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Probabilistic motion estimation based on temporal coherence.

We develop a theory for the temporal integration of visual motion motivated by psychophysical experiments. The theory proposes that input data are temporally grouped and used to predict and estimate the motion flows in the image sequence. This temporal grouping can be considered a generalization of the data association techniques that engineers use to study motion sequences. Our temporal grouping theory is expressed in terms of the Bayesian generalization of standard Kalman filtering. To implement the theory, we derive a parallel network that shares some properties of cortical networks. Computer simulations of this network demonstrate that our theory qualitatively accounts for psychophysical experiments on motion occlusion and motion outliers. In deriving our theory, we assumed spatial factorizability of the probability distributions and made the approximation of updating the marginal distributions of velocity at each point. This allowed us to perform local computations and simplified our implementation. We argue that these approximations are suitable for the stimuli we are considering (for which spatial coherence effects are negligible).

Bayes Theorem↗

Dermatoglyphics and acute lymphocytic leukemia in children.

Cellular features of acute lymphocytic leukemia (ALL) in children suggest that it originates in abnormal embryogenesis. Because palmar flexion creases develop in the embryo at the same time as the blood-forming cells, and because both arise from mesodermal tissue, insults to the embryo that may lead to leukemic changes in the blood-forming cells may also result in aberrant palmar crease patterns. This study investigated the relationship between aberrant palmar creases and ALL in children who developed leukemia at age 6 years or younger. Odds ratios and chi squares demonstrated significant differences in bilateral aberrant palmar creases between ALL children and relatives (P less than .025). Differences were not explained by familial clustering of aberrant creases. These results support the theory that the insult occurred during pregnancy, probably in the first trimester. There were no significant differences in either bilateral or unilateral aberrant palmar creases between ALL children and their siblings. All children with bilateral aberrant creases had a higher incidence of central nervous system involvement (50%) than those without bilateral aberrant creases (6%). This may reflect a preleukemic change in utero before the time the blood-brain barrier has been established.

California↗

A simulation study on the accuracy of position and effect estimates of linked QTL and their asymptotic standard deviations using multiple interval mapping in an F(2) scheme.

Approaches like multiple interval mapping using a multiple-QTL model for simultaneously mapping QTL can aid the identification of multiple QTL, improve the precision of estimating QTL positions and effects, and are able to identify patterns and individual elements of QTL epistasis. Because of the statistical problems in analytically deriving the standard errors and the distributional form of the estimates and because the use of resampling techniques is not feasible for several linked QTL, there is the need to perform large-scale simulation studies in order to evaluate the accuracy of multiple interval mapping for linked QTL and to assess confidence intervals based on the standard statistical theory. From our simulation study it can be concluded that in comparison with a monogenetic background a reliable and accurate estimation of QTL positions and QTL effects of multiple QTL in a linkage group requires much more information from the data. The reduction of the marker interval size from 10 cM to 5 cM led to a higher power in QTL detection and to a remarkable improvement of the QTL position as well as the QTL effect estimates. This is different from the findings for (single) interval mapping. The empirical standard deviations of the genetic effect estimates were generally large and they were the largest for the epistatic effects. These of the dominance effects were larger than those of the additive effects. The asymptotic standard deviation of the position estimates was not a good criterion for the accuracy of the position estimates and confidence intervals based on the standard statistical theory had a clearly smaller empirical coverage probability as compared to the nominal probability. Furthermore the asymptotic standard deviation of the additive, dominance and epistatic effects did not reflect the empirical standard deviations of the estimates very well, when the relative QTL variance was smaller/equal to 0.5. The implications of the above findings are discussed.

Animals↗

Backpropagation and adaptive resonance theory in predicting suicidal risk.

The ability of backpropagation and adaptive resonance theory (ART) neural networks to predict the probability of complete suicide, within a two year span, in major psychiatric patients was investigated. Variables associated with suicide risk were collected from the files of 161 hospitalized psychiatric patients with a 10 year or greater history of illness. 84 patients were hospitalized due to suicide attempts and 77 had no previous suicide attempts or ideations. Suicide attempts were rated as medically serious suicide attempts (MSSA) or non-MSSA and used for training the systems. The ability of the neural networks was evaluated by screening the extremes of the suicidal spectrum (1) 54 records of patients who committed suicide and (2) 150 records of patients who never had suicidal thoughts. The records were taken from 3 hospitals, in various geographic regions in Israel. Neither neural network system is reliable in predicting suicide, however, records from one hospital, Gehah Hospital, were better identified than those from the two other hospitals (p < 0.05 for PPV; p < 0.01 for specificity). At present, neural networks are not reliable instruments for evaluating suicidal risk due to the significant number of false positive results. When low risk was indicated reliability was greater (NPV = 75.28%, specificity = 97.10% with ART; NPV = 91.76%, specificity = 95.12% with backpropagation). However, PPV, NPV and specificity rates of both systems achieved with Gehah Hospital records suggest that using a direct-subjective questionnaire may produce better results in the future. ART and backpropagation performed similarly in all measurements.

Humans↗

Combining image degradations in a recognition task.

Six experiments are reported that investigate the effect on form recognition performance of combining three kinds of stimulus degradations: local area averaging of intensities, low-pass spatial frequency filtering, and random dot visual interference. The effects are shown to be more complicated than previously reported in simple demonstrations. The complexity of the results suggests that models based on single stimulus attributes such as energy or spatial frequency spectrum probably cannot account for the data. Eclectic theories that invoke combinations of redundant processes may be necessary for describing visual recognition phenomena, even within the limited domain examined in this study.

Adult↗

Epithelioid hemangioendothelioma, multiple focal nodular hyperplasias, and cavernous hemangiomas of the liver.

Malignant vascular neoplasms of the liver are uncommon. We report the case of a young woman who developed an epithelioid hemangioendothelioma of the liver associated with multiple focal nodular hyperplasias and hepatic cavernous hemangiomas. Such an unusual association is probably not fortuitous and could support the theory that focal nodular hyperplasia is a reaction to an abnormal vascular supply rather than a true neoplasm.

Adult↗

[Diagnostic value of the prick test and tissue RAST in allergic nasal polyposis].

Nasal polyposis is often accompanied by an allergy against inhaled allergens or various foods and drugs. We studied the relationship between nasal polyposis and type-I allergy, using a preoperative skin test on 43 patients with nasal polyposis. This was followed by RAST test of serum, nasal secretion and homogenized tissue from the polyps removed. The rest of the polyp material was examined histologically and cytologically for tissue eosinophilia. A type-I allergy was proved in 40% of the patients by the presence of the same IgE antibodies in the skin test and all the RASTs, accompanied by a distinct eosinophilia in the polyp tissue. In a further 40% of the cases most of the tests were positive, suggesting a probable allergic disposition. These results support the theory of an allergic genesis of many nasal polyps. The tissue RAST especially is of great diagnostic value. Thus, postoperative anti-allergic treatment of these patients should be successful.

Allergens↗

Measurement of direct and indirect forms of anti-HIV-1 ADCC: implications for other retroviral disease.

Among the varied cytotoxic immune reactivities elicited as a result of HIV-1 infection are two forms of non-MHC restricted cytotoxicity--namely, indirect and direct ADCC. Since these reactivities are directed at both HIV-1 infected as well as gp120 coated targets, there is a potential for anti-HIV-1 ADCC to play both a beneficial as well as a pathogenic role in the natural history of HIV-1 disease. Resolution of these issues will be of great importance to the development of future preventive and interventive therapeutic strategies for AIDS. The direct and indirect forms of ADCC described herein are, most probably, not unique to HIV-1. In theory, any viral disease, retroviral or otherwise, in which high titers of anti-envelope antibodies persist in an environment rich in Fc-receptor bearing effector NK/K cells would be likely to have some component of direct ADCC as part of the host anti-viral response. With this in mind it is imperative that those researchers involved in characterizing cellular anti-viral cytotoxicities do not mistake direct ADCC for another form of CTL activity. These two highly potent reactivities operate independently and are subject to different control mechanisms, both positive and negative, anti-viral ADCC has too long been regarded as a strictly in vitro phenomenon with no in vivo counterpart. Our studies demonstrating direct forms of ADCC in infected patients will hopefully have some impact in forcing a careful re-evaluation of this extremely important issue.

Antibody Specificity↗

[Pleural effusion induced by bromocriptine].

Bromocriptine, a derivative of ergot of rye, is used in high doses for the treatment of Parkinson's disease and may be responsible for pleuro-pulmonary complications. We report a case of a 72 year old patient treated for 2 years for Parkinson's disease with a daily dose of 30 mgms. of bromocriptine and in whom a pleural effusion, initially unilateral then bilateral, was discovered with a deterioration in the general physical state. The effusion was a transudate and examination did not give any clues as to aetiology, there was a rapidly favourable outcome following the cessation of treatment. Amongst the respiratory complications of bromocriptine it is the pleuro-pulmonary fibrosis which is most frequently reported. The cases of isolated pleural effusions are rare and are generally exudates. Several hypotheses have been put forward to explain the pathogenesis of these disorders: there is a theory that the molecule induces a toxic fibrogenesis, there is a vascular theory analogous with the secondary effects of methysergide and finally immunological theory. The frequency of the disorder is probably underestimated and these drug reactions justify a close follow up for any respiratory problems in patients who are subjected to treatment with bromocriptine.

Aged↗

Estimation of interaction function gamma(x) with sparsely ionizing radiation.

The interaction function gamma(chi), which was introduced in the theory of dual radiation action as the probability that two energy transfers separated by distance chi combine with each other to produce a lesion, was estimated with sparsely ionizing radiation (60Co gamma rays and 40 kV X rays). Gamma(chi) was deduced on the assumption that the sensitive matrix is made up of small spherical flocculi distributed over the cell nucleus. The diameter of a flocculus was estimated at (4.0-11.2) X 10(-8) m when the diameter of the cell nucleus d was assumed to be 5 microns, and (4.0-11.4) X 10(-8) m when d was assumed to be 10 microns. It seems reasonable to hypothesize that the flocculus corresponds to the linker DNA in the chromatin structure of DNA, because the size of the linker DNA as a target (about 40 nm) is consistent with the diameter of flocculi obtained in this study.

Animals↗

Testing selection at a single locus.

In this paper some methods for testing for the presence of selection at a single locus in a single population are discussed. It is assumed that at that locus only two alleles are present, and that the allele frequencies are observed for a number of generations. Tests are derived for detecting heterozygote advantage, genic selection and more general selection. Some simulation studies illustrate the power, or lack of power, of the tests, and show the connection between on the tests and the theory of Watterson (1979, Advances in Applied Probability 11, 14-30).

Alleles↗

[Medicine and statistics].

Doctors as researchers often resort to hypothesis testing and confidence intervals in the statistical analysis of study results. On the one hand, the use of statistical software has made this task easier. On the other hand, this has not contributed to neither a better understanding of statistical concepts nor to a seminal cooperation between doctors and statisticians. This note shows that the classical statistical theory, also called frequentist or Fisherian, offers probability statements that are very indirect ones. Bayesian statistics, on the other hand, gives a probability statement which is a more direct answer to the research question. Of course, this latter approach would hardly be considered without a close cooperation with an statistician. An improvement in the meaning of the probability statements may be seen as a gain in quality. An effective cooperation with statisticians, an issue that is more ethical than methodological, is directed to achieving a research of a better quality, so avoiding the scandal of poor medical research.

Humans↗

On the quantum physical theory of subjective antedating.

This paper explores the question of mental events causing neural events through the actions of the quantum physical probability field. After showing how quantum mechanical descriptions pertain to the influence that mental events have upon neural events, the question of Libet's "delay-and-antedating" observation is examined in the light of quantum mechanical description, specifically in the action of the probability field. The probability field is the product of two quantum wave functions. According to the transactional interpretation (TI) of quantum physics these wave functions can be pictured as offer and echo waves--the offer wave passing from an initial event to a future event and the echo wave passing from the future event back in time towards the initial event. I propose that two events so correlated are experienced as one and the same event; that is, any two quantum physically correlated events separated in time or space will constitute a single experience--an event in "consciousness." Using the TI then suggests a quantum physical resolution of the "delay-and-antedating" hypothesis/paradox put forward by Libet, B., Wright, E. W., Feinstein, B., & Pearl, D. K. (Brain, 1979, 102, 193). It also offers a first step towards the development of a quantum physical theory of subjective antedating based on the transactional interpretation of quantum mechanics.

Brain↗

Translocation of rodlike polymers through membrane channels.

A theory of channel-facilitated transport of long rodlike macromolecules through thin membranes under the influence of a driving force of arbitrary strength is developed. Analytic expressions are derived for the translocation probability and the Laplace transform of the probability density of time that a macromolecule spends in the channel. We also derive expressions for the (conditional) probability densities of time spent in the channel by translocating and nontranslocating (returning back) macromolecules. These results are used to study how the distribution of the macromolecule lifetime in the channel depends on a polymer chain length and the driving force. It is shown that depending on the values of the parameters, the lifetime probability density may have one or two peaks. Our theory is a generalization of the theory developed by Lubensky and Nelson, who were inspired by recent experiments on driven translocation of single-stranded RNA and DNA molecules through single channels in narrow membranes.

Biopolymers↗

Prognostic factors in neuroblastomas treated in Denmark from 1943 to 1980. A statistical estimate of prognosis based on 253 cases.

Multivariate analysis on an unselected patient population consisting of all 253 children treated for neuroblastoma in Denmark during 1943 to 1980 shows that stage, age, and treatment given are independent prognostic variables. Calendar year of diagnosis, sex of the patient, and site of primary tumor were not significant prognostic factors. Further analysis shows that multimodal treatment with surgery, irradiation, and chemotherapy, especially in patients older than 1 year of age with Stage II disease, has influenced the survival significantly. The fact that age at diagnosis and the administration of chemotherapy have independent prognostic significance can be explained by the theory that all neuroblastomas are virtually congenital; therefore, the difference in age at diagnosis largely reflects the difference in growth rates of the tumor. Thus, according to this theory, age may be a measure of the probability of micrometastases in addition to the clinical extent or stage of the disease, as it represents the duration of the disease. Additional chemotherapy may thus have eradicated these micrometastases in the older children, since the age influence on Stage II disease disappeared when multimodal treatment was given in this study. The implications for treatment policy are discussed in view of this theory.

Age Factors↗

Approach to quantum Kramers' equation and barrier crossing dynamics.

We have presented a simple approach to quantum theory of Brownian motion and barrier crossing dynamics. Based on an initial coherent state representation of bath oscillators and an equilibrium canonical distribution of quantum-mechanical mean values of their co-ordinates and momenta we have derived a c number generalized quantum Langevin equation. The approach allows us to implement the method of classical non-Markovian Brownian motion to realize an exact generalized non-Markovian quantum Kramers' equation. The equation is valid for arbitrary temperature and friction. We have solved this equation in the spatial diffusion-limited regime to derive quantum Kramers' rate of barrier crossing and analyze its variation as a function of the temperature and friction. While almost all the earlier theories rest on quasiprobability distribution functions (e.g., Wigner function) and path integral methods, the present work is based on true probability distribution functions and is independent of path integral techniques. The theory is a natural extension of the classical theory to quantum domain and provides a unified description of thermally activated processes and tunneling.

Journal Article↗

Willis and Steno on muscles: rediscovery of a 17th-century biological theory.

Niels Stensen in 1667 in the first systematic analysis of muscle fibre contraction described the unipennate actuator of skeletal muscles, now applied in computer programs simulating muscular action. Three years later Thomas Willis partially approved Stensen's description and brought an exact anatomical illustration from an ox, probably drawn by Christopher Wren. This new concept and theory was, however, refuted by Mayow, Borelli, Johann Bernoulli, Boerhaave and von Haller and became almost forgotten until the anatomical rediscovery in 1981.

History, 17th Century↗

Should physicians be bayesian agents?

Because physicians use scientific inference for the generalizations of individual observations and the application of general knowledge to particular situations, the Bayesian probability solution to the problem of induction has been proposed and frequently utilized. Several problems with the Bayesian approach are introduced and discussed. These include: subjectivity, the favoring of a weak hypothesis, the problem of the false hypothesis, the old evidence/new theory problem and the observation that physicians are not currently Bayesians. To the complaint that the prior probability is subjective, Bayesians reply that there will be ultimate convergence, but the rebuttal to this is that there will not be uniform convergence. Secondly, since the Bayesian scheme favors a weak hypothesis, theories turn out to be a gratuitous risk. The problem with the false hypothesis comes out in the denominator of the theorem, revealing that a factor which is not a theory at all is being considered in the reasoning. On the old evidence/new theory problem old evidence cannot confirm a new theory so that the posterior probability will equal the prior probability. Finally, empiric studies have shown that current physicians are not Bayesians. But on consideration of Bayesian inference as a system of inference, it can be reasoned that physicians should be Bayesians. However, the problem of physicians' and patients' own subjectivity continue to plague this system of medical decision making.

Bayes Theorem↗