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Abundance of house dust mites in relation to climate in contrasting agricultural settlements in Israel.

The correlation between climatic conditions and mite numbers in houses from rural areas was studied in 13 agricultural communities (kibbutzim and moshavim) in nine geo-climatic subregions of Israel. Mites were present in 97% of the dust samples. The average number of mites per gram of dust in the different localities ranged between 84 and 2053. The maximum number of mites (7440/g dust) was found in a carpet from a house in Geva Carmel in the northern coastal region. The most prevalent species of mites were Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus and Dermatophagoides farinae, which were found in 85.6% and 71.3% of the samples, respectively. The house dust mites D. pteronyssinus, D. farinae and Euroglyphus maynei constituted 94.8% of the mites. Most of the mites were isolated from the carpets and sofas (37.0% and 33.7%, respectively), and a smaller number from beds (29.3%). The smallest number of mites (< or = 250/g dust) were found at a minimum relative humidity (RH) of 30% and lower, with a maximum temperature of 32 degrees C and higher, i.e. in the Jordan valley and Negev mountains. A greater number of mites (250-500/g dust) were found at a minimum ambient RH of 35-40% and a maximum temperature of 32 degrees C and higher, i.e. the Hula valley. A large number of mites (500-1000/g dust) were found at a minimum RH of 35-40% with a maximum temperature of 30 degrees C and lower, i.e. in the Judean and Samarian range, as well as in upper Galilee. The largest number of mites (1000-2000/g dust) was found at a minimum RH of 45% and higher, with a maximum temperature ranging between 30 and 32 degrees C. These conditions occur in the coastal strip, the coastal plain and in the Judean and Samarian foothills. A monthly examination of two houses in Zova, a kibbutz in the Judean hills next to Jerusalem, and two houses from Palmachim, a kibbutz in the coastal region, revealed that the highest prevalence of mites was found in the months April-November and May-November, respectively. In Zova, the highest number of mites were found during the months of June and July while the highest concentrations of D. pteronyssinus-antigen (Der p I) were measured during the month of September. A positive correlation between mite numbers and the quantity of Der p I in house dust was found.

Agriculture↗

Deriving meteorological variables across Africa for the study and control of vector-borne disease: a comparison of remote sensing and spatial interpolation of climate.

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the utility of remote sensing (RS) using meteorological satellites sensors and spatial interpolation (SI) of data from meteorological stations, for the prediction of spatial variation in monthly climate across continental Africa in 1990. Information from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) polar-orbiting meteorological satellites was used to estimate land surface temperature (LST) and atmospheric moisture. Cold cloud duration (CCD) data derived from the High Resolution Radiometer (HRR) on-board the European Meteorological Satellite programme's (EUMETSAT) Meteosat satellite series were also used as a RS proxy measurement of rainfall. Temperature, atmospheric moisture and rainfall surfaces were independently derived from SI of measurements from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) member stations of Africa. These meteorological station data were then used to test the accuracy of each methodology, so that the appropriateness of the two techniques for epidemiological research could be compared. SI was a more accurate predictor of temperature, whereas RS provided a better surrogate for rainfall; both were equally accurate at predicting atmospheric moisture. The implications of these results for mapping short and long-term climate change and hence their potential for the study and control of disease vectors are considered. Taking into account logistic and analytical problems, there were no clear conclusions regarding the optimality of either technique, but there was considerable potential for synergy.

Africa↗

Molecular evidence links cryptic diversification in polar planktonic protists to Quaternary climate dynamics.

It is unknown how pelagic marine protists undergo diversification and speciation. Superficially, the open ocean appears homogeneous, with few clear barriers to gene flow, allowing extensive, even global, dispersal. Yet, despite the apparent lack of opportunity for genetic isolation, diversity is prevalent within marine taxa. A lack of candidate isolating mechanisms would seem to favor sympatric over allopatric speciation models to explain the diversity and biogeographic patterns observed in the oceans today. However, the ocean is a dynamic system, and both current and past circulation patterns must be considered in concert to gain a true perspective of gene flow through time. We have derived a comprehensive picture of the mechanisms potentially at play in the high latitudes by combining molecular, biogeographic, fossil, and paleoceanographic data to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the polar planktonic foraminifer Neogloboquadrina pachyderma sinistral. We have discovered extensive genetic diversity within this morphospecies and that its current "extreme" polar affinity did not appear until late in its evolutionary history. The molecular data demonstrate a stepwise progression of diversification starting with the allopatric isolation of Atlantic Arctic and Antarctic populations after the onset of the Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Further diversification occurred only in the Southern Hemisphere and seems to have been linked to glacial-interglacial climate dynamics. Our findings demonstrate the role of Quaternary climate instability in shaping the modern high-latitude plankton. The divergent evolutionary history of N. pachyderma sinistral genotypes implies that paleoceanographic proxies based on this taxon should be calibrated independently.

Animals↗

Fine-scale processes regulate the response of extreme events to global climate change.

We find that extreme temperature and precipitation events are likely to respond substantially to anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse forcing and that fine-scale climate system modifiers are likely to play a critical role in the net response. At present, such events impact a wide variety of natural and human systems, and future changes in their frequency and/or magnitude could have dramatic ecological, economic, and sociological consequences. Our results indicate that fine-scale snow albedo effects influence the response of both hot and cold events and that peak increases in extreme hot events are amplified by surface moisture feedbacks. Likewise, we find that extreme precipitation is enhanced on the lee side of rain shadows and over coastal areas dominated by convective precipitation. We project substantial, spatially heterogeneous increases in both hot and wet events over the contiguous United States by the end of the next century, suggesting that consideration of fine-scale processes is critical for accurate assessment of local- and regional-scale vulnerability to climate change.

Climate↗

Root functioning modifies seasonal climate.

Hydraulic redistribution (HR), the nocturnal vertical transfer of soil water from moister to drier regions in the soil profile by roots, has now been observed in Amazonian trees. We have incorporated HR into an atmospheric general circulation model (the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Atmospheric Model Version 2) to estimate its impact on climate over the Amazon and other parts of the globe where plants displaying HR occur. Model results show that photosynthesis and evapotranspiration increase significantly in the Amazon during the dry season when plants are allowed to redistribute soil water. Plants draw water up and deposit it into the surface layers, and this water subsidy sustains transpiration at rates that deep roots alone cannot accomplish. The water used for dry season transpiration is from the deep storage layers in the soil, recharged during the previous wet season. We estimate that HR increases dry season (July to November) transpiration by approximately 40% over the Amazon. Our model also indicates that such an increase in transpiration over the Amazon and other drought-stressed regions affects the seasonal cycles of temperature through changes in latent heat, thereby establishing a direct link between plant root functioning and climate.

Atmosphere↗

Antarctic birds breed later in response to climate change.

In the northern hemisphere, there is compelling evidence for climate-related advances of spring events, but no such long-term biological time series exist for the southern hemisphere. We have studied a unique data set of dates of first arrival and laying of first eggs over a 55-year period for the entire community of Antarctic seabirds in East Antarctica. The records over this long period show a general unexpected tendency toward later arrival and laying, an inverse trend to those observed in the northern hemisphere. Overall, species now arrive at their colonies 9.1 days later, on average, and lay eggs an average of 2.1 days later than in the early 1950s. Furthermore, these delays are linked to a decrease in sea ice extent that has occurred in eastern Antarctica, which underlies the contrasted effects of global climate change on species in Antarctica.

Animal Migration↗

Climate change, body size evolution, and Cope's Rule in deep-sea ostracodes.

Causes of macroevolutionary trends in body size, such as Cope's Rule, the tendency of body size to increase over time, remain poorly understood. We used size measurements from Cenozoic populations of the ostracode genus Poseidonamicus, in conjunction with phylogeny and paleotemperature estimates, to show that climatic cooling leads to significant increases in body size, both overall and within individual lineages. The magnitude of size increase due to Cenozoic cooling is consistent with temperature-size relationships in geographically separated modern populations (Bergmann's Rule). Thus population-level phenotypic evolution in response to climate change can be an important determinant of macroevolutionary trends in body size.

Animals↗

The effect of climate variation on agro-pastoral production in Africa.

Using national crop and livestock production records from 1961-2003 and satellite-derived data on pasture greenness from 1982-2003 we show that the productivity of crops, livestock, and pastures in Africa is predictably associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation. The causal relations of these results are partly understandable through the associations between the atmospheric fluctuations and African rainfall. The range of the explained among-year variation in crop production in Africa as a whole corresponds to the nutritional requirements for approximately 20 million people. Results suggest reduced African food production if the global climate changes toward more El Niño-like conditions, as most climate models predict. Maize production in southern Africa is most strongly affected by El Niño events. Management measures include annual changes in crop selection and storage strategies in response to El Niño Southern Oscillation-based and North Atlantic Oscillation-based predictions for the next growing season.

Africa↗

Plague dynamics are driven by climate variation.

The bacterium Yersinia pestis causes bubonic plague. In Central Asia, where human plague is still reported regularly, the bacterium is common in natural populations of great gerbils. By using field data from 1949-1995 and previously undescribed statistical techniques, we show that Y. pestis prevalence in gerbils increases with warmer springs and wetter summers: A 1 degrees C increase in spring is predicted to lead to a >50% increase in prevalence. Climatic conditions favoring plague apparently existed in this region at the onset of the Black Death as well as when the most recent plague pandemic arose in the same region, and they are expected to continue or become more favorable as a result of climate change. Threats of outbreaks may thus be increasing where humans live in close contact with rodents and fleas (or other wildlife) harboring endemic plague.

Animals↗

Predicted climate change alters the indirect effect of predators on an ecosystem process.

Changes in rainfall predicted to occur with global climate change will likely alter rates of leaf-litter decomposition through direct effects on primary decomposers. In a field experiment replicated at two sites, we show that altered rainfall may also change how cascading trophic interactions initiated by arthropod predators in the leaf litter indirectly influence litter decomposition. On the drier site there was no interaction between rainfall and the indirect effect of predators on decomposition. In contrast, on the moister site spiders accelerated the disappearance rate of deciduous leaf litter under low rainfall, but had no, or possibly a negative, indirect effect under high rainfall. Thus, changes resulting from the more intense hydrological cycle expected to occur with climate change will likely influence how predators indirectly affect an essential ecosystem process.

Animals↗

The Sahara as a vicariant agent, and the role of Miocene climatic events, in the diversification of the mammalian order Macroscelidea (elephant shrews).

Although the Sahara is a major geographical feature of the African continent, its role in the diversification of animal species is not well understood. We present here a molecular phylogeny for members of the endemic African mammalian order Macroscelidea (elephant shrews) with molecular-clock calculations; this molecular phylogeny provides convincing evidence that the genus Elephantulus is diphyletic. Elephantulus rozeti, the only elephant shrew species that resides north of the Sahara, is the sister group of a species from a different genus (Petrodromus tetradactylus), which resides just south of the Sahara. The split between these taxa coincided with major Miocene climatic events, which triggered the cooling and aridification of midlatitude continental regions, and a shift in the Sahara from a tropical to an arid environment. Thus, the North African distribution of E. rozeti is not the result of dispersion from an eastern species of the genus, but instead the result of a vicariant event involving the formation of the Sahara. The splitting events involved with most Elephantulus species in our analysis appear to coincide with these climatic events. This coincidence suggests that the environmental consequences associated with this period played an important role in the radiation of this order of mammals. The strongly supported phylogeny provides compelling evidence for a complex history of mosaic evolution, including pronounced bradytelic morphological evolution in some lineages, accelerated morphological evolution in others, and a remarkably slow rate of evolution of the male reproductive structure.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Additive effects of simulated climate changes, elevated CO2, and nitrogen deposition on grassland diversity.

Biodiversity responses to ongoing climate and atmospheric changes will affect both ecosystem processes and the delivery of ecosystem goods and services. Combined effects of co-occurring global changes on diversity, however, are poorly understood. We examined plant diversity responses in a California annual grassland to manipulations of four global environmental changes, singly and in combination: elevated CO2, warming, precipitation, and nitrogen deposition. After 3 years, elevated CO2 and nitrogen deposition each reduced plant diversity, whereas elevated precipitation increased it and warming had no significant effect. Diversity responses to both single and combined global change treatments were driven overwhelmingly by gains and losses of forb species, which make up most of the native plant diversity in California grasslands. Diversity responses across treatments also showed no consistent relationship to net primary production responses, illustrating that the diversity effects of these environmental changes could not be explained simply by changes in productivity. In two- to four-way combinations, simulated global changes did not interact in any of their effects on diversity. Our results show that climate and atmospheric changes can rapidly alter biological diversity, with combined effects that, at least in some settings, are simple, additive combinations of single-factor effects.

Atmosphere↗

Tufted puffin reproduction reveals ocean climate variability.

Anomalously warm sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are associated with interannual and decadal variability as well as with long-term climate changes indicative of global warming. Such oscillations could precipitate changes in a variety of oceanic processes to affect marine species worldwide. As global temperatures continue to rise, it will be critically important to be able to predict the effects of such changes on species' abundance, distribution, and ecological relationships so as to identify vulnerable populations. Off the coast of British Columbia, warm SSTs have persisted through the last two decades. Based on 16 years of reproductive data collected between 1975 and 2002, we show that the extreme variation in reproductive performance exhibited by tufted puffins (Fratercula cirrhata) was related to changes in SST both within and among seasons. Especially warm SSTs corresponded with drastically decreased growth rates and fledging success of puffin nestlings. Puffins may partially compensate for within-season changes associated with SST by adjusting their breeding phenology, yet our data also suggest that they are highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change at this site and may serve as a valuable indicator of biological change in the North Pacific. Further and prolonged increases in ocean temperature could make Triangle Island, which contains the largest tufted puffin colony in Canada, unsuitable as a breeding site for this species.

Animals↗

ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.

Cholera↗

Contribution of climate-driven change in continental water storage to recent sea-level rise.

Using a global model of continental water balance, forced by interannual variations in precipitation and near-surface atmospheric temperature for the period 1981-1998, we estimate the sea-level changes associated with climate-driven changes in storage of water as snowpack, soil water, and ground water; storage in ice sheets and large lakes is not considered. The 1981-1998 trend is estimated to be 0.12 mm/yr, and substantial interannual fluctuations are inferred; for 1993-1998, the trend is 0.25 mm/yr. At the decadal time scale, the terrestrial contribution to eustatic (i.e., induced by mass exchange) sea-level rise is significantly smaller than the estimated steric (i.e., induced by density changes) trend for the same period, but is not negligibly small. In the model the sea-level rise is driven mainly by a downtrend in continental precipitation during the study period, which we believe was generated by natural variability in the climate system.

Climate↗

Evolutionary consequences of changes in species' geographical distributions driven by Milankovitch climate oscillations.

We suggest Milankovitch climate oscillations as a common cause for geographical patterns in species diversity, species' range sizes, polyploidy, and the degree of specialization and dispersability of organisms. Periodical changes in the orbit of the Earth cause climatic changes termed Milankovitch oscillations, leading to large changes in the size and location of species' geographical distributions. We name these recurrent changes "orbitally forced species' range dynamics" (ORD). The magnitude of ORD varies in space and time. ORD decreases gradual speciation (attained by gradual changes over many generations), increases range sizes and the proportions of species formed by polyploidy and other "abrupt" mechanisms, selects against specialization, and favor dispersability. Large ORD produces species prone neither to extinction nor gradual speciation. ORD increases with latitude. This produces latitudinal patterns, among them the gradient in species diversity and species' range sizes (Rapoport's rule). Differential ORD and its evolutionary consequences call for new conservation strategies on the regional to global scale.

Biological Evolution↗

Distribution, host range, and climatic constraints on Centistes gasseni (Hymenoptera: Braconidae), a South American parasitoid of cucumber beetles, Diabrotica spp. (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae).

The genus Diabrotica includes a large number of pest species, including some of the most important crop pests of the Americas. The parasitoid Centistes gasseni Shaw is the first braconid to be described parasitizing Diabrotica in South America, and high natural infestations are reported. Field and experimental observations on the host range, distribution and biology of this parasitoid are described. Centistes gasseniwas collected in southern Brazil, eastern Paraguay and northeastern Argentina, in a region comprising humid lowlands and highlands, and cool temperate to warm subtropical climates, with regular rainfall in excess of 1300 mm. Three Diabroticaspecies, D. limitata (Sahlberg), D. speciosa (Germar) and D. viridula (Fabricius) were found to host the parasitoid, with mean percent parasitism of 5.4, 2.0 and 1.0%, respectively. Diabrotica speciosa and D. viridula are the two most important pest Diabroticaspecies in South America. Laboratory experiments with field-collected beetles and parasitoid cocoons indicated that C. gasseni overwinters in adult host beetles, remaining dormant in its live host below developmental temperatures. A potential distribution of C. gasseni in North America is proposed based on its known climatic range and the distribution of the main pest species of adult overwintering North American Diabrotica.

Animals↗