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Results for “Estimation Technics”

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At least 1,117 records · Page 62Linked to original sources
PubMed1992

An evaluation of population forecast errors for Florida and its counties.

The authors evaluate the forecasting accuracy of population projections formulated at state and county levels for Florida. They find that "projections of Florida population made in the 1970s and 1980s had errors...of approximately 2-3 percent for 5-year horizons, 5-6 percent for 10-year horizons and 8-9 percent for 15-year horizons. County projections had errors averaging approximately 5, 10 and 15 percent for these three lengths of horizon, respectively. Based on comparisons with other studies of state and substate population projections, we believe this is a good record of forecast accuracy...."

Americas↗
PubMed1992

A comparison of vendor estimates of population and households with 1990 census counts in California.

"This study compares the 1990 [U.S.] population estimates of four national demographic data vendors with the actual counts of the 1990 Census. It was performed for a consortium of three public utility companies [in California].... In addition to total population, this study evaluates the estimates of three other demographic variables...: number of households, population of Spanish origin and white population.... Differences in accuracy are found among the vendors and between variables.... On average, the estimates were most accurate for total population, considerably less so for race (white population) and households and by far the least accurate for Hispanic population."

Americas↗
PubMed1994

Small area demographic forecasts.

The author reviews the literature on small area forecasting with a focus on the work of Robert Schmitt. He finds that "the accuracy of small area forecasts has not increased appreciably over the past four decades, despite methodological progress, increased knowledge gained from the evaluation of forecasts, and more widely available and rich data. A comment made by Schmitt 40 years ago is still largely true today, 'No method is yet known for forecasting the population of small urban areas with a high degree of accuracy'...."

Demography↗
PubMed1995

Military personnel and dependents in population analysis and projection.

"Concentrations of [U.S.] armed forces and their dependents create some unusual (and little recognized) problems for applied demographers, both in analysis and projection.... Their presence complicates both the collection and interpretation of data, and has special impact on the preparation of projections." The authors discuss possible ways of resolving these problems.

Americas↗