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Effect of some climatic factors on violent and non-violent suicides in Belgium.

We explored the differential effect of some climatic factors such as temperature, atmospheric pressure, sunlight duration and humidity grade on the temporal distribution of violent and non-violent suicides, accidental and undetermined causes of death as well as homicides in Belgium, between 1969 and 1984. Our study indicates that temperature and sunlight duration are specifically associated with the probability of violent suicide, while deaths due to non-violent causes (such as non-violent suicides) did not show any relationship to climatic factors.

Accidents↗

Acceptability and skin reactions to transdermal estrogen replacement therapy in relation to climate.

The acceptability and skin reaction of Estraderm Transdermal Therapeutic Systems as a function of climatic variability were examined in various zones which alter considerably in their temperature and humidity. An open, noncomparative prospective study was carried out in four institutional out-patient menopausal clinics in varying climatic areas. Eighty symptomatic postmenopausal patients without previous estrogen replacement were examined. Estraderm T.T.S. 50 was applied twice weekly in four weekly cycles. Norethisterone-acetate tablets (1 mg), were taken orally for 12 consecutive days. Using a questionnaire, the subjects were asked about the efficacy of the treatment on postmenopausal symptoms, the adhesiveness and tolerability. The results were matched with the meteorological conditions. The duration of the study was 6 months. Acceptability of Estraderm T.T.S. is high (78.7%). Discontinuation of treatment was found in 21.3% of the study group. The main reason for discontinuation is due to skin reactions which occurred in 14 of the 80 patients (17.5%). Meteorological conditions in this study did not influence the rate of skin reactions. No difference in acceptability of the treatment was found in relation to the mean temperature and mean humidity as registered in the dry desert and the humid coastal areas.

Administration, Cutaneous↗

Utilitarian bicycling: a multilevel analysis of climate and personal influences.

BACKGROUND: Increasing utilitarian bicycling in urban areas is a means to reduce air and noise pollution, increase physical activity, and reduce the risk of chronic diseases. We investigated the impact of individual- and city-level characteristics on bicycling in Canadian cities to inform transportation and public health policies. METHODS: The study population included 59,899 respondents to the 2003 Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) living in cities with populations greater than 50,000. In 2005, data on individual characteristics were drawn from the CCHS, and city-level climate data from Environment Canada records. Separate multilevel logistic regression models were developed for the general (nonstudent) and student populations. RESULTS: The proportion of the urban population reporting bicycling in a typical week was 7.9%, with students cycling more than nonstudents (17.2% vs 6.0%). In the general population, older age, female gender, lower education, and higher income were associated with lower likelihood of cycling. More days of precipitation per year and more days of freezing temperatures per year were both associated with lower levels of utilitarian cycling (odds ratios [ORs] for every 30-day increase in precipitation=0.84, 95% confidence interval [CI]=0.74-0.94, and for every 30-day increase in freezing temperatures OR=0.91, 95% CI=0.86-0.97). There was less variation in the proportion of students who cycled by age and income, and only the number of days with freezing temperatures influenced bicycling. CONCLUSIONS: Bicycling patterns are associated with individual demographic characteristics and the climate where one lives. This evidence might be useful to guide policy initiatives for targeted health promotion and transportation infrastructure.

Adolescent↗

The use of hormonal treatments to improve reproductive performance of anestrous beef cattle in tropical climates.

Most of the world's bovine herd is found in tropical regions. Bos indicus predominates, due to their adaptation to the climate and management conditions. Anestrous is the main factor that negatively affects reproductive performance of animals bred in these regions of the globe. Several factors affect postpartum anestrous, including suckling and maternal-offspring bond, and pre- and postpartum nutritional status. The short duration of estrus and the tendency to show estrus during the night, greatly affect the efficiency of artificial insemination (AI) programs in B. indicus cattle managed in tropical areas. Several restricted suckling or weaning procedures (temporary or permanent), and hormonal treatments have been used to induce ovulation and cyclicity in postpartum cows. Most hormonal treatments are based on progesterone/progestogen (P4) releasing devices associated with estradiol benzoate (EB), or a combination of GnRH/PGF(2alpha)/GnRH (Ovsynch). Treatments with GnRH/PGF(2alpha)/GnRH has presented inconsistent results, probably due to the variable number of cows in anestrous. Treatments using P4 devices and EB have resulted in apparently more consistent results than Ovsynch programs in B. indicus cattle; however, pregnancy rates are low in herds presenting high anestrous rates and moderate to low body condition. The addition of an eCG treatment at the time of device removal, which increased plasma progesterone concentrations and pregnancy rates in anestrous postpartum suckled B. indicus cows, may be useful to improve reproductive performance of beef cattle in tropical climates.

Anestrus↗

Long series relationships between global interannual CO2 increment and climate: evidence for stability and change in role of the tropical and boreal-temperate zones.

Interannual variability in global CO2 increment (averaged from the Mauna Loa and South Pole Stations) shows certain strong spatial relationships to both tropical and temperate temperatures. There is a fairly strong positive year-round correlation between tropical mean annual temperatures (leading by 4 months) and annual CO2 throughout the time series since 1960, agreeing with the generally held view that the tropics play a major role in determining inter-annual variability in CO2 increment, with a major CO2 pulse following a warm year in the tropics. This 'almost no lag' climatic response is very strong during winter and relatively stable in time. However, the correlation with tropical temperature appears to have weakened in the first years of the 1990s in correspondence of the Pinatubo eruption and the positive phase of the AO/NAO. A secondary concurrent temperature signal is linked to summer variations of north temperate belt. Northern summer temperatures in the region 30-60 degrees N-and especially in the land area corresponding to the central east USA-have become relatively more closely correlated with CO2 increment. This trend has become increasingly stronger in recent years, suggesting an increasing role for growing season processes in the northern midlatitudes in affecting global CO2 increment. Once non-lagged annual tropical temperature variations are accounted for, terrestrial ecosystems, especially the temperate-boreal biomes, also show a coherent large scale lagged response. This involves an inverse response to annual temperature of preceding years centered at around 2 years before. This lagged response is most likely linked to internal biogeochemical cycles, in particular N cycling. During the study period north boreal ecosystems show a strengthening of the lagged correlation with temperature in recent years, while the lagged correlation with areas of tropical ecosystems has weakened. Residuals from a multiple correlations based on these climatic signals are directly correlated with SO, confirming an additional important role of upwelling in interannual variability of CO2 increment. Cooler summers following the Pinatubo eruption and the possible influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO/AO) are discussed as factors responsible for the shift in the relative importance of different regions over time during the series of data.

Atmosphere↗

Effects of time-averaging climate parameters on predicted multicompartmental fate of pesticides and POPs.

With the aim to investigate the justification of time-averaging of climate parameters in multicompartment modelling the effects of various climate parameters and different modes of entry on the predicted substances' total environmental burdens and the compartmental fractions were studied. A simple, non-steady state zero-dimensional (box) mass-balance model of intercompartmental mass exchange which comprises four compartments was used for this purpose. Each two runs were performed, one temporally unresolved (time-averaged conditions) and a time-resolved (hourly or higher) control run. In many cases significant discrepancies are predicted, depending on the substance and on the parameter. We find discrepancies exceeding 10% relative to the control run and up to an order of magnitude for prediction of the total environmental burden from neglecting seasonalities of the soil and ocean temperatures and the hydroxyl radical concentration in the atmosphere and diurnalities of atmospheric mixing depth and the hydroxyl radical concentration in the atmosphere. Under some conditions it was indicated that substance sensitivity could be explained by the magnitude of the sink terms in the compartment(s) with parameters varying. In general, however, any key for understanding substance sensitivity seems not be linked in an easy manner to the properties of the substance, to the fractions of its burden or to the sink terms in either of the compartments with parameters varying. Averaging of diurnal variability was found to cause errors of total environmental residence time of different sign for different substances. The effects of time-averaging of several parameters are in general not additive but synergistic as well as compensatory effects occur. An implication of these findings is that the ranking of substances according to persistence is sensitive to time resolution on the scale of hours to months. As a conclusion it is recommended to use high temporal resolution in multi-media modelling.

Climate↗

Climate change and the emergence of Vibrio vulnificus disease in Israel.

In 1996, a major unexplained outbreak of systemic Vibrio vulnificus infection erupted among Israeli fish market workers. The origins of this emergent infectious disease have not been fully understood. A possible link between climate change and disease emergence is being investigated. Meteorological service data from 1981, the earliest detection and reporting of V. vulnificus for the time in Israel, to 1998 for two stations located within the main inland fish farm industry were analyzed. The 1996-1998 summers were identified as the hottest ever recorded in Israel in the previous 40 years. Time series of monthly minimum, maximum, and mean temperatures showed significant increase in the summer temperatures along the 18 years. The highest minimum temperature value was recorded in summer 1996. Lag correlation analysis revealed significant correlations between temperature values and hospital admission dates. The eruption appeared 25-30 days after the extreme heat conditions in summer 1996, at a lag of 3 weeks in summer 1997 while the results for 1998 were at a lag of less than a week. Higher significant results were detected for the daily minimum temperatures in summer 1996 compatible with the disease eruption. These findings suggest that high water temperature might have impacted the ecology of our study area and caused the emergence of the disease, as an effect of global climate change.

Climate↗

Forensic entomology and climatic change.

Forensic entomology establishes the postmortem interval (PMI) by studying cadaveric fauna. The PMI today is still largely based on tables of insect succession on human cadavers compiled in the late 19th- or mid-20th centuries. In the last few years, however, the gradual warming of the climate has been changing faunal communities by favouring the presence of thermophilous species. To demonstrate how globalization and climate change are overcoming geographic barriers, we present some cases of southern and allochthonous species found in north-east Italy during our entomo-forensic investigations.

Animals↗

Environmental sub models for a macroeconomic model: agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification in Denmark.

Integrated modelling of the interaction between environmental pressure and economic development is a useful tool to evaluate environmental consequences of policy initiatives. However, the usefulness of such models is often restricted by the fact that these models only include a limited set of environmental impacts, which are often energy-related emissions. In order to evaluate the development in the overall environmental pressure correctly, these model systems must be extended. In this article an integrated macroeconomic model system of the Danish economy with environmental modules of energy related emissions is extended to include the agricultural contribution to climate change and acidification. Next to the energy sector, the agricultural sector is the most important contributor to these environmental themes and subsequently the extended model complex calculates more than 99% of the contribution to both climate change and acidification. Environmental sub-models are developed for agriculture-related emissions of CH(4), N(2)O and NH(3). Agricultural emission sources related to the production specific activity variables are mapped and emission dependent parameters are identified in order to calculate emission coefficients. The emission coefficients are linked to the economic activity variables of the Danish agricultural production. The model system is demonstrated by projections of agriculture-related emissions in Denmark under two alternative sets of assumptions: a baseline projection of the general economic development and a policy scenario for changes in the husbandry sector within the agricultural sector.

Agriculture↗

Geographic variation for climatic stress resistance traits in the springtail Orchesella cincta.

Multiple traits of stress resistance were investigated in the epedaphic springtail Orchesella cincta. Second generation adults from five laboratory populations were compared with respect to resistance to extreme temperatures and desiccation, and traits relevant to climatic adaptation. Populations were collected along a 2000-km latitudinal gradient ranging from Denmark to southern Italy and reared under the same standard laboratory conditions. Traits investigated were resistance to high and low temperature, desiccation resistance, body size and water loss rate (WLR). Results showed genetically based differences in resistance to high and low temperature, desiccation, WLR, water pool and body size between populations. Individuals from the most northern population had the highest desiccation-and cold shock resistance, and the lowest heat shock resistance. Females were significantly more desiccation resistant than males. The results of cold shock resistance showed a positive increase with lowest environmental temperature recorded at the sites of population origin, whereas heat shock resistance showed a positive increase with highest recorded temperature at the sites of population origin. Desiccation resistance increased towards the most southern and northern population, suggesting that both low and high temperature extremes affect desiccation resistance. Body mass, water pool and WLR showed interpopulation as well as sex specific variation. This provides evidence for geographical variation in stress resistance of springtails related to climatic conditions.

Animals↗

Learning, climate and the evolution of cultural capacity.

Patterns of environmental variation influence the utility, and thus evolution, of different learning strategies. I use stochastic, individual-based evolutionary models to assess the relative advantages of 15 different learning strategies (genetic determination, individual learning, vertical social learning, horizontal/oblique social learning, and contingent combinations of these) when competing in variable environments described by 1/f noise. When environmental variation has little effect on fitness, then genetic determinism persists. When environmental variation is large and equal over all time-scales ("white noise") then individual learning is adaptive. Social learning is advantageous in "red noise" environments when variation over long time-scales is large. Climatic variability increases with time-scale, so that short-lived organisms should be able to rely largely on genetic determination. Thermal climates usually are insufficiently red for social learning to be advantageous for species whose fitness is very determined by temperature. In contrast, population trajectories of many species, especially large mammals and aquatic carnivores, are sufficiently red to promote social learning in their predators. The ocean environment is generally redder than that on land. Thus, while individual learning should be adaptive for many longer-lived organisms, social learning will often be found in those dependent on the populations of other species, especially if they are marine. This provides a potential explanation for the evolution of a prevalence of social learning, and culture, in humans and cetaceans.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Complex hybrid models combining deterministic and machine learning components for numerical climate modeling and weather prediction.

A new practical application of neural network (NN) techniques to environmental numerical modeling has been developed. Namely, a new type of numerical model, a complex hybrid environmental model based on a synergetic combination of deterministic and machine learning model components, has been introduced. Conceptual and practical possibilities of developing hybrid models are discussed in this paper for applications to climate modeling and weather prediction. The approach presented here uses NN as a statistical or machine learning technique to develop highly accurate and fast emulations for time consuming model physics components (model physics parameterizations). The NN emulations of the most time consuming model physics components, short and long wave radiation parameterizations or full model radiation, presented in this paper are combined with the remaining deterministic components (like model dynamics) of the original complex environmental model--a general circulation model or global climate model (GCM)--to constitute a hybrid GCM (HGCM). The parallel GCM and HGCM simulations produce very similar results but HGCM is significantly faster. The speed-up of model calculations opens the opportunity for model improvement. Examples of developed HGCMs illustrate the feasibility and efficiency of the new approach for modeling complex multidimensional interdisciplinary systems.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Exploratory analysis of climate data using source separation methods.

We present an example of exploratory data analysis of climate measurements using a recently developed denoising source separation (DSS) framework. We analyzed a combined dataset containing daily measurements of three variables: surface temperature, sea level pressure and precipitation around the globe, for a period of 56 years. Components exhibiting slow temporal behavior were extracted using DSS with linear denoising. The first component, most prominent in the interannual time scale, captured the well-known El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon and the second component was close to the derivative of the first one. The slow components extracted in a wider frequency range were further rotated using a frequency-based separation criterion implemented by DSS with nonlinear denoising. The rotated sources give a meaningful representation of the slow climate variability as a combination of trends, interannual oscillations, the annual cycle and slowly changing seasonal variations. Again, components related to the ENSO phenomenon emerge very clearly among the found sources.

Atmospheric Pressure↗

Associations between management, climate, and Escherichia coli O157 in the faeces of feedlot cattle in the Midwestern USA.

Our objective was to generate hypotheses for potential on-farm control strategies for Escherichia coli O157 by identifying associations between management practices and climate, and the presence of E. coli O157 in feedlot cattle. Faeces were obtained from 10,622 cattle in 711 pens on 73 feedlots between May and August 2001. Management and climate information was obtained by questionnaire and observation at the time of sampling. The prevalence of E. coli O157 was 10.2% at the sample level, 52.0% at the pen-level, and 95.9% at the feedlot-level. The factors associated with the presence of E. coli O157 in cattle faeces were the frequency of observing cats in the pens or alleys (most common when observed daily), the presence of E. coli O157 in the water tanks (positive association), the historical use of injectable mass medication (positive association), the use of antibiotics in the ration or water (negative association), the wetness of the pen, number of cattle in the pen (negative association), wind velocity (positive association), and height of the feed bunk (positive association).

Animal Husbandry↗

Climate change and the migration capacity of species.

In a recent paper, McLachlan et al. presented evidence that migration rates of two tree species at the end of the last glacial (c. 10-20 thousand years ago) were much slower than was previously thought. These results provide an important insight for climate-change impacts studies and suggest that the ability of species to track future climate change is limited. However, the detection of late-glacial refugia close to modern range limits also implies that some of our most catastrophic projections might be overstated.

Climate↗

Top predators provide insurance against climate change.

Recent research by Wilmers et al. shows that top predators might buffer some of the ecological effects of climate change. Top predators can regulate the structure of entire communities and dampen their variability; however, in their absence, prey populations are likely to fluctuate greatly owing to bottom-up factors. Restoring top predators to their natural environment could provide insurance against undesired effects of climate change on ecological communities.

Animals↗

Influence of inter-annual variations in climatic factors on fecal coliform levels in Mississippi Sound.

Information on the effects of inter-annual variations in climatic factors on fecal coliform levels in coastal waters is scarce. We used 11 years (1990-2001) of rainfall, water temperature, Pearl River stage and salinity data to assess the effects of the 1991-1992 and 1997-1998 El Nino events on fecal coliform levels in Mississippi Sound. El Nino-Southern Oscillation had major effects on Pearl River stage and water quality in the Sound. The geometric mean fecal coliform number differed among years (P = 0.0001), being highest during 1991-1992 El Nino years (14.22 MPN per 100 ml) and lowest during 1999-2000 La Nina years (<1.8 MPN per 100 ml). Mean salinity varied among years (P = 0.0001) from 9 ppt (1991-1992) to 21 ppt (1999-2000). Mean water temperature was lowest in 1997-1998 (14.5 degrees C) and highest in 1998-2000 (19.4 degrees C). Pearl River stage differed among years (P = 0.0001), ranging from 1.96 m (1999-2000) to 3.57 m (1997-1998). Inverse relationships were observed between fecal coliform levels and salinity (r(2) = 0.74; P = 0.001) and water temperature (r(2) = 0.69; P=0.001), whereas positive relationships were obtained with total rainfall (r(2) = 0.52; P = 0.013) and Pearl River stage (r(2) = 0.90; P = 0.0001). These relationships are useful for evaluating the potential effects of climate change on water quality and classification of shellfish growing waters in order to protect humans from consuming contaminated shellfish in shallow river-influenced estuaries.

Animals↗

Flow patterns of dairy wastewater constructed wetlands in a cold climate.

Conservative tracer experiments, and spatial temperature and dissolved oxygen mapping within four subsurface treatment wetlands employed in this study demonstrated the importance of supplemental aeration and vegetation in reducing preferential flows in cold climate treatment wetlands. Four constructed wetlands, employing horizontal subsurface flow were used to treat dairy wastewater in a 2 x 2 factorial design consisting of two wetland cells with vegetation and two with supplemental aeration. Four tracer studies were conducted between November 2004 and May 2005. Two key observations were made, demonstrating that vegetation and aeration can be utilized in cold regions to prevent clogging and freezing, thereby reducing preferential flow paths which can reduce treatment efficiencies: (1) vegetation contributed to thermal protection and (2) aeration increased temperature and mixing. A comparison of multiple wetland cells with varying flow rates showed that the use of pore volume in tracer response curves was a better indicator of preferential flows than other indicators including volumetric efficiency, hydraulic efficiency and number of continuosly stirred tank reactors (CSTRs). This research helps further establish how constructed wetlands are a viable tool for treating wastewater in cold climates.

Air↗