Search PubMed⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search PubMed

Results for “Population Projection”

Search indexed PubMed citations on genomics, clinical trials, systematic reviews and public health. Explore titles, authors and supplied subject terms, then open the PubMed record.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
PubMed1996

Projections of intrinsic cardiac neurons to different targets in the guinea-pig heart.

We set out to determine the projections of the major immunohistochemically-defined populations of intrinsic cardiac neurons to different target tissues within the guinea-pig heart. Ultrastructural studies, and immunoreactivity to the neuronal marker, neuron-specific enolase, suggested that the number of axons of intrinsic neurons in most regions of the heart was low when compared with the populations of axons projecting from extrinsic sensory and sympathetic ganglia. Multiple-labelling immunofluorescence was used to demonstrate the terminals of the major populations of peptide-containing intrinsic neurons. The intrinsic nature of peptide-containing axons was confirmed by long-term organotypic culture of cardiac tissue, which resulted in degeneration of axons of extrinsic neurons. The relative density and peptide content of intrinsic axons throughout the heart was not consistent with the relative proportions of peptide-containing intracardiac nerve cell bodies observed previously. The most commonly-encountered axons contained immunoreactivity (IR) to vasoactive intestinal peptide (VIP) alone, although nerve cell bodies with VIP constituted less than 5% of the total population of intrinsic neurons. Populations of axons containing IR to somatostatin alone, somatostatin and substance P, neuropeptide Y (NPY) alone, somatostatin and NPY, or VIP and NPY, also were observed. Intrinsic axons containing substance P-IR were very rare, much more so than would be predicted from the peptide content of intrinsic nerve cell bodies. The regions of the heart with the most dense innervation by axons of intrinsic neurons were the cardiac valves, the atrio-ventricular node and the sino-atrial node. Each of these targets was innervated by several populations of peptide-containing axons. Thus, each population of peptide-containing intrinsic neurons projected to a variety of target tissues within the heart. One possible interpretation of these results is that immunohistochemically-distinct populations of intrinsic neurons belong to different functional classes of neurons (sensory neurons, interneurons, final motor neurons), each of which innervates many regions of the heart.

Animals↗
PubMed2005

Effect on trend estimates of the difference between survey respondents and non-respondents: results from 27 populations in the WHO MONICA Project.

INTRODUCTION: In the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA (multinational MONItoring of trends and determinants in CArdiovascular disease) Project considerable effort was made to obtain basic data on non-respondents to community based surveys of cardiovascular risk factors. The first purpose of this paper is to examine differences in socio-economic and health profiles among respondents and non-respondents. The second purpose is to investigate the effect of non-response on estimates of trends. METHODS: Socio-economic and health profile between respondents and non-respondents in the WHO MONICA Project final survey were compared. The potential effect of non-response on the trend estimates between the initial survey and final survey approximately ten years later was investigated using both MONICA data and hypothetical data. RESULTS: In most of the populations, non-respondents were more likely to be single, less well educated, and had poorer lifestyles and health profiles than respondents. As an example of the consequences, temporal trends in prevalence of daily smokers are shown to be overestimated in most populations if they were based only on data from respondents. CONCLUSIONS: The socio-economic and health profiles of respondents and non-respondents differed fairly consistently across 27 populations. Hence, the estimators of population trends based on respondent data are likely to be biased. Declining response rates therefore pose a threat to the accuracy of estimates of risk factor trends in many countries.

Bias↗
PubMed1993

Identification and characterization of populations living near high-voltage transmission lines: a pilot study.

Populations living close to high-voltage transmission lines often have residential magnetic field exposures in excess of 1 microT, and sometimes over 2 microT. Yet, populations studied in most epidemiologic investigations of the association between residential magnetic field exposure and cancer typically have exposures below 1 microT and frequently below 0.5 microT. To improve statistical power and precision, it would be useful to compare high exposure populations with low exposure populations rather than only studying small differences within low exposure populations. Toward this end, we have developed an automated method for identifying populations living near high-voltage transmission lines. These populations likely have more highly exposed individuals than the population at large. The method uses a geographic information system (GIS) to superimpose digitized transmission line locations on U.S. Census block location data and then extract relevant demographic data. Analysis of data from a pilot study of the populations residing within 100 m of a 29-km segment of one 230-kV line in New Jersey shows that when compared to populations in the surrounding census blocks farther than 100 m from this line, those populations close to the line have similar demographics but differ in terms of perceived housing value variables. We believe that the approach we have developed will enable investigators to rapidly identify and characterize populations living near high-voltage transmission lines on a statewide basis for considering the impact of exposures and for public policy and that these populations also can be used for epidemiologic study.

Demography↗
PubMed1990

Projections of AIDS morbidity and mortality in San Francisco.

To develop a model for predicting acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) morbidity in San Francisco, Calif, through June 1993, we combined annual human immunodeficiency virus seroconversion rates for homosexual and bisexual men and for heterosexual intravenous drug users with estimates of the cumulative proportion of the population with AIDS by duration of human immunodeficiency virus infection and with estimates of the size of the at-risk populations. We projected AIDS mortality by applying Kaplan-Meier estimates of survival time following diagnosis to the projected number of cases. The median incubation period for AIDS among homosexual and bisexual men infected with the human immunodeficiency virus was estimated to be 11.0 years (mean, 11.8 years; 95% confidence interval, 10.6 to 13.0 years). The model projects 12,349 to 17,022 cumulative cases of AIDS in San Francisco through June 1993, with 9,966 to 12,767 cumulative deaths.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1990

The exponential multidimensional demographic projection model.

"This paper presents the multidimensional demographic projection on the basis of an exponential specification, which avoids the problems associated with the widely used specification on the basis of the linear integration hypothesis. It generalizes earlier work by Gill (1986) on Markov models for closed populations to include the case of open populations. A numerical illustration is also provided." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Forecasting↗
PubMed2006

Impact of the population at risk of diabetes on projections of diabetes burden in the United States: an epidemic on the way.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to make projections of the future diabetes burden for the adult US population based in part on the prevalence of individuals at high risk of developing diabetes. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Models were created from data in the nationally representative National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) II mortality survey (1976-1992), the NHANES III (1988-1994) and the NHANES 1999-2002. Population models for adults (>20 years of age) from NHANES III data were fitted to known diabetes prevalence in the NHANES 1999-2002 before making future projections. We used a multivariable diabetes risk score to estimate the likelihood of diabetes incidence in 10 years. Estimates of future diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) prevalence in 2011, 2021, and 2031 were made under several assumptions. RESULTS: Based on the multivariable diabetes risk score, the number of adults at high risk of diabetes was 38.4 million in 1991 and 49.9 million in 2001. The total diabetes burden is anticipated to be 11.5% (25.4 million) in 2011, 13.5% (32.6 million) in 2021, and 14.5% (37.7 million) in 2031. Among individuals aged 30 to 39 years old who are not currently targeted for screening according to age, the prevalence of diabetes is expected to rise from 3.7% in 2001 to 5.2% in 2031. By 2031, 20.2% of adult Hispanic individuals are expected to have diabetes. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The prevalence of diabetes is projected to rise to substantially greater levels than previously estimated. Diabetes prevalence within the Hispanic community is projected to be potentially overwhelming.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Lack of association between hepatitis B birth immunization and neonatal death: a population-based study from the vaccine safety datalink project.

BACKGROUND: There have been no population-based studies of the potential association between neonatal death and newborn immunization with hepatitis B vaccine (HBV). METHODS: As part of the Vaccine Safety Datalink Project, we defined a birth cohort at Southern and Northern California Kaiser Permanente Health Plans of more than 350,000 live births from 1993 to 1998 and ascertained all deaths occurring under 29 days of age. We compared the proportions of deaths among birth HBV-vaccinated and unvaccinated newborns and reviewed the causes and circumstances of their deaths. We performed detailed clinical reviews of all HBV-vaccinated neonates who died and a sample of unvaccinated neonates who died and who were matched to vaccinated deaths for days of life, sex, birth year and site of care. To avoid confounding, we categorized the causes of death as either "expected" or "unexpected" and performed a stratified analysis to compare mortality with immunization status. RESULTS: There were 1363 neonatal deaths during the study period. Whereas 67% of the entire birth cohort received HBV at birth, only 72 (5%) of the neonates who died were HBV-vaccinated at birth (P < 0.01). We found no significant difference in the proportion of HBV-vaccinated (31%) and unvaccinated (35%) neonates dying of unexpected causes (P = 0.6). Further we could not identify a plausible causal or temporal relationship between HBV administration and death for the 22 vaccinated neonates who died unexpectedly. CONCLUSIONS: A relationship between HBV and neonatal death was not identified.

California↗
PubMed2002

Modeling possible cooling-water intake system impacts on Ohio River fish populations.

To assess the possible impacts caused by cooling-water intake system entrainment and impingement losses, populations of six target fish species near power plants on the Ohio River were modeled. A Leslie matrix model was constructed to allow an evaluation of bluegill, freshwater drum, emerald shiner, gizzard shad, sauger, and white bass populations within five river pools. Site-specific information on fish abundance and length-frequency distribution was obtained from long-term Ohio River Ecological Research Program and Ohio River Sanitation Commission (ORSANCO) electrofishing monitoring programs. Entrainment and impingement data were obtained from 316(b) demonstrations previously completed at eight Ohio River power plants. The model was first run under a scenario representative of current conditions, which included fish losses due to entrainment and impingement. The model was then rerun with these losses added back into the populations, representative of what would happen if all entrainment and impingement losses were eliminated. The model was run to represent a 50-year time period, which is a typical life span for an Ohio River coal-fired power plant. Percent changes between populations modeled with and without entrainment and impingement losses in each pool were compared to the mean interannual coefficient of variation (CV), a measure of normal fish population variability. In 6 of the 22 scenarios of fish species and river pools that were evaluated (6 species x 5 river pools, minus 8 species/river pool combinations that could not be evaluated due to insufficient fish data), the projected fish population change was greater than the expected variability of the existing fish population, indicating a possible adverse environmental impact. Given the number of other variables affecting fish populations and the conservative modeling approach, which assumed 100% mortality for all entrained fish and eggs, it was concluded that the likelihood of impact was by no means assured, even in these six cases. It was concluded that in most cases, current entrainment and impingement losses at six Ohio River power plants have little or no effect at the population level.

Animals↗
PubMed1997

Projecting rates of urbanisation in England, 1991-2016: method, policy application and results.

"The rate of conversion of land from rural to urban uses has been a central concern of the British planning system. Despite this interest, however, the factual basis of the debate on the pace of urban growth, its form and distribution has been extremely weak. The reason for this is lack of appropriate data. This paper reports research on two new data sources on land use--a digital database of the boundaries of tracts of urban land in 1981 and 1991 and the Land Use Change Statistics--to analyse recent urban growth in England and, in conjunction with current household projections, to estimate the likely extent of urbanisation in 2016. In addition to assessing the geographical distribution of this growth, the paper draws out some implications for policy analysis of the method of projecting the extent of land in urban use."

Agriculture↗
PubMed1995

[Forecast of international migration, 1994-2010].

"The estimated number of immigrants [in the Netherlands] for 1994 is 104 thousand, implying a decrease of some 15 thousand compared to the preceding year.... There were approximately 79 thousand emigrants, a slight increase (4 thousand) compared to 1993. The resulting net migration decreased from 44 thousand persons in 1993 to 25 thousand persons in 1994. In 1995 a temporary increase of (net) immigration is expected, due to the increase of the number of asylum seekers in 1994.... After 1995 projected net migration rapidly declines to 35 thousand." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Demography↗