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Quantifying uncertainty in geoacoustic inversion. I. A fast Gibbs sampler approach.

This paper develops a new approach to estimating seabed geoacoustic properties and their uncertainties based on a Bayesian formulation of matched-field inversion. In Bayesian inversion, the solution is characterized by its posterior probability density (PPD), which combines prior information about the model with information from an observed data set. To interpret the multi-dimensional PPD requires calculation of its moments, such as the mean, covariance, and marginal distributions, which provide parameter estimates and uncertainties. Computation of these moments involves estimating multi-dimensional integrals of the PPD, which is typically carried out using a sampling procedure. Important goals for an effective Bayesian algorithm are to obtain efficient, unbiased sampling of these moments, and to verify convergence of the sample. This is accomplished here using a Gibbs sampler (GS) approach based on the Metropolis algorithm, which also forms the basis for simulated annealing (SA). Although GS can be computationally slow in its basic form, just as modifications to SA have produced much faster optimization algorithms, the GS is modified here to produce an efficient algorithm referred to as the fast Gibbs sampler (FGS). An automated convergence criterion is employed based on monitoring the difference between two independent FGS samples collected in parallel. Comparison of FGS, GS, and Monte Carlo integration for noisy synthetic benchmark test cases indicates that FGS provides rigorous estimates of PPD moments while requiring orders of magnitude less computation time.

Acoustics↗

Detection of signals with identical energy spectra but different waveforms under conditions of signal uncertainty.

Previous research has shown that a signal which may be one of two pure tones will be less detectable than a signal that is of constant, known frequency. In the present study, the effect of waveform uncertainty was evaluated by using pulse-train signals with identical power spectra but different phase spectra. Results for a group of 11 listeners suggest that when differences in the energy spectra of signals are eliminated, signal uncertainty has, at best, a small effect on detection performance.

Acoustic Stimulation↗

Off-frequency listening and masker uncertainty.

This experiment was designed to determine if masker uncertainty can reduce the effects of off-frequency listening on psychophysical tuning curves (PTCs). PTCs were determined in simultaneous masking with a 1-kHZ signal at 12 dV SPL, using an adaptive two-alternative forced-choice procedure. In a given run the center frequency on the narrow-band noise masker was either fixed, or varied randomly between up to eight values distributed equally above and below the signal frequency. In a control condition off-frequency listening was restricted using a "notched" broadband noise added to fixed-frequency masker. The notch was 200 HZ wide, centered at the signal frequency, and the spectrum level in the passband was - 8 dB SPL/Hz. The "restricted listening" PTCs were considerably broader than the "traditional" PTCs, but uncertainty about masker frequency had little effect. It appears that prior knowledge of masker frequency is not necessary for off-frequency listening to be effective.

Auditory Threshold↗

Signal uncertainty and psychometric functions in profile analysis.

Experiment 1 was conducted to compare the effects of signal frequency uncertainty on the detection of a change in spectral shape and on the detection of a tone in wideband noise. Results indicate that for both tasks the uncertainty effect was small, being on average about 3 dB. In a second experiment, psychometric functions were measured for the detection of changes in the spectral shape of multicomponent complexes. Psychometric functions for profile tasks have a 25-dB range and are similar to those measured for the detection of an increment in the level of a single sinusoid. These psychometric functions are different from those found when detecting a signal in noise, which typically have a 10-dB range. Three equations for the shape of the psychometric functions were compared. The difference in the resulting fits was small, thus preventing an unambiguous choice of functional form.

Acoustic Stimulation↗

Detection of interaural delay in bands of noise: effects of spectral interference combined with spectral uncertainty.

This study concerns two situations that could limit a listener's sensitivity to interaural temporal delay (ITD). The first is having to detect a "target" ITD in one spectral region when diotic energy is also present in remote and/or adjacent spectral regions. In such a situation, sensitivity to ITD is typically degraded, as compared to when no remote and/or adjacent diotic energy is present. Both the outcome and the paradigm are commonly termed "spectral interference." In the present study, spectral interference was measured using a broadband (100 Hz to 9 kHz) noise that was diotic, save for a restricted spectral region that was interaurally delayed. The portion of the noise that contained the ITD had a center frequency (CF) of either 300, 1200, 2400, or 4800 Hz and a bandwidth that was 40% of the CF. The second situation of interest was "spectral uncertainty." Here, the center frequency of the portion of the noise containing the ITD was varied (chosen from one of four possible CFs) on a trial-by-trial basis. Consequently, the listener was uncertain about which spectral region could contain the ITD. Data were also collected with one of four narrow bands of noise with the CFs and bandwidths identical to the interaurally delayed spectral regions used in the spectral interference and spectral uncertainty conditions. Within a block of trials, the center frequency of the narrow band of noise was either held constant or was randomly chosen from the set of four CFs.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Acoustic Stimulation↗

Incorporating measures of variability and uncertainty into the prediction of in vivo hepatic clearance from in vitro data.

The existing procedures for quantitative in vitro-in vivo clearance prediction can be significantly biased either by totally neglecting the existing variability and uncertainty by using mean parameter values or by implementing Monte Carlo simulation with statistical distribution of the parameters reconstructed from very small sets of data. The aim of the present study is to develop a methodology for the prediction of in vivo hepatic clearance in the presence of semiquantitative or qualitative data and accounting for the existing uncertainty and variability. The method consists of two steps: 1) transformation of the information available into fuzzy sets (fuzzification); and 2) computation of the in vivo clearance using arithmetic operations with fuzzy sets. To illustrate the approach, rat hepatocyte and microsomal data for eight benzodiazepine compounds are used. A comparison with a standard Monte Carlo procedure is made. The methodology proposed can be used when Monte Carlo simulation may be biased or cannot be implemented. The obtained fuzzy in vivo clearance can be used subsequently in fuzzy simulations of pharmacokinetic models.

Animals↗

Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations.

We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.

Journal Article↗

Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Even if we could determine a "safe" level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric CO2 is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty in allowable increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and allowable CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high, climate stabilization will require a massive transition to CO2 emission-free energy technologies.

Journal Article↗

Influence of satellite data uncertainties on the detection of externally forced climate change.

Two independent analyses of the same satellite-based radiative emissions data yield tropospheric temperature trends that differ by 0.1 degrees C per decade over 1979 to 2001. The troposphere warms appreciably in one satellite data set, while the other data set shows little overall change. These satellite data uncertainties are important in studies seeking to identify human effects on climate. A model-predicted "fingerprint" of combined anthropogenic and natural effects is statistically detectable only in the satellite data set with a warming troposphere. Our findings show that claimed inconsistencies between model predictions and satellite tropospheric temperature data (and between the latter and surface data) may be an artifact of data uncertainties.

Journal Article↗

Certainty and uncertainty in science: the subjectivistic concept of probability in physiology and medicine.

Most physiological scientists have restricted understanding of probability as relative frequency in a large collection (for example, of atoms). Most appropriate for the relatively circumscribed problems of the physical sciences, this understanding of probability as a physical property has conveyed the widespread impression that the "proper" statistical "method" can eliminate uncertainty by determining the "correct" frequency or frequency distribution. However, many relatively recent developments in the theory of probability and decision making deny such exalted statistical ability. Proponents of Bayes's subjectivist theory, for example, assert that probability is "degree of belief," a more tentative idea than relative frequency or physical probability, even though degree of belief assessment may utilize frequency information. In the subjectivist view, probability and statistics are means of expressing a consistent opinion (a probability) to handle uncertainty but never means to eliminate it. In the physiological sciences the contrast between the two views is critical, because problems dealt with are generally more complex than those of physics, requiring judgments and decisions. We illustrate this in testing the efficacy of penicillin by showing how the physical probability method of "hypothesis testing" may contribute to the erroneous idea that science consists of "verified truths" or "conclusive evidence" and how this impression is avoided in subjectivist probability analysis.

Bayes Theorem↗

Uncertainty in liver function assessment on the basis of single-point galactose concentration.

The uncertainty in liver function assessment based on single-sample galactose levels after galactose injection, in comparison to the standard procedure using the galactose elimination capacity (GEC), was assessed in 905 tests performed in a wide range of liver functions. The 45-min galactose levels significantly correlated with GEC, the correlation being better in subjects with a good liver function. In cirrhosis, the prediction using the 60-min galactose value was better than when the 45-min value was used. In the whole series, the 95% confidence interval of GEC predicted by 45-min galactose was as large as +/- 1.55mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) as absolute value, corresponding to a range from -41 to +47% of measured GEC. In cirrhosis, the 95% confidence interval was +/- 1.42 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) and between -40 and +46% of measured GEC. The 60-min values were more predictive, but in Child class C patients the average error was 0.42 mg x kg(-1) x min(-1) (95% confidence interval -0.64 to +1.49, corresponding to -39 to +76% of measured GEC). The uncertainty was maintained within +/- 10% of measured values only in 50% of the tests. We conclude that the single-point galactose test introduces a considerable error, mainly in patients with more advanced liver disease, which may bias the decision-making process.

Analysis of Variance↗

Stimulus uncertainty and speaker normalization processes in the perception of nasal consonants.

Previous research has noted a reduction in perceptual identification performance when the speaker varies from stimulus to stimulus and has interpreted this finding as an effect of a normalization process that compensates for variability in the physical content of the speech signal. The purpose of the present investigation was to examine whether the physical variability introduced by this experimental design can result in general stimulus uncertainty effects that extend beyond the realm of traditional delineations of normalization processes. The stimuli were short segments taken from nasal consonant + vowel syllables produced by 1 male adult, 1 female adult, and 2 children. Segments of 25 and 50 ms duration were edited from the nasal murmur and the onset of the vowel. The stimuli were ordered according to four variability conditions and presented to listeners for place of articulation identification. The results showed that identification was significantly reduced when variability affected either speaker identity or segment type. Further analyses revealed that segment variability impaired perception of all segment types approximately equally, but that the 50-ms vowel segments were selectively spared in the speaker variability condition. These findings indicate that general uncertainty effects should be considered in speech perception experiments, and that dynamic properties of speech are particularly important in the perceptual compensation for speaker variability.

Adult↗

Treatment of GAD. Targeting intolerance of uncertainty in two types of worry.

This study evaluates the efficacy of a cognitive-behavioral treatment for generalized anxiety disorder (GAD) that addresses two types of worries: (a) those about situations that are amenable to problem solving, and (b) those about situations that are not. The treatment's goal is to help patients become more tolerant of uncertainty by discriminating between both types of worry and applying the correct strategy to each type. A multiple baseline design was used and subjects were 4 adults with a primary diagnosis of GAD. Treatment outcome was assessed with daily self-monitoring, self-report questionnaires, and standardized clinician ratings. At posttest and 6-month follow-up, 3 of 4 subjects no longer met diagnostic criteria for GAD and had attained high end-state functioning. At 12-month follow-up, none of the subjects met GAD diagnostic criteria but end-state functioning was variable. The results also show that treatment outcome was highly related to change in intolerance of uncertainty.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

The use of bootstrap resampling to assess the uncertainty of cooper statistics.

The predictive abilities of two-group classification models (CMs) are often expressed in terms of their Cooper statistics. These statistics are often reported without any indication of their uncertainty, making it impossible to judge whether the predicted classifications are significantly better than the predictions made by a different CM, or whether the predictive performance of the CM exceeds predefined performance criteria in a statistically significant way. Bootstrap resampling routines are reported that provide a means of expressing the uncertainty associated with Cooper statistics. The usefulness of the bootstrapping routines is illustrated by constructing 95% confidence intervals for the Cooper statistics of four alternative skin-corrosivity tests (the rat skin transcutaneous electrical resistance assay, EPISKIN, Skin(2) and CORROSITEX), and four two-step sequences in which each in vitro test is used in combination with a physicochemical test for skin corrosion based on pH measurements.

Animal Testing Alternatives↗

Uncertainty about nest position influences systematic search strategies in desert ants.

Foraging desert ants return to their starting point, the nest, by means of path integration. If the path-integration vector has been run off but the nest has not yet been reached, the ants engage in systematic search behavior. This behavior results in a system of search loops of ever increasing size and finally leads to a search density profile peaking at the location where the path integration system has been reset to zero. In this study we investigate whether this systematic search behavior is adapted to the uncertainty resulting from the preceding foraging run. We show first that the longer the distances of the foraging excursions, the larger the errors occurring during path integration, and second that the ants adapt their systematic search strategy to their increasing uncertainty by extending their search pattern. Hence, the density of the systematic search pattern is correlated with the ants' confidence in their path integrator. This confidence decreases with increasing foraging distances.

Animals↗

Uncertainties in interspecies extrapolations of carcinogenicity.

The usual classification of results of animal carcinogenicity tests is positive or negative. Attempting to observe correlations between species using such results is complicated by differing test sensitivities. In these circumstances it is helpful to use models to represent the experimental data in a consistent way. Fitting the model parameters to the data allows computation of confidence limits and an assessment of concordance or discordance between different species in a way which accounts for differing test sensitivities. This paper describes this approach in detail for one class of models applied to the carcinogenicity test results of 187 of the NCI bioassay series, allowing comparison between B6C3F1 mice, Fischer 344 rats and Osborne Mendel rats. It is shown that the uncertainties in extrapolating between species are larger than generally acknowledged (a standard deviation of a factor of approximately 4.5), but that within these uncertainties there are few if any discordances.

Age Factors↗

The use of K X-ray fluorescence for measuring lead burden in epidemiological studies: high and low lead burdens and measurement uncertainty.

X-ray fluorescence (XRF), a rapid, noninvasive, low-radiation-dose method of measuring bone lead content, has emerged as a promising tool for providing an integrated estimate of low-level lead accumulation in epidemiological studies. Our group has settled on an XRF instrument that utilizes K X-rays (K-XRF) and normalizes the measurement to bone calcium. The unit of measurement provided is in micrograms of lead/gram bone mineral, an accurate proxy for micrograms of lead/gram bone ash. An estimate of measurement uncertainty is generated from the counting statistics and is theoretically dependent on several factors, primarily duration of measurement and bone mass. Data from pilot studies of community-exposed adults and workers with varying degrees of occupational lead exposure demonstrated that the K-XRF instrument can easily distinguish between populations with occupational versus environmental lead exposures. Among all subjects, bone lead increased with age. Larger measurement uncertainty was significantly associated with being female, greater subject weight, and smaller lead burdens.

Adult↗

Risk assessment of oxidant gases and particulate air pollutants: uncertainties and research needs.

The assessment of risks to human health associated with exposure to oxidant air pollutants has not received adequate attention despite the recognized public health threat posed by the ubiquitous presence of these compounds in the environment. In this article, research needs and uncertainties at each of the steps in the risk assessment of oxidant air pollutants are identified: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Many of these limitations and uncertainties arise at the interface between the laboratory and the regulatory arenas. Therefore, as a case study, relevant methodologic problems associated with the application of experimental findings to the risk assessment of respirable dusts are also discussed. These issues include the extrapolation of animal data to the human case and extrapolation from high-dose to environmentally relevant, low-level exposures.

Air Pollutants↗