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PubMed2000

Carrying capacity and demographic stochasticity: scaling behavior of the stochastic logistic model.

The stochastic logistic model is the simplest model that combines individual-level demography with density dependence. It explicitly or implicitly underlies many models of biodiversity of competing species, as well as non-spatial or metapopulation models of persistence of individual species. The model has also been used to study persistence in simple disease models. The stochastic logistic model has direct relevance for questions of limiting similarity in ecological systems. This paper uses a biased random walk heuristic to derive a scaling relationship for the persistence of a population under this model, and discusses its implications for models of biodiversity and persistence. Time to extinction of a species under the stochastic logistic model is approximated by the exponential of the scaling quantity U=(R-1)(2) N/R(R+1), where N is the habitat size and R is the basic reproductive number.

Animals↗

PubMed1985

Clinical, demographic, and genetic aspects of the Werner syndrome in Japan.

A total of 196 typical patients with the Werner syndrome, a caricature of aging, was studied to define the details of the clinical manifestations, demography and genetic aspects in Japan. Most of the previously reported clinical characteristics and the autosomal recessive inheritance of this syndrome were confirmed, but no significant linkage was revealed between specific HLA type and the Werner syndrome. The frequency of the Werner syndrome in Japan was estimated using two methods which indicated approximately 300 cases among 100 million people.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

The genetic structure of metapopulations and conservation biology.

A range of models describing metapopulations is surveyed and their implications for conservation biology are described. An overview of the use of both population genetic elements and demographic theory in metapopulation models is given. It would appear that most of the current models suffer from either the use of over-simplified demography or the avoidance of selectively important genetic factors. The scale for which predictions are made by the various models is often obscure. A conceptual framework for describing metapopulations by utilising the concept of fitness of local populations is provided and some examples are given. The expectation that any general theory, such as that of metapopulations, can make useful predictions for particular problems of conservation is examined and compared with the prevailing 'state of the art' recommendations.

Animals↗

PubMed1990

Demographic change and social security: some elements of a complex relationship.

"This paper gives an overview [of] some central aspects of the highly complex topic...[of] understanding effects of structural changes in demography and economy on social security." The impact of an aging population on health and pension schemes is discussed. Changes in retirement ages and labor force participation and the restructuring of public expenditures are explored as possible solutions to government financial problems. The geographical focus is on developed countries.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

Monitoring international migration flows in Europe. Towards a statistical data base combining data from different sources.

"The paper reviews techniques developed in demography, geography and statistics that are useful for bridging the gap between available data on international migration flows and the information required for policy making and research. The basic idea of the paper is as follows: to establish a coherent and consistent data base that contains sufficiently detailed, up-to-date and accurate information, data from several sources should be combined.... The issues may be tackled more easily if the statistics that are being compiled are viewed as different outcomes or manifestations of underlying stochastic processes governing migration. The link between the processes and their outcomes is described by models, the parameters of which must be estimated from the available data.... The paper discusses the experience of the U.S. Bureau of the Census in combining migration data from several sources. It also summarizes the many efforts in Europe to establish a coherent and consistent data base on international migration." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Americas↗

PubMed1985

Changing demographics of peptic ulcer disease.

The demography of peptic ulcer changed greatly and uniformly in western countries until the middle of this century. The demographic pattern reversed at about the turn of the century, duodenal ulcer becoming the predominant lesion, males the most often affected, and age-distribution shifting towards senior citizens. These changes have not continued beyond the 1950s, in fact a decline in the incidence of duodenal ulcer has been postulated. Although hospital admission rates have declined dramatically, there is no evidence of a general decline in the 'true' incidence of duodenal ulcer in the population. However, major changes are ongoing, but the pattern differs from country to country. These findings indicate that environmental factors other than those characterizing industrialized societies are actively involved in the etiology of peptic ulcer.

Age Factors↗

PubMed1991

[Household composition of the elderly in Italy (1981)].

"The last Italian census (1981) was used to study the household composition of people aged sixty and over. Composition varied with the age and sex of the elderly person, and with area of residence. Those who lived with, or at the home of, a child were studied especially closely. Geographical variation in the household composition of elderly people showed that composition is a living reflection of the past and present demography of each region." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Adult↗

PubMed1990

Multistate life table with duration dependence: an application to Hungarian female marital history.

"Building on recent developments in multistate demography, and using data from the 1984 Hungarian microcensus, this paper analyzes the impact that the introduction of duration-specific transitions has on the results of a multistate life table analysis of marital dissolution. The results show that the inclusion of duration has its greatest impact on the distribution of the stationary population between ages 25 and 35." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Age Factors↗

PubMed1982

Population dynamics in variable environments. IV. Weak ergodicity in the Lotka equation.

The Hilbert projective metric is applied to the continuous-time Lotka equation in demography to establish weak ergodicity: populations with the same time-varying fecundity and mortality schedules ultimately have the same age composition. The analysis displays clearly the dynamic content of Lotka's equation and identifies a contraction operator which forces convergence of birth sequences over time. The relationship between primitivity in the discrete (Leslie) and continuous (Lotka) demographic models is made clear.

Birth Rate↗

PubMed1983

Livestock production in central Mali. The Macina wool sheep of the Niger inundation zone.

This paper gives a brief outline of the supposed origins, the known history and the distribution of the Macina sheep. A physical description of the breed is provided, population demography is discussed and traditional systems of management are described and explained. Productivity is assessed in two ways--from the results of a questionnaire survey of traditional owners and analyses of four years' data on a small flock owned by ILCA and managed as closely as possible on traditional lines.

Animal Husbandry↗

PubMed1998

Consensual partnering in Australia: a review and 1991 census profile.

"This paper is the first part of a two-part examination of consensual partnering in Australia. It reviews the Australian literature on consensual partnering, summarizing evidence of its proliferation since the mid-1960s and also the findings of investigations into its nature and the personal attributes that predispose some people more than others to adopt it. It then discusses the shortcomings of Australian census data as a source for studying consensual unions, before using data from the 1991 Census to present the first elements in a comprehensive profile of the cohabiting population. These cover the basic demography of consensual partnering: the ages, marital statuses and family type distributions of those involved."

Age Distribution↗

PubMed1996

A note on suicide in Russia, 1965-1993.

"Recently, the Centre for Demography and Human Ecology in Moscow in collaboration with the Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques in Paris undertook a reconstruction of registered deaths in individual republics of the former Soviet Union.... The present article extracts from the data set information on registered suicide mortality and reviews its trends and age and sex patterns. The link between alcoholism and suicide is strongly suggested."

Age Factors↗

PubMed1999

Ageing in Europe--challenges and consequences.

This article outlines the five key social and economic policy challenges presented by the ageing population of the European Union (EU). These challenges are the maintenance of economic security in old age, preserving intergenerational solidarity, combating the social exclusion created by age discrimination, providing long-term care in the context of changes in family and residence patterns, and enabling older people to participate in society as full citizens. The nature of each of these challenges is discussed and priorities pinpointed. The discussion of policy challenges is preceded by an outline of the demographic context of the EU: the combination of declining fertility and increasing longevity. This also includes a discussion of the links between demography and policy. The conclusion of the article considers the current threat to the European model of social policy and suggests ways in which the gerontological community might contribute to its defence.

Aged↗

PubMed1999

The importance of human ecology at the threshold of the next millennium: how can population growth be stopped?

Ecology is defined as the set of complex interactions between the biotic and abiotic environments. Human ecology concerns principally the population ecology "only" of Homo sapiens, but it also includes all aspects of global ecology because humans are the most important species. Human demography is characterized by a recent decline in mortality and fertility rates. These demographic transitions have largely been completed in industrialized countries, but not in the 140 developing countries. Approximately 100 countries are following the same demographic pattern as industrialized countries, however with a time delay of several generations. China has effectively reduced its population increase by means that would be unacceptable in Western democracies. Some 44 developing countries still show increasing population growth and no detectable demographic transition in birth rate. Thus one part of the world shows limited (and, in the long run, shrinking) population growth, and another continues with a strong increase. All populations are limited in their development by their sustainability by their environment, for example, food and energy resources, and the extent of pollution which the use of these resources produces. It is argued that in the case of human population the limits of sustainability have already been reached with the 6 billion humans alive today, since at least 20% of these suffer from hunger, natural resources are overexploited, and biodiversity is threatened. In the coming 200 years it is more likely that the total population will substantially oscillate rather than approach the predicted 12 billion. The most important goal of human ecology should therefore be to slow population growth as far as possible.

Demography↗

PubMed1998

Endogenous fertility, mortality and growth.

This paper presents a model that illustrates the joint determination of population and development. "Economic and demographic outcomes are determined jointly in a choice-theoretic model of fertility, mortality and capital accumulation.... In addition to choosing savings and births, parents may reduce (infant) deaths by incurring expenditures on health-care which is also provided by the government. A generalised production technology accounts for long-run endogenous growth with short-run transitional dynamics. The analysis yields testable time series and cross-section implications which accord with the empirical evidence on the relationship between demography and development."

Demography↗

PubMed2006

Demographic effects of extreme winter weather in the barn owl.

Extreme weather events can lead to immediate catastrophic mortality. Due to their rare occurrence, however, the long-term impacts of such events for ecological processes are unclear. We examined the effect of extreme winters on barn owl (Tyto alba) survival and reproduction in Switzerland over a 68-year period (approximately 20 generations). This long-term data set allowed us to compare events that occurred only once in several decades to more frequent events. Winter harshness explained 17 and 49% of the variance in juvenile and adult survival, respectively, and the two harshest winters were associated with major population crashes caused by simultaneous low juvenile and adult survival. These two winters increased the correlation between juvenile and adult survival from 0.63 to 0.69. Overall, survival decreased non-linearly with increasing winter harshness in adults, and linearly in juveniles. In contrast, brood size was not related to the harshness of the preceding winter. Our results thus reveal complex interactions between climate and demography. The relationship between weather and survival observed during regular years is likely to underestimate the importance of climate variation for population dynamics.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMed2005

The multiple meanings of Jewish genes.

This article addresses contemporary social challenges created by new genetic research on Jews and by Jews, and its implications for the meanings of Jewish identity, on both the individual and the collective levels. The article begins with a brief overview of selective genetic studies of Jewish populations and the controversies they have generated. It continues with an examination of the emerging field of Jewish genetic demography, which employs genetic tests to identify lineages, claim kin, and support Jewish historical and political claims. Here the article explores how Jewish genetic demographers interpret genetic studies to reinforce oral tradition and Biblical prophecy about the origins of the Jews and their experience in the Diaspora. This research is then juxtaposed with debates that emerge from contemporary rabbinic deliberations over the appropriate uses of new reproductive technologies, debates that, contrary to the assertions of Jewish genetic demographers, suggest genes are believed to possess limited ability to confer or create Jewishness in the traditional rabbinic imagination. In the final section of this article, a debate is staged about contemporary biomedical practices that allow for the exchange and transfer of body parts and bodily substances, as a strategy for challenging genetic notions of Jewish identity.

DNA↗

PubMed1985

Future technological implications of demographic changes into the 21st century.

Throughout history there has been a constant interaction between the presence or absence of technological developments and demography. Technology in general and health technologies in particular have contributed to substantial changes in the demographic situation to the extent that even the morbidity and mortality patterns have adapted to technological progress. It is speculated that the demographic imperative will, during the third millennium, shift the centre of gravity of our world towards the Pacific basin. This in turn may influence our norms, values and practice of health care to the same extent as colonialism permeated the African, Asian and American health systems during the period of colonialism.

Demography↗