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At least 1,081 records · Page 60Linked to original sources

Solar variability, coupling between atmospheric layers and climate change.

One of the enduring puzzles of atmospheric physics is the extent to which changes in the Sun can influence the behaviour of the climate system. While solar-flux changes tend to be relatively modest, a number of observations of atmospheric parameters indicates a disproportionately large response. Global-scale models of the coupled middle and upper atmosphere have provided new insights into some of the mechanisms that may be responsible for the amplification of the solar signal. In particular, modification of the transport of heat and chemicals such as ozone by waves during periods of solar activity has been shown to make an important contribution to the climate of the stratosphere and mesosphere. In this paper, a review of some of the recent advances in understanding the coupling between atmospheric layers and how this work relates to Sun-weather relations and climate change in the troposphere will be presented, along with a discussion of some of the challenges that remain.

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Abrupt glacial climate changes due to stochastic resonance.

Using an ocean-atmosphere climate model we demonstrate that stochastic resonance could be an important mechanism for millennial-scale climate variability during glacial times. We propose that the glacial ocean circulation, unlike today's, was an excitable system with a stable and a weakly unstable mode of operation, and that a combination of weak periodic forcing and plausible-amplitude stochastic fluctuations of the freshwater flux into the northern North Atlantic can produce glacial warm events similar in time evolution, amplitude, spatial pattern, and interspike intervals to those found in the observed climate records.

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Adapting to climate: a case study on riverine flood risks in the Netherlands.

Climate change may well lead to an increased risk of river floods in the Netherlands. However, the impacts of changes in water management on river floods are larger, either enhancing or reducing flood risks. Therefore, the abilities of water-management authorities to learn that climate and river flows are changing, and to recognize and act upon the implications, are of crucial importance. At the same time, water-management authorities respond to other trends, such as the democratization of decision making, which alter their ability to react to climate change. These complex interactions are illustrated with changes in river flood risk management for the Rhine and the Meuse in the Netherlands over the last 50 years. A scenario study is used to seek insight into the question of whether current water-management institutions and their likely successors are capable of dealing with plausible future flood risks. The scenarios show that new and major infrastructure is needed to keep flood risks at their current level. Such a structural solution to future flood risks is feasible, but requires considerable political will and institutional reform, both for planning and implementation. It is unlikely that reform will be fast enough or the will strong enough.

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Recent invasion of the mountain birch Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa above the treeline due to climate change: genetic and ecological study in northern Sweden.

Mountain birch, Betula pubescens ssp. tortuosa, forms the treeline in northern Sweden. A recent shift in the range of the species associated with an elevation of the treeline is commonly attributed to climate warming. Using microsatellite markers, we explored the genetic structure of populations along an altitudinal gradient close to the treeline. Low genetic differentiation was found between populations, whereas high genetic diversity was maintained within populations. High level of gene flow compensated for possible losses of genetic diversity at higher elevations and dissipated the founding effect of newly established populations above the treeline. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed low spatial genetic structure within populations because of extensive gene flow. At the treeline, significant genetic structure within the juvenile age class at small distances did not persist in the adult age class, indicating recent expansion of young recruits due to the warming of the climate. Finally, seedling performance above the treeline was positively correlated with parameters related to temperature. These data confirm the high migration potential of the species in response to fluctuating environmental conditions and indicate that it is now invading higher altitudes due to the recent warming of the climate.

Age Factors↗

School climate: psychological health and well-being in school.

This article explores several aspects of a healthy school climate. Beginning with a general discussion, it also examines elements of school climate such as interpersonal relationships and supportive instructional practices. A discussion of the school as a human social system that lends itself to a problem-solving approach to identify, explore, and resolve issues of psychological climate in school is included.

Adaptation, Psychological↗

Organizational climate: implications for the home healthcare workforce.

Organizational climate generally refers to staff members' perceptions of organizational features like decision making, leadership, and norms. It is widely acknowledged that these perceptions influence patient, employee, and system outcomes. However, there has been little consensus on how best to measure these important relationships. This article examines how organizational climate has been defined and measured in health services research and identifies factors most important in home healthcare delivery. Standardization of climate measures will facilitate the ultimate goal of translating results into evidence-based management practices to improve the quality of care delivery.

Home Care Agencies↗

Development of scales to measure perceived physical education class climate: a cross-national project.

Motivational research in the classroom has adopted a social cognitive perspective but has mainly been restricted to the study of individual achievement cognitions. In addition to this, there is a need to study and assess the perception children have of the class climate. Using social cognitive theory as a base, this research reports the development of class climate scales in French and English for use in physical education classes. Psychometric development with the French scale was shown to be satisfactory, including adequate factorial structure assessed by exploratory and confirmatory factor analysis (CFA), and good internal and test-retest reliability. A parallel English scale demonstrated a less adequate fit to the proposed model when using CFA, but shortened scales assessing just mastery and performance dimensions of climate were shown to predict important motivational measures in a structural equation modelling analysis.

Adolescent↗

Instability of glacial climate in a model of the ocean- atmosphere-cryosphere system.

In contrast to the relatively stable climate of the past 10,000 years, during glacial times the North Atlantic region experienced large-amplitude transitions between cold (stadial) and warm (interstadial) states. In this modeling study, we demonstrate that hydrological interactions between the Atlantic thermohaline circulation (THC) and adjacent continental ice sheets can trigger abrupt warming events and also limit the lifetime of the interstadial circulation mode. These interactions have the potential to destabilize the THC, which is already more sensitive for glacial conditions than for the present-day climate, thus providing an explanation for the increased variability of glacial climate.

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340,000-year centennial-scale marine record of Southern Hemisphere climatic oscillation.

In order to investigate rapid climatic changes at mid-southern latitudes, we have developed centennial-scale paleoceanographic records from the southwest Pacific that enable detailed comparison with Antarctic ice core records. These records suggest close coupling of mid-southern latitudes with Antarctic climate during deglacial and interglacial periods. Glacial sections display higher variability than is seen in Antarctic ice cores, which implies climatic decoupling between mid- and high southern latitudes due to enhanced circum-Antarctic circulation. Structural and temporal similarity with the Greenland ice core record is evident in glacial sections and suggests a degree of interhemispheric synchroneity not predicted from bipolar ice core correlations.

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Simulation of recent southern hemisphere climate change.

Recent observations indicate that climate change over the high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere is dominated by a strengthening of the circumpolar westerly flow that extends from the surface to the stratosphere. Here we demonstrate that the seasonality, structure, and amplitude of the observed climate trends are simulated in a state-of-the-art atmospheric model run with high vertical resolution that is forced solely by prescribed stratospheric ozone depletion. The results provide evidence that anthropogenic emissions of ozonedepleting gases have had a distinct impact on climate not only at stratospheric levels but at Earth's surface as well.

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Cyclic variation and solar forcing of Holocene climate in the Alaskan subarctic.

High-resolution analyses of lake sediment from southwestern Alaska reveal cyclic variations in climate and ecosystems during the Holocene. These variations occurred with periodicities similar to those of solar activity and appear to be coherent with time series of the cosmogenic nuclides 14C and 10Be as well as North Atlantic drift ice. Our results imply that small variations in solar irradiance induced pronounced cyclic changes in northern high-latitude environments. They also provide evidence that centennial-scale shifts in the Holocene climate were similar between the subpolar regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific, possibly because of Sun-ocean-climate linkages.

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African droughts and dust transport to the Caribbean: climate change implications.

Great quantities of African dust are carried over large areas of the Atlantic and to the Caribbean during much of the year. Measurements made from 1965 to 1998 in Barbados trade winds show large interannual changes that are highly anticorrelated with rainfall in the Soudano-Sahel, a region that has suffered varying degrees of drought since 1970. Regression estimates based on long-term rainfall data suggest that dust concentrations were sharply lower during much of the 20th century before 1970, when rainfall was more normal. Because of the great sensitivity of dust emissions to climate, future changes in climate could result in large changes in emissions from African and other arid regions that, in turn, could lead to impacts on climate over large areas.

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Southern Hemisphere water mass conversion linked with North Atlantic climate variability.

Intermediate water variability at multicentennial scales is documented by 340,000-year-long isotope time series from bottom-dwelling foraminifers at a mid-depth core site in the southwest Pacific. Periods of sudden increases in intermediate water production are linked with transient Southern Hemisphere warm episodes, which implies direct control of climate warming on intermediate water conversion at high southern latitudes. Coincidence with episodes of climate cooling and minimum or halted deepwater convection in the North Atlantic provides striking evidence for interdependence of water mass conversion in both hemispheres, with implications for interhemispheric forcing of ocean thermohaline circulation and climate instability.

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Organic aerosol growth mechanisms and their climate-forcing implications.

Surface- and volume-limited chemical reactions on and in atmospheric aerosol particles cause growth while changing organic composition by 13 to 24% per day. Many of these particles contain carbonaceous components from mineral dust and combustion emissions in Africa, Asia, and North America and reveal reaction rates that are three times slower than those typically used in climate models. These slower rates for converting from volatile or hydrophobic to condensed and hygroscopic organic compounds increase carbonaceous particle burdens in climate models by 70%, producing organic aerosol climate forcings of as much as -0.8 watt per square meter cooling and +0.3 watt per square meter warming.

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Simulating Arctic climate warmth and icefield retreat in the last interglaciation.

In the future, Arctic warming and the melting of polar glaciers will be considerable, but the magnitude of both is uncertain. We used a global climate model, a dynamic ice sheet model, and paleoclimatic data to evaluate Northern Hemisphere high-latitude warming and its impact on Arctic icefields during the Last Interglaciation. Our simulated climate matches paleoclimatic observations of past warming, and the combination of physically based climate and ice-sheet modeling with ice-core constraints indicate that the Greenland Ice Sheet and other circum-Arctic ice fields likely contributed 2.2 to 3.4 meters of sea-level rise during the Last Interglaciation.

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Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability

Atmospheric weather systems become unpredictable beyond a few weeks, but climate variations can be predictable over much longer periods because of the coupling of the ocean and atmosphere. With the use of a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model, it is shown that the North Atlantic may have climatic predictability on the order of a decade or longer. These results suggest that variations of the dominant multidecadal sea surface temperature patterns in the North Atlantic, which have been associated with changes in climate over Eurasia, can be predicted if an adequate and sustainable system for monitoring the Atlantic Ocean exists.

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Simulated increase of hurricane intensities in a CO2-warmed climate

Hurricanes can inflict catastrophic property damage and loss of human life. Thus, it is important to determine how the character of these powerful storms could change in response to greenhouse gas-induced global warming. The impact of climate warming on hurricane intensities was investigated with a regional, high-resolution, hurricane prediction model. In a case study, 51 western Pacific storm cases under present-day climate conditions were compared with 51 storm cases under high-CO2 conditions. More idealized experiments were also performed. The large-scale initial conditions were derived from a global climate model. For a sea surface temperature warming of about 2.2 degrees C, the simulations yielded hurricanes that were more intense by 3 to 7 meters per second (5 to 12 percent) for wind speed and 7 to 20 millibars for central surface pressure.

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Climate-Ocean Variability and Ecosystem Response in the Northeast Pacific

The role of climatic variation in regulating marine populations and communities is not well understood. To improve our knowledge, the sign, amplitude, and frequency of climatic and biotic variations should be compared as a necessary first step. It is shown that there have been large interannual and interdecadal sea-surface temperature changes off the West Coast of North America during the past 80 years. Interannual anomalies appear and disappear rather suddenly and synchronously along the entire coastline. The frequency of warm events has increased since 1977. Although extensive, serial, biological observations are often incomplete, it is clear that climate-ocean variations have disturbed and changed our coastal ecosystems.

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