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SLAM: cross-species gene finding and alignment with a generalized pair hidden Markov model.

Comparative-based gene recognition is driven by the principle that conserved regions between related organisms are more likely than divergent regions to be coding. We describe a probabilistic framework for gene structure and alignment that can be used to simultaneously find both the gene structure and alignment of two syntenic genomic regions. A key feature of the method is the ability to enhance gene predictions by finding the best alignment between two syntenic sequences, while at the same time finding biologically meaningful alignments that preserve the correspondence between coding exons. Our probabilistic framework is the generalized pair hidden Markov model, a hybrid of (1). generalized hidden Markov models, which have been used previously for gene finding, and (2). pair hidden Markov models, which have applications to sequence alignment. We have built a gene finding and alignment program called SLAM, which aligns and identifies complete exon/intron structures of genes in two related but unannotated sequences of DNA. SLAM is able to reliably predict gene structures for any suitably related pair of organisms, most notably with fewer false-positive predictions compared to previous methods (examples are provided for Homo sapiens/Mus musculus and Plasmodium falciparum/Plasmodium vivax comparisons). Accuracy is obtained by distinguishing conserved noncoding sequence (CNS) from conserved coding sequence. CNS annotation is a novel feature of SLAM and may be useful for the annotation of UTRs, regulatory elements, and other noncoding features.

Animals↗

Identifying gene and protein mentions in text using conditional random fields.

BACKGROUND: We present a model for tagging gene and protein mentions from text using the probabilistic sequence tagging framework of conditional random fields (CRFs). Conditional random fields model the probability P(t/o) of a tag sequence given an observation sequence directly, and have previously been employed successfully for other tagging tasks. The mechanics of CRFs and their relationship to maximum entropy are discussed in detail. RESULTS: We employ a diverse feature set containing standard orthographic features combined with expert features in the form of gene and biological term lexicons to achieve a precision of 86.4% and recall of 78.7%. An analysis of the contribution of the various features of the model is provided.

Genes↗

Integration of form and motion within a generative model of visual cortex.

One of the challenges faced by the visual system is integrating cues within and across processing streams for inferring scene properties and structure. This is particularly apparent in the inference of object motion, where psychophysical experiments have shown that integration of motion signals, distributed across space, must also be integrated with form cues. This has led several to conclude that there exist mechanisms which enable form cues to 'veto' or completely suppress ambiguous motion signals. We describe a probabilistic approach which uses a generative network model for integrating form and motion cues using the machinery of belief propagation and Bayesian inference. We show, using computer simulations, that motion integration can be mediated via a local, probabilistic representation of contour ownership, which we have previously termed 'direction of figure'. The uncertainty of this inferred form cue is used to modulate the covariance matrix of network nodes representing local motion estimates in the motion stream. We show with results for two sets of stimuli that the model does not completely suppress ambiguous cues, but instead integrates them in a way that is a function of their underlying uncertainty. The result is that the model can account for the continuum of bias seen for motion coherence and perceived object motion in psychophysical experiments.

Bayes Theorem↗

The Gaussian atmospheric transport model and its sensitivity to the joint frequency distribution and parametric variability.

Reconstructed meteorological data are often used in some form of long-term wind trajectory models for estimating the historical impacts of atmospheric emissions. Meteorological data for the straight-line Gaussian plume model are put into a joint frequency distribution, a three-dimensional array describing atmospheric wind direction, speed, and stability. Methods using the Gaussian model and joint frequency distribution inputs provide reasonable estimates of downwind concentration and have been shown to be accurate to within a factor of four. We have used multiple joint frequency distributions and probabilistic techniques to assess the Gaussian plume model and determine concentration-estimate uncertainty and model sensitivity. We examine the straight-line Gaussian model while calculating both sector-averaged and annual-averaged relative concentrations at various downwind distances. The sector-average concentration model was found to be most sensitive to wind speed, followed by horizontal dispersion (sigmaZ), the importance of which increases as stability increases. The Gaussian model is not sensitive to stack height uncertainty. Precision of the frequency data appears to be most important to meteorological inputs when calculations are made for near-field receptors, increasing as stack height increases.

Air Pollutants, Radioactive↗

Finite element-based probabilistic analysis tool for orthopaedic applications.

Orthopaedic implants, as well as other physical systems, contain inherent variability in geometry, material properties, component alignment, and loading conditions. While complex, deterministic finite element (FE) models do not account for the potential impact of variability on performance, probabilistic studies have typically predicted behavior from simplified FE models to achieve practical solution times. The objective of this research was to develop an efficient and versatile probabilistic FE tool to quantify the effect of uncertainty in the design variables on the performance of orthopaedic components under relevant conditions. Key aspects of the computational tool developed include parametric and automated FE model creation for changes in dimensional variables, efficient solution using the advanced mean-value (AMV) reliability method, and identification of the most significant design variables. Two orthopaedic applications are presented to demonstrate the ability of the computational tool to efficiently and accurately represent component performance.

Finite Element Analysis↗

Learning nonlinear image manifolds by global alignment of local linear models.

Appearance-based methods, based on statistical models of the pixel values in an image (region) rather than geometrical object models, are increasingly popular in computer vision. In many applications, the number of degrees of freedom (DOF) in the image generating process is much lower than the number of pixels in the image. If there is a smooth function that maps the DOF to the pixel values, then the images are confined to a low-dimensional manifold embedded in the image space. We propose a method based on probabilistic mixtures of factor analyzers to (1) model the density of images sampled from such manifolds and (2) recover global parameterizations of the manifold. A globally nonlinear probabilistic two-way mapping between coordinates on the manifold and images is obtained by combining several, locally valid, linear mappings. We propose a parameter estimation scheme that improves upon an existing scheme and experimentally compare the presented approach to self-organizing maps, generative topographic mapping, and mixtures of factor analyzers. In addition, we show that the approach also applies to finding mappings between different embeddings of the same manifold.

Algorithms↗

Cost-effectiveness of preventive strategies for women with a BRCA1 or a BRCA2 mutation.

BACKGROUND: For BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation carriers, decision analysis indicates that prophylactic surgery or chemoprevention leads to better survival than surveillance alone. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the preventive strategies that are available to unaffected women carrying a single BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation with high cancer penetrance. DESIGN: Markov modeling with Monte Carlo simulations and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. DATA SOURCES: Breast and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality rates, preference ratings, and costs derived from the literature; the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program; and the Health Care Financing Administration (now the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services). TARGET POPULATION: Unaffected carriers of a single BRCA1 or BRCA2 mutation 35 to 50 years of age. TIME HORIZON: Lifetime. PERSPECTIVE: Health policy, societal. INTERVENTIONS: Tamoxifen, oral contraceptives, bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy, mastectomy, both surgeries, or surveillance. OUTCOME MEASURES: Cost-effectiveness. RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS: For mutation carriers 35 years of age, both surgeries (prophylactic bilateral mastectomy and oophorectomy) had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio over oophorectomy alone of 2352 dollars per life-year for BRCA1 and 100 dollars per life-year for BRCA2. With quality adjustment, oophorectomy dominated all other strategies for BRCA1 and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 2281 dollars per life-year for BRCA2. RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS: Older age at intervention increased the cost-effectiveness of prophylactic mastectomy for BRCA1 mutation carriers to 73,755 dollars per life-year. Varying the penetrance, mortality rates, costs, discount rates, and preferences had minimal effects on outcomes. LIMITATIONS: Results are dependent on the accuracy of model assumptions. CONCLUSION: On the basis of this model, the most cost-effective strategies for BRCA mutation carriers, with and without quality adjustment, were oophorectomy alone and oophorectomy and mastectomy, respectively.

Adult↗

Joint modeling of DNA sequence and physical properties to improve eukaryotic promoter recognition.

We present an approach to integrate physical properties of DNA, such as DNA bendability or GC content, into our probabilistic promoter recognition system McPROMOTER. In the new model, a promoter is represented as a sequence of consecutive segments represented by joint likelihoods for DNA sequence and profiles of physical properties. Sequence likelihoods are modeled with interpolated Markov chains, physical properties with Gaussian distributions. The background uses two joint sequence/profile models for coding and non-coding sequences, each consisting of a mixture of a sense and an anti-sense submodel. On a large Drosophila test set, we achieved a reduction of about 30% of false positives when compared with a model solely based on sequence likelihoods.

Animals↗

Deterministic and probabilistic control of the behavior of rats ingesting liquid diets.

The probability distributions of bouts of licking and pauses between them in rats ingesting sucrose solutions were studied to determine if the durations of these ingestive and noningestive acts were controlled by a deterministic or probabilistic decision rule in the central nervous system. The duration of the bouts of licking could be modeled by a Poisson process, indicating that these bouts were terminated by a probabilistic rule. Three different types of pauses terminated the bouts of licking. Each averaged 0.3, 1.5, or 50-60 s in duration. The two longer pauses could be modeled by a Poisson process, indicating that their termination was also probabilistic in nature. The shorter pauses averaging 0.3 s could not and are more likely deterministically controlled.

Animals↗

Evidence synthesis, parameter correlation and probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

Over the last decade or so, there have been many developments in methods to handle uncertainty in cost-effectiveness studies. In decision modelling, it is widely accepted that there needs to be an assessment of how sensitive the decision is to uncertainty in parameter values. The rationale for probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) is primarily based on a consideration of the needs of decision makers in assessing the consequences of decision uncertainty. In this paper, we highlight some further compelling reasons for adopting probabilistic methods for decision modelling and sensitivity analysis, and specifically for adopting simulation from a Bayesian posterior distribution. Our reasoning is as follows. Firstly, cost-effectiveness analyses need to be based on all the available evidence, not a selected subset, and the uncertainties in the data need to be propagated through the model in order to provide a correct analysis of the uncertainties in the decision. In many--perhaps most--cases the evidence structure requires a statistical analysis that inevitably induces correlations between parameters. Deterministic sensitivity analysis requires that models are run with parameters fixed at 'extreme' values, but where parameter correlation exists it is not possible to identify sets of parameter values that can be considered 'extreme' in a meaningful sense. However, a correct probabilistic analysis can be readily achieved by Monte Carlo sampling from the joint posterior distribution of parameters. In this paper, we review some evidence structures commonly occurring in decision models, where analyses that correctly reflect the uncertainty in the data induce correlations between parameters. Frequently, this is because the evidence base includes information on functions of several parameters. It follows that, if health technology assessments are to be based on a correct analysis of all available data, then probabilistic methods must be used both for sensitivity analysis and for estimation of expected costs and benefits.

Bayes Theorem↗

A graphical approach for evaluating effective connectivity in neural systems.

The identification of effective connectivity from time-series data such as electroencephalogram (EEG) or time-resolved function magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) recordings is an important problem in brain imaging. One commonly used approach to inference effective connectivity is based on vector autoregressive models and the concept of Granger causality. However, this probabilistic concept of causality can lead to spurious causalities in the presence of latent variables. Recently, graphical models have been used to discuss problems of causal inference for multivariate data. In this paper, we extend these concepts to the case of time-series and present a graphical approach for discussing Granger-causal relationships among multiple time-series. In particular, we propose a new graphical representation that allows the characterization of spurious causality and, thus, can be used to investigate spurious causality. The method is demonstrated with concurrent EEG and fMRI recordings which are used to investigate the interrelations between the alpha rhythm in the EEG and blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) responses in the fMRI. The results confirm previous findings on the location of the source of the EEG alpha rhythm.

Brain↗

A spatially constrained mixture model for image segmentation.

Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) constitute a well-known type of probabilistic neural networks. One of their many successful applications is in image segmentation, where spatially constrained mixture models have been trained using the expectation-maximization (EM) framework. In this letter, we elaborate on this method and propose a new methodology for the M-step of the EM algorithm that is based on a novel constrained optimization formulation. Numerical experiments using simulated images illustrate the superior performance of our method in terms of the attained maximum value of the objective function and segmentation accuracy compared to previous implementations of this approach.

Neural Networks, Computer↗

On the stochastic modeling of tracer kinetics.

Virtually all of the mathematical models in current use to describe tracer kinetics are deterministic (non-stochastic). However, in this paper we suggest that the "real world" of tracer kinetics is stochastic, and we formulate a unified one-compartment model structure that incorporates multiple sources of stochasticity. The stochastic models are presented with various combinations of a probabilistic transfer mechanism, a random rate coefficient, and a random initial condition, and the mean value functions and covariances are derived for these models with both time-independent and time-varying rate coefficients. The covariances have unique forms that are helpful in model identification and many of the means are non-exponential functions. Outstanding among the conclusions are 1) a proof that a deterministic model is not always equivalent in an average sense to its stochastic counterpart; 2) the existence of many rich, practical, and realistic alternatives to the exponential decay function; and 3) the notion that models are identifiable from their covariance structure.

Kinetics↗

Generalised reliability characteristics for probabilistic networks.

BACKGROUND: In the medical domain, establishing a diagnosis typically amounts to reasoning about the unobservable truth, based upon a set of indirect observations from diagnostic tests. A diagnostic test may not be perfectly reliable, however. To avoid misdiagnosis, therefore, the reliability characteristics of the test should be taken into account upon reasoning. OBJECTIVE: In this paper, we address the issue of modelling the reliability characteristics of diagnostic tests in a probabilistic network. METHOD: To this end, we study the mathematical foundation of a test's characteristics and collate them with the probabilities required for a probabilistic network. RESULTS: We show that the standard reliability characteristics that are generally available from the literature have to be further detailed and stratified, for example by experts, before they can be included in a network. We demonstrate these modelling issues by means of a real-life probabilistic network in oncology.

Diagnosis, Computer-Assisted↗

Recent advances in the estimation of population exposure to mobile source pollutants.

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed several computer-based exposure models applicable to pollutants which are directly or indirectly linked to mobile sources. Probabilistic versions of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS) Exposure Model (pNEM) have been used to estimate the exposures of urban populations to carbon monoxide and ozone. An enhanced version of the Hazardous Air Pollutant Exposure Model (HAPEM-MS) has been used to develop city-specific estimates of exposure to benzene and other volatile organic compounds emitted by mobile sources. These models are similar in that each contains algorithms that simulate microenvironmental pollutant levels, time/activity patterns, and commuting patterns. The pNEM models also provide estimates of equivalent ventilation rate (EVR), defined as ventilation rate divided by body surface area. This paper summarizes the methods and results of selected research projects conducted since 1991 with the goal of improving pNEM, HAPEM-MS, and similar exposure models applicable to mobile source pollutants. The studies include: (1) the development of an improved algorithm for estimating EVR, (2) a field study to measure ozone levels near roadways and inside vehicles, (3) the development of an algorithm for estimating school commuting patterns, and (4) the construction of a comprehensive database containing time/activity data from ten activity diary studies.

Adult↗

GAMEES: a probabilistic environment for expert systems.

This paper describes GAMEES (Graphical Modelling Environment for Expert Systems), an interactive graphical environment for building and processing Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams. We review the existing systems designed for analogous purposes, and, after a brief introduction to Belief Networks and Influence Diagrams, we describe the graphical interface, discuss algorithms for probabilistic inference on these networks and illustrate the current implementation of GAMEES. The system has been designed for being integrated within wider expert systems and actually it is part of the Therapy Advisor module within an expert system for the management of anemic patients.

Algorithms↗

Is there a code for protein-DNA recognition? Probab(ilistical)ly. . .

Transcriptional regulation of all genes is initiated by the specific binding of regulatory proteins called transcription factors to specific sites on DNA called promoter regions. Transcription factors employ a variety of mechanisms to recognise their DNA target sites. In the last few decades, attempts have been made to describe these mechanisms by general sets of rules and associated models. We give an overview of these models, starting with a historical review of the somewhat controversial issue of a "recognition code" governing protein-DNA interaction. We then present a probabilistic framework in which advantages and disadvantages of various models can be discussed. Finally, we conclude that simplifying assumptions about additivity of interactions are sufficiently justified in many situations (and can be suitably extended in other situations) to allow a unifying concept of a "probabilistic code" for protein-DNA recognition to be defined.

Animals↗

Pathways of urothelial cancer progression suggested by Bayesian network analysis of allelotyping data.

Urothelial cancers of the bladder (UC) comprise biologically heterogeneous group of tumors and display complex genetic alterations. Several genetic changes have been analyzed in detail and some of them are associated with the development and progression of UCs. Only a few studies, however, are focused on identifying the order in which the aberrations may appear during UC tumorigenesis. We have analyzed 123 papillary UCs of the bladder by microsatellites for each of the chromosomal regions that have been suggested to be specifically involved in this type of tumor. We used Bayesian network modeling that enables to uncover multivariate probabilistic dependencies between variables. This methodology applied to LOH data allowed us to discover patterns of losses in UCs. Exploiting the mechanism of probabilistic reasoning in Bayesian networks we suggest primary and secondary events in tumor pathogenesis and reconstruct the possible flow of progression of allelic changes. Losses of chromosome 9p and 9q were found to be the primary events. Losses of 8p and 17p are important events leading to progression of tumor cell clones. The loss of 17p occurs when both abnormalities of chromosome 9 and 8p are already present. There are chromosomal losses related to 8p (1q, 18q, 10q) and some losses like 5q/5p were associated with 17p, leading to the hypothesis of different genetic pathways of UC progression. The abnormalities of chromosome regions 13q, 16q, 6q, 14q, 3p are suggested to be late events being accumulated during the progression of cancer. Although some genetic changes were associated only with the 8p pathway, most secondary genetic changes appear in both pathways. Supplementary material for this article can be found on the International Journal of Cancer website at http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0020-7136/suppmat/index.html.

Alleles↗