Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Probability Learning”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,243 records · Page 69Linked to original sources

Approximate maximum entropy joint feature inference consistent with arbitrary lower-order probability constraints: application to statistical classification

We propose a new learning method for discrete space statistical classifiers. Similar to Chow and Liu (1968) and Cheeseman (1983), we cast classification/inference within the more general framework of estimating the joint probability mass function (p.m.f.) for the (feature vector, class label) pair. Cheeseman's proposal to build the maximum entropy (ME) joint p.m.f. consistent with general lower-order probability constraints is in principle powerful, allowing general dependencies between features. However, enormous learning complexity has severely limited the use of this approach. Alternative models such as Bayesian networks (BNs) require explicit determination of conditional independencies. These may be difficult to assess given limited data. Here we propose an approximate ME method, which, like previous methods, incorporates general constraints while retaining quite tractable learning. The new method restricts joint p.m.f. support during learning to a small subset of the full feature space. Classification gains are realized over dependence trees, tree-augmented naive Bayes networks, BNs trained by the Kutato algorithm, and multilayer perceptrons. Extensions to more general inference problems are indicated. We also propose a novel exact inference method when there are several missing features.

Journal Article↗

Comparison of basic assumptions embedded in learning models for experience-based decision making.

The present study examined basic assumptions embedded in learning models for predicting behavior in decisions based on experience. In such decisions, the probabilities and payoffs are initially unknown and are learned from repeated choice with payoff feedback. We examined combinations of two rules for updating past experience with new payoff feedback and of two choice rule assumptions for mapping experience onto choices. The combination of these assumptions produced four classes of models that were systematically compared. Two methods were employed to evaluate the success of learning models for approximating players' choices: One was based on estimating parameters from each person's data to maximize the prediction of choices one step ahead, conditioned by the observed past history of feedback. The second was based on making a priori predictions for the entire sequence of choices using parameters estimated from a separate experiment. The results indicated the advantage of a class of models incorporating decay of previous experience, whereas the ranking of choice rules depended on the evaluation method used.

Adult↗

Spotlight failure effect in exogenous orienting.

Many experimental results about spatial attention have been explained by assuming the existence of an attentional "spotlight" which can move from one location in visual space to another. Such an account has been recently challenged by findings which show the influence of nonspatial factors in spatial attention. In particular, the so-called "spotlight failure" effect refers to the influence of the probability of occurrence of different stimuli. However, such an effect has only been reported in the case of endogenous (or central) orientation, rather than on exogenous (or peripheral) orienting. We present evidence showing that the spotlight failure effect can be obtained with exogenous orienting, even at a short SOA (100 ms). Besides, experimental instructions can modulate the effect, which agrees with theoretical accounts proposing that top-down factors can influence attentional capture.

Adult↗

Striatal dopamine and learning strategy-an (123)I-FP-CIT SPECT study.

UNLABELLED: Patients with Parkinson's disease (PD) have difficulty in processing learning tasks that lack external guidelines and, consequently, necessitate the subjects to generate their own problem-solving strategy. While the contribution of striatal dopaminergic deficiency to PD-specific motor symptoms is well established, its role in the PD-characteristic deviant learning style remains unclear. The aim of this study was to assess the relation between striatal dopamine activity as revealed by single photon emission computed tomography (SPECT) with (123)I-FP-CIT, a ligand for the dopamine transporter (DaT), and type of learning strategy, as identified by the California Verbal Learning Task (CVLT) in 19 patients with probable PD. The results showed a robust inverse correlation between striatal dopamine DaT binding and the externally guided, serial learning strategy: the lower the DaT in caudate nucleus as well as in putamen, the more the patient group appeared to rely on externally structured learning. Additionally, a significant positive correlation was found between caudatal DaT activity and the internally generated, semantic learning strategy. Unlike these strategic learning characteristics, IQ equivalent and recall total score appeared to vary independently from striatal DaT availability. CONCLUSION: our findings provide direct evidence that striatal dopaminergic activity is specifically involved in the regulation of strategic learning processes.

Adult↗

Type 2 tasks in the theory of signal detectability: discrimination between correct and incorrect decisions.

It has been known for over 40 years that there are two fundamentally different kinds of detection tasks in the theory of signal detectability. The Type 1 task is to distinguish between events defined independently of the observer; the Type 2 task is to distinguish between one's own correct and incorrect decisions about those Type 1 events. For the Type 1 task, the behavior of the detector can be summarized by the traditional receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. This curve can be compared with a theoretical ROC curve, which can be generated from overlapping probability functions conditional on the Type 1 events on an appropriate decision axis. We show how to derive the probability functions underlying Type 2 decisions from those for the Type 1 task. ROC curves and the usual measures of performance are readily obtained from those Type 2 functions, and some relationships among various Type 1 and Type 2 performance measures are presented. We discuss the relationship between Type 1 and Type 2 confidence ratings and caution against the practice of presenting transformed Type 2 ratings as empirical Type 1 ratings.

Cues↗

Construction of diagnostic rules based on assessments of subjects.

This paper is based on assessments of subjects which are not defined by formal procedures. Logically structured assignment rules are constructed which are stable over time and which have a low number of disagreements with the assessments of the subjects. Recent results obtained from a computational learning theory show that the proposed construction of rules leads with high probability to rules with similar performances on large enough learning and validation sets of subjects. The construction of a set of stable rules is illustrated by using as a case study the psychophysiological, personality and speech behaviour data of a repeated-measures Type A behaviour study. This case study is also used for a discussion of the issue of biased ratings in the presence of assessments which are not defined by formal procedures.

Adult↗

A self-organizing neural system for learning to recognize textured scenes.

A self-organizing ARTEX model is developed to categorize and classify textured image regions. ARTEX specializes the FACADE model of how the visual cortex sees, and the ART model of how temporal and prefrontal cortices interact with the hippocampal system to learn visual recognition categories and their names. FACADE processing generates a vector of boundary and surface properties, notably texture and brightness properties, by utilizing multi-scale filtering, competition, and diffusive filling-in. Its context-sensitive local measures of textured scenes can be used to recognize scenic properties that gradually change across space, as well as abrupt texture boundaries. ART incrementally learns recognition categories that classify FACADE output vectors, class names of these categories, and their probabilities. Top-down expectations within ART encode learned prototypes that pay attention to expected visual features. When novel visual information creates a poor match with the best existing category prototype, a memory search selects a new category with which classify the novel data. ARTEX is compared with psychophysical data, and is bench marked on classification of natural textures and synthetic aperture radar images. It outperforms state-of-the-art systems that use rule-based, backpropagation, and K-nearest neighbor classifiers.

Discrimination, Psychological↗

Error detection processes during observational learning.

The purpose of this experiment was to determine whether a faded knowledge of results (KR) frequency during observation of a model's performance enhanced error detection capabilities. During the observation phase, participants observed a model performing a timing task and received KR about the model's performance on each trial or on one of two trials. Delayed retention and transfer tests were used to assess the observer's ability to detect error in the model's performance and in the participant's performance while physically practicing the task. Results indicated a beneficial effect of a reduced KR frequency for performance stability and the ability to detect errors in both the model and the participant's own performance. The results suggest that aspects of the processing mechanism(s) developed in observational learning and related to KR are probably similar to those developed through physical practice.

Adolescent↗

Are covariation biases attributable to a priori expectancy biases?

Illusory correlation experiments indicate that people overestimate the association between random presentations of snake slides and shock, but do not overestimate the association between random presentations of slides of damaged and exposed electric outlets (DEEOs) and shock. To investigate whether reports of covariation biases might be attributable to expectancy biases, we had Ss rate the a priori probabilities with which they would expect slides of snakes (or DEEOs), flowers, and mushrooms to be paired with shock, a tone, or nothing. In Study 1, Ss reported a pattern of a priori slide/outcome probability estimates that is nearly identical to that reported by Ss who have just undergone an illusory correlation procedure involving phylogenetic fear-relevant stimuli (e.g. snakes). Therefore, postexperimental estimates of covariation involving such stimuli appear at least partly attributable to pre-experimental expectancy biases rather than solely attributable to on-line processing biases. Study 2 revealed that Ss also display inflated a priori probability estimates for DEEO slides and shock, unlike Ss who have just undergone an illusory correlation procedure involving such stimuli. Taken together, these studies suggest that random slide/outcome pairings easily abolish pre-experimental expectancy biases for ontogenetic, but not phylogenetic, fear-relevant stimuli.

Adult↗

Attentional cues in real scenes, saccadic targeting, and Bayesian priors.

Performance finding a target improves when artificial cues direct covert attention to the target's probable location or locations, but how do predictive cues help observers search for objects in real scenes? Controlling for target detectability and retinal eccentricity, we recorded observers' first saccades during search for objects that appeared in expected and unexpected locations within real scenes. As has been found with synthetic images and cues, accuracy of first saccades was significantly higher when the target appeared at an expected location rather than an unexpected location. Observers' saccades with target-absent images make it possible to distinguish two mechanisms that might mediate this effect: limited attentional resources versus differential weighting of information (Bayesian priors). Endpoints of first saccades in target-absent images were significantly closer to the expected than the unexpected locations, a result consistent with the differential-weighting model and inconsistent with limited resources being the sole mechanism underlying the effect.

Attention↗

An influence diagram for assessing GVHD prophylaxis after bone marrow transplantation in children.

Graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) represents one of the major complications of allogeneic bone marrow transplantation (BMT). Nevertheless, the occurrence of mild GVHD could be desirable in high-risk leukemic patients, due to a relapse-preventing effect known as the graft-versus-leukemia (GVL) effect. Given that different prophylactic interventions are available to prevent GVHD development, the decision problem consists in assessing both type and dosage of the drugs in order to avoid or induce GVHD, according to the specific patient's condition. The decision problem can be represented and solved by using an influence diagram. The choice of this formalism allows using new available methods for building and updating the model of the decision problem. The qualitative structure of the model and the conditional probabilities were first derived by combining literature results with a medical expert's judgement. More specifically, probabilities were initially assigned as ranges rather than as point values. Then, conditional probabilities were updated, by using a learning algorithm, as new cases became available. The authors analyzed 50 cases of pediatric patients affected by either malignant or nonmalignant diseases, undergoing BMT and receiving GVHD prophylaxis. They used the first 25 cases to adjust the initially assigned conditional probabilities, then checked the model obtained on the remaining patients. The overall performance for GVHD prediction was about 80%.

Algorithms↗

TEMPORALLY SPACED RESPONDING BY PIGEONS: DEVELOPMENT AND EFFECTS OF DEPRIVATION AND EXTINCTION.

In the first five or six sessions on a DRL 20-sec schedule of reinforcement there developed a stable performance characterized by a relatively constant conditional probability of occurrence (IRTs/op) of interresponse times (IRTs) of durations greater than 5 or 6 sec. Extinction and the level of deprivation changed both the overall rate of responding and the form of the function relating the duration of an IRT to its value of IRTs/op. The value of IRTs/op decreased more rapidly for short than for longer IRTs, resulting in the emergence of a finer discrimination of IRT duration.

Animals↗

Resistance to change of forgetting functions and response rates.

This experiment examined the effects of reinforcement probability on resistance to change of remembering and response rate. Pigeons responded on a two-component multiple schedule in which completion of a variable-interval 20-s schedule produced delayed matching-to-sample trials in both components. Each session included four delays (0.1 s, 2 s, 4 s, and 8 s) between sample termination and presentation of comparison stimuli in both components. The two components differed in the probability of reinforcement arranged for correct matches (i.e., rich, p = .9; lean, p = .1). Response rates during the variable-interval portion of the procedure were higher in the rich component during baseline and more resistant to the disruptive effects of intercomponent food and extinction. Forgetting functions were constructed by examining matching accuracy as a function of delay duration. Baseline accuracy was higher in the rich component than in the lean component as measured by differences in the gamma-intercept of the forgetting functions (i.e., initial discrimination), rather than from differences in the slope of the forgetting function (i.e., rate of forgetting). Intercomponent food increased the rate of forgetting relatively more in the lean component than in the rich component, but initial discrimination was not systematically affected. Extinction reduced initial discrimination relatively more in the lean component than in the rich component, but did not systematically affect rate of forgetting. These results are consistent with our previous data suggesting that, as for response rate, accuracy and resistance to change of discriminating are positively related to rate of reinforcement. These data also suggest that the disruptability of remembering depends on the conditions of reinforcement, but the way in which remembering is disrupted depends on the nature of the disruptor.

Animals↗

How advances in machine learning drive early detection and risk prediction of early-onset colorectal cancer.

Early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC), defined as colorectal cancer diagnosed before age 50, is rising across high- and middle-income settings whilst organised screening stays anchored to older age thresholds. Blood-based liquid biopsy, combined with machine learning, is the most plausible route to early detection in this group because it does not depend on bowel preparation, endoscopy capacity, or adherence to stool-based testing. The gap is structural: incidence climbs fastest in the population below the age at which any guideline-endorsed modality is offered. The analytical challenge is that early-stage tumour-derived signals in plasma are low in abundance and distributed across heterogeneous molecular layers: circulating tumour DNA mutations, aberrant methylation, cfDNA fragmentomics, and small non-coding RNA. Machine learning converts these into a single calibrated probability. This review examines where artificial intelligence (AI)-driven liquid biopsy genuinely adds diagnostic value in EOCRC, distinguishes components in which learned models are decorative from those in which they are mechanistically necessary, and identifies the validation deficit separating research cohorts from deployable clinical tools. It summarises the first-generation tools used clinically for early detection and post-treatment monitoring, then considers analytes from exosome-bound microRNAs to long-read whole-genome sequencing of circulating plasma DNA, which reads cytosine modification natively, resolves methylation and fragmentation on single molecules, and characterises structural events short reads cannot anchor. Any analyte can feed a learned model, but more diverse input yields better discrimination. The central argument is that approved, guideline-included blood tests were validated in populations aged 45 and above, and their performance in younger patients cannot be assumed.

cfDNA fragmentomics↗

The effect of anterior thalamic nuclei lesions upon conditioned avoidance responses in rat.

Three groups each of 7 hooded rats had bilateral symmetric lesions of the n. anterior ventralis the n. anterior medialis and n. anterior dorsalis and were compared to two groups of 7 nonoperated control rats. After the lesions no changes in spontaneous behavior, sensory or motor functions, body weight, reaction type and thresholds to painful footshocks were observed. The postoperative acquisition of a one-way conditioned avoidance response in a simple runway task was significantly retarded in ventral and medial rats and impossible in dorsal rats. While escape reactions were not impaired, lesioned rats had troubles passing the start door early after the onset of the conditioned stimulus. During alternation training of avoidance responses, the ventral and the medial rats preferred one side of the Y-maze. When they learned to run to the illuminated exit as a high-probability stimulus after several sessions, the entire stereotype became more unstable and the percentage of avoidance responses decreased. None of the lesioned rats escaped shock in a pole-climbing test, which was characterized by very low probability of correct response in the first session. These anterior thalamic nuclei are part of the Papez circuit which may be the main substrate for learning and retrieval of problems with low probability.

Animals↗

Connectionism and the learning of probabilistic concepts.

Three experiments examine the claim of Gluck and Bower (1986, 1988a, 1988b) that the learning of medical concepts can be simulated by a connectionist network in which the symptoms are the input and the diagnosis is the output. The first experiment replicates the main finding of Gluck and Bower. In this experiment, subjects were required to estimate the probability of each of two diseases, given a particular target symptom. In fact these two probabilities were identical, but because one illness was more common than the other, the target symptom was a better predictor of the rare disease than of the common disease. Contrary to a normative probability judgement account, subjects were biased in that they judged the probability of the rare disease given the target symptom to be greater than the probability of the common disease given the target symptom. Gluck and Bower argued that such a result was predicted by a connectionist network using the Rescorla-Wagner learning rule, but it is argued that Gluck and Bower's network simulation was not appropriate for the experiment they had performed. In fact, it appeared that the connectionist network failed to predict the bias in the subjects' probability estimates. However, this conclusion rests on an assumption that Gluck and Bower implicitly made. They arranged for P(rare disease/target symptom) and P(common disease/target symptom) to be identical across all trials on which the target symptom occurred, both on its own and with other symptoms present. Gluck and Bower assumed that the subjects were estimating these probabilities. But the results of the second experiment showed instead that the subjects were estimating the probability of each disease given only the target symptom. In the final experiment the design was changed so that this problem might be circumvented. In this experiment, again, the subjects were biased in their probability judgements exactly as the connectionist network predicted. Thus, finally, evidence was found which was compatible with the network model but not with a normative account, but this was true only if the network did not include a layer of hidden units.

Adult↗