A new approach to household fertility behavior.
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OBJECTIVE: To apply clinical effectiveness estimates of interactive, neural network-assisted (INNA) screening to economic cervical cancer screening models to assess the economic impact of using this technology. STUDY DESIGN: Estimates of the sensitivity of INNA screening were drawn from a recently completed comprehensive synthesis of the INNA literature and applied to the Computer Model for Designing CANcer ConTROL Programs-based Cervical Cancer Screen economic model. The economic analysis was conducted from a modified payer perspective using costs borne by payers combined with patient deductibles and copayments. Costs of treating cervical cancer were updated to 1997 values using the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index. The model was run for a cohort of women starting at age 20 and screened on a triennial schedule through age 75. RESULTS: In the primary analysis (sensitivity of unassisted manual examination assumed to be 85%), the ratios found in this investigation varied from approximately $35,000 to $80,000 per life year saved, with the preponderance of ratios < $50,000 per life year saved. These results were sensitive to estimates of sensitivity of unassisted manual screening but not to estimates of treatment costs. CONCLUSION: This investigation applied accuracy data on INNA rescreening to a model of the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening. The results support the use of INNA rescreening as an appropriate expenditure of resources to identify missed cases of cervical epithelial abnormalities and potential cervical cancer.
In Canada, cultural, physical and structural barriers to the poor's accessibility to health care persist. The economically disadvantaged are clearly identified as a national high-risk target group because of poorer health status and health behaviours than higher-income Canadians. A four-component model is proposed to describe the complex, multivariate nature of access to health care for the economically disadvantaged. The mutual effects of characteristics of access and poverty are outlined and strategies to facilitate improved access are delineated and exemplified. Education, comprehensive and personalized care, consumer participation, and environmental strategies, while not uniquely applicable to the needs of the poor, may collectively constitute a reasonable approach to removing barriers to access to care for this vulnerable group. Furthermore, these four strategies are consistent with premises of primary health care and health promotion. While the model encompasses many relevant variables, it is neither exclusive nor all-inclusive. Further research is required to assess the linkage between specific elements of these four components and to conduct monetary and human cost-benefit analyses of recommended approaches.
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The authors describe part of the results of a comparative clinico-economic analysis of the functioning of two models of organizational forms of psychiatric services with special reference to Moscow and Kaluga. The purpose of the given research fragment was to make a comparative analysis of expenditures on schizophrenic patients depending on the system of psychiatric services organization on the whole and between different types of services; to specify approaches to optimization of their functioning with the use of a clinico-economic approach. Based on a comparative investigation of the representative groups of schizophrenic patients (386 patients of a mental health center in Moscow and 531 patients of the Kaluga regional psychiatric hospital No. 1), it has been established that as a result of the proper organization and financing of psychiatric services in Kaluga, the "direct" expenditures on one schizophrenic patient per year could be 20% as reduced and the losses of the national income could be lowered more than 2-fold. It should necessarily be mentioned that the financing of extra hospital services in Kaluga exceeded that in Moscow more than 3-fold, reaching about 20.3% of all the expenditures on schizophrenic patients. Apparently, the organizational and financial experience gained in Kaluga with the design of the common complex and many-staged system of psychiatric services may turn fairly instrumental in elaborating approaches to optimization of the functioning of psychiatric services.
"In this paper is presented a comparative survey of the many ways in which a static Leontief input-output model can be extended to include demographic-economic relationships. A family of ten input-output models is identified, with individual members defined according to their representation of household income, employment, and unemployment. Miyazawa's fundamental equation of income formation is generalised and used to establish structural relationships between the models, as reflected in income and employment impact-multipliers. Although the emphasis of the paper is theoretical, examples are given of the empirical application of existing models."
"Labor emigration redistributes income in a two factor, two good economy where one good is internationally non-traded. Labor's nominal wage rises as nominal capital payments fall. Recent research has shown that the prices of non-traded goods rise, causing society's welfare to decline. Here the induced change in the real income of each factor is considered separately. There is an ambiguity with regard to the real income of non-emigrating labor. If labor spends a relatively small fraction of income on the non-traded goods, its real income may rise, even though society suffers the loss of welfare."
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"This paper presents a new method that can be used to reveal the policy objectives with which actual public investment decisions are consistent. Japanese regional investment expenditures from 1958 to 1978 are analyzed, and the dominant policies in effect during this period are identified using this method. A connection between Japanese regional public investment policies and the convergence of population growth across regions is suggested." The suitability of redistributive investment policies as a mechanism for the spatial stabilization of other populations experiencing rapid economic growth is noted.
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The use of modelling in economic evaluation is widespread, and it most often involves synthesising data from a number of sources. However, even when economic evaluations are conducted alongside clinical trials, some form of modelling is usually essential. The aim of this article is to review the handling of uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness results that are generated by the use of decision-analytic-type modelling. The modelling process is split into a number of stages: (i) a set of methods to be employed in a study are defined, which should include a 'reference case' of agreed methods to enhance the comparability of results; (ii) the clinical and demographic characteristics of the patients the model relates to should be specified as carefully as in any experimental study; and (iii) the data requirements of the model should be estimated using the principles of Bayesian statistics, such that prior distributions are specified for unknown model parameters. Monte Carlo simulation can then be employed to sample from these prior distributions to obtain a distribution of the cost effectiveness of the intervention. Such probabilistic analyses are related to parameter uncertainty. In addition, modelling uncertainty is likely to add a further layer of uncertainty to the results of particular analyses.
Methodology for selection index updating was developed to allow multistage selection. The program determines truncation points for each stage of selection that will maximize either profit or the ratio of aggregate economic gain to cost (R = delta H/C). Either maximum profit or R may be attained by reducing the cost of performance testing in later stages of a multistage program. In order to eliminate the need for multiple integration and assure convergence, a piecewise algorithm was developed. Examples of beef bull selection compared single-stage selection at 1 yr of age, two-stage selection at birth and 1 yr, two-stage selection at 205 d and 1 yr, and three-stage selection at birth, 205 d, and 1 yr. Selection based on three traits (birth weight, gain birth to 205 d, and gain 205 to 365 d) was compared with selection based on four traits (the above three plus ultrasound fat depth) and selection based on five traits (the above four plus feed:gain ratio). Five scenarios were used that allowed variation in proportion of candidates selected for breeding, number of progeny per selected bull, and proportion of profit returned to the nucleus herd. General conclusions based on the examples were 1) multistage selection reduced aggregate economic gain relative to that attained by single-stage selection, 2) inclusion of feed conversion in the index of traits resulted in reduced profit and aggregate economic gain, 3) measurement of feed conversion could be justified when selected bulls produced a large number of progeny, and 4) three-trait selection produced greater profit in all five scenarios than did four- or five-trait selection. Use of the selection updating program described here provides a new source of information that can be used in developing economically sound performance testing and selection programs.
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