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The Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program (CHIRPP) in the UK: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the feasibility, strengths and weaknesses, and preventive utility of the Canadian Hospitals Injury Reporting and Prevention Program (CHIRPP) in a paediatric setting in the UK. DESIGN: Implementation and operational evaluation of CHIRPP. SETTING: A paediatric accident and emergency department in Glasgow, Scotland, UK. METHODS: CHIRPP forms were used to collect and analyse data on the circumstances, mechanisms, and types of injuries in 2516 children (age range 0-13 years) presenting to the accident and emergency department over the period of 1 April 1993 to 31 January 1995. The strengths and weaknesses of CHIRPP were assessed by direct observation, discussion with staff, operation of the CHIRPP software, and scrutiny of the output. RESULTS: After initial technical problems, CHIRPP ran smoothly. Although parental compliance was high, staff compliance was low, and this resulted in a low capture rate. Tabulations indicated the potential of the system for identifying both hazardous environments and vulnerable population subgroups at whom specific preventive measures can be targeted. Specific proposals for enhancing the efficiency and preventive utility of CHIRPP in this setting were formulated. CONCLUSIONS: CHIRPP offers hospitals, public health departments, and government agencies in the UK a promising tool for planning national, regional, and local injury prevention.

Accident Prevention↗

Identifying and tracing a population at risk: the DESAD Project experience.

In recent years, medical record review has been used to alert patients who have received drugs or treatments that have newly discovered side-effects. The experience of the national cooperative Diethylstilbestrol-Adenosis (DESAD) Project in identifying and notifying women exposed in utero to diethylstilbestrol (DES) shows this to be a difficult task. In order to identify 4,830 exposed women, 221,245 charts were reviewed. Detailed tracing data for one of the centers participating in the DESAD Project indicated that only 85 per cent of the 690 DES-exposed women identified at that center could be notified of exposure. The DESAD Project experience has led to recommendations for standardized prenatal records and drug lists, long-term storage of medical records, new legal guidelines, and improved recording of follow-up information, taking into account issues of privacy.

Adolescent↗

How accurate are the U.S. Bureau of the Census projections of total live births.

"The accuracy of total live birth forecasts issued by the U.S. Bureau of the Census was analysed. Forecast accuracy has not improved significantly since 1950. Further, the forecasts are not more accurate than several naive alternatives. Moving from a period methodology to a cohort methodology improved forecast accuracy for certain forecasts. [It is demonstrated that] the Bureau of the Census systematically underestimated total births in the upswing and overestimated in the downswing."

Americas↗

Future trends in international migration.

The author evaluates projections by the World Bank that show a significant decline in international migration over the next decade. "This projection not only assumes a narrowing of the welfare gap between industrialised and developing countries. It also sets out from the premise that potential migrants react to changes in the economic and social conditions in their home countries with more or less constant (negative) migration elasticities. The following article shows that there is reason to question the validity of this assumption."

Demography↗

The community-oriented primary care experience in the United kingdom.

The UK National Health Service has long delivered public health programs through primary care. However, attempts to promote Sidney Kark's model of community-oriented primary care (COPC), based on general practice populations, have made only limited headway. Recent policy developments give COPC new resonance. Currently, primary care trusts are assuming responsibility for improving the health of the populations they serve, and personal medical service pilots are tailoring primary care to local needs under local contracts. COPC has yielded training packages and frameworks that can assist these new organizations in developing public health skills and understanding among a wide range of primary care professionals.

Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System↗

The application of age, period and cohort models to predict Swiss cancer mortality.

In order to project trends in mortality from 11 major cancer sites in Switzerland to the end of the current century, a log-linear Poisson age/period/cohort model with arbitrary constraints on the parameters was used, fitted to the observed rates for the period 1950-84. One projection was based on the assumption of a total absence of change in the effect of period, the second was based on a linear extrapolation of the logarithms of the seven known periods, and the third was related to a series of a priori external epidemiological hypotheses, whenever available. For instance, coefficients below unity were used for lung and other tobacco-related neoplasms in men, since some decline in exposure to tobacco carcinogens was observed among Swiss men, and above unity for women since the prevalence of smoking has risen among successive generations of women. Although the method has limitations and uncertainties, several qualitative indications could be derived from this exercise. For instance, the various models suggest that the age-standardized mortality from oral cancer in men will probably increase up to the end of the century, even under the optimistic assumption of an appreciable decline in smoking, while cancer of the oesophagus is likely to level-off around current values, as other tobacco-related neoplasms, prostate cancer in men, and breast cancer in women will probably do. Some steady decline is predicted by various models fitted to the incidence of stomach and intestinal cancer in both sexes, and to ovarian cancer. Lung cancer will continue to rise in women but will stop rising in men, and it will possibly fall if the hypothesis of a decline in exposure to tobacco carcinogens proves correct. Although any prediction has, by definition, substantial difficulties and uncertainties, projections of cancer mortality in the near future are based on a substantial amount of information already available, and may offer valuable information for epidemiological inferences and health planning purposes.

Adult↗

Relationship between expressed HIV/AIDS-related stigma and HIV-beliefs/knowledge and behaviour in families of HIV infected children in Kenya.

OBJECTIVES: To quantify expressed stigma in clients of the Kangemi program for HIV+ children, and to characterize the association between stigma and other population characteristics. METHODS: By means of a household survey we created a stigma index and indices for other social and knowledge domains that influence HIV-related healthcare. We used chi2, anova, and correlation to identify associations between domains. RESULTS: The mean (+/-SD) expressed stigma on a six points scale (6 = least stigma) was 3.65 +/- 1.64. Composite scores on knowledge about AIDS were skewed toward more knowledge; and analysis of individual knowledge items indicates that most respondents reject erroneous traditional beliefs and myths about the causes and transmission routes of AIDS. Respondents who were younger, had never married, and had less education expressed greater stigma. Differences in stigma were associated with poor knowledge about AIDS and negative attitudes toward testing, but not with gender or tribal affiliation. Condom use at last intercourse, unrelated to stigma, was only 40% (n = 218). CONCLUSIONS: While this population has good knowledge about AIDS and appraises risks realistically, it fails to reduce these risks. Associations between stigma and other domains can inform interventions that improve HIV care and mitigate spread of HIV.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Evaluation of a cancer awareness campaign: experience with a selected population in Karachi.

The incidence and prevalence of cancer is rapidly increasing in both developed and developing countries. The most common cancers reported in Pakistan are breast and cervical cancers in females, and lung and oral cancers in males. Public awareness of cancer can play a vital role in its prevention, early diagnosis and treatment. A pilot survey conducted by the Cancer Support Group (CSG) of Aga Khan University Hospital from 2001 till 2004 to gauge the public awareness of cancer in Pakistan revealed that people were afraid of cancer and had little knowledge about its prevention and early detection. The survey also identified several social, religious and cultural misconceptions which hinder cancer screening and treatment. In order to create awareness amongst the general public, especially the young generation, members of the CSG also organized fifteen health education sessions in schools, colleges, hospitals and communities in Karachi which were attended by more than 1,500 people. With the help of the results generated in the pilot project, education material was designed and developed for these health education sessions. Ten percent of the participants contacted CSG members for some unusual finding after administering a self screening tests taught in these sessions. This indicates the importance of holding cancer awareness sessions and the positive feedback obtained suggests that people would like to have cancer awareness sessions continued.

Adolescent↗

Age cohort analysis of the 20th century decline in U.S. farm numbers.

"The demographic component of the decline in U.S. farm numbers is analysed by tracking the size of farm operator age cohorts.... Cohort profiles indicate an inverted U-shape in the relationship between farm numbers and cohort age. Successive cohorts have been smaller than their predecessors, and withdrawal rates of older operators have fallen in recent years. Projections based on entry-withdrawal patterns for 1987-1992 suggest decline in farm numbers from 1.93 million in 1992 to 1.48 million in 2002 and 1.29 million in 2007. Imbalance between withdrawing older operators and younger new entrants could encourage a broadening of the pool of farm entrants and changes in farm ownership, operating and financing arrangements."

Age Factors↗

[[The method for projecting households by family type in terms of headship cohort change--Part 2. Projecting marital status and headship rates by family type in household formation stage]].

"This article is Part 2 of the study on the method for projecting households [in Japan] by family type.... Part 1 was on modelling the transition process among different family types of households headed by [persons] over 35 years old, and on the method for projecting households by family type using the transition model.... Part 2 focuses on the method for projecting households in the formation stage headed by [those] under 34 years old.... Among projection outcomes, the proportion never married of males aged 30-34 goes up from 32.8 per cent to 37.3 per cent between 1990 and 2010, and the proportion never married of females aged 25-29 from 40.4 per cent to 47.1 per cent. [The] tendency of late marriage will continue to the beginning of the twenty-first century." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Asia↗

Guidance for the planning, implementation and evaluation of oral health care demonstration projects for under-served populations.

Recently, it has been proposed that in planning oral health care services in non-established market economy (non-EME) countries, and for under- served communities throughout the world, high priority be given to a basic package of oral care (BPOC). This package contains three key components: emergency care (oral urgent treatment--OUT), exposure to appropriate fluoride (affordable fluoride toothpaste--AFT) and appropriate treatment technology (atraumatic restorative treatment--ART). These three components are embedded in the supporting context of oral health promotion (OHP). There is a lack of experience in implementing BPOC and besides, there is not much known about the effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability of the proposed components of BPOC, either individually or as a package, under local conditions. An effective approach in one setting may not be successful in another setting due to many factors such as a lack of acceptability by the community or local government or because of insufficient financial and human resources. It is therefore recommended to consider small scale demonstration projects for effectiveness, efficiency and sustainability assessments of the various components of BPOC before embarking on large scale programmes. The purpose of this paper is to highlight the different aspects related to the planning, implementation and evaluation of oral health demonstration projects for under-served communities.

Attitude to Health↗

Noncompliance among oral contraceptive acceptors in rural Bangladesh.

The levels of noncompliance among 175 oral contraceptive acceptors in a rural area of Bangladesh were monitored for three to four months. Unexpectedly high levels of noncompliance were observed, including both overconsumption and underconsumption of oral contraceptive pills. Although the study was designed to investigate only the levels of noncompliance and not the causes and consequences of noncompliance, some useful indications of the factors associated with noncompliance were obtained. The results indicate that noncompliance is a significant factor in family planning programs and, as such, warrants further in-depth investigation.

Bangladesh↗

The Indian Genome Variation database (IGVdb): a project overview.

Indian population, comprising of more than a billion people, consists of 4693 communities with several thousands of endogamous groups, 325 functioning languages and 25 scripts. To address the questions related to ethnic diversity, migrations, founder populations, predisposition to complex disorders or pharmacogenomics, one needs to understand the diversity and relatedness at the genetic level in such a diverse population. In this backdrop, six constituent laboratories of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR), with funding from the Government of India, initiated a network program on predictive medicine using repeats and single nucleotide polymorphisms. The Indian Genome Variation (IGV) consortium aims to provide data on validated SNPs and repeats, both novel and reported, along with gene duplications, in over a thousand genes, in 15,000 individuals drawn from Indian subpopulations. These genes have been selected on the basis of their relevance as functional and positional candidates in many common diseases including genes relevant to pharmacogenomics. This is the first large-scale comprehensive study of the structure of the Indian population with wide-reaching implications. A comprehensive platform for Indian Genome Variation (IGV) data management, analysis and creation of IGVdb portal has also been developed. The samples are being collected following ethical guidelines of Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) and Department of Biotechnology (DBT), India. This paper reveals the structure of the IGV project highlighting its various aspects like genesis, objectives, strategies for selection of genes, identification of the Indian subpopulations, collection of samples and discovery and validation of genetic markers, data analysis and monitoring as well as the project's data release policy.

Databases, Genetic↗

Public health surveillance and incidence of adulthood Guillain-Barré syndrome in Spain, 1998-1999: the view from a sentinel network of neurologists.

Temporal variation in Guillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) warrants monitoring in certain situations. This study sought to describe a public-health-based GBS surveillance service in Spain and conduct pilot surveillance in the period 1998-1999. Neurologists from 11 hospitals countrywide, serving a population of 3.9 million, reported all patients, ages 20 years or over, admitted to hospital with suspected GBS. Cases that did not belong to the designated hospital catchment area or failed to fulfill diagnostic criteria after follow- up were excluded. Reported monthly incidence was compared against predicted incidence obtained from retrospective data (1985-1997) using a reported method based on 97.5% percentile values. Alarm thresholds for 2000 onwards were obtained by applying the same method to the updated 1985-1999 series. During the 2-year period, 98 GBS cases were reported, yielding an overall age-adjusted incidence of 1.26 per 100 000 population, with a breakdown by sex of 1.83 for males and 0.76 for females. Monthly incidence remained below or was similar to the corresponding threshold limit value. Seasonality with highest incidence in winter was more pronounced in the elderly. Preceding events, mainly respiratory infections, were identified in 71% of patients. Pilot two-year GBS surveillance in Spain resulted neither in alarm nor in preventive measures. Adult GBS incidence in Spain might be monitored by a surveillance system set up at short notice when a possible threat is perceived. A monthly incidence of over 3 per 100 000 person-years in the population aged 20 years or older would exceed threshold values.

Adult↗

[Prevalence of obesity, hypertension and smoking in patients with the sleep apnea syndrome--comparison with the Czech population].

BACKGROUND: Sleep apnoea syndrome (SAS) is an serious disease increasing morbidity and mortality. SAS is often associated with cardiovascular diseases. This retrospective study is focused on the prevalence of selected risk factors of ischemic heart disease. METHODS AND RESULTS: The comparison of BMI, prevalence of obesity, hypertension and smoking was performed in 356 patients with SAS (287 men, 69 women, age 25-64 years) and 2353 persons--representing 1% of Czech population (WHO project MONICA). T-test was used for statistical analysis of BMI and chi-square test for obesity, hypertension and smoking prevalence. Groups of patients and the MONICA group were stratified by age into 4 subgroups. Statistical significant difference was found in BMI and obesity prevalence in men in all age subgroups. Men aged 35-64 years differed in systemic hypertension prevalence (p < 0.001) and in age subgroups of 45-64 years in smoking prevalence (p < 0.001). Females aged subgroups of 35-54 years differed significantly in BMI (p < 0.001) and in age subgroups of 45-54 years in hypertension (p < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: Higher prevalence of obesity, hypertension, and smoking were found in patients with SAS compared to non-selected Czech population.

Adult↗

Pilot test for linking population-based cancer registries with CCG/POG pediatric registries.

An estimated 8,600 new cases of cancer are expected to be diagnosed in children aged 0-14 in the United States during 2001. Childhood cancer rates vary considerably by age with rates of 20.1 cases/100,000 for ages 0-4, 10.8 cases/100,000 for ages 5-9, 12.0 cases/100,000 for ages 10-14, and 19.6 cases/100,000 for ages 15-19. While the overall cancer mortality rate among children aged 0-14 declined by an average 2.9% per year during the time period 1975-1998, the overall incident rate, as measured by the National Cancer Institute's (NCI) Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) Program, increased by an average 0.8% per year. Concern over the increasing incidence rate has led to increasing public demands for research on the causes of childhood cancer and for research on patterns of care among children and adolescents with cancer. Several groups have proposed that a national childhood cancer registry would enhance research opportunities. The NCI is proceeding to develop a National Network for Research on Cancer in Children which among other components would include merging databases of the NCI's Childhood Cancer Group (CCG) and the Pediatric Oncology Group (POG) to create a National Childhood Cancer Registry (NCCR). However, several studies have documented that the CCG and POG do not enroll all children with cancer in the US, and that they enroll even fewer adolescents. A recent tabulation of the California Cancer Registry (CCR) database for cases diagnosed in 1996 showed that 74.6% of childhood cancer cases among ages 0-14 were reported to the CCR by CCG/POG facilities but only 37.2% of cases among ages 15-19 were reported by those same facilities. Therefore, it is well recognized that the NCCR will need to collaborate with state and SEER population-based cancer registries in order to obtain complete case ascertainment. Similarly, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) National Program of Cancer Registries (NPCR) has been investigating methods for states to: (1) efficiently collect incident cancer case reports including childhood and adolescent cancers, (2) validate completeness of state case ascertainment, and (3) increase the research potential for NPCR-collected data.

Adolescent↗

Individual effects of estrogens on a marine fish, Cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), extrapolated to the population level.

Endocrine-disrupting chemicals (EDCs) in the environment may alter the population dynamics of wildlife by affecting reproductive output. This study describes a matrix modeling approach to link laboratory studies on endocrine disruption with potential ecological effects. The experimental model used is cunner (Tautogolabrus adspersus), which inhabit estuarine and marine areas where sewage treatment and other discharges containing estrogenic EDCs are likely. To test the effects of estrogenic exposures on fecundity, reproductively active cunner were exposed in three separate experiments by implanting 17beta-estradiol, estrone, or 17alpha-ethynylestradiol subcutaneously in a slow-release matrix at 0.05, 0.5, and 2.5 mg/kg. Egg production per gram female and egg viability were determined daily for a 1-week preexposure period and then for a 2-week exposure period. The mean number of eggs produced per gram female and egg viability (%) were calculated for the initial preexposure period and the 2-week exposure period for each experiment. Significant changes were observed in egg production per gram female in the high-17beta-estradiol treatment (P = 0.07) and high-17alpha-ethynylestradiol treatment (P = 0.04). A significant increase was observed in egg viability (%) in the low-17alpha-ethynylestradiol treatment (39.0%; P < or = 0.05). Cunner population response was projected using an age-structured matrix population model parameterized with published survival and fecundity estimates. By incorporating reproductive response data from laboratory exposures, model projections were used to describe how reproductive changes by estrogen treatment could alter cunner population growth rate (lambda). Published by Elsevier Inc.

Animals↗

Surveillance techniques for respiratory illness.

The data presented represent a pilot study to determine the most efficient method of detecting the frequency and severity of respiratory illnesses in a defined population of children. Home surveillance telephone calls, parent-completed diaries, and monitoring of school absence lists were used. Detailed questionnaires were used to investigate reported illnesses. No one method of surveillance provided accurate estimates of respiratory morbidity in young children, and physicians' records were not reliable enough to be used as the sole source for data validation. Use of multiple sources for surveillance, however, provided illness rates comparable to those obtained in other community surveillance programs.

Child↗