Prediction probability as a determiner of anticipatory and preparatory electrodermal behavior.
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Color Perception↗
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Clinical diagnosis and the order of information.
BACKGROUND: Information order can influence judgment. However, it remains unclear whether the order of clinical data affects physicians' interpretations of these data when they are engaged in familiar diagnostic tasks. METHODS: Of 400 randomly selected family physicians who were given a questionnaire involving a brief written scenario about a young woman with acute dysuria, 315 (79%) returned usable responses. The physicians had been randomized into two groups, and both groups had received the same clinical information but in different orders. After learning the patient's chief complaint, physicians received either the patient's history and physical examination results followed by the laboratory data (the H&P-first group) or the laboratory data followed by the history and physical examination results (the H&P-last group). The results of the history and physical examination were supportive of the diagnosis of UTI, while the laboratory data were not. All physicians judged the probability of a urinary tract infection (UTI) after each piece of information. RESULTS: The two groups had similar mean estimates of the probability of a UTI after learning the chief complaint (67.4% vs 67.8%, p = 0.85). At the end of the scenario, the H&P-first group judged UTI to be less likely than did the H&P-last group (50.9% vs 59.1%, p = 0.03) despite having identical information. Comparison of the mean likelihood ratios attributed to the clinical information showed that the H&P-first group gave less weight to the history and physical than did the H&P-last group (p = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The order in which clinical information was presented influenced physicians' estimates of the probability of disease. The clinical history and physical examination were given more weight by physicians who received this information last.
Analysis of Variance↗
Neuronal responses related to reinforcement in the primate basal forebrain.
In the present study neurones recorded in the substantia innominata, the diagonal band of Broca and a periventricular region of the basal forebrain responded differentially to stimuli signalling the availability of fruit juice or saline obtained by making lick responses in two different visual discrimination tasks. The activity of certain neurones reflected the rewarding nature of stimuli used to signal the availability of juice in the tasks, responding to the sight and delivery of both foods and syringes used to deliver juice in tests in which behavioural responses were irrelevant. The activity of other neurones reflected aversion, responding to task stimuli signalling availability of saline and to syringes used to deliver saline to the mouth. In another task an auditory cue that signalled the availability of juice elicited neuronal responses. These neurones also responded to a tone cue used to signal the onset of the trial, and during certain mouth and arm movements which the monkey used to obtain reinforcement. The responses of these differential neurones were similar in most respects in all 3 regions of the basal forebrain. Thus these neurones respond to a range of visual and auditory stimuli that monkeys have learned can be used to obtain reinforcement, but not on the basis of sensory properties such as shape or colour of the stimuli. We conclude that the reinforcement-related nature of the neuronal signal from the basal forebrain could be used to facilitate processing in cortical regions, optimising the functioning of sensory, motor and association cortices, thus increasing the probability of responding appropriately to learned environmental contingencies. We suggest that the properties of these neurones are due to afferent inputs from ventromedial regions of the prefrontal and temporal cortices and amygdala.
Action Potentials↗
Convergence of stochastic learning in perceptrons with binary synapses.
The efficacy of a biological synapse is naturally bounded, and at some resolution, and is discrete at the latest level of single vesicles. The finite number of synaptic states dramatically reduce the storage capacity of a network when online learning is considered (i.e., the synapses are immediately modified by each pattern): the trace of old memories decays exponentially with the number of new memories (palimpsest property). Moreover, finding the discrete synaptic strengths which enable the classification of linearly separable patterns is a combinatorially hard problem known to be NP complete. In this paper we show that learning with discrete (binary) synapses is nevertheless possible with high probability if a randomly selected fraction of synapses is modified following each stimulus presentation (slow stochastic learning). As an additional constraint, the synapses are only changed if the output neuron does not give the desired response, as in the case of classical perceptron learning. We prove that for linearly separable classes of patterns the stochastic learning algorithm converges with arbitrary high probability in a finite number of presentations, provided that the number of neurons encoding the patterns is large enough. The stochastic learning algorithm is successfully applied to a standard classification problem of nonlinearly separable patterns by using multiple, stochastically independent output units, with an achieved performance which is comparable to the maximal ones reached for the task.
Algorithms↗
Local preference in concurrent schedules: the effects of reinforcer sequences.
We investigated the effects that sequences of reinforcers obtained from the same response key have on local preference in concurrent variable-interval schedules with pigeons as subjects. With an overall reinforcer rate of one every 27 s, on average, reinforcers were scheduled dependently, and the probability that a reinforcer would be arranged on the same alternative as the previous reinforcer was manipulated. Throughout the experiment, the overall reinforcer ratio was 1:1, but across conditions we varied the average lengths of same-key reinforcer sequences by varying this conditional probability from 0 to 1. Thus, in some conditions, reinforcer locations changed frequently, whereas in others there tended to be very long sequences of same-key reinforcers. Although there was a general tendency to stay at the just-reinforced alternative, this tendency was considerably decreased in conditions where same-key reinforcer sequences were short. Some effects of reinforcers are at least partly to be accounted for by their signaling subsequent reinforcer locations.
Animals↗
Inferring category characteristics from sample characteristics: inductive reasoning and social projection.
Inductive reasoning involves generalization from sample observations to categories. This research examined the conditions under which generalizations go beyond the boundaries of the sampled categories. In Experiment 1, participants sampled colored chips from urns. When categorization was not salient, participants revised their estimates of the probability of a particular color even in urns they had not sampled. As categorization became more salient, generalization became limited to the sampled urn. In Experiment 2 the salience of categorization in social induction was varied. When social categorization was not salient, participants projected their own responses to test items to members of a laboratory group even when they themselves did not belong to this group. When salience increased, projection decreased among nonmembers but not among members. In Experiment 3 these results were replicated in a field setting.
Adolescent↗
Visual statistical learning in infancy: evidence for a domain general learning mechanism.
The rapidity with which infants come to understand language and events in their surroundings has prompted speculation concerning innate knowledge structures that guide language acquisition and object knowledge. Recently, however, evidence has emerged that by 8 months, infants can extract statistical patterns in auditory input that are based on transitional probabilities defining the sequencing of the input's components (Science 274 (1996) 1926). This finding suggests powerful learning mechanisms that are functional in infancy, and raises questions about the domain generality of such mechanisms. We habituated 2-, 5-, and 8-month-old infants to sequences of discrete visual stimuli whose ordering followed a statistically predictable pattern. The infants subsequently viewed the familiar pattern alternating with a novel sequence of identical stimulus components, and exhibited significantly greater interest in the novel sequence at all ages. These results provide support for the likelihood of domain general statistical learning in infancy, and imply that mechanisms designed to detect structure inherent in the environment may play an important role in cognitive development.
Age Factors↗
Estimation of distribution algorithms with Kikuchi approximations.
The question of finding feasible ways for estimating probability distributions is one of the main challenges for Estimation of Distribution Algorithms (EDAs). To estimate the distribution of the selected solutions, EDAs use factorizations constructed according to graphical models. The class of factorizations that can be obtained from these probability models is highly constrained. Expanding the class of factorizations that could be employed for probability approximation is a necessary step for the conception of more robust EDAs. In this paper we introduce a method for learning a more general class of probability factorizations. The method combines a reformulation of a probability approximation procedure known in statistical physics as the Kikuchi approximation of energy, with a novel approach for finding graph decompositions. We present the Markov Network Estimation of Distribution Algorithm (MN-EDA), an EDA that uses Kikuchi approximations to estimate the distribution, and Gibbs Sampling (GS) to generate new points. A systematic empirical evaluation of MN-EDA is done in comparison with different Bayesian network based EDAs. From our experiments we conclude that the algorithm can outperform other EDAs that use traditional methods of probability approximation in the optimization of functions with strong interactions among their variables.
Algorithms↗
The effects of visual conspicuousness and the concept of randomness on the recognition of randomness in sequences.
In a number of studies, tendencies toward nonrepetition in judgments of randomness of visually presented sequences of events have been attributed to a biased concept of randomness. The present study proposed that such bias is due to "bottom-up" visual processes rather than a concept of randomness. Experiment 1 showed that judgments of randomness were less biased when repetitions were made less conspicuous by increasing the distance between adjacent items. Experiment 2 produced comparable results for increasing dissimilarity of categorically identical items. A third experiment showed that the bias in the judgment task was not related to a more direct measure of knowledge of random processes, the assignment of probabilities of repetition to imagined random sequences. The results supported the view that judgments of randomness are determined to a high degree by the conspicuousness of repetitions and are independent of the concept of randomness.
Attention↗
Probability matching in visual selective attention.
Jonides (1980, p. 111) suggested a model to account for shifts of spatial attention in visual search tasks with less than 100% cue validity. This two-stage probability matching model was subsequently tested by Jonides (1983). Reaction time distribution characteristics indeed provided some support for the model. In the present paper the relevant data presented in Jonides (1980, 1981, 1983) are further analysed. The results of this analysis strongly support the probability matching hypothesis. Probability matching is apparently a very important strategic characteristic of visual spatial attention that deserves much more study.
Attention↗
Effects of attribute probability in a memory search task.
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Attention↗
Possible molecular-cellular mechanisms of the regulation of gene expression during learning.
This study is an analysis of the regulatory mechanisms of plasticity. The first part provides a short review of the role of DNA-binding transcription factors in possible regulatory pathways and their activity in the mechanisms of plasticity. Our own data obtained in studies of the molecular mechanisms underlying the formation of conditioned defensive reflexes in Helix are then presented. These studies show that formation of defensive types of plasticity in Helix is accompanied by serotonin-induced translocation of a protein with Rf 0.58 and increases in G-protein activity, protein kinase A activity, and expression of the c-fos gene. Transcription factors CRE and AP-1 probably have roles in the learning process. Gel shift assays demonstrated the existence of transcription factors of the CRE and AP-1 families in adult snails. In juvenile snails, which were unable to form defensive types of plasticity, the serotonin protein with Rf 0.58 (the learning "marker") was absent from and was not induced in the CNS. Gel shift assay results also showed that transcription factors of the AP-1 family were not present and were not induced by serotonin or the protein kinase A activator forskolin, though these snails had significant levels of CRE transcription factors. Serotonin and forskolin increased the DNA-binding activity of CRE in juvenile Helix. The lack of activity of transcription factors of the AP-1 family in juvenile snails may explain their inability to development sensitization and conditioned defensive reflexes.
Animals↗
Response-reinforcer contingency and spatially defined operants: testing an invariance property of phi.
A chamber containing 72 response keys defining the circumference of a circle 1 m in diameter was used to examine the relation between differentiation of response location and a measure of response-reinforcer contingency known as the phi coefficient. A different target key was specified in each successive phase, and response location was differentiated with respect to the target. Criterional and noncriterional responses (i.e., responses "near" and "far" from the target) were defined using targeted percentile schedules to control the overall probability of each response class. By manipulating criterional (and, hence, noncriterional) response probability and the reinforcement probabilities conditional on each, a mathematical invariance property peculiar to phi in contingency analysis was examined. Specifically, diagonally interchanging cell frequencies in a 2 x 2 table relating criterional/noncriterional responses to reinforcement/nonreinforcement leaves phi unchanged. Hence, the degree of response differentiation predicted by phi remains unchanged under the four permutations implied by the various diagonal interchanges. This predicted invariance was examined under values of phi equal to .33, .58, and .82. Increasing phi generally increased the stereotypy of response location. Three of the permutations generated almost interchangeable performance at different phi values. The remaining permutation, however, generated functions relating response concentration to phi with slopes shallower than those obtained under the other permutations. This resulted from relatively higher levels of differentiation, compared to the other permutations, at low phi values. These data strongly suggest boundary conditions on the ability of phi to reflect completely the local processes that are indexed by phi at a molar level.
Animals↗
Need probability affects retention: a direct demonstration.
Recent memory theory has emphasized the concept of need probability--that is, the probability that a given piece of learned information will be tested at some point in the future. It has been proposed that, in real-world situations, need probability declines over time and that the memory-loss rate is calibrated to match the progressive reduction in need probability (J.R. Anderson & Schooler, 1991). The present experiments were designed to examine the influence of the slope of the need-probability curve on the slope of the retention curve. On each of several trials, subjects memorized a list of digits, then retained the digits in memory for 1, 2, 4, 8, or 16 sec. Some trials ended with a recall test; other trials ended with the message, "no test." In Experiment 1, the likelihood of encountering a memory test (i.e., the need probability) was made to either increase or decrease as the retention interval increased; in Experiment 2, need probability either was flat (invariant across retention intervals) or decreased as the retention interval increased. The results indicated that the shape of the need-probability curve influenced the slope of the retention curve (Experiment 1) and that the effect became larger as the experimental session progressed (Experiment 2). The findings support the notion that memory adapts to need probabilities and that the rate of forgetting is influenced by the slope of the need-probability curve. In addition, all of the forgetting curves approximated a power function, suggesting that need probability influences the slope but not the form of forgetting.
Educational Measurement↗
Preparatory processes in the task-switching paradigm: evidence from the use of probability cues.
The purpose of the investigations was to dissociate processes of task preparation from task execution in the task-switching paradigm. The basic assumption was that task repetitions have 2 advantages over task shifts: an activation advantage as a result of the execution of the same task type in the pretrial, and an expectation advantage, because participants, in general, implicitly expect a repetition. In Experiments 1-3, the authors explicitly manipulated expectancies by presenting cues that announced a shift and/or a repetition with probabilities of 1.00, .75, .50, or .25. Increasing latencies with decreasing probability for shifts and repetitions show that the expectation advantage can be equalized by preparation. However, the activation advantage represented by constant shift costs between tasks of the same probability is not penetrable by preparation. In Experiments 4 and 5, the authors found evidence that preparation involves activation of the expected task and inhibition of distracting tasks.
Adaptation, Psychological↗
[The neuronal activity of the medial wall of the frontal cortex in rats at various stages of learning].
Unit activity of the medial wall of the rat prefrontal cortex was studied during delayed response of spatial choice. Recording was performed in two groups of animals at different levels of learning. Several types of spatio-selective neurones were revealed. Probable relationships of unit activity changes and level of learning are discussed.
Animals↗
Effects of structured relaxation on retrieval from long term storage: an EMG study.
The effects of 20 min structured relaxation immediately prior to retrieval were observed for word lists learned 48 hours previously. Error probabilities and response latencies were scored at acquisition and retrieval for paired associates at two levels of response dominance. Frontalis isometric muscles tension was measured just prior to and during retrieval. Relaxation markedly reduced EMG activity associated with muscle tension. This effect did not extend to the retrieval period. Error probabilities were significantly lower for retrieval preceded by relaxation but the interaction between relaxation and response dominance proved non-significant. These findings suggest that states of low arousal do not bias memory search to readily accessible information as appears to be the case for high arousal.
Electromyography↗
Perceiving the intensity of light.
The relationship between luminance (i.e., the photometric intensity of light) and its perception (i.e., sensations of lightness or brightness) has long been a puzzle. In addition to the mystery of why these perceptual qualities do not scale with luminance in any simple way, "illusions" such as simultaneous brightness contrast, Mach bands, Craik-O'Brien-Cornsweet edge effects, and the Chubb-Sperling-Solomon illusion have all generated much interest but no generally accepted explanation. The authors review evidence that the full range of this perceptual phenomenology can be rationalized in terms of an empirical theory of vision. The implication of these observations is that perceptions of lightness and brightness are generated according to the probability distributions of the possible sources of luminance values in stimuli that are inevitably ambiguous.
Attention↗