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Phenology and abundance in relation to climatic variation in a sub-arctic insect herbivore-mountain birch system.

The two forest-defoliating geometrid moth species Operophtera brumata and Epirrita autumnata are known to exhibit different altitudinal distribution patterns in northern birch forests. One possible explanation for this is that altitudinal climatic variation differentially affects the performance of two species through mismatching larval and host plant phenology. We explored this hypothesis by investigating the relationship between larval phenology and leaf phenology of Betula pubescens, which is the main host plant of both moth species, along ten replicate altitudinal transects during two springs with contrasting climate in northern Norway. There was a distinct monotonous cline in host plant phenology with increasing altitude in both years of the study, but the development of the leaves were generally 14 days later in the first of the 2 years due to cold spring weather. We found that larval development of both species closely tracked host plant leaf phenology independent of altitude and year. However, at the time of sampling, E. autumnata was approximately one instar ahead of O. brumata at all altitudes, probably reflecting that E. autumnata has faster early instar growth than O. brumata. The abundance of O. brumata was lowest at the altitudinal forest-line, while E. autumnata was lowest near sea level. Our results do not indicate that the altitudinal distribution patterns of the two moth species is due to any phenological mismatch between larval and host plant phenology. We suggest rather that natural enemies at low altitudes limit larval survival and thus abundance of E. autumnata, while an early onset of winter at the forest limit reduces survival of late eclosing adults of O. brumata.

Altitude↗

Increased effect of harsh climate in red deer with a poor set of teeth.

Teeth are vital for mammal performance and especially in ungulates relying on mechanical decomposition of plant material for effective microbial digestion and energy uptake. The main focus of the role of teeth in ungulate life histories has been on tooth wear, while no one has addressed to what extent deviation from the natural set of teeth (maldentition) causes variation in individual fitness components. Based on mandibles from 41,066 individual red deer (Cervus elaphus L.) collected from 1969 to 2001, we tested whether maldentition had an effect on individual body condition and whether this effect depended on environmental harshness. Females with maldentition (0.6% of the population) were in a poorer condition than individuals without tooth anomalies and the effect increased during unfavorable climatic conditions. The effect of maldentition in males was less clear. This study indicates that a well-functioning set of teeth is essential for mammal performance, and that selection pressure against (dental) anomalies is more pronounced when climate is unfavorable.

Age Factors↗

Variable effects of climate change on six species of North American birds.

Many recent studies have shown that birds are advancing their laying date in response to long-term increases in spring temperatures. These studies have been conducted primarily in Europe and at local scales. If climate change is a large-scale phenomenon, then we should see responses at larger scales and in other regions. We examined the effects of long-term temperature change on the laying dates and clutch sizes of six ecologically diverse species of North American birds using 50 years of nest record data. As predicted, laying dates for most (four of six) species were earlier when spring temperatures were warmer. Over the long-term, laying dates advanced over time for two species (red-winged blackbirds, Agelaius phoeniceus and eastern bluebirds, Sialia sialis). Laying date of song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) also advanced with increasing temperature when the analysis was restricted to eastern populations. Neither laying date nor clutch sizes changed significantly over time in the remaining species (American coot, Fulica americana, killdeer, Charadrius vociferous, and American robin, Turdus migratorius), an unsurprising result given the lack of increase in temperatures over time at nest locations of these species. This study indicates that the relationship between climate change and breeding in birds is variable within and among species. In large-scale analyses of North American birds, four of seven species have shown advances in laying dates with increasing temperature (including song sparrows in the east). These variable responses within and among species highlight the need for more detailed studies across large spatial scales.

Animal Migration↗

Shifts in caterpillar biomass phenology due to climate change and its impact on the breeding biology of an insectivorous bird.

Timing of reproduction has major fitness consequences, which can only be understood when the phenology of the food for the offspring is quantified. For insectivorous birds, like great tits (Parus major), synchronisation of their offspring needs and abundance of caterpillars is the main selection pressure. We measured caterpillar biomass over a 20-year period and showed that the annual peak date is correlated with temperatures from 8 March to 17 May. Laying dates also correlate with temperatures, but over an earlier period (16 March-20 April). However, as we would predict from a reliable cue used by birds to time their reproduction, also the food peak correlates with these temperatures. Moreover, the slopes of the phenology of the birds and caterpillar biomass, when regressed against the temperatures in this earlier period, do not differ. The major difference is that due to climate change, the relationship between the timing of the food peak and the temperatures over the 16 March-20 April period is changing, while this is not so for great tit laying dates. As a consequence, the synchrony between offspring needs and the caterpillar biomass has been disrupted in the recent warm decades. This may have severe consequences as we show that both the number of fledglings as well as their fledging weight is affected by this synchrony. We use the descriptive models for both the caterpillar biomass peak as for the great tit laying dates to predict shifts in caterpillar and bird phenology 2005-2100, using an IPCC climate scenario. The birds will start breeding earlier and this advancement is predicted to be at the same rate as the advancement of the food peak, and hence they will not reduce the amount of the current mistiming of about 10 days.

Animals↗

The effect of irradiance, vertical mixing and temperature on spring phytoplankton dynamics under climate change: long-term observations and model analysis.

Spring algal development in deep temperate lakes is thought to be strongly influenced by surface irradiance, vertical mixing and temperature, all of which are expected to be altered by climate change. Based on long-term data from Lake Constance, we investigated the individual and combined effects of these variables on algal dynamics using descriptive statistics, multiple regression models and a process-oriented dynamic simulation model. The latter considered edible and less-edible algae and was forced by observed or anticipated irradiance, temperature and vertical mixing intensity. Unexpectedly, irradiance often dominated algal net growth rather than vertical mixing for the following reason: algal dynamics depended on algal net losses from the euphotic layer to larger depth due to vertical mixing. These losses strongly depended on the vertical algal gradient which, in turn, was determined by the mixing intensity during the previous days, thereby introducing a memory effect. This observation implied that during intense mixing that had already reduced the vertical algal gradient, net losses due to mixing were small. Consequently, even in deep Lake Constance, the reduction in primary production due to low light was often more influential than the net losses due to mixing. In the regression model, the dynamics of small, fast-growing algae was best explained by vertical mixing intensity and global irradiance, whereas those of larger algae were best explained by their biomass 1 week earlier. The simulation model additionally revealed that even in late winter grazing may represent an important loss factor during calm periods when losses due to mixing are small. The importance of losses by mixing and grazing changed rapidly as it depended on the variable mixing intensity. Higher temperature, lower global irradiance and enhanced mixing generated lower algal biomass and primary production in the dynamic simulation model. This suggests that potential consequences of climate change may partly counteract each other.

Climate↗

Influence of climate variability on whitefish (Coregonus lavaretus) year-class strength in a deep, warm monomictic lake.

The year-class strength (YCS) of Blaufelchen (Coregonus lavaretus) in deep Upper Lake Constance was analysed for a 52-year period, from 1947 to 1998. Despite strong anthropogenic influences on the species' population dynamics due to cultural eutrophication and oligotrophication, intense fishing, and large-scale stocking, the influence of climate variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is apparent in the data set. This influence is significant although large-scale stocking of cold-bred larvae was performed to avoid a mismatch of larvae with their food. The importance of stocking on YCS, however, is unclear and was only detectable when analysing a subset of the data. In addition to climate variability a yet unidentified factor related to zooplankton suitability as food for fish larvae, and density-dependent mortality probably related to cannibalism do significantly influence YCS. The NAO seemed to influence YCS twofold, through temperature effects on egg development time and on larval growth rate. The first of these two mechanisms is related to the NAO via a time lag of 1 year due to the specific mixing dynamics of warm monomictic Lake Constance. Hence, a warm winter in the year before spawning results in earlier hatching of larvae, that is, hatching is decoupled from the actual meteorological conditions. This should make the larvae very prone to mismatch the dynamics of their food. However, we found no evidence for such a mismatch in this 52-year data set.

Animals↗

Modeling valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) incidence on the basis of climate conditions.

Valley fever (coccidioidomycosis) is a disease endemic to arid regions within the Western Hemisphere, and is caused by a soil-dwelling fungus, Coccidioides immitis. Incidence data for Pima County, reported to the Arizona Department of Health Services as new cases of valley fever, were used to conduct exploratory analyses and develop monthly multivariate models of relationships between valley fever incidence and climate conditions and variability in Pima County, Arizona, USA. Bivariate and compositing analyses conducted during the exploratory portion of the study revealed that antecedent temperature and precipitation in different seasons are important predictors of incidence. These results were used in the selection of candidate variables for multivariate predictive modeling, which was designed to predict deviation from mean incidence on the basis of past, current, and forecast climate conditions. The models were specified using a backward stepwise procedure, and were most sensitive to key predictor variables in the winter season and variables that were time-lagged 1 year or more prior to the month being predicted. Model accuracy was generally moderate ( r(2) values for the monthly models, tested on independent data, ranged from 0.15 to 0.50), and months with high incidence can be predicted more accurately than months with low incidence.

Arizona↗

Climatic factors governing plant phenological phases along a Norwegian fjord.

In the present project, the time of leaf budding and flowering, and partly also of fruit ripening, was studied over 3 years in different cultivated and native plants on a gradient along a western Norwegian fjord about 300 km long, from oceanic to relatively continental regions. In the plants investigated, flowering of the red currant was most strongly favoured by oceanic conditions in the outermost part of the fjord. On the other hand, flowering of the apple was earliest in the middle district, as were flowering of the common lilac and raspberry, while differences were small between the districts for flowering of the plum and pear. In the inner district, leaf budding of the apple was about 1.5 weeks earlier than flowering of the red currant, while these two phenophases, on average, occurred on the same day in the oceanic district. The time from 1 April to flowering was generally lengthened by increased precipitation in the pear, apple, lilac and raspberry, but not in the red currant and plum. By contrast, the period from leaf budding to flowering was significantly shortened in the plum by high precipitation. The present studies also indicated that leaf budding of the birch was favoured by the high minimum temperature and the relatively high precipitation normally found in the oceanic district. Partial correlations showed that increased precipitation delayed the flowering of both rowan and bird cherry trees; there was also a week effect on bud break in the same two species. The clear conclusion of the present study, therefore, is that various plant species react differently to various climatic factors ("phenological interception"), even in different phenophases within the same species. This means that the various species are best fitted to certain climatic regions and should preferably be planted there if other growth factors are satisfactory.

Climate↗

Climate variability and campylobacter infection: an international study.

Campylobacter is among the most important agents of enteritis in developed countries. We have described the potential environmental determinants of the seasonal pattern of infection with campylobacter in Europe, Canada, Australia and New Zealand. Specifically, we investigated the role of climate variability on laboratory-confirmed cases of campylobacter infection from 15 populations. Regression analysis was used to quantify the associations between timing of seasonal peaks in infection in space and time. The short-term association between weekly weather and cases was also investigated using Poisson regression adapted for time series data. All countries in our study showed a distinct seasonality in campylobacter transmission, with many, but not all, populations showing a peak in spring. Countries with milder winters have peaks of infection earlier in the year. The timing of the peak of infection is weakly associated with high temperatures 3 months previously. Weekly variation in campylobacter infection in one region of the UK appeared to be little affected by short-term changes in weather patterns. The geographical variation in the timing of the seasonal peak suggests that climate may be a contributing factor to campylobacter transmission. The main driver of seasonality of campylobacter remains elusive and underscores the need to identify the major serotypes and routes of transmission for this disease.

Australia↗

Predicting the onset of net carbon uptake by deciduous forests with soil temperature and climate data: a synthesis of FLUXNET data.

We tested the hypothesis that the date of the onset of net carbon uptake by temperate deciduous forest canopies corresponds with the time when the mean daily soil temperature equals the mean annual air temperature. The hypothesis was tested using over 30 site-years of data from 12 field sites where CO(2) exchange is being measured continuously with the eddy covariance method. The sites spanned the geographic range of Europe, North America and Asia and spanned a climate space of 16 degrees C in mean annual temperature. The tested phenology rule was robust and worked well over a 75 day range of the initiation of carbon uptake, starting as early as day 88 near Ione, California to as late as day 147 near Takayama, Japan. Overall, we observed that 64% of variance in the timing when net carbon uptake started was explained by the date when soil temperature matched the mean annual air temperature. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual air temperature and the day that a deciduous forest starts to be a carbon sink. Consequently we are able to provide a simple phenological rule that can be implemented in regional carbon balance models and be assessed with soil and temperature outputs produced by climate and weather models.

Air↗

The effects of climate change on the phenology of selected Estonian plant, bird and fish populations.

This paper summarises the trends of 943 phenological time-series of plants, fishes and birds gathered from 1948 to 1999 in Estonia. More than 80% of the studied phenological phases have advanced during springtime, whereas changes are smaller during summer and autumn. Significant values of plant and bird phases have advanced 5-20 days, and fish phases have advanced 10-30 days in the spring period. Estonia's average air temperature has become significantly warmer in spring, while at the same time a slight decrease in air temperature has been detected in autumn. The growing season has become significantly longer in the maritime climate area of Western Estonia. The investigated phenological and climate trends are related primarily to changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAOI) during the winter months. Although the impact of the winter NAOI on the phases decreases towards summer, the trends of the investigated phases remain high. The trends of phenophases at the end of spring and the beginning of summer may be caused by the temperature inertia of the changing winter, changes in the radiation balance or the direct consequences of human impacts such as land use, heat islands or air pollution.

Animals↗

Temperature-related mortality in France, a comparison between regions with different climates from the perspective of global warming.

This paper aims to explain the results of an observational population study that was carried out between 1991 and 1995 in six regions (departments) in France. The study was to assess the relationship between temperature and mortality in a few areas of France that offer widely varying climatic conditions and lifestyles, to determine their thermal optimum, defined as a 3 degrees C temperature band with the lowest mortality rate in each area, and then to compare the mortality rates from this baseline band with temperatures above and below the baseline. The study period was selected because it did not include extreme cold or hot events such as a heatwave. Data on daily deaths from each department were first used to examine the entire population and then to examine men, women, various age groups and various causes of death (respiratory disease, stroke, ischaemic heart disease, other disease of the circulatory system, and all other causes excluding violent deaths). Mean temperatures were provided by the National Weather Service. The results depicted an asymmetrical V- or U-shaped relationship between mortality and temperature, with a thermal optimum lower for the elderly, and generally lower for women than for men except in Paris. The relationship was also different depending on the cause of death. In all cases, more evidence was collected showing that cold weather was more deadly than hot weather, and it would now be interesting to enlarge the study to include years with cold spells and heatwaves. Furthermore, the results obtained could be of great use in estimating weather-related mortality as a consequence of future climate-change scenarios.

Climate↗

Indoor climate and air quality. Review of current and future topics in the field of ISB study group 10.

In industrialized countries about 90% of the time is spent indoors. The ambient parameters affecting indoor thermal comfort are air temperature and humidity, air velocity, and radiant heat exchange within an enclosure. In assessing the thermal environment, one needs to consider all ambient parameters, the insulating properties of the occupants' clothing, and the activity level of the occupants by means of heat balance models of the human body. Apart from thermal parameters, air quality (measured and perceived) is also of importance for well-being and health in indoor environments. Pollutant levels are influenced by both outdoor concentrations and by indoor emissions. Indoor levels can thus be lower (e.g. in the case of ozone and SO2) or higher (e.g. for CO2 and formaldehyde) than outdoor levels. Emissions from cooking play an important role, especially in developing countries. The humidity of the ambient air has a wide range of effects on the energy and water balance of the body as well as on elasticity, air quality perception, build-up of electrostatic charge and the formation or mould. However, its effect on the indoor climate is often overestimated. While air-handling systems are commonly used for achieving comfortable indoor climates, their use has also been linked to a variety of problems, some of which have received attention within the context of "sick building syndrome".

Air Pollution, Indoor↗

Integral assessment of climate impact on the transboundary Mesta River flow formation in Bulgaria.

The present work considers the section of the Mesta River on Bulgarian territory using the integral method for evaluation of climate and anthropogenic impact on the river flow. The level of this impact is determined by the index K(i) (flow module), the coefficient C(i) for the deviation of the average annual water volume Q(i) from the flow norm Q(o) and the index h(i) for the deviation of the average annual rainfall volume H(i) from the average multi-annual rainfall volume H(o). The dynamics of the average annual flow Q(i) at two typical hydrometric stations - Yakoruda and Khadzhidimovo, as well as the dynamics of the average annual rainfall for the Yakoruda station was examined for the period 1955-2003. The data for the considered period 1955-2003 exhibit a decreasing trend of the average annual water volumes dynamics for both stations due to the impact of climate changes in the Mesta River catchment.

Bulgaria↗

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in U.S. veterans: 2. Latitude, climate and the risk of multiple sclerosis.

An analysis of ten climatic factors and elevation for the counties of birth of 4371 U.S. white male veterans with multiple sclerosis and matched controls has been made in relation to birthplace latitude. The climatic factors include an air pollution index, concentrations of minerals in ground water, measures of annual solar radiation, both in energy per unit area and in hours of sunshine, mean annual periods of high and low temperatures, and measures of annual rainfall and average humidity. These variables all significantly influence the risk of multiple sclerosis when analyzed alone, but when they are adjusted for latitude, their effect is found to be due to their correlation with this variable.

Air Pollution↗

Air pollution, climate, socioeconomic status and total mortality in the United States.

This study examines the relative effects of air pollution, climate, and socioeconomic status (SES) on total mortality rate for 49 cities in the United States during the period 1968-1970 by using the multivariate regression model. Socioeconomic variables explain a greater percentage of the variation in the total mortality than do air pollution and climate variables. The results showed that excess mortality was associated with concentrations of benzene-soluble organic matter (BSO) and, to a lesser extent, total suspended particulates (TSP). It seemed likely that TSP and BSO were acting as a substitute for one another, without causal relationship. These findings have provided some limited conclusions; and more refined research is proposed.

Age Factors↗

Sensitization to house dust mites in different climatic areas.

With the use of local meteorologic data, the mean monthly indoor relative humidity (RH) was calculated for the area of residence of each of 774 children with respiratory symptoms who were referred to our allergy clinic. Seven hundred fourteen children lived in areas in which the mean indoor RH was 50% or more for 4 or more mo per year ("humid" areas), and 60 children lived where this RH was present for no more than 2 mo per year ("dry" areas). Of those children from the "humid" areas, the skin prick test was positive to Dermatophagoides farinae in 31% and D. pteronyssinus in 40%, whereas in those children from "dry" areas, tests were positive in 3% and 2%, respectively, (p less than 0.001). There was also a marked difference in the degree of sensitivity. In those children with a positive RAST (more than 12% of binding relative to allergen-specific pooled reference sera), the mean level of binding was 51% +/- 3.5% for D. farinae and 62% +/- 4.4% for D. pteronyssinus in children from "humid" areas but never exceeded 14% for either species in those children from "dry" areas (p less than 0.001). Sensitivity to D. farinae and D. pteronyssinus is frequent in "humid" areas and seldom, if it is ever, occurs in areas that are "dry," either as a result of a semiarid climate or a prolonged heating season. These findings have implications for the etiologic diagnosis and specific treatment of atopic patients living in different climatic regions.

Child↗

The effects of season, climate, and air-conditioning on the prevalence of Dermatophagoides mite allergens in household dust.

BACKGROUND: Clinical evidence reveals a strong relationship between dust mite allergen levels and asthma. This study suggests the relative importance and interactions among factors that influence mite allergen levels in human dwellings. METHODS: Dermatophagoides pteronyssinus allergen (Der p I) and D. farinae allergen (Der f I) were measured in 536 dust samples collected from 424 homes across the United States. RESULTS: There were distinct seasonal fluctuations of Der p I and Der f I. Der p I rapidly increased to peak in July then gradually decreased through October. Der f I slowly rose to peak later, around September, before declining. Different climates in regions of the United States had no significant affect on the quantity of Der p I or Der f I. However, regional climate differences seemed to influence the prevalence of either D. pteronyssinus or D. farinae. Air-conditioning significantly reduced (p < 0.001) Der I mite allergens detected in the dust samples, and a tendency existed for Der f I to be higher than Der p I in air-conditioned homes. There was a significant (p < 0.01) interaction between air-conditioning and seasons. The most dramatic affect was observed during the summer months, the cooling season, from approximately May to September. CONCLUSIONS: These findings show that distinct seasonal fluctuations exist of D. pteronyssinus and D. farinae mite populations, and suggest that differences in the microclimate within homes may have a dramatic affect on Dermatophagoides mite populations.

Air Conditioning↗