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PubMed1998

Accounting for two population turnarounds in nonmetropolitan America.

"The turnaround [in U.S. rural-to-urban migration] of the 1970s, the metropolitan resurgence of the 1980s, and the rural rebound of the 1990s [have been] described as three unanticipated changes in migration.... [This chapter] compares the magnitude of the three changes in net migration and contrasts the two nonmetropolitan turnarounds.... The results support a view of the 1970s turnaround as the outcome of long-term deconcentrating trends that were interrupted from the late 1970s to the late 1980s by circumstances that favored metropolitan areas. The return of nonmetropolitan territory to net in-migration in the 1990s appears to be due in part to favorable economic conditions that allow more people to act on preferences for smaller places."

Americas↗
PubMed1982

Changing aged nonmetropolitan migration patterns, 1955 to 1960 and 1965 to 1970.

One type of population redistribution is discussed in this paper. It is the migration of older people between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations as it has occurred over two decades. Net migration studies have documented the metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan turnaround but have not been able to connect the origin with the destination of the individual migrants. Neither have they been able to examine the differences between interstate and intrastate migrants in this pattern. The dynamics of the process, therefore, has been left unexplored. The data used in this analysis came from the two most recent, available, 1-in-100 public use samples, one from the 1960 census and the other from the 1970 census. Only the records of persons aged 60 years and over in these samples were examined. The turnaround was again documented. It became clear, however, that interstate migration over the two decades came to dominate the pattern. What appeared from the marginals to be a turnaround among intrastate migrants resulted from decreased migration into metropolitan areas from nonmetropolitan locations. The metropolitan outflow did not change.

Aged↗
PubMed1994

The wax and wane of interstate migration patterns in the U.S.A. in the 1980s: a demographic effectiveness field perspective.

The author analyzes the structure of temporal changes in U.S. internal migration over the period 1980-1988 using data from matched income tax returns. "A number of hypotheses are explored about how in-migration and out-migration fields wax and wane, thereby giving rise to the overall shifts in demographic effectiveness measured over the period. The results highlight the characteristics of recent (1980-88) shifts in U.S. internal migration patterns including net migration reversals from strong net in-migration to strong net out-migration for states with significant energy sectors, the stanching of net out-migration from many states of the American manufacturing belt, the turnaround to net in-migration for all of northern New England, and the continuance of highly effective net in-migration to the sunbelt states of Florida, Arizona, and Nevada."

Americas↗
PubMed1988

Unravelling the population turnaround in rural Canada.

"This paper attempts to unravel the rural population turnaround in Canada through a disaggregation and analysis of rural growth rates by (1) two decades, 1961-71 and 1971-81, (2) the farm and non-farm components of rural population, (3) provincially based regions, and (4) area types based on proximity to urban centres. Following a discussion of the various definitional and boundary-matching issues arising from the use of the Census of Canada, results are presented in tabular and map form. Although rural growth rates did in all likelihood exceed urban rates in the 1970s, the extent of this turnaround is undoubtedly exaggerated in the census data, primarily because of definitional and reclassification effects. Moreover, setting aside data-related anomalies, there is strong evidence that much of this rural population growth was in fact 'spillover' from urban centres." (SUMMARY IN FRE)

Americas↗
PubMed1984

The changing structure of nonmetropolitan migration in the American Deep South.

"The United States and other post-industrial societies have recently undergone a form of population deconcentration characterized as rural-urban 'population turnaround'. This phenomenon may be attributed to changes in internal migration patterns. Explanations for such changes frequently imply that they have been accompanied by changes in the structure, or determinants, of migration. This study examines that thesis for a specific region, the American Deep South, for the 1950-1978 time period." The results suggest "that a structural transformation has occurred. During the 1950s, a decade of heavy net emigration, nonmetropolitan migration patterns were closely linked to the patterning of sustenance activity and metropolitan accessibility. By the 1970s, such linkages had weakened considerably. But this structural transformation can be detected in some parts of the region in the 1960s. Elsewhere, it still had not occurred in the 1970s."

Alabama↗
PubMed1990

The rural population turnaround: a case-study of North Devon.

The change from depopulation to population increase in the more remote rural areas of England is analyzed using data from a survey of 300 households in North Devon. The heterogeneous nature of the migrants and their reasons for migration are stressed. "The reasons for leaving the former area of residence tended to relate to lifestyle, personal or environmental factors whereas the reasons for choosing North Devon were more often about jobs and house prices. This complexity and diversity clearly makes difficult the quest for a single theory of the repopulation process."

Behavior↗
PubMed1987

A regional scale temporal analysis of the net migration patterns of elderly persons over time.

New England counties are grouped into categories using graphic displays of five decades of net migration rates for young and old elderly persons. Linear functions composed of social, economic, and geographic variables discriminate among the categories, yielding the following associations: positive rate counties are long-standing retirement and recreation areas; negative rate counties have large, old, declining cities; turnaround counties are nonmetropolitan counties with recently developed retirement/recreation facilities; miscellaneous counties include suburban counties with a temporary peak in net migration rates. The counties' patterns are relatively similar for young-old and old-old persons over the five decades.

Age Factors↗
PubMed1997

The "clean break" revisited: is U.S. population again deconcentrating?

"The Hoover index, calculated across counties and larger spatial units, is again declining--signalling a renewal of population deconcentration in the United States. After increasing for several decades, the index declined in the 1970s when nonmetropolitan population growth surged past metropolitan-area growth, but the index rose in the 1980s as metropolitan population growth recovered and surpassed nonmetropolitan growth. We update these trends, introducing careful controls for changes in metropolitan-area boundaries, and we incorporate a ¿functional urban region' approach. Although the nonmetropolitan population growth rate is still below the metropolitan rate, we conclude that in the 1990s some features of the ¿turnaround' of the 1970s have returned."

Americas↗
PubMed1995

"Dying villages", "counterurbanization" and the urban field--a Canadian perspective.

"This paper will review major theories on ¿rural-urban-turnaround' and the phenomenon of ¿dying villages'. It will then trace the evolution of one small settlement, Wroxeter, Ontario to describe and explain the factors that transformed it from the ¿most ghosted town in Ontario'...into a community experiencing both population growth and diversification in its economy. The Wroxeter experience will be evaluated against evidence from comparative case studies in the literature. Finally, conclusions from these studies will be weighted against those in contemporary studies of rural population turnaround, counterurbanization, rural renaissance, the urban field, and functional change in settlement systems. Idiographic findings at the local level will be compared with the conclusions of aggregate statistical studies and their nomothetic implications."

Americas↗
PubMed1990

What population turnaround? Some Canadian prairie settlement perspectives, 1971-1986.

The relevance of the concept of the population turnaround to the analysis of population trends in the Canadian Prairie Provinces between 1971 and 1986 is considered. "Throughout the whole period the trend to greater spatial concentration of the population has continued despite the possibility of greater dispersal. The terms population turnaround or counter-urbanization were found to be too general to summarize the varied changes in the 1970s.... In the 1980s more localized spatial trends are identified, with most places experiencing marginal growth and decline, thereby providing very different characteristics to the previous decade."

Americas↗
PubMed1984

Aged metropolitan-nonmetropolitan migration streams over three census decades.

One type of population redistribution is discussed in this paper. It is the migration of older people between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan locations as it has occurred over three decades. Both net migration and stream migration studies documented the metropolitan-to-nonmetropolitan turnaround between 1960 and 1970, but no three-decade trends have been established and thus the trend remains in doubt. The data used in this analysis came from the census microdata files, using the 1-in-100 samples in 1960 and 1970 and the 1-in-40 sample in 1980. Only the records of persons age 60 and over were examined. This analysis documents the continuation of the turnaround in 1980 among older migrants and pictures them as forerunners of larger migration trends. It also discusses the dynamics of the trend and some of the processes that may have brought it about and maintain it.

Data Collection↗
PubMed1985

The nonmetropolitan population turnaround.

From 1970-1980, US nonmetropolitan areas grew more rapidly than previously, achieving overall a faster growth rate than metropolitan areas, with more migrants going from metropolitan to nonmetropolian areas than in the opposite direction. This paper reviews the literature that has emerged in seeking to understand this new trend, which was contrary to expectations and became known as the nonmetropolitan turnaround. Work includes macroanalyses of changes in nonmetropolitan settlement structure, changes in the distribution of employment, migration streams and differentials, as well as research on residential preferences and migration decison making. This is a new trend in terms of population distribution processes, although evidence that it reflects a greater importance of noneconomic factors in migration is mixed. Nonmetropolitan growth slowed in the latter part of the 1970s and overall the turnaround reversed in the early 1980s, but a return to a generally concentrated settlement pattern appears unlikely. The amount of research accomplished over a short span of time as a consequence of the turnaround is noteworthy, and the findings have contributed to increased understanding of US population change.

Americas↗
PubMed1984

The evidence for urban turnaround in Norway.

"In Norway the post-war period has been characterised by centralisation of population--nationally, regionally and locally. In the mid-sixties the process slowed down and in the seventies the proportion of the population living in the nine urban regions declined. Only on the local level does the concentration process continue, but less drastically than before. With a significant exception, Gibbs' model of population concentration gives an adequate description of the changes."

Demography↗
PubMed1990

The relative impact of migration type on the reversal of black out-migration from the South.

"In this article historical patterns and recent trends in black migration in the United States are examined. The purpose of the article is two-fold: (1) to examine historical changes in the volume and rates of migration between the southern region and nonsouthern regions; and (2) to determine the relative impact of migration types on the South's changeover to net in-migration during the 1975-1980 migration interval.... The single most important factor influencing the turnaround was a decrease in the number of southern-born blacks migrating out of the region. This finding is contrary to much current speculation about the role of return migrants in influencing the South's changeover to net in-migration for the black population."

Black or African American↗
PubMed1988

The emergence of migration cycles?

"With a more thorough examination of population changes in the Tokyo region, this article confirms with regard to Japan the reconcentrating trend of urban population observed more clearly elsewhere by Cochrane and Vining (1988). Through an examination of the factors which led to the turnaround in the 1980s in Japan and elsewhere, it is argued that conservative economic policy, as manifested by deregulation and privatization, is the principal cause for reconcentration of urbanization in the 1980s in the economically advanced Western countries."

Asia↗
PubMed1989

[Population development in rural areas of the United States in the 1980s: turnaround of trends or continuity?].

"The article analyses the population growth in rural counties of the U.S.A. for 1970-80 and 1980-86. The growth rates are examined on different levels of aggregation (individual counties, subregions and regions) and in relation to several possible determinants of growth. The main objective of the study is to examine whether the growth patterns in the eighties support the hypothesis of a turnaround in the population development of rural areas.... The results reveal a diversity of growth patterns and significant regional differences. Rural counties within the daily urban system of a metropolitan area have significantly higher growth rates than peripheral rural counties. The results do not support the notion of a turnaround of long established trends. The trends in the eighties bear more resemblance to traditional growth patterns of rural areas." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Americas↗
PubMed1985

A process view of the population turnaround: an Australian rural case study.

"This paper provides empirical evidence of local-level demographic and socio-economic changes during the 'population turnaround' decade of 1970 to 1980. The study covers a contiguous area occupied by five small country towns and their trade areas, centred around 80-90 km north of Adelaide [Australia]. These communities were surveyed in detail in 1968 and 1970 in order to make forecasts of demographic change by 1980. In 1980, a replicatory resurvey provided data on various processes of population change operating at grass roots level."

Australia↗