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PubMed1982

Microdemographic variation and family composition in four Thai villages.

"Examination of Thai ethnographic materials highlights several problems in comparative analysis of social processes that are population linked. Marked differences in family composition among four Central Thai villages are shown to arise primarily from a common family system operating on different underlying sociocultural and demographic processes. Satisfactory analysis requires detailed demographic data, information on other sociocultural processes, and a formal model of family dynamics relating the demographic to the other kinds of data. Lack of even one of these three components may make comparison meaningless. Demographic anthropology and historical demography provide complementary data well suited to anthropological studies of social organization."

Anthropology, Cultural↗
PubMed1988

Are demographic developments influenced by social security?

"On the basis of the existing literature we examined the points at which social security and family demography meet. The main conclusions are: (1) child allowances will only affect fertility if the level of benefit is rather substantial; (2) unemployment provisions may affect fertility; (3) remarriage frequency is probably affected by public assistance benefits; (4) the same possibly holds for the divorce frequency. These conclusions are tentative: the results are contradictory from many viewpoints, some fields have hardly been investigated and it is unclear whether the effects are temporary or lasting." The geographical focus is on developed countries.

Aid to Families with Dependent Children↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The population of a Wiltshire village in the nineteenth century: a reconstitution study of Berwick St James, 1841-71.

This paper reports an exploratory reconstruction of the village of Berwick St James in Wiltshire using nominative information from nineteenth-century English censuses and ecclesiastical registers of baptisms, marriages and burials between 1841 and 1871. The data are first described, and a procedure for sorting and linking records from different censuses, and for linking census records to registration records, is outlined. A detailed analysis of population turnover in the village reveals that after 1851 there was a period of heavy net out-migration. Those who left the parish were overwhelmingly young people, and females were more likely to move out than males: almost all the females born in the parish between 1841 and 1851 had moved away by 1871. A consequence of this pattern of out-migration was that by 1871 there was a shortage of females in the marriageable age-groups (15-29 years). It is clear that this method of reconstructing English village populations promises new insights into the demography of rural England in the nineteenth-century, including, in addition to population turnover and migration patterns, such aspects as fertility levels and trends. A number of problems with the technique remain, however, notably our ignorance of the typical length of the period between birth and baptism.

Demography↗
PubMed1993

Long-term demographic interactions in precensus England.

"Modern time series methods are applied to the analysis of annual demographic data for England, 1541-1800. Evidence is found of non-stationarity in the series and of co-integration among the series. Building on economic models of historical demography, optimal inferential procedures are implemented to estimate the structural parameters of long-term equilibria among the variables. Evidence is found for a small, but significant, Malthusian 'preventive check' as well as interactions between fertility, mortality and nuptiality that are consistent with the predictions often made in demographic studies. Tentative experiments to detect the influence of environmental factors fail to reveal any significant impact on the estimates obtained."

Demography↗
PubMed1986

[Population of Japan in the Meiji-Taishyo era: a reestimation].

After reviewing previous estimates of the Japanese population in the pre-censal years from the 1860s to 1920, the author presents a reestimation for this period based on more recent studies in historical demography and on Coale and Demeny's regional model life tables. "The most important revision in the present estimation [is] that life-table death rates...for the Meiji-Taishyo era are estimated by Gompertz curves with upper and lower limits in place of the former linear curves." (summary in ENG)

Asia↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[From micro- to macro-reconstitution of families: the SOREP system].

"This article outlines a new system for computerized family reconstitution. It has been developed in the last ten years by a multidisciplinary team of Quebec researchers belonging to the inter-university research center on populations (SOREP). Basically, this system is characterized by: a) an attempt to computerize as much as possible every step involved in the process of reconstitution, b) a set of tools devised for identifying and measuring all forms and degrees of similarity between names and surnames, c) a technique to process cases of ambiguous links, d) a set of programs used to assess the quality of the data and the strength of the links created, [and] e) an attempt to maximize the performance of the linkage work in terms of both efficiency and accuracy. The system has been designed to support several kinds of analyses, from social history and demography to population genetics. Our paper contains a brief overview of the current state of research in the field of record linkage, an introduction to the Saguenay [Canada] population register and a description of the system itself which has been utilized successfully in the last year on the 660,000 Saguenay parish records, covering the period 1842-1971." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND ITA)

Americas↗
PubMed1996

Assessing the reliability of paleodemographic fertility estimators using simulated skeletal distributions.

The reliability of published paleodemographic fertility reconstruction methods was assessed using simulated age-at-death distributions and a published cemetery series from a population with known birth rates. In the first test, the Brass ([1971] Biological Aspects of Demography, pp. 69-110) LOGIT models were used to generate 180 simulated skeletal samples of various sizes (N = 50, 100, 250) from hypothetical populations with known demographic rates. The base populations were expanding (r = 0.01), stationary, or declining (r = -0.01), yet all had the same life expectancy. Growth differences resulted from different fertility rates. The simulated skeletal series were then analyzed using the model life table fitting procedure outlined by Paine ([1989a] Am. J. Phys. Anthropol. 79:51-62), three commonly employed age ratio tests (Bocquet-Appel and Masset [1892] J. Hum. Evol. 11:321-333; Buikstra et al. [1986] Am. Antiquity 51:528-546), and one age-at-death ratio not previously published. In the second test the model life table fitting procedure was used to estimate fertility for a historical population, the Newton Plantation, Barbados (Corruccini et al. [1989] Am. Antiquity 54:609-614), with known demographic characteristics.

Age Determination by Skeleton↗
PubMed1980

Correlates of community mental health center underservice to non-whites.

The relationships between relatively low utilization rates for non-whites and catchment area demography and center service characteristics were examined for 142 federally funded community mental health centers. Center characteristics were less strongly related to relative utilization by non-whites than were area demographic characteristics. Several characteristics of the black population were among those most highly associated with relative non-white utilization rates.

Black or African American↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Demographic consequences of unpredictability in fertility outcomes.

Child survival is probabilistic, but the unpredictability in family formation and completed family size has been neglected in the fertility literature. In many societies, ending the family cycle with too few or too many surviving offspring entails serious social, economic, or fitness consequences. A model of risk- (or variance-) sensitive adaptive behavior that addresses long-term fertility outcomes is presented. The model shows that under conditions likely to be common, optimal, risk-sensitive reproductive strategies deviate systematically from the completed family size that would be expected if reproductive outcome is were predictable. This is termed the "variance compensation hypothesis." Variance compensation may be either positive or negative, resulting in augmented or diminished fertility. Which outcome obtained is a function of identifiable social, economic, and environmental factors. Through its effect on fertility behavior, variance compensation has a direct bearing on birth spacing and completed fertility, and thereby on problems in demography and human population biology ranging from demographic transitions to maternal depletion and child health. Risk-sensitive models will be a necessary component of a general theory of fertility.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed2005

Biogeographical and floristic predictors of the presence and abundance of mantled howlers (Alouatta palliata mexicana) in rainforest fragments at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico.

This research focuses on identifying the principal habitat characteristics that influence the presence and abundance of mantled howlers in forest fragments. We provide information on the demography of several fragmented Alouatta palliata mexicana subpopulations at Los Tuxtlas, Mexico, and relate this to the biogeographical and floristic characteristics of the forest fragments inhabited. The most important habitat characteristics related to the presence and abundance of howlers in the fragments were fragment size and floristic diversity. On the other hand, some evidence suggests that given the conditions under which howlers in our study area live (i.e., small and degraded fragments with high densities), secondary vegetation may be beneficial for the survival of the howlers. Finally, we discuss the possibility that the very low immature-to-female ratio (IFR) in the groups, and the lack of juveniles found in many of the study groups may be due to high mortality rates in immatures. A reduction in food availability because of the high population densities of these groups may be responsible for this process.

Alouatta↗
PubMed2002

Dental and general health in a population of wild ring-tailed lemurs: a life history approach.

Data are presented on dental and general health for seven groups of wild ring-tailed lemurs, Lemur catta, from the Beza Mahafaly Reserve, in southern Madagascar. As part of a study of population demography, adults were captured, collared, and tagged, and biometric measurements, dental casts, and analyses of dental and general health were made. Results indicate that patterns of dental health vary by individual, age, sex, and habitat. Prime adults show more dental attrition than young adults. Prime males living in more marginal habitats show greater mean attrition than those living in richer habitats. Dental damage, specifically to the toothcomb, indicates that mechanical stresses to this region may include the initial harvesting of foods, in addition to grooming. Males exhibit more evidence of past trauma, including scars and chipped teeth. These results indicate that environmental as well as social factors, such as female dominance, may lead to sex differences in health patterns among lemurs.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2003

Primatology comes of age: 2002 AAPA Luncheon Address.

The growth of primate field studies has occurred along multiple dimensions representing expansion in the number of species studied, comparative studies of different populations of the same species, and populations and groups studied over time. The accumulation of data on a broader taxonomic diversity of primates has contributed to advances in the use of comparative methods for gaining insights into interspecific variation in behavior patterns, but the incorporation of intraspecific variation into comparative models of behavior has lagged behind. This delay can be attributed, in part, to the slow rate at which the interacting effects of life history and demography on behavior emerge in slow-growing, long-lived primates. It may also reflect the anthropocentric foundation of field primatology, which historically focused on interspecific comparisons with humans instead of interpopulation variation among primates. Conservation concerns have stimulated new thinking about the importance of populations and the range of behavioral variation that populations maintain. The integration of intra- and interspecific behavioral variation will distinguish the next generation of comparative models in primatology, and set a new agenda as field primatology comes of age.

Animals↗
PubMed1977

The use of penrose's C2H for an intra- and inter-population analysis of quantitative dermatoglyphic traits.

Results of a part of multidisciplinary studies in six villages on the island of Hvar (Yugoslavia) are presented. Six quantitative properties of dermatoglyphics were analysed (TRC, PII, a-b, b-c and c-d ridge counts, and atd angle). "Biological distances" among the surveyed couples from all six villages were analysed using Penrose's C2H, and its components: C2Q and (v-1/v)C2Z with regard to sex and possibility of determining the direction of endogamy or exogamy. Significant correlation between "geographical distances" and (v-1/v)C2Z is obtained for males, indicating that the social organisation in the examined rural population, from the point of view of demography, has some influence on the distribution of the dermatoglyphical characters.

Demography↗
PubMed2000

Management of aggressive histologic variants of endometrial carcinoma at the Tom Baker Cancer Centre between 1984 and 1994.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of this study was to determine the patient characteristics and outcome of patients with aggressive histologic variants (AV) of endometrial carcinoma, including uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC), uterine clear cell carcinoma (UCCC), and mixed type. METHODS AND MATERIALS: All cases with AV histological type of endometrial carcinoma from January 1984 to December 1994 at the Tom Baker Cancer Centre were identified using the Alberta Cancer Registry. Relevant data from the charts of these patients were entered into a study database (Microsoft Excel) and analyzed for presentation, demography, treatment parameters, and outcome of treatment. All pathology was reviewed at the time of diagnosis. Statistical analysis was performed using the S-plus statistics computer program. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to assess independent prognostic factors using the Cox proportional hazards model. RESULTS: A total of 103 patients with AV histological type were identified and analyzed; there were 61, 31, and 11 cases of UPSC, CCC, and mixed tumors, respectively. Sixty-three patients had Stage I, 11 had Stage II, 15 had Stage III, and 14 had Stage IV disease. The median age of patients was 67 years with a range of 36 to 86 years. Median follow-up was 60 months with a range of 36 to 156 months. The Cox proportional hazards model showed that lymphvascular space invasion and stage are the two independent prognostic factors affecting recurrence and survival. Forty six percent of all cases underwent surgery alone, 39% underwent treatment which included pelvic RT, and 17% underwent treatment which included chemotherapy. Pelvic recurrence was reduced significantly by radiotherapy in Stages I, II, and III (19% recurrence with no RT vs 7% recurrence with RT, P < 0.005). Chemotherapy improved overall survival, but made little difference in distant relapse rates. CONCLUSIONS: Stage Ia cases treated by surgery alone have a low risk of relapse and need not be offered adjuvant systemic therapy or pelvic radiation. Patients with Ib, Ic, II, and III have significantly lower pelvic failure rates if treated with pelvic radiation, but still have a high distant failure rate. Systemic therapy did not significantly improve distant relapse-free survival, but did extend overall survival. Stage IV patients usually died within 6 months with a few responding to systemic chemotherapy. These results suggest that there is a need for randomized trials for these patients.

Adenocarcinoma, Clear Cell↗
PubMed2002

Environmental sustainability in an agricultural development project: a system dynamics approach.

Regional agricultural projects based on water resource development have many potential impacts on social and natural environments. In this research, potential long-term environmental problems of the Southeastern Anatolian Project (GAP) related to water resources, land use, land degradation, agricultural pollution and demography are analysed from a systems perspective. The analysis focuses on the totality of environmental, social and economic issues. For this purpose, a system dynamics simulation model (GAPSIM) has been developed as an experimental platform for policy analysis. GAPSIM was validated, first 'structurally', using the tests suggested by the literature and then the model 'behaviour' was tested and calibrated with respect to available data. The reference behaviour of GAPSIM reveals that, as the irrigated lands are developed, GAP faces significant water scarcity because of the increased intensity of cotton, the crop with the highest demands for water. Simulation results also indicate that two key environmental factors, pesticide and fertilizer consumption may reach undesirable levels. Alternative irrigation water release strategies, development rates of irrigated fields and farm rotation practices appear as important policy tools in achieving long-term environmental sustainability. GAPSIM promises to be not only a useful laboratory for policy makers of GAP, but also a useful generic structure applicable to other similar regional development projects.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1995

The evolution of virulence in sexually transmitted HIV/AIDS.

A mathematical model is used to examine the effects of host population demography and transmission behavior on the evolution of virulence of a sexually transmitted pathogen such as HIV. The effect of the rate at which hosts acquire new partners is shown to depend critically on the details of the host population's growth pattern, sexual contact rate, and level of infection. At density-limited equilibrium, new partner acquisition rates have no effect on virulence. In an exponentially growing host population, higher partner acquisition rates favor the less virulent strain, as do lower rates of host population growth. In contrast, in uninfected populations, faster new partner acquisition rates encourage epidemics of the more virulent strain. Two extensions of the model--one including vertical transmission and another including within-host evolution--confirm the robustness of the predictions.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1997

On the genealogy of a rare allele.

The gene genealogy is derived for a rare allele that is descended from a mutant ancestor that arose at a fixed time in the past. Following Thompson (1976, Amer. J. Human Genet. 28, 442-452), the fractional linear branching process is used as a model of the demography of a rare allele. The model does not require the total population size to be constant or the mutant class to be neutral; so long as individuals in the class are selectively equivalent, the class as a whole may have a selective advantage, or disadvantage, relative to other alleles in the population. An exact result is given for the joint probability distribution of the coalescence times among a sample of alleles descended from the mutant. A method is described for rapidly simulating these coalescence times. The relationship between the genealogical structure of a discrete generation branching process and a continuous generation birth-death process is elucidated. The theory may be applied to the problem of estimating the ages of rare nonrecurrent mutations.

Alleles↗