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PubMed1977

[The problem of economic and population development (author's transl)].

The question is raised whether the apparent complexity and differentiation excludes chance. Generally a chance occurrence is without prior determination. The laws established by economics and demography with mathematical methods are therefore not capable to determine all facts because of their hypothetical arrangement. Reality can only be expressed in a categorical judgment. It is possible to arrive from hypothetical judgments--when there is A so there is B to an existence of a categorical B. Any theory of economic balance and any calculation in a demographic model to arrive at a balanced population development are methods which correlate facts with facts and allow conclusions when the correlation is actually existent. However, no conclusion as to the idea of determination of the generative behavior by economic production can be arrived at. Revorsely the conclusion that sociologie developments and generative behavior are completely independant of economic production is not possible. Hypothetical type of thinking in a model does not exclude chance and each fact has an element of chance in it. This appears to be a heuristic circle. Noncircular conclusions for the practice of life in order to advise, decide and act, do not exist without assumptions and without value judgments. In order to influence the development of the population continued scientific reflection, observation and argumentation is necessary. Correct technical functioning is translated into social realms. New reflections and interpretations are constantly required.

Economics↗
PubMed1996

Socio-economic influences on gender inequalities in child health in rural Bangladesh.

OBJECTIVE: To investigate gender inequalities in child growth and nutritional status in relation to socio-economic status in Bangladesh. DESIGN: A 16-month longitudinal study of child growth measuring anthropometric and socio-economic status. SETTING: A rural area of Jamalpur district, northern Bangladesh. SUBJECTS: 1366 children from 2 to 6 years of age. METHODS: Child height and weight were measured monthly. Morbidity, food intake and health-seeking behaviours were assessed fortnightly. Multivariable analyses were performed on the growth and nutritional status of male and female children in relation to socio-economic factors including father's occupation, parental education, birth order and family size. RESULTS: There was no evidence of gender bias in farming and trading/employee households but landless female children had significantly poorer height-for-age (P < 0.001) and weight-for-age (P < 0.001) than their male counterparts. During a period of natural disaster, a statistically significant interaction was observed between father's occupation and sex (P < 0.05) such that the combination of being female and being landless was more detrimental to nutritional status than either variable alone. Over the following 16-months, catch-up-growth was apparent in landless female children who grew significantly more in height-for-age (P < 0.001) and weight-for-age (P < 0.001) than their male counterparts. CONCLUSIONS: Gender inequalities in health in Bangladesh varied significantly according to occupational status, such that the effect of sex was dependent upon occupation. These effects were statistically significant during the period of natural disaster but became insignificant as local conditions improved. This demonstrates both temporal and socio-economic variation in gender inequalities in health.

Analysis of Variance↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Economic consequences of HIV/AIDS in India.

BACKGROUND: HIV/AIDS is one of the pressing public health problems in India. Available information indicates a rising trend of infection. The impact of HIV/AIDS on the economic front is important as it affects mainly the young, who are in the reproductive age group. We estimated the cost of productivity losses in a lifetime attributable to HIV-related mortality in India in the population of the year 1991 at current HIV infection rates. METHODS: The analysis was done from the societal viewpoint, adopting a discount rate of 5%. To estimate the loss in person-years due to HIV/AIDS, two scenarios were considered. Firstly, the population without HIV/AIDS, and secondly, the population with HIV/AIDS. The difference in person-years lived by the cohort in both populations would provide the person-years lost due to HIV/AIDS. To calculate the person-years lived in each, the life table approach was used. The demographic data from the 1991 Census were used. The population was divided into 15 five-year cohorts and the current age-specific death rates were used. Assumptions regarding HIV incidence rates in urban and rural areas in different age groups were made based on the available data and consensus of experts. The estimate was first done for a cohort of 100,000 population for rural and urban areas and then extrapolated to the population in the different age groups. To convert the person-years lost into monetary terms, minimum wages were estimated to be Rs 14,460 per annum. RESULTS: The total undiscounted life-years lost due to HIV/ AIDS by the present population of India will be 238.4 million years-123.7 million years for urban and 114.7 million years for rural areas. On an average this is 0.4 years lost per person. The life-years lost per case of HIV was 44.4 years. Assuming minimum wages of Rs 14460 as the value of one year, the total economic loss is Rs 3447 billion. The productivity loss per case is Rs 642,024 (US$ 20,710). For an estimated national per capita income of Rs 4252.4 the total economic loss is Rs 1014 billion. If a discount rate of 5% is applied for future losses then the total potential years of life lost will be 23 million-11.3 million for urban and 11.7 million for rural areas. In monetary terms this will be Rs 332.6 billion by minimum wages assumption, and 97.8 billion if the national per capita income is assumed to be the cost of one year. CONCLUSION: HIV/AIDS imposes a significant burden on the economic front. The productivity losses are likely to be an underestimate as the costs of treatment of HIV/AIDS patients, prevention programmes and labour costs have not been taken into account. To decide whether HIV/AIDS needs a high priority int he Indian context, it is necessary to have similar estimates for other important diseases such as tuberculosis and cancer.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1997

The effects of economic and population growth on national saving and inequality.

This is a progress report on ongoing research into the effects of economic and population growth on national saving rates and inequality. The theoretical basis for the investigation is the life cycle model of saving and inequality. We report evidence that is conditional on the validity of the model, as well as evidence that casts doubt on it. Using time series of cross-sectional household surveys from Taiwan, Thailand, Britain, and the United States, we show that it is possible to force a life cycle interpretation on the data on consumption, income, and saving, but that the evidence is not consistent with large rate-of-growth effects, whereby economic and population growth enhances rates of national saving. The well-established cross-country link between economic growth and saving cannot be attributed to life cycle saving, nor will changes in economic or population growth exert large effects on saving within individual countries. There is evidence in favor of the life cycle model's prediction that within-cohort inequality of consumption and of total income--though not necessarily inequality of earnings--should increase with the age of the cohort. Decreases in the population growth rate redistribute population toward older, more unequal, cohorts, and can increase national inequality. We provide calculations on the magnitude of these effects.

Adult↗
PubMed1997

The impact of economic embargoes on the health of women and children.

Economic embargoes have become common since the end of the Cold War. This review of health changes in Iraq, Haiti, Yugoslavia, Nicaragua, South Africa, and Cuba indicates that the major impact of decreased access to health goods occurs among the most politically and economically vulnerable sectors of the population, particularly women and children under five years of age. While some societies are skilled at attenuating the negative health effects of economic embargoes, nearly all countries have demonstrable deterioration in the health sector, despite major attempts to provide humanitarian assistance. Recommendations for reducing the negative impact of economic embargoes on civilian populations include exempting humanitarian goods (food and medical supplies) and international agreements to define exempt goods and guarantee their delivery.

Child↗
PubMed1984

Can economic incentives explain the recent population movements to nonmetropolitan areas?

Factors affecting migration from metropolitan to nonmetropolitan areas of the United States are explored using a time-series model of annual net migration in Minnesota for the period 1951 to 1978. The importance of economic factors is emphasized. The authors "also found support for the null hypothesis of exogeneity of nonmetropolitan unemployment, the economic influence on migration that is most likely to be endogenous. The results of Chow Tests indicate that changes in the portion of migration behavior...investigated reflect stable responses to changes in economic incentives."

Americas↗
PubMed1998

Across the border: immigrants' economic opportunities, social capital and informal business activities.

"In this article, we [explore] the relationship between informal economic activities and recent immigrants in the Netherlands.... We will give an overview of important trends on both the demand and the supply side of entrepreneurial activities in the informal economy. We argue that the potential for informal economic activities by immigrants in large Dutch cities has been growing since the early 1980s. After having outlined this analytical framework, we examine some recent evidence on informal economic activities by immigrants in the Netherlands, especially in the bakeries sector, before concluding the discussion."

Demography↗
PubMed1997

The new economic policy and permanent migration in Zhejiang Province, China.

"This article examines the impact of economic reforms on the volume and characteristics of permanent migration in Zhejiang Province, China. The data suggest that the new economic policy induced a surge in permanent migration during the post-reform years. Such positive impact of the reform on permanent migration has started to fade away in 1985, as government relaxed its control over residence. Moreover, market mechanisms started playing a more important role in employment, exchange, and consumption. The data also suggest that the new economic policy has particularly favored the better educated, and thereby increased educational differentials between permanent migrants and nonmigrants. For all other characteristics examined, the results show consistently that post-reform migrants are less differentiated from nonmigrants than their pre-reform counterparts." An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.

Asia↗
PubMed1987

Magic and myth of migration: a case study of a special economic zone in China.

The town of Shenzhen, China, experienced rapid economic and demographic growth following the government's creation of four Special Economic Zones in 1980. The role of migration in the Shenzhen phenomenon is examined as a practicum for policymakers and demographic specialists. Specifically, the paper is concerned with "the sources and mechanisms of migration, and characteristics of migrants to Shenzhen in order to clarify the relationship between rapid economic growth and its demographic consequences in China. It also briefly assesses the problems associated with migration to Shenzhen and how they may affect the city's future."

Asia↗
PubMed1989

[Internal migration and regional economic differentials in postwar Japan].

The author considers the impact of economic growth on regional differences in internal migration in Japan since World War II. "During the rapid economic growth period from the latter half of the 1950s to an early part of the 1970s, the number of migrants to metropolitan areas from other areas increased continuously. During the slow economic growth period from an early part of the 1970s to the present, however, the volume of internal migration has been decreasing mainly because of the decline in the number of in-migrants to metropolitan areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Asia↗
PubMed1989

Population growth and economic development: a case study of Yugoslavia.

The paper deals with the relationship between the population growth and economic development in Yugoslavia and its republics, covering the period after the 2nd World War. Yugoslavia is a developing country with a specific demographic and economic structure which makes it unique in Europe. Its territory is comprised of both relatively developed regions where demographic transition is over, and underdeveloped regions with high natural increase of population where the demographic transition is only just beginning. Correlation and regression methods were used to quantify this relationship. The economic development and structural changes are discussed, relating to human factor. An adequate population policy through family planning is stressed as important in obtaining an increased return to scale with a more positive role of demographic factor.

Birth Rate↗
PubMed1988

Population growth and economic development in the very long run: a simulation model of three revolutions.

The authors propose an economic model capable of simulating the 4 main historical stages of civilization: hunting, agricultural, industrial, and postindustrial. An output-maximizing society to respond to changes in factor endowments by switching technologies. Changes in factor proportions arise through population growth and capital accumulation. A slow rate of exogenous technical process is assumed. The model synthesizes Malthusian and Boserupian notions of the effect of population growth on per capita output. Initially the capital-diluting effect of population growth dominates. As population density increases, however, and a threshold is reached, the Boserupian effect becomes crucial, and a technological revolution occurs. The cycle is thereafter repeated. After the second economic revolution, however, the Malthusian constraint dissolves permanently, as population growth can continue without being constrained by diminishing returns to labor. By synthesizing Malthusian and Boserupian notions, the model is able to capture the salient features of economic development in the very long run.

Agriculture↗
PubMed1988

Economic development, population and primacy.

"This paper investigates the relationship between economic development and primacy advanced by El-Shakhs, Mera and others, and finds no statistically significant link when obvious demographic influences are taken into account. Three variables (national population, the urban population share, and a Latin American dummy) explain 40% of the variation in primacy in a sample of 116 countries (including 82 developing countries). Economic factors do not appear to be important. Demography may be more influential than economics in attempts to explain primacy."

Demography↗
PubMed1993

International labour migration in the Asian-Pacific region: patterns, policies and economic implications.

"This paper reviews the literature on international labour migration from and within the Asian-Pacific region. It deals with patterns and characteristics of migration flows, government policies towards labour migration, and economic implications of labour migration for both labour-exporting and importing countries in the region. The indications are that, despite gradual slowing down of labour flows to the western industrial countries and the Middle East, labour migration will continue to be a major economic influence on surplus-labour countries in the region. As an integral part of the growth dynamism in the region, labour migration has now begun to take on a regional dimension, with immense implications for the process of industrial restructuring in high growth economies and the changing pattern of economic interdependence among countries."

Asia↗
PubMed1990

Regional differences in immigration and economic structure in Australia.

"The scale of overseas immigration and the exceptional importance of the role played by migrants in demographic, economic and cultural trends in Australia makes the immigration policy one of the key components of Australian politics. Both the immigration policy and the outcomes of this policy are shaped by four major groups of factors: demographic, economic, cultural, and political in a broad sense. The weighting of these factors changes from period to period. This paper looks at the extent to which some of these factors affect regional differentiation of the immigration pattern. The analysis is focused on the influences of employment structure and other socio-economic characteristics of different Australian regions, exerted on overseas migration to these regions." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND SPA)

Australia↗
PubMed1986

The shifting social and economic tides of black America, 1950-1980.

"This article examines significant demographic trends that illustrate the advances of many black Americans from 1954 to 1984. We also examine trends which indicate deterioration in the socioeconomic circumstances and life chances of a significant portion of the black population. The two competing trends in the status of black Americans (at one extreme an emerging black elite, at the other a growing black underclass) have been central in provocative debates about economics and race over the past decade. This article locates the debate in historical context, summarizing the work of early theorists on this issue." The authors use U.S. census data "to document changes from 1950-1980 in occupational distribution, labor force participation, educational attainment, income and earnings, fertility and mortality rates, and family organizational patterns for blacks and whites. Using the political economy perspective, we argue that race and economic status are inexorably linked in this society. Shifts in the society's economic base coupled with historical (and contemporary) patterns of racial oppression explain the disproportionate concentration of blacks in the underclass."

Black or African American↗
PubMed1987

The economic crisis and its impact on health and health care in Latin America and the Caribbean.

The economic crisis that struck most Latin American and Caribbean countries beginning in 1982 has caused sharp reductions in domestic investment and in imports; domestic consumption has been less affected, while public sector spending has responded in different degrees in different countries. In general, public spending on health decreased, sometimes quite dramatically, but some countries were able to maintain the real value of noninvestment spending for health by central governments. It is much harder to tell what may have happened to output of health services, and still harder to know how health status has been affected. Scattered evidence suggests two conclusions. First, worsened economic conditions can seriously damage health status, with effects on infant mortality and on the patterns of disease and death, especially for children. Second, these repercussions do not have to occur, and public programs designed specifically to maintain basic health services and to assure adequate nutrition are effective in offsetting the worst consequences of economic hardship.

Child↗
PubMedDate not supplied

Economic development and fertility: an empirical analysis using cross-national data.

"Until the early 1950s the study and analysis of fertility was believed to be outside the scope of economic theory. However, with the extension of economics to account for non-market household behaviour and human capital such analysis has become possible. Several theories on the relationship between economic development and fertility have been proposed. These theories are often tested with multiple regression and areal cross-national data. This paper examines the statistical assumption underlying such models." (SUMMARY IN FRE AND ITA)

Behavior↗