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PubMed2004

Congenital anomalies and proximity to landfill sites.

The occurrence of congenital anomalies in proximity to municipal landfill sites in the Eastern Region (counties Dublin, Kildare, Wicklow) was examined by small area (district electoral division), distance and clustering tendancies in relation to 83 landfills, five of which were major sites. The study included 2136 cases of congenital anomaly, 37,487 births and 1423 controls between 1986 and 1990. For the more populous areas of the region 50% of the population lived within 2-3 km of a landfill and within 4-5 km for more rural areas. In the area-level analysis, the standardised prevalence ratios, empirical and full Bayesian modelling, and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic found no association between the residential area of cases and location of landfills. In the case control analysis, the mean distance of cases and controls from the nearest landfill was similar. The odds ratios of cases compared to controls for increasing distances from all landfills and major landfills showed no significant difference from the baseline value of 1. The kernel and K methods showed no tendency of cases to cluster in relationship to landfills. In conclusion, congenital anomalies were not found to occur more commonly in proximity to municipal landfills.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1986

The costs of urbanization: a case study of Pakistan.

"A methodology is developed for estimating the aggregate costs of urbanization in Pakistan for 1983-2003. These costs are then compared with the future investment resource pool, and are found to be larger than the total pool. Alternative policy solutions to alleviate the problem are explored. Although some capital-saving strategies (such as major public works programs in rural areas and labor-intensive employment policies) would be helpful, it will be impossible to avoid a substantial rise in the proportion of the urban population without services from about one quarter to about one half of the total. The paper concludes with suggestions for refining the methodology in future studies."

Asia↗
PubMed1999

[Intestinal schistosomiasis from Schistosoma mansoni in Madagascar: extent and center of the endemic].

Schistosoma mansoni and S. haematobium affect respectively 2 million and 500,000 persons in Madagascar. Over the past decade, S. mansoni has spread in the central Highlands of Madagascar, essentially throughout the mid-west and Antananarivo plain. To understand this recent change in the epidemiology of S. mansoni, we examined the relationship between its spatial distribution and several host factors, including labour migration, urbanization and water development projects. In the Highlands, the disease in distribution could be superimposed on the potential expansion areas of snail distribution defined in 1958. However, the distribution is not homogeneous, as for example the road between Betafo and Mandoto (South West of Antananarivo). This focal pattern described in other African countries is unique to the central Highlands of Madagascar. Rice cultivation is the main economic activity and is associated with intense water contact. The focal distribution may be related to an environmental adaptation of host-parasite interaction depending on behavioural patterns, water and soil chemistry and incompatibility between Biomphalaria pfeifferi and S. mansoni. It is also possible that these focal patterns precede homogeneous endemicity, as along the road Itasy-Tsiroanomandidy (west Antananarivo). Major water development carried out in this migration area led to a rapid endemization of the disease. In Befato-Mandoto, where soil management is more restricted, schistosomiasis due to S. mansoni seems to have been established in some foci where epidemiologic conditions are favourable (for example, traditional irrigation canals). In contrast, the spread of S. mansoni in the Antananarivo plain closely follows the settlement of an infected rural population. Epidemiologic surveys conducted on school children in the Antananarivo suburbs, where sanitary conditions are poor, showed a prevalence of 25%. Human migration linked to development projects and urbanization seems to be the principal factor associated with the spread of schistosomiasis in the mid-west area and Antananarivo plain. In the Highlands, the preferential exposure of adult labour migrants has contributed to the widening of the endemic area.

Adult↗
PubMed1982

The World Fertility Survey: charting global childbearing.

Interviewing some 350,000 women in 42 developing countries and 20 developed countries representing nearly 40% of the world's population, the World Fertility Survey (WFS) is in a unique position to document the historic 1970s slowdown in global population growth. This Bulletin describes efforts begun in 1972 to ensure high quality, internationally comparable, accessible data, the data's importance for policymakers, planners and researchers, and major findings available by early 1982 from directly assisted WFS surveys in 29 developing countries and contraceptive use data from WFS-type surveys in 16 developed countries. Marital fertility has declined in all developing regions except Africa but still averages from 4.6 children/woman in Latin America to 6.7 in Africa, while preferred family size ranges from 3.0 children in Turkey to 8.9 in Senegal--far above the average 2.2-2.5 children/woman needed to end developing countries' population growth in the long run. However, women ages 15-19 prefer nearly 2 children fewer than the oldest women ages 45-49; 3.8 vs. 5.7 on the average. Nearly 1/2 (48%) of married women surveyed in 27 countreis said they wanted no more children. Preventing all unwanted births would reduce birth rates up to 15 births/1000 population in these countries. Overall, 32% of married, fecund women in developing countries are using contraception compared to an average 72% in 16 developed countries. Education, literacy, and more available family planning services increase contraceptive use. Age at marriage is rising in Asia, but this factor alone has little effect on fertility. Infant mortality is higher in many developing countries than previously thought. Breastfeeding is an important restraint on fertility in most developing countries but is declining among more educated, employed, and urban women which could raise fertility if not compensated for by gains in contraceptive use.

Africa↗
PubMed2003

Understanding the uneven spread of HIV within Africa: comparative study of biologic, behavioral, and contextual factors in rural populations in Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

BACKGROUND: Large differences in the spread of HIV have been observed within sub-Saharan Africa. GOAL: The goal was to identify factors that could explain differences in the spread of HIV within sub-Saharan African populations. STUDY DESIGN: Ecologic comparison of data from population-based surveys in high and relatively low HIV prevalence rural areas in Zimbabwe, Manicaland, and Tanzania, Kisesa. RESULTS: HIV prevalence in Manicaland and Kisesa was 15.4% and 5.3% in men aged 17-44 years and 21.1% and 8.0% in women aged 15-44 years (odds ratios, 3.3 and 3.1, respectively). Marriage is later, spatial mobility more common, cohabitation with marital partners less frequent, education levels are higher, and male circumcision is less common in Manicaland. However, adjustment for differences in these factors increased the odds ratios for HIV infection in Manicaland versus Kisesa to 6.9 and 4.8 for men and women, respectively. Sexually transmitted infection levels were similar, but syphilis was only common in Kisesa. Respondents in Kisesa started sex earlier and reported more sexual partners. Age differences between partners were similar in the 2 locations. CONCLUSION: Substantial differences exist between the contemporary sociodemographic profiles of rural Manicaland and Kisesa. However, these differences did not translate into measurable differences in the biologic or behavioral factors for which data were available and did not explain the much higher HIV prevalence found in Manicaland. These findings might reflect more extensive AIDS-selective mortality and behavior change or greater bias in reporting of sexual behavior in Zimbabwe.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2001

[Co-infections of leishmania/HIV in south Europe].

The Leishmania/HIV co-infection has emerged as a result of the increasing overlap between leishmaniasis (mainly visceral, more rarely cutaneous) and AIDS, which is due to the spread of the AIDS pandemic to rural areas and that of visceral leishmaniasis to suburban areas. Cases of co-infection have so far been reported from 33 countries around the world, most of the cases have been notified in south-western Europe. 1,627 cases have been notified from Spain, France, Italy and Portugal. While Leishmania/HIV co-infection is increasing in eastern Africa, cases of co-infection are expected to diminish in South-western Europe due to the new highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART). In 1998, a world wide WHO/UNAIDS surveillance network was established, which now includes 28 member institutions. In south-western Europe, the surveillance system based on 16 institutions is now well established. The systematic use of standardized and recently computerized case-report forms, the central international registry at WHO headquarters, and finally the use of a geographic information system (GIS) for mapping and monitoring co-infections have improved the overall quality of epidemiological data gathering. All member institutions of the network report to WHO on an annual basis. World wide information is analysed and periodically disseminated through international publications. The GIS integrates epidemiological and demographic data sets and allows for the mapping of co-infection cases down to locality level. The system can be used to easily visualise and analyse the spatial distribution of co-infection cases and to permit monitoring of the evolution of the distribution of the cases over time. The risk of co-infected patients, as carriers of Leishmania in the blood, to be a source of infection for the sandfly, has been recently confirmed. Moreover intravenous drug users also transmit the disease through the sharing of needles.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed2002

The spatial epidemiology of cholera in an endemic area of Bangladesh.

This paper defines high-risk areas of cholera based on environmental risk factors of the disease in an endemic area of Bangladesh. The risk factors include proximity to surface water, high population density, and low educational status, which were identified in an earlier study by the authors. Cholera data were analyzed by spatially referenced extended household units for two time periods, 1983-1987 and 1992-1996. These periods were chosen because they had different dominant cholera agents. From 1983-1987 classical cholera was dominant and from 1992-1996 El Tor was dominant. By defining high-risk areas based on risk factors, this study builds a spatial risk model for cholera. The model is then evaluated based on the locations of observed cholera cases. The study also identifies the determinants of death due to cholera for the two different time periods dominated by the different cholera agents. The modeled risk areas that were based on the risk factors were found to correspond with actual distributions of cholera morbidity and mortality. The high-risk areas of the dominant cholera agents are relatively stable over time. However, from 1983-1987 El Tor cholera, which was not the dominant agent during that period, was not associated with high-risk areas, suggesting that the El Tor habitat may have changed over time. The case fatality rate for cholera was related to proximity to a diarrhea treatment hospital in the study area.

Bangladesh↗
PubMed2004

Effects of land management change on spatial variability of organic matter and nutrients in paddy field: a case study of Pinghu, China.

The Household Responsibility System initiated in the late 1970s in China has brought a profound change to its rural economy. The shift from the collective farming system to individual family farms has changed land management. The change, including fertilization and crop systems, may have significant effects on soil quality and agro-environmental sustainability. However, very little research is being carried out on the impact of reformed land tenure systems on the spatial variability of soil nutrients. In this study, geostatistics was applied to analyze changes in the spatial variability of soil organic matter and nutrients in paddy fields in Pinghu County, China after 20 years of land management change. In 1984 and 2002, 617 and 131 locations were selected, respectively, for collecting surface soil samples to analyze soil organic matter (SOM), total nitrogen (TN), available phosphorus (AP), and available potassium (AK). From 1984 to 2002, variability of the SOM and TN changed from strongly to moderately spatial-dependent, and the variability of AP remained weakly dependent on space, but that of the AK changed from moderately to weakly spatial-dependent. That the trend of the variability of four soil properties in 2002 became weaker than that in 1984 showed that the extrinsic factors (soil management practices, such as fertilization) weakened the effect by intrinsic factors (soil formation factors, such as soil parent materials) owing to a long period of land management change. The temporal geographic maps of the SOM and nutrients spatial distributions suggested that the concentrations of the SOM and nutrients had been changed to different extents during the period. Significant increase in AP and decrease in AK were noted. The changes were likely due to the imbalance between N, P, and K fertilizers and increased grain yield.

Agriculture↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[The descriptive epidemiology of suicide in Tuscany, 1988-2002].

AIMS: To describe the epidemiology of Suicide in Tuscany according to the triad of time, place and person. METHODS: The 4,764 cases of suicide, defined according to categories E950-E959 of ICD-9 in Tuscany over the period 1988-2002, were obtained from the Tuscan Mortality Register. Mortality indicators were calculated and analyzed. The spatial analysis was carried out by deriving Empirical Bayes Estimates for the 287 municipalities. RESULTS: The crude mortality rate in the 2000-2002 is 7.8 per 100000 population (male: 12.4; female: 3.5). The age-standardized rate in the 2000-2002 is 5.8 per 100,000 population (male: 9.6; female: 2.6). The highest risk for suicide, especially in the case of males, are concentrated in the southern hinterland Tuscany, in a cluster of rural municipalities that represent the old mining district of Tuscany. The SMRs according to residential municipality (population per square kilometre), confirm a greater risk of suicide for males residing in rural communities. CONCLUSIONS: The cluster of excessive mortality from suicide in Southern Tuscany could be the consequence of social determinants, related to the urban and social crisis following agriculture decline and mine closure.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMedDate not supplied

[Visceral leishmaniasis in Ordubad District, Nakhichevan ASSR].

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) focus in the Ordubad District of the Nakhichevan ASSR has become active for the last years. Complex study of the focus, performed in 1985-1987, allowed to establish the following: VL causative agent, circulating in the Ordubad District belongs to the Leishmania infantum species. It was identified by isoenzymatic analysis (for 12 enzymes) and the Adler serological test. Disease cases prevailed in the upper part of the town of Ordubad and were confined to a small area (4 adjoining streets). Little children (up to 2 years old) prevail among patients. Spatial distribution of the disease correlated with indirect EIA data on healthy urban population (3116 persons examined) and stray dogs (152 animals examined). Mean percentage of positive assay results for the titers ranging from 1:80 to 1:20 was 8.0, for human population of Ordubad, and 19.1 for the dogs. Ten Phlebotominae species were found in Ordubad and its suburbs: Phlebotomus (Laroussius) major, Ph. (L.) kandelakii, Ph. (Adlerius) halepensis, Ph. (A.) balcanicus, Ph. (Phlebotomus) papatasi, Ph. (Paraphlebotomus) sergentii, Ph. (Par.) caucasicus, Ph. (Par.) alexandri, Sergentomyia dentata, S. palestinensis. Authors suggest that stray dogs are reservoirs of infectious agents in the Ordubad focus, while Phlebotominae of the Laroussius and Adlerius subspecies are disease carriers, the disease being regarded as a Mediterranean form of visceral leishmaniasis.

Age Factors↗
PubMed2004

Spatial clustering of malaria and associated risk factors during an epidemic in a highland area of western Kenya.

The epidemiology of malaria over small areas remains poorly understood, and this is particularly true for malaria during epidemics in highland areas of Africa, where transmission intensity is low and characterized by acute within and between year variations. We report an analysis of the spatial distribution of clinical malaria during an epidemic and investigate putative risk factors. Active case surveillance was undertaken in three schools in Nandi District, Western Kenya for 10 weeks during a malaria outbreak in May-July 2002. Household surveys of cases and age-matched controls were conducted to collect information on household construction, exposure factors and socio-economic status. Household geographical location and altitude were determined using a hand-held geographical positioning system and landcover types were determined using high spatial resolution satellite sensor data. Among 129 cases identified during the surveillance, which were matched to 155 controls, we identified significant spatial clusters of malaria cases as determined using the spatial scan statistic. Conditional multiple logistic regression analysis showed that the risk of malaria was higher in children who were underweight, who lived at lower altitudes, and who lived in households where drugs were not kept at home.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Projecting rates of urbanisation in England, 1991-2016: method, policy application and results.

"The rate of conversion of land from rural to urban uses has been a central concern of the British planning system. Despite this interest, however, the factual basis of the debate on the pace of urban growth, its form and distribution has been extremely weak. The reason for this is lack of appropriate data. This paper reports research on two new data sources on land use--a digital database of the boundaries of tracts of urban land in 1981 and 1991 and the Land Use Change Statistics--to analyse recent urban growth in England and, in conjunction with current household projections, to estimate the likely extent of urbanisation in 2016. In addition to assessing the geographical distribution of this growth, the paper draws out some implications for policy analysis of the method of projecting the extent of land in urban use."

Agriculture↗
PubMed2004

Effects of changing forest and impervious land covers on discharge characteristics of watersheds.

Effects of changing patterns of forest and impervious land covers on hydrologic regimes of watersheds were evaluated for urban and rural areas of the lower Cedar River drainage near Seattle, Washington. Land cover characterizations were used in a spatially explicit hydrology model to assess effects of land covers on watershed hydrology during presettlement conditions ("full forest cover"), 1991 and 1998. For the presettlement to 1991 period, urban watersheds showed decreases in forest covers (range 63% to 83%) and increases in impervious surfaces (range 43% to 71%). Rural watersheds showed similar patterns but smaller changes, with forest covers decreasing (range 28% to 34%) and impervious surfaces increasing (range 8% to 15%). For the 1991 and 1998 period, changes in forest covers for urban and rural watershed were <24%, with losses in some watersheds and regeneration in others. Impervious surfaces continued to increase, but increases were larger in rural (range 38% to 60%) than in urban watersheds (range 4% to 27%). Flood-frequency curves indicated that discharge rates (m sec(-1)) for all watersheds were higher in 1991 and 1998 than historical and suggested that chances for floods increase because of changing land covers. The largest increases in discharge rates were in urban watersheds, with rates for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals being more than two times greater than the rate during historical conditions. Changes in flow regimes were indicated by presettlement discharge levels of less frequent recurrence intervals (10-year and 25-year) occurring in posturbanization times (1991 and 1998) during more frequent intervals (2-year and 10-year). Normalized flows (m yr(-1)) of watersheds for 2-year, 10-year, and 25-year recurrence intervals indicate how flow regimes in 1991 and 1998 can change as functions of different areas of land covers. During 1991 and 1998, abrupt increases in flows occurred when forest covers were low (range 17% to 37%) and impervious surfaces were >46%. In contrast, the lowest flows occurred when forest covers were most extensive (range 59% to 81%) and impervious surfaces were <23%. We conclude that our use of spatial characterizations of impervious surfaces and forested covers in a spatially explicit hydrology model provides a robust approach for revealing how variations in different types and spatial distributions of land covers can affect flood regimes and flows of different watersheds.

Cities↗
PubMed1989

[Pesticides and cancer in a Quebec rural farming population: a geographical interpretation].

Data on the use of pesticides in agriculture and three types of cancer among the rural farm population were compiled for 34 drainage basins of the province of Québec for 1982 and 1983. The basins were divided following three categories of exposure (low, intermediate, high) on the basis of the level of pesticides sales. Results at the scale of the three categories show that among women living in rural farm areas, the relative risk (RR) for cancers of the lymphatic tissues is of 1.62 when highly exposed basins were compared to low exposed basins (95% Confidence Interval = 1.16; 2.25), and of 1.63 (95% CI = 1.08; 2.45) when they were compared to basins with intermediate exposure. For women of 35-64 age group, RR values are respectively of 3.15 (95% CI = 1.67; 5.93) in the first case, and 3.73 (95% CI = 1.54; 9.01) in the second case. By another way, at the level of the 34 drainage basins, correlation analysis have shown statistically significant positive associations between several variables representing pesticides utilization in agriculture and geographic variations of some cancers, according to sex and age groups, especially for the following: men, cancer of the brain (1-14 and 15-34 age groups), cancers of the lymphatic tissues (34-64) and leukaemia (1-14); for women, cancer of the brain (35-64), the lymphatic tissues (35-64, 65 and more, all ages) and leukaemia (15-34, 35-64, 65 and more and all ages). After that, principal components analysis has been performed using variables representing pesticides utilization and socio-economic status by basin. Height factors have been produced, including two socio-economic and six pesticides-factors. Factor scores have been introduced in multiple regression analysis to see the role of each factor in the explanation of spatial distribution of those cancers who had been identified in the correlation analysis before. Results have shown that in most of the cases, only pesticides-factors have significant relationship with those cancers. Socio-economic factors play a significant role only for the following cancers: men, lymphatic tissues, 65 years old and more; women, cancer of the brain all ages, leukaemia 1-14 and 65 years old and more. However, these results must be interpreted with caution for the goal of the study is to describe potential relationships.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adolescent↗
PubMed2005

[Characteristic study on village landscape patterns in Sichuan Basin hilly region based on high resolution IKONOS remote sensing].

To realize the landscape programming of agro-ecosystem management, landscape-stratification can provide us the best understanding of landscape ecosystem at very detailed scales. For this purpose, the village landscapes in densely populated Jintang and Jianyang Counties of Sichuan Basin hilly region were mapped from high resolution (1 m) IKONOS satellite imagery by using a standardized 4 level ecological landscape classification and mapping system in a regionally-representative sample of five 500 x 500 m2 landscape quadrats (sample plots). Based on these maps, the spatial patterns were analyzed by landscape indicators, which demonstrated a large variety of landscape types or ecotopes across the village landscape of this region, with diversity indexes ranging from 1.08 to 2.26 at different levels of the landscape classification system. The richness indices ranged from 42.2% to 58.6 %, except that for the landcover at 85 %. About 12.5 % of the ecotopes were distributed in the same way in each landscape sample, and the remaining 87.5% were distributed differently. The landscape fragmentation indices varied from 2.93 to 4.27 across sample plots, and from 2.86 to 5.63 across classification levels. The population density and the road and hamlet areas had strong linear correlations with some landscape indicators, and especially, the correlation coefficients of hamlet areas with fractal indexes and fragmental dimensions were 0.957* and 0.991**, respectively. The differences in most landscape pattern indices across sample plots and landscape classes were statistically significant, indicating that cross-scale mapping and classification of village landscapes could provide more detailed information on landscape patterns than those from a single level of classification.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1997

Aggregation of childhood leukemia in geographic areas of Greece.

A total of 872 children aged up to 14 years, who were diagnosed with leukemia in Greece during the decade 1980-89, were allocated by place of residence to the 601 administrative districts of the country. Evaluation of spatial clustering was done using the Potthoff-Whittinghill method, which validly assesses heterogeneity of leukemia risk among districts with variable expected numbers of cases. There was highly significant evidence for spatial clustering occurring particularly among children living in urban and, to a lesser extent, semi-urban areas. The evidence was stronger for children younger than 10 years old, applied also to children in different five-year age groups, and persisted when cases of acute lymphoblastic leukemia were analyzed separately. These findings provide support to the hypothesis that localized environmental exposures could contribute to the etiology of childhood leukemia, but they cannot distinguish between exposures of physical or chemical nature, nor can they exclude socially conditioned patterns of exposure to infectious agents.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1997

Explaining hierarchical and interprovincial migrations of Chinese young adults by personal factors and place attributes: a nested logit analysis.

"This paper uses a two-level nested logit model to explain the inter-stratum (city, town and rural county) and interprovincial migration behaviors of the young adults (aged 17-29) in China during a three-year period (1985-87), based on the micro data of the 1987 National Population Survey. The migration propensity of each person is represented by a departure probability and a destination choice probability. These probabilities are then expressed as functions of personal factors and place attributes. The main findings are that personal factors are of paramount importance in explaining the departure behaviors, and that both departure and destination behaviors responded to market forces in a sensible way, despite government control on territorial movements."

Asia↗
PubMed2003

Distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the atmosphere of Hong Kong.

This paper reports the monitoring results of eleven polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), four to six-ring, at two urban sites-Central & Western (CW) and Tsuen Wan (TW) in Hong Kong from January to December 2000; and the findings of a study conducted in 2001 of the partitioning of the gaseous and particulate phases of PAHs. The sum of the eleven PAHs under study (sigmaPAHs) was found to range from 6.46 to 38.8 ng m(-3). The annual mean levels at 12.2 ng m(-3) and 15.8 ng m(-3) for CW and TW respectively are comparable to those recorded for the previous two years and are also within the reported ranges for other metropolitan cities in the Asia Pacific region. Amongst the selected eleven PAHs, fluoranthene and pyrene were the two most abundant found in the urban atmosphere of Hong Kong during the study period accounting for approximately 80%, of the total PAHs. The ratios of benzo(a)pyrene to benzo(g,h,i)perylene (BaP/BghiP) and indeno(1,2,3-cd)pyrene to benzo(g,h,i)perylene (IDP/BghiP) indicate that diesel and gasoline vehicular exhausts were the predominant local emission sources of PAHs. Seasonal variations with high winter to summer ratios for each of the individual PAHs (CW: 1.6-16.7 and TW: 0.82-8.2) and for sigmaPAHs (CW: 1.9 and TW: 1.8) and a spatial variation of BaP amongst the air monitoring stations are noted. Results of correlation studies illustrate that local meteorological conditions such as ambient temperature, solar radiation, wind speed and wind direction have significant impact on the concentrations of atmospheric PAHs accounting for the observed seasonal variations. A snapshot comparison of the concentrations of PAHs at four sites including a roadside site, a rural site and the two regular urban sites CW and TW was also performed using the profiles of PAHs recorded on two particulate episode days in March 2000.

Air Pollutants↗