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PubMed1995

Health and its determining factors in the Tokyo megacity.

This study was designed to (i) analyze community health in post-industrial, densely populated Tokyo, and (ii) find a statistical-based prediction model for the health level of the communities from the environment. For this purpose, we compiled health-level indicators for each city-ward, and indicators for demography, infrastructure, land-use, amenities, education, working conditions, economics, and medical and welfare services. The health factors and the environmental factors were obtained by using weighted principal factor analysis; their relation was examined by weighted correlation analysis and weighted linear regression analysis. One to six environmental factors correlating significantly to health were found for each health-level indicator or factor. The prediction model explained up to 0.98 of the variance of the health-level factors and indicators. This analysis elicited health-determinant factors in various fields. The community health level was well reproduced by the present method; the model will be conducive to decision making pertaining to health policies.

Aged↗
PubMed1991

Growth and equity effects of changing demographic structures in the Netherlands: simulations within a social accounting matrix.

"This paper deals with the economic consequences of a changing demography in an industrialized country, namely the Netherlands. The analytical framework chosen is that of general equilibrium as statistically given by the social accounting matrix (SAM) in which we introduce households by size for the present economic demographic situation (1981) and for a future simulated situation (2010) featuring in particular a relative increase in one-person households (individualization). The income (output) multipliers of both SAMs show a positive growth bias towards three and more person households and towards mining, public utilities, trade and banking."

Demography↗
PubMed1993

[Geography of mortality and birth in Pikine (Senegal): value and limitations of findings of the Civil State in African villages].

Research conducted in Third World towns show the heterogeneity of health population status. Among the indicators, mortality and birth are the most frequent, but the quantity of data and the classical methods in demography make the localisation of high-risk population difficult. Civil Registration Data Base are seldom studied, especially by geographers. The author analyses the interest and limits of these data in a spatial perspective, i.e. mortality and birth rates, mortality and birth volumes, seasonal variations of mortality, and relations between seasonal variations and health system activities. The author's conclusion is on the necessity to include these indicators in the health information system after complementary research on possible bias.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1980

The model for human population dynamics as a part of the global biosphere model: some aspects of modeling in a dialogue regime.

"A matrix model for an age structured population with 4 groups is presented.... The demography matrix is identified with data from global demographic statistics for the 1970s. When calibrating the matrix elements, a semi-formal procedure was used to calculate the dominant eigenvalue and corresponding eigenvector. This procedure was based essentially on the dialogue mode of computation provided by the programing language APL." The advantages of using APL are discussed

Demography↗
PubMed2005

On the distribution and genetic differentiation of Anopheles gambiae s.s. molecular forms.

This paper summarises published and unpublished data on the spatial and temporal distribution, and on the genetic characterisation of molecular forms M and S of Anopheles gambiae s.s. The two forms are characterised by a high level of gene-flow restriction, by a largely overlapping geographical and temporal distribution, and by a low degree of genetic differentiation. Floating paracentric inversions on chromosome-2 are shown to be shared by the two forms, although with very different frequencies of alternative arrangements, confirming that these inversions are most probably involved in ecotypic adaptation, rather than in the building of reproductive barriers. Further studies and tools are needed to throw light on the genetic and biological differentiation of M and S to improve the knowledge of the real composition of the vector system, of its demography, population genetics and dynamics, also in view of the possible consequences on the transmission of human pathogens in sub-Saharan Africa. Preliminary results and perspectives of the use of transposable element insertion sites as markers of genetic differentiation and tools for population genetic studies are discussed.

Africa↗
PubMed2004

The nordic back pain subpopulation program: demographic and clinical predictors for outcome in patients receiving chiropractic treatment for persistent low back pain.

OBJECTIVE: To identify demographic and clinic-related predictors for successful outcome in patients with persistent low-back pain who received chiropractic treatment. DESIGN: Prospective uncontrolled multicenter study with internal control groups. SUBJECTS: Each of 115 Norwegian chiropractors, out of 205 invited, were asked to recruit 10 consecutive patients who had low-back pain for at least 2 weeks at the time of consultation and a minimum of 30 days altogether within the preceding year. In all, 875 patients were included at baseline. The response rates at the fourth visit and at 3 and 12 months were 799, 598, and 512, respectively. METHODS: Baseline data were obtained through questionnaires administered to chiropractic patients and to their treating chiropractors; clinical information was obtained through questionnaires at the fourth visit from patients and chiropractors. Outcome was obtained from patients at the fourth visit. Mail surveys of patients were conducted after 3 and 12 months, and additional information was obtained from chiropractors at 12 months in relation to treatment history. POTENTIAL PREDICTORS: Demography and information on past and present history, clinical findings, and prognosis. OUTCOME VARIABLE: Number of low-back pain"free patients (defined as those with a maximum pain score of 1/10 and a maximum Oswestry score of 15/100). DATA ANALYSIS: Positive predictive values and relative risks were calculated for each categorized predictor variable singly and in combination in relation to being low-back pain free at the 3 follow-up surveys. RESULTS: Treatment outcome at the fourth visit was best predicted by a model containing the following 5 variables: sex, social benefit, severity of pain, duration of continuous pain at first consultation, and additional neck pain (odds ratios between 2.2 and 4.3). A similar profile was found at 3 months, but 2 different variables (relating to disability) were the final variables in relation to the 12-month status. These final models were best at predicting absence of treatment success. Being low-back pain free at the fourth visit was a strong predictor for being low-back pain free both at 3 months and 12 months, with relative risks of 3.0 (2.2-4.8) and 3.1 (1.5-6.5), respectively. CONCLUSION: In patients with persistent low-back pain, it is possible to exclude from treatment those who are unlikely to become low-back pain free after chiropractic care and to do this before they have been examined clinically. Early recovery is a strong predictor for outcome up to 1 year later.

Adolescent↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Stochastic models of some endemic infections.

Stochastic models are established and studied for several endemic infections with demography. Approximations of quasi-stationary distributions and of times to extinction are derived for stochastic versions of SI, SIS, SIR, and SIRS models. The approximations are valid for sufficiently large population sizes. Conditions for validity of the approximations are given for each of the models. These are also conditions for validity of the corresponding deterministic model. It is noted that some deterministic models are unacceptable approximations of the stochastic models for a large range of realistic parameter values.

Communicable Diseases↗
PubMed1999

How inbreeding and outbreeding influence the risk of extinction--a genetically explicit model.

We have developed a stochastic model to explore the common effect which genetics and demography have on the extinction risk of endangered populations. The dynamics is formulated as a MARKOVian birth and death process (in continuous time), whereby selection acts through different mortalities of each genotype. With the help of this model we are able to show how inbreeding and outbreeding can influence the genetic variability and the survival of a population. Whether inbreeding or outbreeding takes place depends on the specific mating system. In our model we consider positive assortative as well as disassortative mating. In the case of additive fitness we show that inbreeding reduces the extinction risk and the genetic variability.

Animals↗
PubMed1998

A one-year review of maxillofacial sports injuries treated at an accident and emergency department.

To assess the aetiology and demand for oral and maxillofacial surgery services associated with sports injuries, a prospective study was undertaken. Data were collected from consecutive patients (with maxillofacial injuries associated with sports) attending the accident and emergency department at the Cardiff Royal Infirmary in the UK during a 12-month period and analysed. Data relating to demography, aetiology, site and extent of injury, treatment and outcome were collected. There were 790 attendances (695M:85F) arising principally from injuries related to rugby (n = 206), cycling (n = 189) and football (n = 109) but few from recognized contact sports (n = 26). The principal causes of these injuries were direct bodily contact (n = 260) and falls (n = 219). The commonest injury was soft-tissue laceration (n = 604); 80 patients had dentoalveolar fractures and 64 patients had fractures of the facial skeleton. Injuries were located in the upper- (n = 257), middle- (n = 201) and lower third of the face (n = 124) with 188 lip/intraoral injuries. Repair of lacerations (n = 600) was the commonest treatment; only 46 fractures required interventive treatment. Follow-up was performed for most of these patients at the Department of Oral and Maxillofacial Surgery at the Dental Hospital (n = 404) and general medical/dental practitioners (n = 258). These data highlight the importance of oral and maxillofacial surgery staff in the management of sports injuries in accident and emergency departments. Moreover, they suggest the need for prioritization of rule and legislation changes and the continuing need to improve safety standards to prevent maxillofacial injuries.

Accidental Falls↗
PubMed2000

Fertility, mortality and gender bias among tribal population: an Indian perspective.

The present paper critically reviews the existing literature on fertility, mortality and its gender bias among India's tribal population in the post-Independence period. Despite difficulties and limitations of available literature on tribal demography--most of which has been produced by anthropologists--our review extracts several interesting and important points. First, although fertility and mortality levels for some tribes and for some regions are either lower or higher or even the same as those for nontribal groups, India's aggregate tribal population evinces both lower fertility and mortality than the levels for their closest comparable nontribal group, namely low caste people. Several sociocultural and lifestyle features of tribals are historically favourable to maintaining a relatively low fertility and mortality. Despite baseline aggregative patterns of demographic differential being favourable to tribes, there is rather strong indication that of late and in the near future Indian tribals might be lagging behind the nontribal population in demographic transition (e.g. in terms of slower pace of tribal fertility and mortality declines). Also, while gender relations among Indian tribes have historically been more balanced and egalitarian, an unfortunate trend of tribal gender bias conforming to the mainstream anti-female pattern (along with acculturation, assimilation and similar 'modernizing' processes) is increasingly discernable under current circumstances.

Cultural Characteristics↗
PubMed2001

Systematic review of population-based epidemiological studies of oro-facial pain.

OBJECTIVES: To conduct a systematic review of epidemiological literature in order to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of oro-facial pain. DATA: Population based observational studies (cohorts, cross-sectional and case-control studies) of oro-facial pain, published in the English language, prior to 1999 were included. SOURCES: Electronic databases (Medline, Embase, Cinahl, BIDS and Health CD) were searched. Reference lists of relevant articles were examined, and the journals "Pain" and "Community Dentistry and Oral Epidemiology" were handsearched for the years 1994-1998. RESULTS: The results of the search strategy were screened for relevance. A standardised checklist was used to assess the methodological quality of each study by two reviewers before an attempt was made to summarise the results. The median quality score was 70% of the maximum attainable score. Due to methodological issues, it was not possible to pool the data on the prevalence of oro-facial pain. Age, gender and psychological factors were found to be associated with OFP, however there was not enough information on other factors such as local mechanical and co-morbidities to draw any reliable conclusions. None of the factors fully fulfilled criteria for causality. CONCLUSIONS: There is a need for good quality epidemiological studies of oro-facial pain in the general population. To enable comprehensive examination of the aetiology of oro-facial pain, it is necessary to address a broad range of factors including demography and life-style, local mechanical factors, medical history and psychological factors. Future studies should recruit adequately sized samples for precise determination of the prevalence and detection of important associated factors. Data on potential confounders and effect modifiers should also be collected and adjusted for in the statistical analysis.

Adult↗
PubMed2005

The diagnostic interview for psychoses (DIP): development, reliability and applications.

BACKGROUND: We describe the development, reliability and applications of the Diagnostic Interview for Psychoses (DIP), a comprehensive interview schedule for psychotic disorders. METHOD: The DIP is intended for use by interviewers with a clinical background and was designed to occupy the middle ground between fully structured, lay-administered schedules, and semi-structured, psychiatrist-administered interviews. It encompasses four main domains: (a) demographic data; (b) social functioning and disability; (c) a diagnostic module comprising symptoms, signs and past history ratings; and (d) patterns of service utilization and patient-perceived need for services. It generates diagnoses according to several sets of criteria using the OPCRIT computerized diagnostic algorithm and can be administered either on-screen or in a hard-copy format. RESULTS: The DIP proved easy to use and was well accepted in the field. For the diagnostic module, inter-rater reliability was assessed on 20 cases rated by 24 clinicians: good reliability was demonstrated for both ICD-10 and DSM-III-R diagnoses. Seven cases were interviewed 2-11 weeks apart to determine test-retest reliability, with pairwise agreement of 0.8-1.0 for most items. Diagnostic validity was assessed in 10 cases, interviewed with the DIP and using the SCAN as 'gold standard': in nine cases clinical diagnoses were in agreement. CONCLUSIONS: The DIP is suitable for use in large-scale epidemiological studies of psychotic disorders, as well as in smaller studies where time is at a premium. While the diagnostic module stands on its own, the full DIP schedule, covering demography, social functioning and service utilization makes it a versatile multi-purpose tool.

Demography↗
PubMed2006

Epidemiological analysis of data for scrapie in Great Britain.

In recent years, the control or eradication of scrapie and any other transmissible spongiform encephalopathies (TSEs) possibly circulating in the sheep population has become a priority in Britain and elsewhere in Europe. A better understanding of the epidemiology of scrapie would greatly aid the development and evaluation of control and eradication strategies. Here we bound the range of key epidemiological parameters using a combination of relatively detailed pathogenesis and demography data, more limited data on susceptibility and incubation times, and recent survey data on scrapie incidence in Great Britain. These data are simultaneously analysed using mathematical models describing scrapie transmission between sheep and between flocks. Our analysis suggests that occurrence of scrapie in a flock typically provokes changes in flock management that promote termination of the outbreak, such as the adoption of selective breeding, and that a large fraction of cases (possibly over 80%) goes undetected. We show that the data analysed are consistent with the within-flock reproduction number of scrapie lying in the range 1.5-6, consistent with previous epidemiological studies.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2004

Self-concealment, social self-efficacy, acculturative stress, and depression in African, Asian, and Latin American international college students.

The primary purpose of this exploratory investigation was to examine self-concealment behaviors and social self-efficacy skills as potential mediators in the relationship between acculturative stress and depression in a sample of 320 African, Asian, and Latin American international college students. The authors found several differences by demography with regard to the study's variables. After controlling for regional group membership, sex, and English language fluency, they found that self-concealment and social self-efficacy did not serve as mediators in the relationship between African, Asian, and Latin American international students' acculturative stress experiences and depressive symptomatology. Implications of the findings are discussed.

Acculturation↗
PubMed1997

Empirical evidence for the severe but localized impact of AIDS on population structure.

Despite considerable speculation on the demographic impact of AIDS, there has been, until now, little scientific evidence to establish its existence or scale. Because of the widespread implications of these predictions, methods to combine demography and epidemiology to study empirical situations have been an urgent priority. This study derives the extent and mechanisms of demographic impacts of AIDS from routine data (the 1991 census) in a severely affected country, Uganda. Three characteristics are of particular note: first, the emergence of demographic impacts much earlier than previously estimated; second, their localization with negative population growth at parish but not at district or national scales; third, a greater impact on the number of children than previously predicted, due as much to changes in population fertility as mortality. The emergence of demographic impacts at this stage highlights original aspects of the interdependence of HIV infection and demographic growth not previously recorded and the need to target preventive interventions to youth in developing countries.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2003

Impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance in urban population in India.

AIMS: To study prevalence of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) in urban Indians and their demographic and anthropometric characteristics. METHODS: Data on capillary blood glucose (OGTT), anthropometric and demography details were available in 10 025 subjects (M : F 4711 : 5314) aged > or = 20 years. Glucose tolerance was categorized as normal, isolated IFG, isolated IGT, IFG + IGT and diabetes using the fasting and 2-h blood glucose (2hBG; 75-g glucose load) values. Subjects with known diabetes were excluded. RESULTS: Age-standardized prevalences of IFG, IGT and newly detected diabetes were 8.7%, 8.1% and 13.9%, respectively. IFG was more prevalent in women (9.8%) than in men (7.4%) (chi2 = 13.62, P = 0.0002), while the gender differences in IGT (men 8.4%, women 7.9%) and diabetes (men 13.3%, women 14.3%) were not significant. Body mass index and waist circumference were higher in glucose-intolerant groups than in normal glucose tolerance (NGT). Prevalence of diabetes, IGT and IFG + IGT increased with age. Among the IFG, 4% had diabetes and 27.1% had IGT using 2hBG criteria. In IFG, the fasting and 2hBG values were not correlated. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalences of IFG and IGT were similar in urban Indians and an overlap occurred in only less than half of these subjects. IFG was more common in women. Subjects with IFG were older and had more adverse anthropometric characteristics in comparison with NGT. IFG did not show an increasing trend with age.

Adult↗
PubMed1988

Sources of change in the process of population redistribution in the United States, 1955-1980.

"A framework for the investigation of changes in a continuing process of population redistribution [in the United States] is introduced in this paper.... Changes in migration behavior are the major source of change in redistribution patterns, and incremental logit models are used to test the hypothesis that changes in migration behavior are responsive to changes in the localization of employment and changes in the demography of the population.... The results support the hypothesis that patterns of population redistribution in the 1970s differed substantially from the patterns of earlier decades." Data are from official and other published sources.

Americas↗
PubMed2002

The future of hospitals.

In 2100, hospitals will focus on care of the sick, but the nature of health, sickness, treatment and care will be very different. Current hospital-based diagnostic services will be automated and deliverable in the home, resulting in a major shift of the burden of caring. This shift will eliminate today's community hospital. Work of low to medium complexity will be undertaken, usually by machines, in the home. Ambulatory centres, highly automated, highly accessible, will be customer friendly one-stop health shops of tomorrow. Machines will substantially replace human labour. Hospitals will remain cherished icons and centres of health knowledge, but will be a lesser component of the health care system than they are today, there will be less of them, and they will lose their dominance as the focus of health care training, policy and activity. The four major factors driving these changes are science & technology, demography, the economy and the environment. The "chaos factor" will be society's response to moral questions such as the diffusion of genetic technology. By 2100 we will be spending twice as much on health care as we are today and there will be less doctors relative to other health care workers, continuations of well-established twentieth century trends.

Australia↗