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Health system reform and the role of field sites based upon demographic and health surveillance.

Field sites for demographic and health surveillance have made well-recognized contributions to the evaluation of new or untested interventions, largely through efficacy trials involving new technologies or the delivery of selected services, e.g. vaccines, oral rehydration therapy and alternative contraceptive methods. Their role in health system reform, whether national or international, has, however, proved considerably more limited. The present article explores the characteristics and defining features of such field sites in low-income and middle-income countries and argues that many currently active sites have a largely untapped potential for contributing substantially to national and subnational health development. Since the populations covered by these sites often correspond with the boundaries of districts or subdistricts, the strategic use of information generated by demographic surveillance can inform the decentralization efforts of national and provincial health authorities. Among the areas of particular importance are the following: making population-based information available and providing an information resource; evaluating programmes and interventions; and developing applications to policy and practice. The question is posed as to whether their potential contribution to health system reform justifies arguing for adaptations to these field sites and expanded investment in them.

Developing Countries↗

[Methods for projecting private households].

"Although there exists a reasonable number of methods for projecting the number of private households, only a few of them are used in practice. The reason for this discrepancy is...analysed. All important methods which had been developed until now will be presented, focusing on their assumptions and the data needed." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Family Characteristics↗

Will U.S. fertility rise? Watch the wage.

The author reviews various methods for projecting U.S. fertility trends and finds that "a promising approach to anticipate the course of future fertility is to examine the tradeoffs women see between children and work outside the home, especially in the context of men's earnings."

Americas↗

Demographic and AIDS-related characteristics of consenters to a population-based HIV-survey: results from a pilot study in Arusha, Tanzania.

The aim was to compare demographic and AIDS-related characteristics of people who consented to HIV-testing as part of a population survey with those who did not consent to HIV-testing. Subjects, aged 15-54 years, living in ten randomly selected clusters of households in one ward of Arusha town were asked to participate in a structured interview and to provide a blood sample for HIV-testing. Measurements included demographic variables and AIDS-related factors, such as knowledge of AIDS and sexual behaviour, and HIV-testing with Western Blot confirmation. Sixty-two percent of the eligible population (N = 600) participated in the interview, while 38% consented to HIV-testing. Odds ratio analysis techniques were used to compare consenters and non-consenters. More women than men participated in the interview (OR = 4.23), and participating men were younger than non-participating men (29.1 vs 31.9 years). Subjects who had attended secondary school were underrepresented among the HIV- test consenters (OR = 0.40). No other demographic or AIDS-related differences were observed between HIV-test consenters and non-consenters. At least in this pilot, non- consenters did not appear to be at any higher risk for HIV-infection than the consenters. Future population-based HIV-surveys might have to compromise on maximizing participation rate in order to secure informed, non-coerced consent from participants.

AIDS Serodiagnosis↗

[Target population for hypertensive therapy].

The efficacy of treatment may be demonstrated globally but, in some patients, treatment can be either inappropriate or harmful because of undesirable secondary effects. Ideally, treatment should be limited to patients who respond, but this is impossible with the published data from clinical trials. This could become possible by creating a data base containing all published results and carrying out meta analyses on individual parameters. Using the most powerful methods of analysis this could allow identification of patients responding to treatment by taking into account not only the benefits but also the risks of a given treatment (the principle is to identify and estimate factors--demographical, sociological, generic, which interfere with the size of the effect). In order to identify responders to antihypertensive treatment, a meta analysis of individual data was started, the INDANA project. With a common data base of all the preventive trials of antihypertensive therapy, this study should contribute to improved identification of responders and therefore to individualization of treatment of hypertension.

Antihypertensive Agents↗

Morphology of midlumbar interneurones relaying information from group II muscle afferents in the cat spinal cord.

The morphology of midlumbar interneurones with peripheral input from group II muscle afferents was analysed after intracellular injection of horseradish peroxidase (HRP). Twenty-three interneurones were stained intrasomatically and five others intra-axonally. The majority (10 of 13) of interneurones located in lamina VII (intermediate zone and ventral horn interneurones) were found to project ipsilaterally. They had medium-sized somata and dendrites projecting radially over a distance of more than 1 mm. All of these neurones had axons that projected caudally within the ventral part of the lateral funiculus or in the lateral part of the ventral funiculus, although four had in addition an ascending secondary axonal branch. Numerous axon collaterals were given off from these axons, both before and after they left the grey matter. The collaterals arborized within laminae VII, VIII, and IX, where they covered the area of several motor nuclei. Intra-axonal labelling of five neurones with similar input and axon trajectories revealed several axon collaterals given off between the cell body and the terminal projection areas in L7 or S1 segments. Only three of the labelled interneurones located in lamina VII and displaying the same kind of input had axons with different destinations; their axons crossed to the opposite side of the spinal cord and ascended within the contralateral ventral funiculus. These were large neurones with extensive dendritic trees, which had fairly thick axons with initial axon collaterals that branched primarily ipsilaterally (within laminae V-VIII). Interneurones located in lamina V and in the bordering parts of laminae IV and VI (dorsal horn interneurones; n = 10) constituted a very nonhomogenous population. They projected either ipsilaterally or contralaterally and had either ascending or descending axons running in either the lateral or ventral funiculi. Generally, dorsal horn interneurones had cell bodies smaller than those of intermediate zone and ventral horn interneurones, and their dendrites extended less extensively and less uniformly around the soma. Their initial axon collaterals branched primarily in the dorsal horn, or in lamina VII, but not in or close to the motor nuclei. Our results support the conclusions of previous physiological studies that the intermediate zone and ventral horn midlumbar interneurones with group II input and that project to motor nuclei have collateral actions on other interneurones in the L4-L6 segments, and that dorsal horn interneurones do not project to motoneurones, but have as their targets other interneurones or ascending cells.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Animals↗

Demographic change and housing demand in Spain: projections up to the year 2010.

"The purpose of this study is to determine the future aggregate pressure of demographic factors on housing demand. Both the number and age compositions of Spanish households from 1980 to the year 2010 are projected. To determine the actual net increase of the number of households, the analysis considers both the formation and destruction of households. The magnitude and profile of the projection shows that in the present decade the net yearly growth in the number of households will be slightly smaller than that of previous years. In the first decade of the next century, there will be a drastic reduction in the net growth of new households."

Demography↗

Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology.

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their management. It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.

Animals↗

Neuro-epidemiological pilot survey of an urban population in a developing country. A study in Bangalore, south India.

A feasibility study was conducted in an urban population of 3,040 in Bangalore, South India, to understand the baseline characteristics, evaluate screening questionnaires, identify potential problems and determine the magnitude of the problems. The target population was selected by a random method, from four census enumeration blocks of a specific urban area. A two-phase study design was adopted consisting of screening by trained field investigators in the initial stage and clinical examination by a neurologist in the second stage. The information was collected by an interview method on a house-to-house basis. Evaluation of the screening instruments yielded high sensitivity and specificity rates, and it became clear that there is a need to reduce false-positive results in the screening questionnaire for individuals above 7 years of age. The prevalence of neurological disorders was 32.8 per 1,000 population (with a rate of 7.8/1,000 for epilepsy). It appears feasible to detect a wide range of neurological disorders using the methods described.

Adolescent↗

[Methods for the evaluation of a health intervention in developing countries: the case in the Arsi region, Ethiopia].

Since 1989 an evaluation study of the impact of a Primary Health Care (PHC) program is being carried out in Arsi region, Ethiopia. The principal aim of the study is to estimate the mortality rates in those villages mainly involved in PHC activities. A sample of 80 villages will be recruited to allow significant differences in mortality of 20 per thousand between less treated and best treated villages. Considering the absence of routine demographic data, a population census and demographic surveillance of the recruited villages have been carried out. All the activities related to the study are considered together with the principal logistic and methodologic problems.

Adult↗

[Nutrient consumption by adults and seniors in a population-based study: the Bambuí Project].

A nutritional survey was performed in a random sample of 550 individuals ( > or = 18 years) in Bambuí, Minas Gerais State, Brazil, using the Semi-Quantitative Food Frequency Questionnaire calibrated with 24-hour recall. Comparisons used means, proportions, and the nutrient adequacy ratio (NAR: 90.0-110.0%). Adequate intake was reported in only 2.4% of the individuals for carbohydrate, 17.6% for protein, 0.0 to 5.1% for vitamins, and 0.0 to 21.1% for minerals. NAR was influenced by gender and age: 90.2% and 91.8% of women presented low iron and B6 vitamin intake, respectively. Meanwhile, 87.7% of men reported excess iron, 80.3% phosphorous, and 11.9% cholesterol. Regarding aging, 64.3% of elderly (>or= 60 years old) reported low protein intake and 39.3% inadequate lipid fraction balance (P/S); 35.7% reported high unsaturated fatty acid intake. For adults (18-59 years), 67.8% reported excess protein and 53.4% deficient iron intake. In this population, high lipid consumption and low intake of fiber, vitamins, and minerals pose an important public health problem and may contribute to an increase in chronic non-communicable diseases.

Adolescent↗

[An application of the Gompertz function to the analysis and projection of households by size class].

A technique for representing the distribution of households by size class using the Gompertz function is introduced. "By extension, it may also be used to disaggregate, by size class, an available projection of the total number of households. The technique does not consider directly the dynamic aspects of the family life cycle, however, it has a methodological advantage: it makes use of information usually available in most census publications." The technique is illustrated using international data and data from the Brazilian censuses of 1960, 1970, and 1980. "Finally, the function is used to disaggregate, by size class, a recent projection of households for Brazil. The analyses show that, in fact, the Gompertz function is a consistent model to disaggregate the total number of households by size class. The methods may be useful as a base to develop models to estimate future housing needs according to the size of the dwellings." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Americas↗

Past and future life expectancy increases at later ages: their implications for the linkage of chronic morbidity, disability, and mortality.

Recently life expectancy increases have been noted at advanced ages in the United States. This means a more rapid growth of the elderly U.S. population in general, and of the "oldest-old" population in particular. Thus it is of considerable social and health policy interest to forecast the direction and magnitude of future changes in life expectancy at later ages and the changes in the prevalence of health and disability at later ages consequent to the increases in life expectancy. In the analysis, several prior efforts to predict life expectancy changes using standard demographic techniques are reviewed and reasons for the limitations of such efforts suggested. Results show that mortality changes at advanced ages have very different relations to risk factors than at earlier ages. The analysis also shows that linking morbidity, disability, and mortality in a complete projection of population health changes will require the extension of standard demographic methodologies to utilize information from multiple data sources.

Adult↗

A consistency algorithm based on information theory.

"This paper provides a geometric-mean solution to the consistency problem of multidimensional demographic projection models, based on the constrained minimization of an entropy function. A comparison with the existing harmonic-mean solution yields many similarities and almost no differences....However, one major advantage of the geometric mean is that its corresponding distance function is firmly based on (information) theory." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Evaluation Studies as Topic↗

An estimate of the size of the US predialysis population with renal insufficiency and anemia.

With the development of recombinant human erythropoietin, clinicians can now treat the anemia of chronic renal failure patients. Although most attention has focused on patients with end-stage renal disease, erythropoietin is also prescribed to anemic renal patients before the initiation of dialysis therapy. This study presents the first objective estimate of the size of the US population with predialysis renal insufficiency and the fraction of those patients who also have anemia. The study used population-based data from the second National Health Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES II), conducted between 1976 and 1980. Participants underwent interviews, standardized physical examinations, and blood testing, including hematocrit and serum creatinine (N = 25,286 who were surveyed, 10,453 who underwent laboratory testing). Our estimates were based on the following methodology: (1) selecting predialysis renal insufficiency patients aged 12 to 74 years from the NHANES II survey, (2) adjusting for population changes between 1978 and 1988, (3) adding estimates for pediatric and geriatric populations, (4) projecting results to 1990, and (5) excluding nonanemic patients. The NHANES II survey included 44 patients with serum creatinine values greater than 2.0 mg/dL and less than 8.0 mg/dL. This yielded an estimate of 648,000 to 708,000 persons in 1990 with predialysis renal insufficiency. Data from both the NHANES II survey and the literature demonstrate that the percent of patients with anemia varies by serum creatinine level. All total, the study estimated that in 1990 there were between 68,000 and 75,000 individuals with predialysis renal insufficiency who also had anemia. However, several limitations of the methodology suggest that these values overestimate the true population numbers.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Adolescent↗

Nationwide survey of human parasite in China.

A nationwide survey of human parasites in China was conducted during 1988-1992, with a coverage of 30 provinces/autonomous regions/municipalities (P/A/M). A total of 2,848 pilot sites in 726 counties were selected by random sampling, and 1,477,742 individuals residing on were surveyed by fecal examination. The status of paragonimiasis, hydatid diseases, cysticercosis and trichinellosis were summarized through data review. The overall infection rate of intestinal parasites was 62.6% whereas at provincial level, the highest infection rate (94.7%) was recovered in Hainan, and the lowest (17.5%) in Heilong-jiang. A high proportion (43.3%) of polyparasitism among the infected population (882,080) was revealed. Altogether 56 species of parasites comprising protozoa (19), trematode (16), cestodes (8), nematodes (12) and thorny-headed worm (1) were discovered. During the survey a new species and several new records were documented. The number of the population infected with common intestinal parasites was estimated. The diversities of parasite distribution were noted in different nationalities as well as in varied occupations.

Adolescent↗

A regression approach to the projection of U.S. fertility based on past fertility data.

The method of fertility projection used by the U.S. Bureau of the Census involves assumptions about the ultimate cohort total fertility rate and the ultimate cohort mean age at childbearing based on recent levels of fertility and women's birth expectations. This paper provides an outline of a general regression approach to fertility projection based on past data which would generate these two ultimate cohort characteristics. The technique is illustrated by using the U.S. single-year age-specific fertility rates up to 1986 for total women and projecting them indefinitely into the future until they become stable for both calendar years and cohorts.

Adolescent↗