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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources
PubMed1997

Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977-1990.

"Projecting populations that have sparse or unreliable data, such as those of many developing countries, presents a challenge to demographers. The assumptions that they make to project data-poor populations frequently fall into the realm of ¿educated guesses', and the resulting projections, often regarded as forecasts, are valid only to the extent that the assumptions on which they are based reasonably represent the past or future, as the case may be. These traditional projection techniques do not incorporate a demographer's assessment of uncertainty in the assumptions. Addressing the challenges of forecasting a data-poor population, we project the Iraqi Kurdish population using a Bayesian approach. This approach incorporates a demographer's uncertainty about past and future characteristics of the population in the form of elicited prior distributions."

Asia↗
PubMed1993

Combining census, dual-system, and evaluation study data to estimate population shares.

"The 1990 [U.S.] census and Post-Enumeration Survey produced census and dual system estimates (DSE) of population by domain, together with an estimated sampling covariance matrix of the DSE. Estimates of the bias of the DSE were derived from various PES evaluation programs. Of the three sources, the unadjusted census is the least variable but is believed to be the most biased, the DSE is less biased but more variable, and the bias estimates may be regarded as unbiased but are the most variable. This article addresses methods for combining the census, the DSE, and bias estimates obtained from the evaluation programs to produce accurate estimates of population shares, as measured by weighted squared- or absolute-error loss functions applied to estimated population shares of domains."

Americas↗
PubMed1993

Estimating heterogeneity in the probabilities of enumeration for dual-system estimation.

"We show how conditional logistic regression can be used to estimate the probability of being enumerated in a census and apply the model to the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) in the United States.... We discuss some special problems caused by the fact that the PES sample area is open to migration between the captures. We also consider the effect of data errors in estimation. We characterize hard-to-enumerate populations and give some tentative estimates of correlation bias."

Americas↗
PubMed1993

A three-sample multiple-recapture approach to census population estimation with heterogeneous catchability.

"A central assumption in the standard capture-recapture approach to the estimation of the size of a closed population is the homogeneity of the 'capture' probabilities. In this article we develop an approach that allows for varying susceptibility to capture through individual parameters using a variant of the Rasch model from psychological measurement situations. Our approach requires an additional recapture. In the context of census undercount estimation, this requirement amounts to the use of a second independent sample or alternative data source to be matched with census and Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) data.... We illustrate [our] models and their estimation using data from a 1988 dress-rehearsal study for the 1990 census conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which explored the use of administrative data as a supplement to the PES. The article includes a discussion of extensions and related models."

Americas↗
PubMed1993

Hierarchical logistic regression models for imputation of unresolved enumeration status in undercount estimation.

"In this article we describe a logistic regression modeling approach for nonresponse in the [U.S.] Post-Enumeration Survey (PES) that has desirable theoretical properties and that has performed well in practice.... In the 1990 PES, interviews were not obtained from approximately 1.2% of households in the sample, and approximately 2.1% of the individuals in interviewed households were considered unresolved after follow-up....The missing binary enumeration statuses for these unresolved cases were replaced with probabilities estimated under a statistical model that incorporated covariate information observed for these cases. This article describes an approach to modeling missing binary outcomes when there are a large number of covariates."

Americas↗
PubMed1987

[Don Daeng village in northeast Thailand: population (2). An estimate of migration by mortality and fertility rates].

"The population dynamics of Don Daeng, a rice-growing village in Northeast Thailand, was studied as part of an integrated village study program in 1981-1984. The mortality and fertility rates since the 1930s were determined from data obtained by interviewing 232 ever-married women who gave birth to 876 children, while those for the preceding periods were estimated from the village population in three separate years and by extrapolation of the trend since the 1930s, which was adjusted for the results of the national censuses....[Results indicate that] immigration dominated until the early 1940s, when paddy acreage could no longer be expanded, and since then emigration has taken place." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Agriculture↗
PubMed1996

The end of the demographic explosion in the Mediterranean?

"We...compare the UN projections made in 1994 to the previous set in 1992 and to the Blue Plan projections, for [Algeria, Egypt, Morocco, Syria, Tunisia, and Turkey, the] six most populated [developing countries in the Mediterranean region].... We shall also consider more briefly the lesser populated countries. This will enable us to appreciate the changes that have occurred in the UN's perception of population growth in this region."

Africa↗
PubMed1991

Backcalculation of flexible linear models of the human immunodeficiency virus infection curve.

The authors present a regression approach to the backcalculation of flexible linear models of the HIV infection curve. They note that "because expected AIDS incidence can be expressed as a linear function of unknown parameters, regression methods may be used to obtain parameter and covariance estimates for a variety of interesting quantities, such as the expected number of people infected in previous time intervals and the projected AIDS incidence in future time intervals. We exploit these ideas to show that estimates based on maximum likelihood are, for practical purposes, equivalent to approximate estimates based on quasi-likelihood and on Poisson regression. These algorithms are readily implemented on a personal computer." These concepts are illustrated by projecting AIDS incidence in the United States up to 1993.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1991

Mapping disease and mortality rates using empirical Bayes estimators.

"Methods for estimating regional mortality and disease rates, with a view to mapping disease, are discussed. A new empirical Bayes estimator, with parameters simply estimated by moments, is proposed and compared with iterative alternatives suggested by Clayton and Kaldor." The author develops a local shrinkage estimator in which a crude disease rate is shrunk toward a local, neighborhood rate. The estimators are compared using simulations and an empirical example based on infant mortality data for Auckland, New Zealand.

Demography↗