The persistence of depression score.
OBJECTIVE: To construct a score that allows prediction of major depressive episode (MDE) persistence in individuals with MDE using determinants of persistence identified in previous research. METHOD: Data were derived from 250 subjects from the general population with new MDE according to DSM-III-R. These subjects were recruited from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS), using the Composite International Diagnostic Interview. Determinants for persistence were transformed into a practical risk score using proportional hazards models and bootstrapping techniques. RESULTS: The risk of MDE persistence after 12 months was 23%. The score comprised measures of physical illness, social support, depression severity and recurrency, and duration of previous episodes. With increasing categories of these measures, the predicted risks increased from 7 to 40%. CONCLUSION: We constructed the Persistence of Depression Score (PDS) showing reasonable performance. The PDS could be of importance in clinical practice to support treatment decisions.