ranging from 0 to 40 g Cm(-2)yr(-1). Stand age structure plays a more dominant role in determining future C sequestration than CO(2) and climate change. The prediction of future C sequestration of China's forests is very sensitive to the Q(10) value used to estimate maintenance respiration and to soil water availability and less sensitive to N deposition scenario. The results are not yet comprehensive, as no forest disturbance data were available or predicted after 2001. However, the results indicate a range of possible responses of the C balance of China's forests to various scenarios of increase in CO(2) and climate change. These results could be useful for assessing measures to mitigate climate change through reforestation.
Atmosphere↗
Downscaling climate information for local disease mapping.
The study of the impacts of climate on human health requires the interdisciplinary efforts of health professionals, climatologists, biologists, and social scientists to analyze the relationships among physical, biological, ecological, and social systems. As the disease dynamics respond to variations in regional and local climate, climate variability affects every region of the world and the diseases are not necessarily limited to specific regions, so that vectors may become endemic in other regions. Climate data at local level are thus essential to evaluate the dynamics of vector-borne disease through health-climate models and most of the times the climatological databases are not adequate. Climate data at high spatial resolution can be derived by statistical downscaling using historical observations but the method is limited by the availability of historical data at local level. Since the 90s', the statistical interpolation of climate data has been an important priority of the Agrometeorology Group of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), as they are required for agricultural planning and operational activities at the local level. Since 1995, date of the first FAO spatial interpolation software for climate data, more advanced applications have been developed such as SEDI (Satellite Enhanced Data Interpolation) for the downscaling of climate data, LOCCLIM (Local Climate Estimator) and the NEW_LOCCLIM in collaboration with the Deutscher Wetterdienst (German Weather Service) to estimate climatic conditions at locations for which no observations are available. In parallel, an important effort has been made to improve the FAO climate database including at present more than 30,000 stations worldwide and expanding the database from developing countries coverage to global coverage.
Climate↗
RESEARCH: Projected Climate Change Effects on Winterkill in Shallow Lakes in the Northern United States.
/ Each winter, hundreds of ice-covered, shallow lakes in the northern United States are aerated to prevent winterkill, the death of fish due to oxygen depletion under the ice. How will the projected climate warming influence winterkill and the need to artificially aerate lakes? To answer this question, a deterministic, one-dimensional year-round water quality model, which simulates daily dissolved oxygen (DO) profiles and associated water temperatures as well as ice/snow covers on lakes, was applied. Past and projected climate scenarios were investigated. The lake parameters required as model input are surface area, maximum depth, and Secchi depth as a measure of radiation attenuation and trophic state. The model is driven by daily weather data. Weather records from 209 stations in the contiguous United States for the period 1961-1979 were used to represent past climate conditions. The projected climate change due to a doubling of atmospheric CO(2) was obtained from the output of the Canadian Climate Center General Circulation Model. To illustrate the effect of projected climate change on lake DO characteristics, we present herein DO information simulated, respectively, with inputs of past climate conditions (1961-1979) and with a projected 2 x CO(2) climate scenario, as well as differences of those values. Specific parameters obtained were minimum under-ice and lake bottom DO concentration in winter, duration of under-ice anoxic conditions (<0.1 mg/liter) and low DO conditions (<3 mg/liter), and percentage of anoxic and low DO lake volumes during the ice cover period. Under current climate conditions winterkill occurs typically in shallow eutrophic lakes of the northern contiguous United States. Climate warming is projected to eliminate winterkill in these lakes. This would be a positive effect of climate warming. Fish species under ice may still experience periods of stress and zero growth due to low DO (<3 mg/liter) conditions under projected climate warming.
Journal Article↗
Creating safer workplaces: assessing the determinants and role of safety climate.
PROBLEM: Although there has been considerable interest in safety climate, relatively little attention has been given to the factors that determine safety climate or to testing the hypothesized mediating role of safety climate with respect to safety-related outcomes. METHOD: Questionnaire responses were obtained from 2,208 employees of a large national retail chain in 21 different locations. RESULTS: After controlling for demographic variables, three factors: environmental conditions, safety-related policies and programs, and general organizational climate, accounted for 55% of the variance in perceived safety climate. Interestingly, organizational climate made a significant contribution to safety climate, even after controlling for the other more safety-relevant variables. Partial correlations showed that safety policies and programs had the largest observed correlation with safety climate, followed by two of the dimensions of organizational climate (communication and organizational support). Using Baron and Kenny's (J. Pers. Soc. Psychol. 51 (1986) 1173) procedures, the principal effects of the various work situation factors on perceived safety at work were found to be direct rather than mediated by safety climate. Safety climate influenced perceived safety at work, but its role as a mediator was limited. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: These results are discussed in terms of other recent findings on safety climate and the growing interest in understanding management and organizational factors in the context of workplace safety.
Accident Prevention↗