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Selective effects in potential fertility: a simulation study.

"The effect of various factors on selection for family planning status and for natural fecundability is studied in a Monte Carlo simulation that incorporates heterogeneity of natural fecundability and of risks of foetal loss. Selection depends crucially on the duration of marriage at which contraceptive status is recorded, and on desired family size....The contraceptive status of sterile women is also revealed in the simulation, including users who do not know that they have become sterile. Formulae are developed to allow the estimation of births averted and potential fertility among the users, and results checked by further simulation." The results indicate "that selection for foetal loss is much less important than selection for natural fecundability in its effect on numbers of averted births and potential fertility." (summary in FRE)

Contraception↗

Translating pilot project success into national policy development: two projects in Bangladesh.

"This article reviews the experience of two pilot projects in Bangladesh that have addressed the question of how [operations] research can be designed to foster its utilization. In a rural field experiment [begun in 1972] in Matlab subdistrict, research has demonstrated that contraceptive services, if carefully designed and properly implemented, can influence demographic dynamics even where social and economic circumstances are not conducive to fertility change. Despite the success that Matlab represents, the project was not systematically utilized for policy until a second study [begun in 1981] was launched to address government questions concerning its replicability in the public sector programme. Results suggest that pilot projects, if fielded in conjunction with research systems for testing their replicability, can foster organizational development in contexts that are not conducive to bureaucratic change."

Asia↗