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PubMed2006

Optimization of the procedure for the determination of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and their derivatives in fish tissue: Estimation of measurements uncertainty.

Three alternative procedures were employed for the isolation of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs; 15 of 16 US EPA priority pollutants and benzo[e]pyrene), their methyl-derivatives and sulphur analogues from fish tissue: (1) Soxhlet extraction, (2) batch extraction enhanced by sonication, and (3) saponification of the sample followed by re-extraction of analytes into hexane. Soxhlet extraction using hexane-acetone (1:1, v/v) was the most efficient extraction technique, with analyte recoveries in the range 70-108%. Within optimization of the clean-up step, several types of gel permeation chromatography (GPC) systems were tested: two types of polystyrene divinylbenzene copolymer gels (PSDVB), both 'soft' gel type (Bio-Beads S-X3) and 'rigid' gels type (PL gel and Envirogel) in combination with various mobile phases were compared. Bio-Beads S-X3 and mobile phase chloroform were the most appropriate for purifying of crude extracts before the final determinative step. High-performance liquid chromatography with fluorimetric detection (HPLC/FLD) was used for identification and quantification of PAHs in purified fish extracts. The uncertainties of PAHs measurements were estimated by employing two alternative approaches. Both provided similar results: the expanded uncertainties obtained for individual PAHs by the 'top-down' approach were in the range 9-53%, their values resulting from application of the 'bottom-up' approach were in the range 16-52%.

Animals↗
PubMedDate not supplied

The representation of uncertainty in medical expert systems.

The development of the rule-based expert system has provided important new techniques for the representation of knowledge. However, continued use of this representational scheme has highlighted some of its deficiencies. In particular, many within scientific and non-scientific fields attempting to use the rule-base design to describe natural phenomena often find it difficult to represent the complexities of the world as 'absolute' rules. For this reason, many investigators acknowledge the need to add an uncertainty mechanism to the rule-base construct. Such a facility would allow the quantification of accuracy or strength of association within individual rules Although agreement exists on the need for an uncertainty representation facility, the debate concerning the most appropriate methodology is far from resolved. The purpose of this paper is to provide a review and commentary on the current state of debate over the five most popular candidate uncertainty models: symbolic representation, MYCIN certainty factors, Bayesian, Dempster-Shafer and fuzzy set logic. The advantages and disadvantages of each uncertainty calculi will be presented and assessed with respect to their applicability to the medical expert systems domain.

Bayes Theorem↗
PubMed1977

Improved method for the analysis of estrogenic steroids in pregnancy urine by high-performance liquid chromatography.

The use of microparticulate packing materials and large injection volumes gives significant improvements in the analysis of complex samples, such as urine extracts by high-performance liquid chromatography. Lower detection limits and improved accuracy can now be attained. In addition, the combined use of adsorption and reversed-phase chromatography leads to reduced uncertainty in peak identification and gives more reliable quantification.

Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid↗
PubMed1995

A Monte Carlo investigation of dual-energy-window scatter correction for volume-of-interest quantification in 99Tcm SPECT.

Using Monte Carlo simulation of 99Tcm single-photon-emission computed tomography (SPECT), we investigate the effects of tissue-background activity, tumour location, patient size, uncertainty of energy windows, and definition of tumour region on the accuracy of quantification. The dual-energy-window method of correction for Compton scattering is employed and the multiplier which yields correct activity for the VI as a whole calculated. The model is usually a sphere containing radioactive water located within a cylinder filled with a more dilute solution of radioactivity. Two simulation codes are employed. Reconstruction is by ML-EM algorithm with attenuation compensation. The scatter multiplier depends only slightly on the sphere location or the cylinder diameter. It also depends little on whether correction is before or after reconstruction. At low background level, it changes with VOI size, but not at higher background. For a geometrical VOI, it is 1.25 at zero background, decreases sharply to 0.56 for equal concentrations, and is 0.44 when the background concentration is very large. Quantification is accurate (less than 9% error) if the test background is reasonably close to that used in setting the universal scatter-multiplier value, or if the test backgrounds are always large and so is the universal-value background, but not if the test backgrounds cover a large range of values including zero. Results largely agree with those from experiment after the experimental data with background is re-evaluated with prejudice.

Humans↗
PubMed1994

Risk of premenopausal breast cancer and use of electric blankets.

Electric blanket use, estimated to significantly increase background exposure to 60-Hz electromagnetic fields, has been hypothesized to increase breast cancer risk. From 1986 to 1991 in western New York State, the authors investigated the use of electric blankets as a risk factor for breast cancer in a case-control study of premenopausal women. A total of 290 premenopausal breast cancer cases and 289 age-matched randomly selected community controls were queried in regard to their use of electric blankets in the previous 10 years, including frequency of use in season and mode of use. After adjusting for age, education, and other risk factors, the odds ratio for use of an electric blanket at any time in the previous 10 years (40% of cases and 37% of controls) was 1.18 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.83-1.68). Estimates of risk did not differ in a dose-response fashion for number of years of electric blanket use. The risk associated with daily use in season relative to nonuse was 1.27 (95% CI 0.86-1.88). The risk of breast cancer among those who reported use of the blanket through the night was 1.43 (95% CI 0.94-2.17). However, the risk for those who reported daily use in season, continuously throughout the night for the previous 10 years was 1.10 (95% CI 0.59-2.05). These findings do not support the hypothesis that electric blanket use is associated with an increased risk for breast cancer. Studies with improved measures of more highly exposed individuals with quantification of total electromagnetic field exposure might clarify the uncertainties regarding risk of breast cancer associated with such exposure.

Adult↗
PubMed2004

Modelling the atmospheric fate and seasonality of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in the UK.

This paper presents the results from an exercise in atmospheric contaminant fate modelling, which had three main objectives: (1) to investigate the balance between estimated national atmospheric emissions of six selected PAHs and observed ambient measurements for the UK, as a means of testing the current emission estimates; (2) to investigate the potential influence of seasonally dependent environmental fate processes on the observed seasonality of air concentrations; and (3) after undertaking the first two objectives, to make inferences about the likely magnitude of seasonal differences in sources. When addressing objective 1 with annually averaged emissions data, it appeared that the UK PAH atmospheric emissions inventory was reasonably reliable for fluorene, fluoranthene, pyrene, benzo[a]pyrene and benzo[ghi]perylene--but not so for phenanthrene. However, more detailed analysis of the seasonality in environmental processes which may influence ambient levels, showed that the directions and/or magnitudes of the predicted seasonality did not coincide with field observations. This indicates either that our understanding of the environmental fate and behaviour of PAHs is still limited, and/or that there are uncertainties in the emissions inventories. It is suggested that better quantification of PAH sources is needed. For 3- and 4-ringed compounds, this should focus on those sources which increase with temperature, such as volatilisation from soil, water, vegetation and urban surfaces, and possible microbially-mediated formation mechanisms. The study also suggests that the contributions of inefficient, diffusive combustion processes (e.g. domestic coal/wood burning) may be underestimated as a source of the toxicologically significant higher molecular weight species in the winter. It is concluded that many signatory countries to the UNECE POPs protocol (which requires them to reduce national PAH emissions to 1990 levels) will experience difficulties in demonstrating compliance, because source inventories for 1990 and contemporary situations are clearly subject to major uncertainties.

Air Pollutants↗
PubMed2002

Probabilistic Boolean Networks: a rule-based uncertainty model for gene regulatory networks.

MOTIVATION: Our goal is to construct a model for genetic regulatory networks such that the model class: (i) incorporates rule-based dependencies between genes; (ii) allows the systematic study of global network dynamics; (iii) is able to cope with uncertainty, both in the data and the model selection; and (iv) permits the quantification of the relative influence and sensitivity of genes in their interactions with other genes. RESULTS: We introduce Probabilistic Boolean Networks (PBN) that share the appealing rule-based properties of Boolean networks, but are robust in the face of uncertainty. We show how the dynamics of these networks can be studied in the probabilistic context of Markov chains, with standard Boolean networks being special cases. Then, we discuss the relationship between PBNs and Bayesian networks--a family of graphical models that explicitly represent probabilistic relationships between variables. We show how probabilistic dependencies between a gene and its parent genes, constituting the basic building blocks of Bayesian networks, can be obtained from PBNs. Finally, we present methods for quantifying the influence of genes on other genes, within the context of PBNs. Examples illustrating the above concepts are presented throughout the paper.

Cell Cycle↗
PubMed2002

Determination of endocrine-disrupting pesticides and polychlorinated biphenyls in human serum by GC-ECD and GC-MS-MS and evaluation of contributions to the uncertainty of the results.

The chemicals endosulfan-alpha, endosulfan-beta, endosulfan sulfate, endosulfan ether, endosulfan lactone, PCB-21, PCB-48, PCB-61, and PCB-136 have been determined in 100 serum samples from women living in agricultural areas of Almería (Spain). The study includes a surgically treated breast cancer patient and a matching group of women with no sign of estrogenic-dependent disease. The determination was performed by gas chromatography with electron capture detection (GC-ECD) and tandem mass spectrometry (GC-MS-MS). Recovery, precision, linear range, detection limit (LOD), and quantification limit (LOQ) were calculated for each pesticide as was the expanded uncertainty (U). The method was evaluated for our laboratory and could be applied to subsequent results with relevant quality-control data. Comparison of the results was performed. The advantage of MS-MS over ECD for determination of endocrine-disrupting compounds in complex matrices is presented. The most commonly encountered pesticide was endosulfan-alpha. Endosulfan-beta and the PCB-48 congener were detected at concentrations lower than their LOQ. Endosulfan sulfate, endosulfan ether, endosulfan lactone, PCB-21, PCB-61 and PCB-136 were not found in any of the serum samples analysed.

Breast Neoplasms↗
PubMed2006

Application of the Rietveld method to assess chromium(VI) speciation in chromite ore processing residue.

The Rietveld method allows the quantification of crystalline phases and amorphous material identified by X-ray powder diffraction (XRPD) and other diffraction methods. The method assists in determining the speciation of contaminants in solid matrices both qualitatively and quantitatively in a statistically defensible approach, as it does not focus on a microscale. Rietveld was applied to chromite ore processing residue (COPR), a cementitious waste containing hexavalent chromium. Calcium aluminum chromium oxide hydrates (CACs) were the crystalline phases identified by XRPD that bind Cr(6+) in COPR according to their chemical formula. Rietveld quantification, combined with mass balances on Cr(6+), showed that CACs may bind Cr(6+) in variable percentages, ranging from 25% to 85%. Analysis of duplicate samples showed that material variability is the predominant factor of uncertainty in evaluating the role of CACs in Cr(6+) speciation, provided that a consistent quantification strategy is pursued. The choice of strategy was performed on the basis of the pertinent literature, preliminary analyses of the equipment and the software settings, and mass balances. The correlation between the average CAC-bound Cr(6+) concentration and the total Cr(6+) for five samples (R(2)=0.94), extracted from different zones and soil borings, suggests that CACs are a primary sink for Cr(6+) in COPR.

Aluminum Oxide↗
PubMed2003

Probabilistic framework for the estimation of the adult and child toxicokinetic intraspecies uncertainty factors.

Human health risk assessments use point values to develop risk estimates and thus impart a deterministic character to risk, which, by definition, is a probability phenomenon. The risk estimates are calculated based on individuals and then, using uncertainty factors (UFs), are extrapolated to the population that is characterized by variability. Regulatory agencies have recommended the quantification of the impact of variability in risk assessments through the application of probabilistic methods. In the present study, a framework that deals with the quantitative analysis of uncertainty (U) and variability (V) in target tissue dose in the population was developed by applying probabilistic analysis to physiologically-based toxicokinetic models. The mechanistic parameters that determine kinetics were described with probability density functions (PDFs). Since each PDF depicts the frequency of occurrence of all expected values of each parameter in the population, the combined effects of multiple sources of U/V were accounted for in the estimated distribution of tissue dose in the population, and a unified (adult and child) intraspecies toxicokinetic uncertainty factor UFH-TK was determined. The results show that the proposed framework accounts effectively for U/V in population toxicokinetics. The ratio of the 95th percentile to the 50th percentile of the annual average concentration of the chemical at the target tissue organ (i.e., the UFH-TK) varies with age. The ratio is equivalent to a unified intraspecies toxicokinetic UF, and it is one of the UFs by which the NOAEL can be divided to obtain the RfC/RfD. The 10-fold intraspecies UF is intended to account for uncertainty and variability in toxicokinetics (3.2x) and toxicodynamics (3.2x). This article deals exclusively with toxicokinetic component of UF. The framework provides an alternative to the default methodology and is advantageous in that the evaluation of toxicokinetic variability is based on the distribution of the effective target tissue dose, rather than applied dose. It allows for the replacement of the default adult and children intraspecies UF with toxicokinetic data-derived values and provides accurate chemical-specific estimates for their magnitude. It shows that proper application of probability and toxicokinetic theories can reduce uncertainties when establishing exposure limits for specific compounds and provide better assurance that established limits are adequately protective. It contributes to the development of a probabilistic noncancer risk assessment framework and will ultimately lead to the unification of cancer and noncancer risk assessment methodologies.

Adolescent↗
PubMed2004

Determination of organochlorine compounds in human biological samples by GC-MS/MS.

A study was undertaken to determine the extent of organochlorine pesticide (OP) and polychlorinated biphenyl (PCB) contamination in infant formula milk and in the human milk, fat and serum of women from an agricultural area in Southern Spain. A procedure is proposed that simultaneously detects trace levels of lindane, endosulfan-ether, vinclozolin, aldrin, endosulfan-lactone, endosulfan-alpha, 4,4'DDE, 2,4'DDT, endosulfan-beta, 4,4'DDT, kepone, endosulfate-sulfate, methoxychlor, mirex, 2,3,4 PCB, 2,2',4,5 PCB, 2,3,4,5 PCB and 2,2',3,3',6,6'PCB. After liquid-liquid or solid-liquid extraction, the extract of the sample was cleaned by high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) and the fi rst eluted fraction was analysed by gas chromatography (GC) with mass spectrometry (MS) detector in tandem mode. To evaluate the validity of the method the following parameters were studied: linearity, detection limits, quantification limits, specificity, percentage recovery and precision. A study of the uncertainty associated with the analytical method was also carried out.

Chromatography, High Pressure Liquid↗
PubMed2001

Monitoring of pesticides in drinking and related waters in NE Spain with a multiresidue SPE-GC-MS method including an estimation of the uncertainty of the analytical results.

A new method, developed in an EC project (SMT4-CT96-2142) for the determination of 22 pesticides in drinking and related waters, has been used to analyze source and drinking water samples in the area of Barcelona (NE Spain). The procedure includes solid-phase extraction of water and subsequent analysis by GC-MS using few selected ions (SIR) in order to increase their sensitivity. The method was subjected to intra and interlaboratory tests and met the requirements of the EC Directive in terms of accuracy, precision and detection limit (0.025 microg/l range in water samples). A detailed analysis of the uncertainty sources of this method is included, which allows to estimate expanded uncertainties in the 10-20% range. The dominant sources of uncertainty are the solid-phase extraction procedure and the chromatographic quantification. Two triazine compounds, simazine and atrazine, are the main pesticides detected in wells of the Llobregat river and in water of the Ter river, respectively.

Gas Chromatography-Mass Spectrometry↗
PubMed1995

Evaluation of the US pharmacopeia adsorption tests for activated charcoals and proposals for changes.

The current USP adsorption tests for activated charcoals, involving methylene blue (MB) and strychnine sulfate (SS), were conducted for 6 activated charcoals having surface areas ranging from 600 to 2000 m2/g. The MB test is relatively complex and tedious, and uses a pass/fail criterion which is of such small magnitude that substantial uncertainties are likely. The SS test is only qualitative. Modification, using quantification of the turbidities, permitted quantitative interpretation. The test was failed by 2 charcoals of surface area 660 m2/g or less, and was passed by 4 charcoals of 720 m2/g surface area or higher. Neither test was able to reflect the substantial drug adsorption differences which exist for charcoals of average, above average, and high surface areas. Alternative tests for MB and SS were developed and evaluated using 6 charcoals. These tests, which are proposed for consideration by the US Pharmacopeial Convention, are simpler and faster than the current tests and yield precise values for the percentages of the 2 compounds adsorbed. Moreover, they clearly reflect the wide differences in adsorption performance of charcoals having widely different surface areas. Minimum percent adsorption values that must be attained for a charcoal to qualify as "USP grade" are proposed for both alternative tests (these would not exclude any current USP grade charcoal). Performance classifications of charcoals into categories of Low, Average, Above Average, and High are also proposed for both tests. These are shown to correspond to surface area ranges of < 700, 700-950, 950-1200, and > 1200 m2/g, respectively.

Adsorption↗
PubMed2001

Automated quantification of mitral valve regurgitation based on normalized centerline velocity distribution.

Previous echocardiographic techniques for quantifying valvular regurgitation are limited by factors including uncertainties for orifice location and a hemispheric convergence assumption that often results in over- and underestimation of flow rate and regurgitant orifice area. Using computational fluid dynamics simulations, these factors were eliminated, allowing a more accurate assessment of regurgitation. A model was developed to allow automated quantification of regurgitant orifice diameter based on the centerline velocity data available from color M-mode echocardiography. The model, validated using in vitro unsteady flow data, demonstrated improved accuracy for orifice diameter (y=0.95x + 0.38, r=0.96) and volume (y=1.18x - 4.72, r=0.93).

Blood Flow Velocity↗
PubMed2004

Monitoring multi-class pesticide residues in fresh fruits and vegetables by liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry.

A new analytical method was developed using liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry for the routine analysis of 31 multi-class pesticide residues and applied to approximately 50 fresh fruit and vegetable samples (green bean, cucumber, pepper, tomato, eggplant, watermelon, melon and zucchini). Extraction of the pesticides with ethyl acetate was carried out. The optimal ionisation conditions were selected for each pesticide in the same run. The procedure was validated and the values of some merit figures, such as recovery, precision, linear range, detection limit and quantification limit for each pesticide were calculated together with its calculated expanded uncertainty (U). The average recoveries in cucumber obtained for each pesticide ranged between 74 and 105% at two different fortification levels (n = 10 each) that ranged between 9 and 250 ng g(-1) (depending on the pesticide). The uncertainty associated to the analytical method was lower than 23% for all compounds tested. The calculated limits of detection and quantitation were typically <1 ng g(-1) that were much lower than the maximum residue levels established by European legislation.

Capsicum↗
PubMed2001

Identification and quantification of major bovine milk proteins by liquid chromatography.

In the field of food quality, bovine milk products are of particular interest due to the social and economic importance of the dairy products market. However, the risk of fraudulent manipulation is high in this area, for instance, replacing milk powder by whey is very interesting from an economic point of view. Therefore, there is a need to have suitable analytical methods available for the determination of all milk components, which is currently not the case, especially for the main proteins. The detection of potential manipulations requires then a clear analytical characterisation of each type of bovine milk, what constitutes the goal of this work. The separation of the major milk proteinic components has been carried out by ion-pair reversed-phase HPLC with photodiode array detection, using a C4 column. The overall optimisation has been achieved using a statistical experimental design procedure. The identification of each protein was ascertained using retention times, peak area ratios and second derivative UV spectra. Quantification was based on calibration curves drawn using purified proteins. Major sources of uncertainty were identified and the full uncertainty budget was established. The procedure was initially developed using the skimmed milk powder certified reference material CRM 063R and then applied to various types of commercial milks as well as to raw milk. The method is able to separate and quantify the seven major proteins (K-casein, alphas2-casein, alphas1-casein, beta-casein, alpha-lactalbumin, beta-lactoglobulin B and beta-lactoglobulin A) in one run and also to provide precise determinations of the total protein concentration. These are important results towards the further development of a reference method for major proteins in milk. In addition, the use of a certified material reference is suggested in order to make comparisons of method performances possible.

Animals↗
PubMed2003

Estimation of the risk of hepatitis B virus, hepatitis C virus and human immunodeficiency virus infectious donations entering the blood supply in England, 1993-2001.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The frequency of hepatitis B virus (HBV), hepatitis C virus (HCV) or human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infectious donations entering the blood supply in England is too low to monitor using observational studies. The expected frequency of infectious donations can be estimated and these estimates may be used to contribute to monitoring of blood safety and used in the design of strategies to decrease the risk of transfusion-transmitted infections. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The prevalence and incidence of hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg), and antibodies to HCV and HIV (anti-HCV and anti-HIV, respectively) in donors in England, between 1993 and 2001, were used together with data about the length of negative 'window-periods' of current assays for each of these markers and data about test performance, to estimate the number of infectious donations that enter the blood supply. The risks were calculated separately for donations from new donors and from repeat donors, and for the three time periods 1993-95, 1996-98 and 1999-01. RESULTS: The estimated frequency of infectious donations entering the blood supply in England, between 1993 and 2001 was 1 in 260,000 for HBV and 1 in 8 million for HIV. For HCV, the frequency of infectious donations was 1 in 520,000 during 1993-98 and fell to 1 in 30 million during 1999-2001 when all donations were tested for HCV RNA. The frequency of HBV- and HCV-infectious donations entering the blood supply fell over these 9 years: the frequency of HIV-infectious donations remained essentially unchanged. The risk from donations from new donors was found to be approximately sevenfold higher than the risk from donations from repeat donors. CONCLUSIONS: The risks of HBV-, HCV- or HIV-infectious donations entering the blood supply in England are very low, and have decreased since 1993. Although the accuracy of these estimates is imperfect, mainly owing to uncertainty in some assumptions and to small numbers of infections, they provide some quantification of the risk of HBV, HCV or HIV transmission by transfusion, and allow comparison of the magnitude of these risks for each infection and over time. The methods we have used have been developed and improved from previously published methods.

Blood Donors↗
PubMed2004

Quantification and confirmation of flunixin in equine plasma by liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight tandem mass spectrometry.

The method describes quantification and confirmation of flunixin in equine plasma by liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry (LC/Q-TOF/MS/MS). Samples were screened by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) and only those samples presumptively declared positive were subjected to quantification and confirmation for the presence of flunixin by this method. The method is also readily adaptable to instrumental screening for the analyte. Flunixin was recovered from plasma by liquid-liquid extraction (LLE). The sample was diluted with 2 ml saturated phosphate buffer (pH 3.10) prior to LLE. The dried extract was reconstituted in acetonitrile:water:formic acid (50:50:0.1, v/v/v) and subsequently analyzed on a Q-TOF tandem mass spectrometer (Micromass) operated under electrospray ionization positive ion mode. The concentration of flunixin was determined by the internal standard (IS) calibration method using the peak area ratio with clonixin as the IS. The limits of detection (LOD) and quantification (LOQ) for flunixin in equine plasma were 0.1 and 1 ng/ml, respectively, whereas the limit of confirmation (LOC) was 2.5 ng/ml. The qualifying ions for the identification of flunixin were m/z 297 [M+H](+), 279 (BP), 264, 259, 239 and those for clonixin (IS) were m/z 263 [M+H](+), 245 (BP) and 210. The measurement uncertainty about the result was 8.7%. The method is simple, sensitive, robust and reliably fast in the quantification and confirmation of flunixin in equine plasma. Application of this method will assist racing authorities in the enforcement of tolerance plasma concentration of flunixin in the racehorse on race day.

Animals↗