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[The evolution and prognosis of liver cirrhosis patients. III. An evaluation of the survival rate and mortality using graphic mathematical models].

The survival and mortality were assessed in 474 patients with liver cirrhosis followed up for a long time in outpatient conditions. The programme 2R of the statistical package BMDP was used and the following mathematical methods were applied: function of survival (for men and women) assessed by the method of Kaplan-Meyer; function of mortality assessed by the hazard-model of Link; velocity of growth of the function of mortality and method of the cumulative function of mortality for the remainders. The achievement of data, confirming each other, by the four mathematical graphic models applied allows the assertion that the selected method for assessment of the prognosis of liver cirrhosis is correct. It may be concluded with great certainty that there is no difference in the survival between men and women suffering from liver cirrhosis.

Bulgaria↗

[An analysis of the effect of measles vaccination program by a mathematical model].

The reported case rates of measles during 1967-1986 were analyzed and compared with rates predicted by a mathematical model for measles prevalence. In Japan, measles vaccination was introduced in October, 1978. Since data before and after the introduction were available, the effect of the vaccination program could be analyzed. The mathematical model was constructed by modifying the Kermack-McKendrick model. In the model, environmental virus density was involved as an additional variable and the 'death' (inactivation) rate of the virus was assumed to show seasonal variation. The strategy for prevention and eradication was also discussed. The main results were as follows: 1. The characteristics of measles prevalence were (1) seasonal (annual) variation which has a peak in May or June and a bottom in September or October, (2) bienniality (before the vaccination), i.e., higher prevalence and lower prevalence years alternate every other year, and (3) trienniality (after the vaccination), i.e., a higher prevalence year appears every three years. 2. The model could reproduce all these characteristics for a range of probable parameters. 3. According to the model, trienniality was a transient phase and the system finally reached a stationary state that showed neither bienniality nor trienniality. 4. The critical density of the susceptible population necessary for the survivability of the virus in the population, was also obtainable from the model.

Computer Simulation↗

[Mathematical method of predicting possibilities of the development of suppurative complications in patients with perforating injuries of the eye].

An image-recognition mathematical method was used to predict the development of purulent complications in 153 patients with perforating injuries to the eye. The results were processed by CM-4 computer. A method of the automated system 'training' is described and the results of examinations of the test group are presented. The suggested mathematical method, whose sensitivity index is 95 percent, provides recognition of expected purulent inflammation with a specificity of 78 percent.

Algorithms↗

[Possibilities of mathematical models of pharmacokinetics].

Mathematical modelling is currently the most rapidly developing branch of pharmacokinetics. Along with such traditional pharmacokinetic aspects as drug absorption, distribution, metabolism, and elimination, the pharmacodynamic area is also becoming actively involved in mathematical modelling. Complex pharmacokinetic-dynamic models are becoming a tool that finds wider application in drug therapy optimization. Current approaches to the pharmacokinetic modeling are discussed and classification of various model types presented, each type being briefly specified and compared to the others. Mention is made of the major problems that are encountered in pharmacokinetics and that require modelling to find a proper solution. Future tasks calling for the use of modelling are also considered.

Models, Biological↗

Mathematical model of simultaneous diffusion and binding of antitumor antibodies in multicellular human tumor spheroids.

Multicellular tumor spheroids are widely used as in vitro models of poorly vascularized tumor nodules in vivo. The uptake kinetics of tumor-associated antibodies in multicellular tumor spheroids is assumed to be governed by passive diffusion and irreversible binding of the antibodies with binding sites on the cell surface. By further assuming that the spheroids are homogeneous with respect to diffusion and binding, a mathematical model has been developed which permits the extraction of the macroscopic diffusion constant D and the macroscopic binding rate k from empirical studies. The model was applied to uptake kinetics data obtained (a) with a melanoma-associated monoclonal antibody 96.5 (isotype IgG2a)-human multicellular melanoma spheroid system exhibiting strong antibody to cell binding and (b) with the same monoclonal antibody-human multicellular colon adenocarcinoma HT29 spheroid system exhibiting nonspecific binding. The spheroids had approximately 300 microns diameter. The constants D and k were estimated to be 0.45 micron2 s-1 and 2.0 x 10(-3) s-1, respectively, for the system with specific binding. Saturation of binding sites occurred. In the nonspecific binding system, D and k were found to be 0.10 micron2 s-1 and 1.0 x 10(-5) s-1. No saturation of binding sites occurred. D and k were also estimated to be, respectively, 0.52 micron2 s-1 and 6.4 x 10(-5) s-1 for another melanoma-associated monoclonal antibody 140.240 (same isotype as 96.5) in the melanoma spheroid system exhibiting moderate cell binding with the antibody. The mathematical model describes well the system exhibiting nonspecific binding, but requires modifications and further development for the systems exhibiting moderate to strong binding.

Adenocarcinoma↗

[Possibilities of using mathematical methods in prognostication of individual radiation sensitivity].

The prediction of a response to irradiation is one of the most urgent problems in modern radiobiology. The accumulated experimental material requires the use of mathematical methods in strict succession for analysis of the regularities of prognosis. Analysis of individual radiosensitivity of animals by means of mathematical methods includes 6 stages. This approach can lay the basis for the formation of a package of applied programs to study relationships of the system. The package aimed at a dialogue with a researcher and solving a graphic data image will enable one to determine the statistical regularities of the system behavior.

Animals↗

[Development of bacterial populations of telluric, enteric, and marine origin in planktonic systems exposed to urban pollution; mathematical data analysis].

A study of the comparative distribution of different types of bacterial populations in the sea area where the city of Marseille rejects its waste water shows that, when in contact with the marine environment, a great part of the allochthonic bacterial population undergoes physiological stress expressed by an abrupt reduction of the effectives and by weak values of the energetic charge. The presence of coliforms and streptococci in waste water lens, at important distances from discharging conduits, shows the possibility of a large diffusion for a fraction of the bacterial populations that withstand the initial stress. From mathematical analyses, an inverse correlation is revealed between detergents and the bacterial population as a whole, and between phenols and various allochthonic bacterial populations. The above results were evidenced through a sampling strategy based upon a 24-h-cycle study and a search for mathematical correlations between several biological, chemical, and physical parameters.

Adenosine Triphosphate↗

[Quantification of environmentally influenced differences in physical and mental development of infants by a phenomenologic-mathematical separation of the body length growth into growth spurts (author's transl)].

Retardation phenomena in the physical development--especially in the increase of body length--of infants taken care of in social institutions (day-nursery, week-nursery, residential nursery) in relation to those growing up in the family will be represented in a quantitative-analytical form on the basis of a phenomenologic-mathematical model. This kind of modelling consists in the separation into 7 successive growth periods (growth spurts) of the whole growth process during the time interval from conception until the age of 3 years. For the time interval from birth until the end of 3 years we have 4 such growth spurts. The second one (fifth in the former numbering) determines mainly the growth during the 2nd year of the individual's life and makes evident the delay in the mean increase of body length of infants taken care of in social institutions, which is most evident for children who grow up in a residential nursery. The quantitative statements derived from the mathematical model concerning the physical development will be confronted with the known facts concerning the retardation in the mental-psychial development--especially in the ontogenesis of speech--of the same groups of children. There is an astonishingly close accordance of the values of time delays in reaching the levels of the physical and of the psychical development. The model may help to perceive and to diagnose the complex of causes responsible for these retardation phenomena from a social-medical and biological point of view. On the other hand this may also give a critizism and assessment of the real relevance of the biomathematical separation of the growth process into single growth spurts practiced here.

Body Height↗

[Phenomenologic-mathematical modeling of the human-body-length growth through the analysis of growth periods and their quantitative-analytical registration].

The body height growth (of masculine beings) was modelled in a phenomenologic-mathematical manner by partitioning the time course of measured growth curve in parts every of which corresponds to a separated growth period. This partitioning was reached in a natural way so that a superposition of the single spurts yields the whole measured course. Every growth batch will be described in its time course by one term of inverse tangent function. The biological meaning and an explanation of the succession of the growth spurt as an effect of control circuits need further exploratory work. For detailed statements on acceleration phenomena concerning the body height growth this analysis gives possibilities for comparing the single growth spurts of the mean growth process of two populations in question. For measured values given by BROCK (1954) and SALZLER (1967) there are five growth periods in the time intervall reaching from time of conception until the end of the first year. Comparing the mathematical functions of the corresponding growth spurts for these two groups one can conclude that the second spurt (fetal spurt) is responsible for an increase of birth body height and the fourth for an increase of body height in the suckling age of the latter group against the former one.

Adolescent↗

T helper cell inclusion into the mathematical model of immunological tolerance.

The experimentally observed recovery from tolerance to HSA in chickens is much slower than the values calculated by means of the simple mathematical model of B cell tolerance. The model assumes that tolerance is due to elimination or irreversible inactivation of immunocompetent cells reactive to the tolerated antigen, and that the recovery from tolerance is caused by the differentiation of new immunocompetent cells. Even when two collaborating B cell populations reactive to HSA were considered, the calculated recovery from tolerance was much slower than the observed one. Therefore, T helper cell tolerance was suspected and included into the mathematical model. The experimental data agreed best with the calculated values of the recovery from tolerance to HSA obtained with a T cell lifespan of 200 days. On the other hand, when two T helper cell populations cooperated with B cells in anti-HSA antibody production, the curve best fitting the experimental data corresponded to the T cell lifespan of 60 days.

Animals↗

[Mathematical modelling of glycolysis and adenine nucleotide metabolism of human erythrocytes. I. Reaction-kinetic statements, analysis of in vivo state and determination of starting conditions for in vitro experiments].

A mathematical model of energy metabolism of human red cells is presented, which includes besides the glycolytic reactions the adenine nucleotide metabolism. The model is based on the network of chemical reactions, the thermodynamic equilibrium constants of fast reversible reactions and on the kinetic equations for irreversible enzyme reactions. The model consists of a system of 16 differential equations and allows the mathematical evaluation of metabolic levels in the steady state of energy metabolism corresponding to the in vivo state erythrocytes with the kinetic data for the enzymes derived from in vitro experiments. The dependence of the levels of metabolites in the steady state on the activity of some enzymes is analysed to characterize the regulatory properties of the system. The comparison of the steady state levels of the model with experimental data makes it possible to estimate values of some controversial enzyme parameters. Estimates of the kinetic parameters of the following intracellular processes are presented: 1) rate constant of AMP-phosphatase, 2) maximum rate of adenylate deaminase, 3) activity of adenine phosphoribosylpyrophosphate transferase and 4) adenosine transport through the cell membrane. The simulation of the preparatory phase before incubation of erythrocytes indicates, that the model also permits to compute the time course of changes of levels of metabolites. To solve the initial problem the stiff differential equation system is integrated numerically by an efficient program without the application of the quasi-steady-state approximation.

Adenine Nucleotides↗

[Use of mathematical models in the analysis of gastric digestion].

Mathematical models of gastric hydrolysis of different proteins were elaborated in dogs. These models consider the spatialtemporal coordinates of distribution of pepsin, hydrogen ions and hydrolysates in the stomach, carry out the analysis of factors determining the gastric digestion. The main part belongs to topography and hydrodynamics of gastric content as well as to pepsin concentration. The concentration of "total hydrolysates" is proposed as the final criterion of the gastric digestion. An algorithm for mathematical modelling of gastric digestion is suggested.

Animals↗

A simple mathematical model for predicting lithium dose requirement.

Available methods of predicting lithium dose have been based on kinetics of a single test dose. A statistically based mathematical model was developed in which lithium dose is derived by stepwise multiple linear regression based on desired level, form of lithium, concomitant tricyclic use, age, sex, and weight. Predictions of the model were correct to within 300 mg in 66% of the 100 initial cases and within 600 mg in 94% of cases. A validation study of 112 additional cases revealed similar percentage. The simple mathematical expression derived from record review allows the clinician to calculate the relationship of steady-state lithium dosage to serum level prior to initiating treatment.

Adult↗

Theoretical and mathematical conditions for use of linearization methods for saturation-type radioassay data.

The algebraic equivalency of nine different methods for the linearization of saturation-type radioassay data was previously demonstrated mathematically to hold under the assumption that the antibody is saturated with ligand. Although compete saturation with antibody never occurs, a good approximation to a saturation condition occurs when the product of the labeled ligand and the affinity constant is 100 or more. The mathematical basis for determining when methods for the linearization of saturation-type radioassay data are valid is derived from a development of the first-order mass action law applied to ligand-antibody reactions.

Antibody Affinity↗

[Mathematical model of the propagation of a vulpine rabies epizootic (author's transl)].

A mathematical model of propagation of a vulpine rabies epizootic has been worked out in order to build a prediction tool and to fix a suitable prophylaxis. The main ecological hypotheses and their mathematical expression are presented. This consists of a system of two integro-differential equations which have been discretizited to approximate their solution numerically. The results of the simulation of this model are consistent with the data observed in the field.

Animals↗

Use of mathematical models for predicting the metabolic effect of large-scale enzyme activity alterations. Application to enzyme deficiencies of red blood cells.

There are numerous examples showing that the metabolism of cells can be severely impaired if the activity of only one of the participating enzymes undergoes large-scale alterations, resulting, for example, from spontaneous mutations (inherited or acquired enzymopathies), the administration of toxic drugs or self-inactivation of enzymes during cell aging. However, a quantitative relationship between the degree of enzyme deficiency and the extent of metabolic dysfunction is very difficult to establish by experimental means. An alternative is to tackle this problem by mathematical modelling. Our approach is based on a comprehensive mathematical model of the energy and redox metabolism for human erythrocytes. We calculate stationary states of the cell metabolism, varying the activity of each of the participating enzymes by several orders of magnitude. The metabolic states are then evaluated in terms of a performance function which relates the metabolic variables to the overall functional fitness of the cell. The performance function for the erythrocyte takes into account the homeostasis of three essential metabolic variables: the energetic state (ATP), the reductive capacity (reduced glutathione), and the osmotic state. Based on the behaviour of the performance function at varying enzyme activities, we estimate those ranges of enzyme activities, in which the metabolic alterations should be either tolerable, associated with non-chronic or chronic diseases, or lethal. For most enzymopathies, the experimental and clinical observations can be satisfactorily rationalized by the computational results. Moreover, a surprisingly high correlation is found between the range of the activity range where disease is predicted by the model and the observed number of diseased probands. Another objective of our study was to contribute to the theory of metabolic control. The well-elaborated concept of the metabolic control theory is restricted to (infinitely) small activity alterations. In order to quantify the metabolic effect of finite (large-scale) changes in the activity of an enzyme, we propose, as a control measure, the effective activity E alpha, defined as the relative activity of an enzyme (with respect to the activity in a reference state) required to bring about a change in the stationary value of a metabolic variable by the (finite) factor alpha. We demonstrate that none of the existing extrapolation methods using the conventional control coefficient is capable to provide reliable predictions of the effective activities for all enzymes of erythrocyte metabolism.

Adenosine Triphosphate↗

Assay of estrogen and progesterone receptors in small samples of breast cancer: II. The conventional procedure compared to the mathematical one.

Parallel assays of ER and PR receptors have been performed in the same tissue samples using both the conventional method employing two sets of test tubes and a mathematical method which does not need the second set of tubes containing excess cold ligand concentrations. Determinations have been performed in calf uterus and human breast cancer samples. Findings show that the two methods give quite similar results. In particular, they are very close in human BC tissues where receptor density values show a very wide range. The mathematical method seems quite useful when the samples are poor of receptors, a case where the precision of the method may influence both prognosis and therapy.

Animals↗

Use of a new mathematical model in fitting survivorship curves of Drosophila treated with the antioxidant thiazolidine carboxylic acid.

We have recently proposed a mathematical model of survival mortality kinetics. It is based on biological and statistical hypotheses and is able to fit survivorship curves even at advanced ages, where other models fail. The mathematical function contains two parameters, omega and So, related to deterministic and stochastic factors, respectively. In the present paper the model has been applied to a set of survival curves of Drosophila melanogaster. The different curves derived from populations of flies treated with different doses of the antioxidant thiazolidine carboxylic acid (TCA). The treatment induced a significant progressive increase of mean and maximum lifespan up to the TCA dietary concentration of 0.3%. Higher doses of TCA, on the contrary, were toxic, reducing both mean and maximum lifespan. An interpretation of the differential TCA effects has been attempted on the basis of the values assumed by the two model parameters.

Aging↗