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PubMed2005

Uncertainties and constraints on breaching and their implications for flood loss estimation.

Around the coasts of the southern North Sea, flood risk is mediated everywhere by the performance of natural and man-made flood defences. Under the conditions of extreme surge with tide water levels, the performance of the defences determines the extent of inland flooding. Sensitivity tests reveal the enormous increase in the volume of water that can pass through a defence once breaching is initiated, with a 1m reduction in sill elevation doubling the loss. Empirical observations of defence performance in major storm surges around the North Sea reveal some of the principal controls on breaching. For the same defence type, the maximum size and depth of a breach is a function of the integral of the hydraulic gradient across the defence, which is in turn determined by the elevation of the floodplain and the degree to which water can continue to flow inland away from the breach. The most extensive and lowest floodplains thereby "generate" the largest breaches. For surges that approach the crest height, the weaker the protection of the defence, the greater the number of breaches. Defence reinforcement reduces both the number and size of the breaches.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2005

Windstorm and storm surges in Europe: loss trends and possible counter-actions from the viewpoint of an international reinsurer.

Windstorm disasters (including storm surges) account for about one-third of all natural disasters throughout the world (by number, fatalities and economic losses), but for more than two-thirds of the corresponding insured losses. Trend analyses reveal that major windstorm disasters and the losses generated by them have increased drastically in recent decades. Risk partnership between the state, the affected population and the insurance industry assumes a key role with regard to the windstorm hazard. Scientists, engineers and insurers must work together in formulating their requirements and shaping them in such a way that politicians can derive clearly recognizable policy options (e.g. land-use, restrictions, design-code adjustments) from them. Another important aspect is stepping up the efforts being made towards curbing climate change, which will, otherwise, exacerbate the risk in the future.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2005

Operational storm surge forecasting in the Netherlands: developments in the last decade.

The accurate forecasting of storm surges is an important issue in the Netherlands. With the emergence of the first numerical hydrodynamic models for surge forecasting at the beginning of the 1980s, new demands and possibilities were raised. This article describes the main phases of the development and the present operational set-up of the Dutch continental shelf model, which is the main hydrodynamic model for storm surges in the Netherlands. It includes a brief discussion of applied data-assimilation techniques, such as Kalman filtering, the model calibration process and some thoughts on quality assurance in an operational environment. After further describing some select recent investigations, the paper concludes with some remarks on future developments in a European context.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2006

Extreme natural hazards: population growth, globalization and environmental change.

Mankind is becoming ever more susceptible to natural disasters, largely as a consequence of population growth and globalization. It is likely that in the future, we will experience several disasters per year that kill more than 10,000 people. A calamity with a million casualties is just a matter of time. This situation is mainly a consequence of increased vulnerability. Climate change may also be affecting the frequency of extreme weather events as well as the vulnerability of coastal areas due to sea-level rise. Disastrous outcomes can only increase unless better ways are found to mitigate the effects through improved forecasting and warning, together with more community preparedness and resilience. There are particular difficulties with extreme events, which can affect several countries, while the largest events can have global consequences. The hazards of supervolcanic eruptions and asteroid impacts could cause global disaster with threats to civilization and deaths of billions of people. Although these are very rare events, they will happen and require consideration. More frequent and smaller events in the wrong place at the wrong time could have very large human, environmental and economic effects. A sustained effort is needed to identify places at risk and take steps to apply science before the events occur.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Global risk from extreme geophysical events: threat identification and assessment.

In an increasingly interconnected world, any single geophysical hazard is capable of having consequences far beyond the range of immediate physical effects. Most recently, this was demonstrated by the 2004 Asian tsunami, which took the lives of citizens from 57 different nations, and by Hurricane Katrina in August 2005, which raised fuel prices worldwide and contributed to a record UK trade deficit in the month following the devastation of New Orleans. On an altogether wider scale, global geophysical events (GGEs) are natural phenomena capable of having wholesale deleterious consequences for the world's environment, economy and society. These may arise (i) due to a global physical effect, such as an episode of severe planetary cooling in response to a volcanic 'super-eruption' or large comet or asteroid impact, or (ii) as a result of subsidiary ramifications for the global economy and social fabric of a cataclysmic regional event, such as an Atlantic- or Pacific-wide 'mega-tsunami', or a more spatially confined event at a strategically sensitive location, for example the awaited major Tokyo earthquake. While very infrequent, the wide-ranging-and potentially ruinous-consequences of a GGE for the well-being of the international community make it essential that they are seriously considered within any comprehensive assessment of natural threats.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Fatal attraction: living with earthquakes, the growth of villages into megacities, and earthquake vulnerability in the modern world.

The great earthquake belt which stretches from the Mediterranean through the Middle East into Central Asia results from the ongoing collision between the Eurasian plate and the African, Arabian and Indian plates to the south. Through much of this belt, the topography is created and controlled by fault movement in earthquakes. Many habitations are located at the foot of the fault-controlled mountain range-fronts that bound inhospitable deserts or elevated plateaus, in positions that are favourable for trade-routes, strategic control of access or for water supply. As a result, they are vulnerable to earthquakes, which often seem to have targeted population centres precisely. For many centuries, an uneasy accommodation was reached between human needs and the earthquake-controlled landscape, sometimes brilliantly exploited by local hydrological engineering, as in Iran. Occasional earthquakes would occur, killing a shocking proportion of the population, but the populations of the settlements themselves would be relatively small. Many once-small rural communities have now grown into towns, cities or megacities, while retaining their vulnerability through poor building standards. Earthquakes that occur in these places today now kill many more than they did in the past, as we have witnessed in the last few years. Extreme catastrophes have been rare only because the exposure of modern megacities to earthquake hazards has been relatively short (approx. 50 years); an increase in the number of such catastrophes now seems to be inevitable.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Lessons from the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake.

The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake (M(w) = 9.0-9.3) is one of the greatest earthquakes ever recorded. In terms of its physical size, it is comparable to the 1960 Chilean (M(w) = 9.5) and the 1965 Alaskan (M(w) = 9.2) earthquakes. However, the damage caused by this earthquake is far greater than that caused by other great earthquakes. The 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake has been studied in great detail over broad time-scales, from a fraction of seconds to hours and months, using the modern seismic data available from global seismic networks and the Global Positioning System data. We summarize the findings obtained mainly from seismic data, and discuss the unique feature of this earthquake, and possible directions of research to minimize the impact of great earthquakes on our society.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Sumatran megathrust earthquakes: from science to saving lives.

Most of the loss of life, property and well-being stemming from the great Sumatran earthquake and tsunami of 2004 could have been avoided and losses from similar future events can be largely prevented. However, achieving this goal requires forging a chain linking basic science-the study of why, when and where these events occur-to people's everyday lives. The intermediate links in this chain are emergency response preparedness, warning capability, education and infrastructural changes. In this article, I first describe our research on the Sumatran subduction zone. This research has allowed us to understand the basis of the earthquake cycle on the Sumatran megathrust and to reconstruct the sequence of great earthquakes that have occurred there in historic and prehistoric times. On the basis of our findings, we expect that one or two more great earthquakes and tsunamis, nearly as devastating as the 2004 event, are to be expected within the next few decades in a region of coastal Sumatra to the south of the zone affected in 2004. I go on to argue that preventing future tragedies does not necessarily involve hugely expensive or high-tech solutions such as the construction of coastal defences or sensor-based tsunami warning systems. More valuable and practical steps include extending the scientific research, educating the at-risk populations as to what to do in the event of a long-lasting earthquake (i.e. one that might be followed by a tsunami), taking simple measures to strengthen buildings against shaking, providing adequate escape routes and helping the residents of the vulnerable low-lying coastal strips to relocate their homes and businesses to land that is higher or farther from the coast. Such steps could save hundreds and thousands of lives in the coastal cities and offshore islands of western Sumatra, and have general applicability to strategies for helping the developing nations to deal with natural hazards.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

A new probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for greater Tokyo.

Tokyo and its outlying cities are home to one-quarter of Japan's 127 million people. Highly destructive earthquakes struck the capital in 1703, 1855 and 1923, the last of which took 105,000 lives. Fuelled by greater Tokyo's rich seismological record, but challenged by its magnificent complexity, our joint Japanese-US group carried out a new study of the capital's earthquake hazards. We used the prehistoric record of great earthquakes preserved by uplifted marine terraces and tsunami deposits (17 M approximately 8 shocks in the past 7000 years), a newly digitized dataset of historical shaking (10000 observations in the past 400 years), the dense modern seismic network (300,000 earthquakes in the past 30 years), and Japan's GeoNet array (150 GPS vectors in the past 10 years) to reinterpret the tectonic structure, identify active faults and their slip rates and estimate their earthquake frequency. We propose that a dislodged fragment of the Pacific plate is jammed between the Pacific, Philippine Sea and Eurasian plates beneath the Kanto plain on which Tokyo sits. We suggest that the Kanto fragment controls much of Tokyo's seismic behaviour for large earthquakes, including the damaging 1855 M approximately 7.3 Ansei-Edo shock. On the basis of the frequency of earthquakes beneath greater Tokyo, events with magnitude and location similar to the M approximately 7.3 Ansei-Edo event have a ca 20% likelihood in an average 30 year period. In contrast, our renewal (time-dependent) probability for the great M > or = 7.9 plate boundary shocks such as struck in 1923 and 1703 is 0.5% for the next 30 years, with a time-averaged 30 year probability of ca 10%. The resulting net likelihood for severe shaking (ca 0.9 g peak ground acceleration (PGA)) in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama for the next 30 years is ca 30%. The long historical record in Kanto also affords a rare opportunity to calculate the probability of shaking in an alternative manner exclusively from intensity observations. This approach permits robust estimates for the spatial distribution of expected shaking, even for sites with few observations. The resulting probability of severe shaking is ca 35% in Tokyo, Kawasaki and Yokohama and ca 10% in Chiba for an average 30 year period, in good agreement with our independent estimate, and thus bolstering our view that Tokyo's hazard looms large. Given 1 trillion US dollars estimates for the cost of an M approximately 7.3 shock beneath Tokyo, our probability implies a 13 billion US dollars annual probable loss.

Cities↗
PubMed2006

Tsunami: scientific frontiers, mitigation, forecasting and policy implications.

Tsunamis are an ever-present threat to lives and property along the coasts of most of the world's oceans. As the Sumatra tsunami of 26 December 2004 reminded the world, we must be more proactive in developing ways to reduce their impact on our global society. This article provides an overview of the state of knowledge of tsunamis, presents some challenges confronting advances in the field and identifies some promising frontiers leading to a global warning system. This overview is then used to develop guidelines for advancing the science of forecasting, hazard mitigation programmes and the development of public policy to realize a global system. Much of the information on mitigation and forecasting draws upon the development and accomplishments of a joint state/federal partnership that was forged to reduce tsunami hazards along US coastlines-the National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Programme. By integrating hazard assessment, warning guidance and mitigation activities, the programme has created a roadmap and a set of tools to make communities more resilient to local and distant tsunamis. Among the tools are forecasting, educational programmes, early warning systems and design guidance for tsunami-resilient communities. Information on international cooperation is drawn from the Global Earth Observing System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOSS provides an international framework to assure international compatibility and interoperability for rapid exchange of data and information.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2006

Submarine landslides: processes, triggers and hazard prediction.

Huge landslides, mobilizing hundreds to thousands of km(3) of sediment and rock are ubiquitous in submarine settings ranging from the steepest volcanic island slopes to the gentlest muddy slopes of submarine deltas. Here, we summarize current knowledge of such landslides and the problems of assessing their hazard potential. The major hazards related to submarine landslides include destruction of seabed infrastructure, collapse of coastal areas into the sea and landslide-generated tsunamis. Most submarine slopes are inherently stable. Elevated pore pressures (leading to decreased frictional resistance to sliding) and specific weak layers within stratified sequences appear to be the key factors influencing landslide occurrence. Elevated pore pressures can result from normal depositional processes or from transient processes such as earthquake shaking; historical evidence suggests that the majority of large submarine landslides are triggered by earthquakes. Because of their tsunamigenic potential, ocean-island flank collapses and rockslides in fjords have been identified as the most dangerous of all landslide related hazards. Published models of ocean-island landslides mainly examine 'worst-case scenarios' that have a low probability of occurrence. Areas prone to submarine landsliding are relatively easy to identify, but we are still some way from being able to forecast individual events with precision. Monitoring of critical areas where landslides might be imminent and modelling landslide consequences so that appropriate mitigation strategies can be developed would appear to be areas where advances on current practice are possible.

Computer Simulation↗
PubMed2006

Asteroid and comet impacts: the ultimate environmental catastrophe.

Cosmic impacts represent the most extreme class of natural hazards, combining a very low probability of occurrence with a capability of killing hundreds of millions and destabilizing global civilization. Fortunately, these disasters are amenable to precise prediction and even (in principle) can be avoided entirely by appropriate application of space technology. However, impacts take place so rarely that they have only recently been recognized as a significant natural hazard. Concerted international action to deal with impacts depends on increased public awareness.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Monitoring super-volcanoes: geophysical and geochemical signals at Yellowstone and other large caldera systems.

Earth's largest calderas form as the ground collapses during immense volcanic eruptions, when hundreds to thousands of cubic kilometres of magma are explosively withdrawn from the Earth's crust over a period of days to weeks. Continuing long after such great eruptions, the resulting calderas often exhibit pronounced unrest, with frequent earthquakes, alternating uplift and subsidence of the ground, and considerable heat and mass flux. Because many active and extinct calderas show evidence for repetition of large eruptions, such systems demand detailed scientific study and monitoring. Two calderas in North America, Yellowstone (Wyoming) and Long Valley (California), are in areas of youthful tectonic complexity. Scientists strive to understand the signals generated when tectonic, volcanic and hydrothermal (hot ground water) processes intersect. One obstacle to accurate forecasting of large volcanic events is humanity's lack of familiarity with the signals leading up to the largest class of volcanic eruptions. Accordingly, it may be difficult to recognize the difference between smaller and larger eruptions. To prepare ourselves and society, scientists must scrutinize a spectrum of volcanic signals and assess the many factors contributing to unrest and toward diverse modes of eruption.

Chemistry↗
PubMed2006

The effects and consequences of very large explosive volcanic eruptions.

Every now and again Earth experiences tremendous explosive volcanic eruptions, considerably bigger than the largest witnessed in historic times. Those yielding more than 450km3 of magma have been called super-eruptions. The record of such eruptions is incomplete; the most recent known example occurred 26000 years ago. It is more likely that the Earth will next experience a super-eruption than an impact from a large meteorite greater than 1km in diameter. Depending on where the volcano is located, the effects will be felt globally or at least by a whole hemisphere. Large areas will be devastated by pyroclastic flow deposits, and the more widely dispersed ash falls will be laid down over continent-sized areas. The most widespread effects will be derived from volcanic gases, sulphur gases being particularly important. This gas is converted into sulphuric acid aerosols in the stratosphere and layers of aerosol can cover the global atmosphere within a few weeks to months. These remain for several years and affect atmospheric circulation causing surface temperature to fall in many regions. Effects include temporary reductions in light levels and severe and unseasonable weather (including cool summers and colder-than-normal winters). Some aspects of the understanding and prediction of super-eruptions are problematic because they are well outside modern experience. Our global society is now very different to that affected by past, modest-sized volcanic activity and is highly vulnerable to catastrophic damage of infrastructure by natural disasters. Major disruption of services that society depends upon can be expected for periods of months to, perhaps, years after the next very large explosive eruption and the cost to global financial markets will be high and sustained.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Hurricane Katrina: an environmental perspective.

On 29 August 2005, Hurricane Katrina hit the Gulf Coast of the USA to become one of the worst natural disasters in the country's history. The forecasts and official warnings of the event issued by the US National Hurricane Center up to 60 h ahead were excellent and largely based on an 'ensemble' of model and statistical guidance. The Met Office Global Model is highlighted as one of the best performers for Hurricane Katrina. The active 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has fuelled the debate on the impact of climate change on tropical cyclones. Some recent publications have suggested that this impact is already apparent, while others are more cautious. Inconsistencies remain among many of the theoretical, modelling and observational studies. Despite the excellent warnings, there was a tragic loss of life as a result of Hurricane Katrina which has led to political questions concerning complex socio-economic issues, the state of flood defences and how to coordinate the reaction to and mitigate the impact of such monumental natural hazards.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Extreme events due to human-induced climate change.

A recent assessment by the intergovernmental panel on climate change concluded that the Earth's climate would be 2-6 degrees C warmer than in the pre-industrial era by the end of the twenty-first century, due to human-induced increases in greenhouse gases. In the absence of other changes, this would lead to the warmest period on Earth for at least the last 1000 years, and probably the last 100,000 years. The large-scale warming is expected to be accompanied by increased frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, storms and coastal flooding. There are also several possibilities that this large change could initiate nonlinear climate responses which lead to even more extreme and rapid (on the time-scale of decades) climate change, including the collapse of the ocean 'conveyor belt' circulation, the collapse of major ice sheets or the release of large amounts of methane in high latitudes leading to further global warming. Although these catastrophic events are much more speculative than the direct warming due to increased greenhouse gases, their potential impacts are great and therefore should be included in any risk assessment of the impacts of anthropogenic climate change.

Climate↗
PubMed2006

Natural disasters and the challenge of extreme events: risk management from an insurance perspective.

Loss statistics for natural disasters demonstrate, also after correction for inflation, a dramatic increase of the loss burden since 1950. This increase is driven by a concentration of population and values in urban areas, the development of highly exposed coastal and valley regions, the complexity of modern societies and technologies and probably, also by the beginning consequences of global warming. This process will continue unless remedial action will be taken. Managing the risk from natural disasters starts with identification of the hazards. The next step is the evaluation of the risk, where risk is a function of hazard, exposed values or human lives and the vulnerability of the exposed objects. Probabilistic computer models have been developed for the proper assessment of risks since the late 1980s. The final steps are controlling and financing future losses. Natural disaster insurance plays a key role in this context, but also private parties and governments have to share a part of the risk. A main responsibility of governments is to formulate regulations for building construction and land use. The insurance sector and the state have to act together in order to create incentives for building and business owners to take loss prevention measures. A further challenge for the insurance sector is to transfer a portion of the risk to the capital markets, and to serve better the needs of the poor. Catastrophe bonds and microinsurance are the answer to such challenges. The mechanisms described above have been developed to cope with well-known disasters like earthquakes, windstorms and floods. They can be applied, in principle, also to less well investigated and less frequent extreme disasters: submarine slides, great volcanic eruptions, meteorite impacts and tsunamis which may arise from all these hazards. But there is an urgent need to improve the state of knowledge on these more exotic hazards in order to reduce the high uncertainty in actual risk evaluation to an acceptable level. Due to the rarity of such extreme events, specific risk prevention measures are hardly justified with exception of attempts to divert earth-orbit crossing meteorites from their dangerous path. For the industry it is particularly important to achieve full transparency as regards covered and non-covered risks and to define in a systematic manner the limits of insurability for super-disasters.

Disaster Planning↗
PubMed2006

Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

Disaster Planning↗