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Second malignant neoplasms in patients treated on SIOP Wilms tumour studies and trials 1, 2, 5, and 6.

The incidence of second malignant neoplasms (SMNs) was investigated among 1,988 patients with complete data, enrolled in the SIOP Wilms tumor trials and studies 1, 2, 5, and 6, treated between September 1971 and October 1987. By the end of 1992, eight SMNs were documented, whereas only 1.3 were expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 4.15; 95% CI = 1.79, 8.17). The risk increases in the first 10 years from diagnosis, while no apparent excess of risk is observed in the subsequent periods. This finding however is difficult to interpretdue to the low statistical power. The cumulative incidence of a second cancer observed at 15 years after Wilms tumor diagnosis was 0.65%. Six SMNs were registered in the cohort of patients treated in the SIOP studies 1, 2 and 5 (999 cases) compared to the two cases observed in the SIOP6 cohort (989 cases). If the suggested reduced incidence of second cancers between SIOP1-5 and SIOP6 patient cohorts is confirmed by longer follow-up, it might reflect changes in the treatment protocols.

Adolescent↗

Prenatal exposures and congenital heart defects in Down syndrome infants.

The purpose of this study was to determine whether there are important differences in maternal and environmental prenatal risk factors between liveborn Down syndrome infants with congenital heart defects and Down syndrome infants without heart defects. Using a case control study design, we evaluated the risk associated with maternal illness, drug ingestion, substance usage, and chemical exposures in the home or workplace. The period of risk selected was 3 months before and 3 months after the last menstrual period, because cardiac development occurs early, before the mother may become aware of her pregnancy. Because fetal survival in Down syndrome may be more vulnerable to various exposures, controls were selected who also had trisomy 21. Of 171 infants studied, 89 were cases with congenital heart disease, and 82 were controls without heart disease. All interviews were performed by one nurse practitioner using a structured standardized questionnaire. Cases and controls had similar maternal ages, family incomes, parental education levels, and contraceptive practices before pregnancy. No differences were found between case and control mothers for maternal illness, medication use, or consumption of caffeinated beverages, cigarettes, or alcohol. Reporting of recreational drug usage was infrequent, may reflect underreporting, and did not differ between cases and controls. Maternal exposures were commonly reported for pesticides (50%), hair dyes (22%), craft paints (8%), varnishes (7%), and solvents (3.5%). However, in none of the categories was maternal exposure significantly more prevalent among case mothers than among control mothers. The failure of this study to identify risk factors for cardiac malformations may be attributable to the small differences in reported frequencies reducing statistical power or to the possibility that cardiac malformation in Down syndrome is a direct result of chromosomal duplication.

Case-Control Studies↗

Luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone agonist triptorelin in combination with cytotoxic chemotherapy in patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma. A prospective double blind randomized trial. Decapeptyl Ovarian Cancer Study Group.

BACKGROUND: Several lines of evidence suggest that the proliferation of ovarian carcinoma might be stimulated by gonadotrophins. A number of Phase I/Phase II clinical trials have reported that the suppression of endogenous luteinizing hormone and follicle-stimulating hormone secretion by luteinizing hormone-releasing hormone (LHRH) analogs induced objective remissions and/or disease stabilization in 10-30% of patients with advanced refractory ovarian carcinoma. The current study was performed to evaluate whether the addition of LHRH agonist treatment to standard platinum-based chemotherapy could prolong survival of patients with surgically treated Stage III or IV epithelial ovarian carcinoma. METHODS: One hundred and thirty-five patients with Stage III or IV epithelial ovarian carcinoma participated in this prospective randomized double blind trial. After cytoreductive surgery, 69 patients received monthly injections of a depot preparation of the LHRH agonist [D-Trp6] LHRH (triptorelin, 3.75 mg) and 66 patients received placebo until their deaths or termination of trial, respectively. All patients were treated with a standard platinum-based chemotherapy, and, if necessary, with second- or third-line cytotoxic regimens. RESULTS: Endogenous gonadotrophins were reliably suppressed in patients treated with triptorelin. However, their progression free and overall survival were not significantly different from that of patients receiving placebo injections (statistical power > 80% for a difference between both groups of > or = 20%). CONCLUSIONS: The results of this trial suggest that the suppression of endogenous gonadotrophins by conventional doses of an LHRH agonist produces no relevant beneficial effects in patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma who receive standard surgical cytoreduction and cytotoxic chemotherapy.

Adult↗

Issues for covariance analysis of dichotomous and ordered categorical data from randomized clinical trials and non-parametric strategies for addressing them.

Analysis of covariance is an effective method for addressing two considerations for randomized clinical trials. One is reduction of variance for estimates of treatment effects and thereby the production of narrower confidence intervals and more powerful statistical tests. The other is the clarification of the magnitude of treatment effects through adjustment of corresponding estimates for any random imbalances between the treatment groups with respect to the covariables. The statistical basis of covariance analysis can be either non-parametric, with reliance only on the randomization in the study design, or parametric through a statistical model for a postulated sampling process. For non-parametric methods, there are no formal assumptions for how a response variable is related to the covariables, but strong correlation between response and covariables is necessary for variance reduction. Computations for these methods are straightforward through the application of weighted least squares to fit linear models to the differences between treatment groups for the means of the response variable and the covariables jointly with a specification that has null values for the differences that correspond to the covariables. Moreover, such analysis is similarly applicable to dichotomous indicators, ranks or integers for ordered categories, and continuous measurements. Since non-parametric covariance analysis can have many forms, the ones which are planned for a clinical trial need careful specification in its protocol. A limitation of non-parametric analysis is that it does not directly address the magnitude of treatment effects within subgroups based on the covariables or the homogeneity of such effects. For this purpose, a statistical model is needed. When the response criterion is dichotomous or has ordered categories, such a model may have a non-linear nature which determines how covariance adjustment modifies results for treatment effects. Insight concerning such modifications can be gained through their evaluation relative to non-parametric counterparts. Such evaluation usually indicates that alternative ways to compare treatments for a response criterion with adjustment for a set of covariables mutually support the same conclusion about the strength of treatment effects. This robustness is noteworthy since the alternative methods for covariance analysis have substantially different rationales and assumptions. Since findings can differ in important ways across alternative choices for covariables (as opposed to methods for covariance adjustment), the critical consideration for studies with covariance analyses planned as the primary method for comparing treatments is the specification of the covariables in the protocol (or in an amendment or formal plan prior to any unmasking of the study.

Analysis of Variance↗

An issue of statistical analysis in controlled multi-centre studies: how shall we weight the centres?

When analysing data from a controlled multi-centre study, an important issue is how to weight each centre to assess the overall treatment effect. The unweighted analysis, which weights all centres equally, was recommended by many statisticians and the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, and has been routinely utilized as the primary statistical method for many phase III clinical studies in the pharmaceutical industry. The weighted analysis, which weights centres relative to the number of patients in them, was considered not meaningful in the presence of treatment-by-centre interaction. This paper demonstrates why we should hesitate to use the unweighted analysis as the primary statistical method of a study from a statistical power perspective. It also shows that the weighted analysis is meaningful, even in the presence of treatment-by-centre interaction, and that it is generally the preferred approach.

Controlled Clinical Trials as Topic↗

Risk of premenopausal breast cancer and patterns of established breast cancer risk factors among teachers and nurses.

BACKGROUND: Contrasting results have been published regarding the risk of breast cancer among teachers and nurses. Confounding by reproductive factors may explain the increased risk observed among women in these occupations as information on those factors were not available in most studies. METHODS: We examined the risk of premenopausal breast cancer among teachers and nurses using occupational histories in a case-control study where information on established risk factors was available. RESULTS: Having ever held a teaching job was not related to breast cancer (OR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.44-1.28) and women who worked for 10 years or less in this occupation had a non-significant deficit of risk (OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.27-1.02). No elevation in risk was found in association with having ever been a nurse (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.45-1.61) or with duration of nursing. Although direct comparison of established risk factors among teachers and nurses and other women in the study showed some evidence of differential distribution, especially when comparing teachers to other women, adjustment for reproductive variables and other breast cancer risk factors did not change the results of this study. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that teachers and nurses are not at an increased risk of breast cancer. This study also suggests that established risk factors for premenopausal breast cancer may not explain the elevation of risk found in other studies of teachers and nurses. However, this conclusion is limited by the fact that in the present study teachers and nurses had lower than expected breast cancer risk with or without adjustment for established risk factors. Limitations of this study such as low response rates and limited statistical power should be considered in the interpretation of these findings.

Adult↗

Diabetes Atherosclerosis Intervention Study (DAIS): quantitative coronary angiographic analysis of coronary artery atherosclerosis.

The primary objective of the Diabetes Atherosclerosis Intervention Study (DAIS) is to determine by quantitative coronary angiography whether long-term correction of the dyslipoproteinemia of diabetes with micronized fenofibrate results in evidence of decreased progression or regression of angiographically measured obstructive coronary atherosclerosis. The purpose of this communication is to describe the angiographic methodology for the DAIS project, and to present data documenting the reproducibility of measurements that will determine the primary outcome of DAIS. Four hundred eighteen subjects between the ages of 40 and 65 were entered from 11 centers in Canada, France, Finland, and Sweden, with 305 males and 113 females. Thirty-two percent of subjects had undergone a previous coronary artery intervention, either PTCA or bypass grafting. Subjects underwent coronary arteriography at baseline according to a strictly defined protocol. The coronary tree was divided into AHA segments and quantitative analysis of segments was performed using the cardiovascular measurement system described by Reiber. Geometric parameters including mean lumen diameter, minimum lumen diameter, maximum lumen diameter, and segment length were determined. In 15 studies, measurements were carried out on the same frame by two observers, and at least 1 week apart by the same observer. In 13 studies, measurements were performed by the same observer on two separate injections of the same coronary artery. The mean of the standard deviation of the differences of measurements of all segments for the primary study analyst was 0.029 mm, with a mean of correlation coefficients of 1.00. Between two observers, the mean of the standard deviations of segmental mean lumen diameters was 0.347 mm with a mean of coefficients of variation of 0.78. The mean of standard deviations for measurements of segmental mean lumen diameter from two separate coronary injections was 0.122, with a mean of correlation coefficients of 0.94. The mean of correlation coefficients for minimum lumen diameter were 0.98 for intraobserver variability, 0.77 for inter-observer variability, and 0.96 for inter-angiogram variability. For segment length the corresponding values were 0.99, 0.79, and 0.94. These data demonstrate that a high level of reproducibility and precision may be achieved in a multicenter study in assessment of the coronary tree in carefully performed studies using this methodology. We anticipate the results will provide a statistically powerful conclusion with new and unique data to answer the question of the effect of long-term correction of dyslipoproteinemia on coronary atherosclerosis in type II diabetic patients with dyslipoproteinemia.

Adult↗

Cancer of the tongue in patients less than forty.

INTRODUCTION: It is the opinion of many surgeons that the biologic potential of cancer that develops in young people is different compared with older patients. Prior reports on small series of patients addressing this issue have inadequate statistical power to resolve the question. METHODS: By use of the techniques of meta-analysis, patients less than 40 years old who had undergone treatment of squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) of the oral tongue were examined. Twenty-eight patients who were encountered in the Department of Otolaryngology, University of Pittsburgh School of Medicine, and 94 patients were identified in the literature for a total of 122 patients <40 years old. A control group of 150 patients, aged 40 years and older treated for SCC of the oral tongue between 1982 and 1994 was identified. RESULTS: Three-year disease-free survival in the group of patients aged less than 40 was 53.3% compared with 3-year disease free survivorship of 55.0% in the older cohort of patients. CONCLUSION: These data strongly suggest that the outcomes of treatment for SCC of the oral tongue in young patients are similar compared with patients older than 40 with similar extent of disease.

Adolescent↗

Haplotype sharing analysis in affected individuals from nuclear families with at least one affected offspring.

In diseases with a complex mode of inheritance, families with multiple affected individuals are difficult to ascertain. The haplotype sharing statistic (HSS) uses (hidden) co-ancestry between affected individuals from a founder population. These affected individuals will likely not only share the same mutation(s), but also the surrounding haplotype. We show that this method gives a low false positive rate, but does not detect genes in the nuclear families of Problem 2A of the GAW data. We also give evidence based on simulations and empirical studies in real population based data that the HSS method has statistical power.

Chromosome Mapping↗

Recent progress in understanding the genetic susceptibility to osteoporosis.

Family and twin studies have established a genetic contribution to the etiology of osteoporosis. The genes and allelic variants conferring osteoporotic risk are largely undefined, but the number of candidates has increased steadily in recent years (Table I). Osteoporosis is a complex disease, and allelic variation in many other candidate-genes including those that encode growth factors, cytokines, calciotropic hormones, and bone matrix proteins are likely to also play a role and warrant systematic investigation. Most family and association studies to date have focused on the genetic contributions to bone density, a major determinant of bone strength and fracture risk. Bone density is not the only determinant of skeletal fragility, however, and genetic influences on fracture risk are independent of bone density [Cummings et al., 1995]. The microarchitectural properties and overall size and geometry of bone also influence skeletal strength [Bouxsein et al., 1996], and the genetic influences on these phenotypes should be investigated more rigorously. Even fewer studies have assessed the association between candidate-gene variation and the risk of fracture, the most important clinical outcome of osteoporosis. Large-scale molecular epidemiologic studies will be increasingly necessary in the future to quantify the relative, absolute and attributable risks of fracture associated with specific genetic variants. Osteoporosis is a complex, multifactorial disease, and most candidate-gene association studies have had limited statistical power to assess gene-gene and gene-environment interaction. Although gender plays an important role in the development of osteoporosis, genetic studies have almost exclusively focused on women, and have not tested whether gender modifies the association between genetic variation and osteoporotic risk. Therefore, future genetic studies will need to recruit larger samples of individuals including men. Rapid additional progress in our understanding of the molecular basis of osteoporosis can be expected in the near future as ongoing genome-wide linkage [Spotila et al., 1996] and candidate-gene association analyses are completed. Linkage analyses in families at high-risk for rare metabolic bone diseases should also yield important clues to the pathogenesis of osteoporosis. Recent examples are the mapping of loci for both high [Johnson et al., 1997] and low [Gong et al., 1996] bone mass to chromosome 11q and osteopetrosis to chromosome 1p [Van Hul et al., 1997]. Similar ongoing studies in baboons [Rogers and Hixson, 1997] and mice [Beamer et al., 1997] may reveal additional loci whose human homologs contribute to osteoporotic risk. The improved understanding of osteoporosis that will emerge from these genetic studies should lead to better diagnosis of this disease and new treatment and prevention strategies.

Animals↗

Toward guidelines for pedigree selection in genetic studies of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder.

Converging evidence from family, twin, and adoption studies points to a substantial genetic component of the etiology of attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD). These data about ADHD have motivated molecular genetic studies of the disorder, which have produced intriguing but somewhat conflicting results. Some studies have reported associations with candidate genes and others not. Our review of the literature shows that one problem facing molecular genetic studies of ADHD is that its recurrence risk to first-degree relatives is only about five times higher than the population prevalence. This suggests that, to produce consistently replicated results, molecular genetic studies should either use much larger samples or should select those families in which genes exert the largest effect. Risch [(1990a) Am J Hum Genet 46:222-228; (1990b) Am J Hum Genet 46:229-241] proved that the statistical power of a linkage study increases with the magnitude of risk ratios (lambda's) computed by dividing the affection rate among each relative type to the rate of affection in the population. Our prior work suggests two dimensions of genetic heterogeneity that might be useful for selecting ADHD subjects for molecular genetic studies: comorbidity with conduct disorder and persistence of ADHD into adolescence. This paper shows that these sub-phenotypes are useful for molecular genetic studies because (1) they have much higher empirical lambda values and (2) they affect a substantial minority of ADHD patients.

Adolescent↗

Statistics for investigation of multimodal MR imaging data and an application to multiple sclerosis patients.

Magnetic resonance spectroscopy can image axonal damage specifically based on changes in N-acetyl aspartate (NAA), a neuronal marker. We have developed statistical methods for multimodal analysis of MR spectroscopic images. These methods, which are extensions of mixed-effect models, have allowed us to quantify differences in images from different subgroups of patients with multiple sclerosis (MS) and to determine the dependence of chemical pathology on clinical disability, duration of disease and lesions on T2-weighted MRI. Statistical power was improved by using all reliable resonance intensities in the spectroscopic images while taking into consideration the intra-subject correlations. We studied 17 normal subjects, 14 patients with relapsing remitting (RR) MS and 21 patients with chronic progressive (CP) MS. The ratio of resonance intensities of N-acetylaspartate over creatine (Cr) was found to be significantly lower than normal in normal appearing white matter (NAWM) of both RR and CP patients (19.6% in RR, 28.8% in CP), NAA/Cr was decreased even more in MS plaques than in NAWM (44.2% in RR, 17.7% in CP), NAA/Cr was correlated with clinical disability (p < 0.02) and disease duration (p < 0.1). Our results suggest that, in this setting, MRS reflects accumulated neuronal loss or damage and can be used as a measure of disease severity. The methods developed provide opportunities to evaluate the relationship between inflammation, demyelination, axonal loss and clinical disability in future studies.

Aspartic Acid↗

Acute effects of 50 Hz magnetic field exposure on human visual task and cardiovascular performance.

One hundred subjects, males and females with ages ranging between 18 and 48 years, were studied under both field-exposed and sham-exposed conditions. A 50 Hz, 100 mu T magnetic field (MF) was used. To examine the effect of field exposure on performance, a two-alternative, forced-choice, duration-discrimination task with three levels of difficulty was used. The subject's task was to decide which of two sequentially presented light flashes had the longer duration. The standard duration was 50 ms, and the alternative durations were 65, 100, or 125 ms. Both reaction time and percentage of correct responses were recorded for each subject. MF and sham exposure were for 9 min each. Blood pressure and heart rate were also measured before and following MF exposure and sham-exposure trials. The study was performed double blind, with the exposure order counterbalanced. Compared to sham exposure, MF exposure significantly decreased reaction time on the hardest level of the performance task. MF exposure did not reliably affect percentage correct or cardiovascular performance. It was demonstrated that a relatively high level of statistical power was the basis for the observed MF effect, and the need to pay closer attention to power levels in future research is discussed.

Adolescent↗

Stability, repeatability, and the expression of signal magnitude in functional magnetic resonance imaging.

In 23 fMRI studies on six subjects, we examined activation in visual and motor tasks. We modeled the expected activation time course by convolving a temporal description of the behavioral task with an empirically determined impulse response function. We evaluated the signal activation intensity as both the number of activated voxels over arbitrary correlation thresholds and as the slope of the regression line between our modeled time course and the actual data. Whereas the voxel counting was strikingly unstable (standard deviation 74% in visual trials at a correlation of 0.5), the slope was relatively constant across trials and subjects (standard deviation <14%). Using Monte Carlo methods, we determined that the measured slope was largely independent of the contrast-to-noise ratio. Voxel counting is a poor proxy for activation intensity, with greatly increased scatter, much reduced statistical power, and increased type II error. The data support an alternative approach to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) that allows for quantitative comparisons of fMRI response magnitudes across trials and laboratories.

Adult↗

Event-related fMRI contrast when using constant interstimulus interval: theory and experiment.

Event-related functional magnetic resonance imaging (ER-fMRI) involves the mapping of averaged hemodynamic changes resulting from repeated, brief (<3 sec) brain activation episodes. In this paper, two issues regarding constant-interstimulus interval ER-fMRI were addressed. First, the optimal interstimulus interval (ISI), given a stimulus duration (SD), was determined. Second, the statistical power of ER-fMRI relative to that of a blocked-design paradigm was determined. Experimentally, it was found that with a 2-sec SD, the optimal ISI is 12 to 14 sec. Theoretically, the optimal repetition interval (T(opt) = ISI + SD) is 12 to 14 sec for stimuli of 2 sec or less. For longer stimuli, T(opt) is 8 + 2 x SD. At the optimal ISI for SD = 2 sec, the experimentally determined functional contrast of ER-fMRI was only -35% lower than that of blocked-design fMRI. Simulations that assumed a linear system demonstrated an event-related functional contrast that was -65% lower than that of the blocked design. These differences between simulated and experimental contrast suggest that the ER-fMRI amplitude is greater than that predicted by a linear shift-invariant system.

Adult↗

Studies in variation associated with the measurement of solid tumors.

The existing system for solid tumor evaluation is criticized and revised criteria are proposed. The foundation for this analysis is a tumor stimulation experiment to determine the distribution associated with measurement of solid tumors. This tumor simulation experiment was conducted among 26 oncologists in order to assess the errors associated with the measurement of solid tumors by means of palpation. Tumor size, shape, and texture were included as study factors. Tumor texture did not appear to affect measurement outcome. Overall, the statistical law governing tumor area measurement is best described as a log-normal distribution. Under this assumption, the sufficient statistic for the evaluation of tumor response or progression is simply the ratio of the tumor areas at each evaluation. The data generalize to permit the construction of statistical power curves for the probability of declaring response or progression, based upon the theoretic tumor/area ratios. Response and progression criteria are related in logarithmic proportion, i.e., a 50% decrease for response corresponds to a 100% increase for progression. The use of more sensitive progression criteria (a 25% increase in solid tumor area), in light of the nature of tumor measurement error, can lead to premature rejection of any therapy that stabilizes or reduces disease. Furthermore, the use of specified cutoffs for progression and response introduce a significant error into clinical evaluations of solid tumors.

Biometry↗

Adriamycin and Cytoxan in the treatment of inoperable lung cancer.

The results of a clinical trial involving 599 patients with inoperable squamous cell, large cell anaplastic, and adenocarcinoma of the lung are summarized. Patients were randomized to initial therapy with Cytoxan (CTX) (cyclophosphamide), or to one of two schedules of Adriamycin (doxorubicin) 50, or 75 mg/m2 IV every three weeks, or to a combined regimen of ADR and CTX. Upon disease progression, CTX patients were randomized to one of the two ADR schedules, while ADR patients were randomly assigned to CTX alone, or in combination with Cisdiamminedichloroplatinum (Cis-Platinum) 15 mg/m2 IV every three weeks. No statistically significant response or survival differences were observed between the two dose schedules of Adriamycin for any of the cell types studied. The two dose levels did, however, differ with respect to toxicity. There were some response and survival differences among the various cell types in the comparison of low-dose Adriamycin and Cytoxan: (1) patients with adenocarcinoma treated with low-dose Adriamycin tended to survive longer (P = 0.04) than those treated with Cytoxan; and (2) patients with large cell carcinoma receiving Cytoxan experienced a greater tumor response rate than those receiving low dose Adriamycin (P = 0.03). Because of the difficulties involved in distinguishing these two cell types on pathologic examination, the evidence of apparent treatment differences should not be regarded as definitive. During the period when Adriamycin plus Cytoxan was open to patient entry 61 evaluable patients received that regimen, 21 received low-dose Adriamycin and 22 received Cytoxan. Because relatively few patients received the latter two regimens, comparisons of these treatments with Adriamycin plus Cytoxan lack statistical power. However, there is no suggestion in the available data that Adriamycin plus Cytoxan increased survival either in the overall population or in the subset of patients with squamous histology. Initial performance status, metastatic disease symptoms, primary disease symptoms, and weight loss were significantly correlated to survival time, and are recommended as stratification factors in future studies.

Adenocarcinoma↗

Bladder cancer in nonsmokers.

Potential risk factors for bladder cancer were studied in a series of 76 male and 76 female bladder cancer cases and 238 male and 254 female controls who reported never having smoked. Risk factors included usual occupation, smoking by the spouse, sidestream smoke exposure at home and at work and in transportation, coffee drinking (caffeinated and decaffeinated), artificial sweetener use, body mass index, and a history of diabetes and high blood pressure. No association was found with spouse's smoking or reported sidestream smoke exposure, coffee drinking, artificial sweetener use, or a number of other variables; however, there was some indication that several occupations were overrepresented in the cases. A positive association was found with snuff use in women, but the numbers were small (three cases and one control). Restriction of the study to lifetime nonsmokers permitted the assessment of potential risk factors in the absence of potential confounding and interactive effects of smoking. The study had adequate statistical power to detect moderately small elevated risks due to the main factors examined.

Adult↗