[The role and significance of demographic projections in socioeconomic development].
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"Population ageing has emerged as one of the crucial problems facing developed countries. In Finland, the old population (aged 65 and over) has doubled in numbers over the past 30 years. The phenomena underlying this ageing trend include a decline in fertility, increase of the average life expectancy, and the effects of migration. Considerable regional differences in population ageing can be observed between Finland's provinces, municipalities and between their different parts. The number of the elderly is projected to increase in all provinces, the highest relative increase taking place in the provinces of Lapland, Uusimaa and Oulu between 1990-2020." (SUMMARY IN ENG)
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"This paper describes the use of current estimates of population and economic activity for London's wards in developing small area social indicators. The particular focus is on changes in the spatial pattern of mortality and unemployment differences in the 1980s in relation to the wider incidence of deprivation in wards. A conditional model of change is developed for mortality and unemployment indices to assess whether spatial differences are widening over time and how far changes in these indices are linked to social class and deprivation. The evidence is of widening unemployment differences, and a slight widening in premature mortality."
"This paper investigates the application of general linear modelling principles to analysing migration flows between areas. Particular attention is paid to specifying the form of the regression and error components, and the nature of departures from Poisson randomness. Extensions to take account of spatial and temporal correlation are discussed as well as constrained estimation. The issue of specification bears on the testing of migration theories, and assessing the role migration plays in job and housing markets: the direction and significance of the effects of economic variates on migration depends on the specification of the statistical model. The application is in the context of migration in London and South East England in the 1970s and 1980s."
"The objective of the present paper is to give a brief overview of the subject matter of the formal demography of the family. Selected references are included, but no attempt is made to be exhaustive. No discussion of socio-economic determinants or consequences is included, because this overview is limited to the formal aspects of the field. "The...paper is divided into five parts. The first deals with the descriptive analysis of family and household size and composition, from both a cross-sectional and a longitudinal perspective. The next two sections discuss, in order, demographic determinants and consequences. This is followed by a brief section on projection methods and the conclusion."
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"The method of expected number of deaths is an integral part of standardization of vital rates, which is one of the oldest statistical techniques. The expected number of deaths was calculated in 18th century actuarial mathematics...but the method seems to have been forgotten, and was reinvented in connection with 19th century studies of geographical and occupational variations of mortality.... It is noted that standardization of rates is intimately connected to the study of relative mortality, and a short description of very recent developments in the methodology of that area is included." (SUMMARY IN FRE)
"When there are two or more data systems and none of them enumerates the population at an acceptable completeness level, concern about the bias due to underenumeration suggests an estimator which makes joint use of data compiled by the combined imperfect data systems. Conventional dual system estimators are based on the existence of two separate data collection systems. Dual system network estimators assume a main survey and a follow-up quality check survey. The main survey adopts a multiplicity counting rule that combines two mutually exclusive partial counting rules." Three dual system network estimators are presented. "One was previously proposed by Sirken (1979) and is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The two other estimators are proposed as potential improvements, although neither of them is the natural analogue of the conventional dual system estimator. The design effects of the three estimators are compared analytically and empirically with one another, and with those of the single system conventional and network estimators." (summary in FRE)
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"The purpose of this study was to calculate the headship rate for time-series analysis,...to review the patterns of changing headship rates and related factors and to estimate the headship rates to 2010 [for the Republic of Korea].... The data used for this study were derived from the Population and Housing Census Reports from 1960 through 1990, U.N. Manual VII and household-related literature....[The authors predict that] the total headship rate will maintain a uniform pattern of decrease and increase by specific age and peak headship rates will gradually extend to younger people.... Rural headship rates will decrease steadily and be greatly influenced by age structure.... In addition, the difference in headship rates between male and female will be great....Lastly, both the divorced and the single will have increasing headship rates for all ages [with] the single [having] the most rapid increase rate after their thirties." (SUMMARY IN ENG)