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Developing decentralized capacity for disaster prevention: lessons from food security and nutrition monitoring in Malawi.

Lack of sufficient analytical capacity in most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa has been frequently mentioned as a major factor limiting the effectiveness of drought management interventions. In this article we describe an approach used in Malawi for the past three years to develop a decentralized capacity to analyse drought management and disaster prevention programmes. A conceptual framework is presented which identifies the areas in which capacity strengthening is required and lessons from the Malawi experience are presented. Various issues relating to the efficiency of capacity building programmes are discussed. We argue that continuous dialogue between development researchers and decision-makers, and between trainers in academic institutions and donor agencies, is essential for achieving the goals of improved capacity for drought management and disaster prevention.

Disaster Planning↗

Towards a redefinition of security in Central America: the case of natural disasters.

Over the past 25 years Central America has suffered a number of major disasters: the Managua Earthquake (1972), Hurricane Fifi (1974), the Guatemalan Earthquake (1976), the San Salvador Earthquake (1986) and Hurricane Joan (1988). These events are briefly described, with special reference to their political aspects and implications. Recognition of the political importance of disasters in Central America leads to a questioning of the traditional notion that security is essentially a matter of defending the state from outside aggression. It is suggested that the analysis of disasters should be part of the debate that is currently underway in international relations about redefining the concept of security in the post-Cold War world.

Central America↗

Neoliberalism and criticisms of earthquake insurance arrangements in New Zealand.

Global collapse of the Fordist-Keynesian regime of accumulation and an attendant philosophical shift in New Zealand politics to neoliberalism have prompted criticisms of, and changes to, the Earthquake and War Damage Commission. Earthquake insurance arrangements made 50 years ago in an era of collectivist, welfarist political action are now set in an environment in which emphasis is given to competitive relations and individualism. Six specific criticisms of the Commission are identified, each of which is founded in the rhetoric and ideology of a neoliberal political project which has underpinned radical social and economic changes in New Zealand since the early 1980s. On the basis of those criticisms, and in terms of the Earthquake Commission Act 1993, the Commission has been restructured. The new Commission is withdrawing from its primary position as the nation's non-residential property hazards insurer and is restricting its coverage of residential properties.

Disaster Planning↗

Protecting tourists from death and injury in coastal storms.

Hurricanes, typhoons, tsunamis and other storms force thousands to flee coastal regions every year. In many cases, resort areas have been severely damaged and tourists placed in jeopardy. This article examines ways tourist businesses can and already have protected holiday-makers from coastal storm hazards through emergency evacuation and other measures. Using data from a sample of large and small hotels in New Orleans, Louisiana, we find considerable variation in protective behaviour. To explain this variation, we look at how perceptions and preparedness differ by both managerial and organisational characteristics. We then suggest a variety of measures that can be taken by hotels in coastal resort areas to reduce risk.

Disaster Planning↗

Disaster management and government intervention in PNG: the case of Lae.

This paper describes government intervention in two flood disasters in Lae before and after the establishment of the Papua New Guinea disaster management body. It first describes the objectives behind the establishment of this, and second, it examines the organisational response to the 1983 and 1992 disasters in Lae. Disaster response in terms of relief operations is generally prompt and spontaneous but can at best be described as haphazard, unsystematic and often uncoordinated. Both national and provincial disaster committees are, in many aspects, ill equipped in terms of capabilities, skills and resources. Many disaster operations are unable to ensure an immediate return of the victim's lives to normality--the ultimate objective of any disaster management.

Disaster Planning↗

Structural vs non-structural flood-alleviation measures in the Yangtze Delta: a pilot survey of floodplain residents' preferences.

This study was initiated to test if structural flood-alleviation measures were more popular than non-structural measures among the floodplain residents of the Yangtze Delta, because of the long tradition of "living with embankments and other flood control structures'. The results of a pilot questionnaire survey among 239 respondents from four sample villages of two typical floodplains of the delta indicated that, contrary to expectations, the non-structural measure of flood insurance attracted more favourable responses (97 per cent) than any one of the structural measures, although the latter were also frequently selected by the respondents (64-92 per cent). A number of multivariate logit regressions between each of the preferred flood-alleviation measures and the respondents' flood adaptations identified some of the determinants of these preferences. For a more complete explanation of the causes of popularity of various flood-alleviation measures, further research should incorporate a behavioural model with trade-offs for alternative measures.

Adult↗

The health effects of earthquakes in the mid-1990s.

This paper gives an overview of the global pattern of casualties in earthquakes which occurred during the 30-month period from 1 September 1993 to 29 February 1996. It also describes some of the behavioural and logistical regularities associated with mortality and morbidity in these events. Of 83 earthquakes studied, there were casualties in 49. Lethal earthquakes occurred in rapid succession in Indonesia, China, Colombia and Iran. In the events studied, a disproportionate number of deaths and injuries occurred during the first six hours of the day and in earthquakes with magnitudes between 6.5 and 7.4. Ratios of death to injury varied markedly (though with some averages close to 1:3), as did the nature and causes of mortality and morbidity and the proportion of serious to slight injuries. As expected on the basis of previous knowledge, few problems were caused by post-earthquake illness and disease. Also, as expected, building collapse was the principal source of casualties: tsunamis, landslides, debris flows and bridge collapses were the main secondary causes. In addition, new findings are presented on the temporal sequence of casualty estimates after seismic disaster. In synthesis, though mortality in earthquakes may have been low in relation to long-term averages, the interval of time studied was probably typical of other periods in which seismic catastrophes were relatively limited in scope.

Building Codes↗

El Niño platforms: participatory disaster response in Peru.

Climate change is expected to lead to greater extremes (droughts and floods) in river regimes around the world. While the number of major calamities is predicted to rise, the efforts of the public sector, experts and local stakeholders are badly coordinated. Consequently, aid does not reach target groups, resulting in unnecessary losses. Hence, there is a need for more participatory and integrative approaches. To ensure a more concerted response to climate-induced disasters, stakeholders could coordinate and negotiate within Multi-Stakeholder Platforms. Such roundtables are increasingly being established for vision-building and integrated water resource management, but could be employed in disaster management as well. After discussing the advantages and disadvantages of participation, this article trace the rise of and the problems facing two 'El Niño' platforms: one in Ica, a city on the Peruvian coast that flooded unexpectedly in January 1998, and one in Ayacucho, which saw a climate change-induced drought around the same time. The issue of internal and external legitimacy receives particular emphasis.

Community Networks↗

Global sea-level rise is recognised, but flooding from anthropogenic land subsidence is ignored around northern Manila Bay, Philippines.

Land subsidence resulting from excessive extraction of groundwater is particularly acute in East Asian countries. Some Philippine government sectors have begun to recognise that the sea-level rise of one to three millimetres per year due to global warming is a cause of worsening floods around Manila Bay, but are oblivious to, or ignore, the principal reason: excessive groundwater extraction is lowering the land surface by several centimetres to more than a decimetre per year. Such ignorance allows the government to treat flooding as a lesser problem that can be mitigated through large infrastructural projects that are both ineffective and vulnerable to corruption. Money would be better spent on preventing the subsidence by reducing groundwater pumping and moderating population growth and land use, but these approaches are politically and psychologically unacceptable. Even if groundwater use is greatly reduced and enlightened land-use practices are initiated, natural deltaic subsidence and global sea-level rise will continue to aggravate flooding, although at substantially lower rates.

Disaster Planning↗

Influence of an evacuation in February 1995 in The Netherlands on the seizure frequency in patients with epilepsy: a controlled study.

PURPOSE: Stress is often noted by patients to be a precipitating factor in causing seizures. No precise data are, however, available. In 1995 for 250,000 inhabitants in The Netherlands, a serious life event occurred within a period of seven days. An extreme high water level in the province of Gelderland, with the possibility of a flood, made the government decide to evacuate people and their livestock. This retrospective study investigated the influence of this forced evacuation on the seizure frequency of patients with epilepsy, compared with patients of the same age and type of epilepsy living outside the evacuation area at the time of the threatening flood. METHODS: Information regarding epilepsy syndrome, seizure type, and frequency was derived from seizure diaries and medical histories of 30 evacuated patients and 30 matched control patients. RESULTS: Of the 30 evacuees, eight showed an increase and one a decrease in seizure frequency during or shortly after the evacuation period, compared with one and zero control patients, respectively. These results proved to be statistically significant (p < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Our data support the hypothesis that there is a relation, albeit small, between a stressful life event and seizure frequency.

Comorbidity↗

Natural disasters in the United States as release agents of oil, chemicals, or radiological materials between 1980-1989: analysis and recommendations.

Generally, hazards research and literature has treated natural and technological disasters as separate entities. This study attempts to determine how frequently interaction between these two types of disaster took place in the United States from 1980-1989. Data were collected by performing a literature review, contacting organizations and individuals active in hazards research and mitigation, and through a questionnaire sent to the emergency management agencies of all 50 states. The consensus derived from the data is that the number of incidents where natural and technological disasters interact is rising while preparations, which recognize the complications inherent in such combined events, remain cursory. There is a pressing need for states to record, and make available to managers, information regarding the number of combined natural/technological events affecting their areas. Only when such data are available will it be possible to make appropriate decisions regarding the best way to reduce the effects of a natural disaster causing a catastrophic release of hazardous materials.

Disaster Planning↗

Predicting emergency evacuation and sheltering behavior: a structured analytical approach.

We offer a general approach to predicting public compliance with emergency recommendations. It begins with a formal risk assessment of an anticipated emergency, whose parameters include factors potentially affecting and affected by behavior, as identified by social science research. Standard procedures are used to elicit scientific experts' judgments regarding these behaviors and dependencies, in the context of an emergency scenario. Their judgments are used to refine the model and scenario, enabling local emergency coordinators to predict the behavior of citizens in their area. The approach is illustrated with a case study involving a radiological dispersion device (RDD) exploded in downtown Pittsburgh, PA. Both groups of experts (national and local) predicted approximately 80-90% compliance with an order to evacuate workplaces and 60-70% compliance with an order to shelter in place at home. They predicted 10% lower compliance for people asked to shelter at the office or to evacuate their homes. They predicted 10% lower compliance should the media be skeptical, rather than supportive. They also identified preparatory policies that could improve public compliance by 20-30%. We consider the implications of these results for improving emergency risk assessment models and for anticipating and improving preparedness for disasters, using Hurricane Katrina as a further case in point.

Behavior↗

A research method for the study of psychological and psychiatric aspects of disaster.

This paper attempts to draw together some of the current questions related to the methodology of exploring the psychological and psychiatric aspects of human response to disaster. It sets out some of the key areas in which research questions might be mounted. A range of relevant instruments are suggested. The value of a structured interview which can explore issues of relevance to disaster victims is demonstrated. Early screening measures and proposals regarding these, as well as the particular instruments for longer term follow-up and assessment of outcome, are discussed in considerable detail. The article concludes with an overview of the principal issues to be addressed in methodology research, and emphasises the need for a collaborative approach using core items so that studies embracing different disasters and different countries can have some comparative basis.

Adaptation, Psychological↗