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Forecasting, warning, and detection of malaria epidemics: a case study.

Our aim was to assess whether a combination of seasonal climate forecasts, monitoring of meteorological conditions, and early detection of cases could have helped to prevent the 2002 malaria emergency in the highlands of western Kenya. Seasonal climate forecasts did not anticipate the heavy rainfall. Rainfall data gave timely and reliable early warnings; but monthly surveillance of malaria out-patients gave no effective alarm, though it did help to confirm that normal rainfall conditions in Kisii Central and Gucha led to typical resurgent outbreaks whereas exceptional rainfall in Nandi and Kericho led to true malaria epidemics. Management of malaria in the highlands, including improved planning for the annual resurgent outbreak, augmented by simple central nationwide early warning, represents a feasible strategy for increasing epidemic preparedness in Kenya.

Climate↗

What dermatologists do not know about smallpox vaccination: results from a worldwide electronic survey.

The risk of a bioterrorist attack with smallpox has increased owing to breakthroughs in the de novo synthesis of long-chain DNA molecules. Although the leading roles of dermatologists in diagnosing recent outbreaks of cutaneous anthrax and monkeypox demonstrate the importance of dermatologist preparedness for bioterrorism, dermatologist knowledge regarding smallpox vaccination has not been extensively examined. We conducted a cross-sectional worldwide electronic survey of all members of the American Academy of Dermatology with available e-mail addresses. The response rate was 23% (1,303/5,723): 34% of respondents were women, 52% were age 50 or older, 85% practiced in the US, and 90% reported English as their primary language. Less than 37% indicated the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated rate of death owing to smallpox vaccination (1 in 1,000,000), and many failed to identify vaccination contraindications: previous myocardial infarction (83%), angina (83%), congestive heart failure (78%), steroid eye drop use (65%), and the non-emergency vaccination of those younger than age 18 (95%). Widespread dermatologist smallpox vaccination knowledge deficits pinpoint opportunities for educational efforts.

Adult↗

Eosinophilia-myalgia syndrome: lessons for public health researchers.

OBJECTIVE: To review epidemiological investigations into the epidemic of eosinophilia-myalgia syndrome which occurred predominantly in the United States of America in mid to late 1989, and examine the implications for similar urgent public health research in Australia. DATA SOURCES: Published data from epidemiological research, and relevant regulatory statements. OUTCOME: Intensive epidemiological investigations established that eosinophilia-myalgia syndrome was strongly associated with ingestion of L-tryptophan produced by a single manufacturer. It is likely that an identified contaminant has a role in pathogenesis, although the mechanism of action remains unclear. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid epidemiological investigation led to early containment measures and prevention of further public exposure to the causative agent. The episode highlighted the importance of preparedness amongst public health organisations to promptly initiate investigations of disease outbreaks, and demonstrated the benefits of a nation-wide ability to coordinate these studies. There may be encumbrances to urgent public health research in the form of inadequate mechanisms of data linkage. It is recommended that attention be given to such barriers now rather than in a time of crisis.

Australia↗

Pandemic influenza preparedness: an ethical framework to guide decision-making.

BACKGROUND: Planning for the next pandemic influenza outbreak is underway in hospitals across the world. The global SARS experience has taught us that ethical frameworks to guide decision-making may help to reduce collateral damage and increase trust and solidarity within and between health care organisations. Good pandemic planning requires reflection on values because science alone cannot tell us how to prepare for a public health crisis. DISCUSSION: In this paper, we present an ethical framework for pandemic influenza planning. The ethical framework was developed with expertise from clinical, organisational and public health ethics and validated through a stakeholder engagement process. The ethical framework includes both substantive and procedural elements for ethical pandemic influenza planning. The incorporation of ethics into pandemic planning can be helped by senior hospital administrators sponsoring its use, by having stakeholders vet the framework, and by designing or identifying decision review processes. We discuss the merits and limits of an applied ethical framework for hospital decision-making, as well as the robustness of the framework. SUMMARY: The need for reflection on the ethical issues raised by the spectre of a pandemic influenza outbreak is great. Our efforts to address the normative aspects of pandemic planning in hospitals have generated interest from other hospitals and from the governmental sector. The framework will require re-evaluation and refinement and we hope that this paper will generate feedback on how to make it even more robust.

Coercion↗

[The Israeli medical response plan for an unusual biological event].

Lack of national preparedness for biological warfare or a bioterrorism event as well as for a natural outbreak of a dangerous agent may lead to grave consequences (large-scale morbidity and mortality) in the short and long term. Threat assessment and its consequences are the basis for the contingency for such an event, with the medical community playing the leading role. In this article we present the principles of the Israeli medical response plan for an unusual biological event--whether of natural origin or a deliberate attack. The primary goals of the preparedness program are reducing mortality and morbidity, preventing a disaster, decreasing the irrational public response and inducing the resumption of the normal course of life. The program presented and its phases are universal, with the proper modifications needed to be implemented according to the specific etiology and the circumstances of the event. In order to successfully deal with the incident, national-level coordination of many non-medical organizations is required. An integration body in the Ministry of Health is a prerequisite for the early detection of the outbreak and for the rapid and proper identification of the etiologic agent. An effective triage system which screens the truly-exposed, the sick and their contacts among the many worried-well engorging the medical organizations, should be the spearhead for an integrated health system dealing with disease prevention and treatment. Public relations and recruitment of the media for transferring relevant information are a vital part of the response. In this rare and unfamiliar emergency situation the basic principle is to use existing response systems, implementing most of the routine procedures and functions, modified according to guidelines from central governmental bodies.

Biological Warfare↗

How to develop and implement pandemic preparedness plans? The need for a coherent European policy.

How should public health authorities confront the threat of pandemic influenza? Is massive stockpiling the answer? If so, the costs could be overwhelming. Or is vaccination of pre-selected segments of the population the best approach? If so, then what about the tough ethical question that must be addressed: for whom--and by whose decision? Are local and national health authorities operating on the same wavelength? Just how all-encompassing should a national preparedness plan be? Finally, can we count on one national government to shuttle vaccines across Europe's internal borders where they are needed to deal with an outbreak--or will hoarding and panic ensue? These issues and more were the focus of debate during the conference's session on preparedness plans, chaired by Dr. D. Fedson, former professor of medicine at the University of Virginia. As participants observed, Europe faces an alarming diversity of approaches and states of readiness from one country to the next, which cries out for a coherent European policy.

Disaster Planning↗

Public Health Information Network--improving early detection by using a standards-based approach to connecting public health and clinical medicine.

Public health departments and their clinical partners are moving ahead rapidly to implement systems for early detection of disease outbreaks. In the urgency to develop useful early detection systems, information systems must adhere to certain standards to facilitate sustainable, real-time delivery of important data and to make data available to the public health partners who verify, investigate, and respond to outbreaks. To ensure this crucial interoperability, all information systems supported by federal funding for state and local preparedness capacity are required to adhere to the Public Health Information Network standards.

Bioterrorism↗

Standardized emergency management system and response to a smallpox emergency.

The smallpox virus is a high-priority, Category-A agent that poses a global, terrorism security risk because it: (1) easily can be disseminated and transmitted from person to person; (2) results in high mortality rates and has the potential for a major public health impact; (3) might cause public panic and social disruption; and (4) requires special action for public health preparedness. In recognition of this risk, the Los Angeles County Department of Health Services (LAC-DHS) developed the Smallpox Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Plan for LAC to prepare for the possibility of an outbreak of smallpox. A unique feature of the LAC-DHS plan is its explicit use of the Standardized Emergency Management System (SEMS) framework for detailing the functions needed to respond to a smallpox emergency. The SEMS includes the Incident Command System (ICS) structure (management, operations, planning/intelligence, logistics, and finance/administration), the mutual-aid system, and the multi/interagency coordination required during a smallpox emergency. Management for incident command includes setting objectives and priorities, information (risk communications), safety, and liaison. Operations includes control and containment of a smallpox outbreak including ring vaccination, mass vaccination, adverse events monitoring and assessment, management of confirmed and suspected smallpox cases, contact tracing, active surveillance teams and enhanced hospital-based surveillance, and decontamination. Planning/intelligence functions include developing the incident action plan, epidemiological investigation and analysis of smallpox cases, and epidemiological assessment of the vaccination coverage status of populations at risk. Logistics functions include receiving, handling, inventorying, and distributing smallpox vaccine and vaccination clinic supplies; personnel; transportation; communications; and health care of personnel. Finally, finance/administration functions include monitoring costs related to the smallpox emergency, procurement, and administrative aspects that are not handled by other functional divisions of incident command systems. The plan was developed and is under frequent review by the LAC-DHS Smallpox Planning Working Group, and is reviewed periodically by the LAC Bioterrorism Advisory Committee, and draws upon the Smallpox Response Plan and Guidelines of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and recommendations of the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP). The Smallpox Preparedness, Response, and Recovery Plan, with its SEMS framework and ICS structure, now is serving as a model for the development of LAC-DHS plans for responses to other terrorist or natural-outbreak responses.

Bioterrorism↗

Hospital planning ahead for bird flu pandemic.

In preparing your department's response to a pandemic, it's best to plot out worst-case scenarios. Once the scenarios have been created, explore all possible solutions to equipment and staffing shortages. Since existing capacity will be insufficient, identify in advance alternative sites for treating victims. Stay abreast of new equipment developments, such as multiple ventilators, that may help deal with the added volume of immune compromised patients. Recognize that the level of care will be reduced, and adjust your emergency preparedness protocols accordingly.

Animals↗

Autochthonous chikungunya virus (CHIKV) outbreak in the province of Modena, Emilia-Romagna region, Italy, August to October 2025: epidemiology, clinical features and virological findings.

Between 10 August and 31 October 2025, 343 cases (306 confirmed and 37 probable) of symptomatic autochthonous chikungunya virus (CHIKV) infection were notified in eight municipalities in the province of Modena, Emilia-Romagna region, northern Italy. The infection was diagnosed by detection of CHIKV RNA in blood and urine samples, and by detection of IgM antibodies against CHIKV. Most common symptoms were arthralgia (n = 326) and fever (n = 317). No fatalities were reported. Chikungunya virus RNA was detected in 39 (14.8%) of 263 pools of Aedes albopictus mosquitoes, thereby confirming local vector-borne transmission. Sequences from 11 case samples and two mosquito pools were whole genome sequenced. The viral strain belonged to the East/Central/South African (ECSA) lineage 2 and was closely related to the strains circulating in Reunion Island in 2024-25. The public health response included rapid vector control measures, reinforced epidemiological surveillance and multidisciplinary coordination between public health authorities and clinicians, laboratories and entomologists. This was one of the largest autochthonous CHIKV outbreaks ever recorded in a temperate European region. It highlights the critical importance of integrated, multidisciplinary preparedness and response for arboviral threats in non-endemic areas.

Humans↗