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[[A dynamic model for populations reproduced by first marriage]].

Using data for Japan, the author analyzes "the effect of nuptiality and of marital fertility [on population trends and constructs] a population model in which childbearing occurs only within first marriage....First, we can prove that...we can construct a stable population theory based on nuptiality and marital fertility....Next..., we investigate the effect of [the age shift in first marriage patterns on total fertility rates], since delay of marriage has been thought to be one of [the] major causes for long-term fertility decline in Japan. We conclude that although [the age shift in first marriage patterns] could decrease Japanese fertility, its effect seems to be insufficient to induce such rapid fertility decline as is observed recently in Japan." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Factors↗

Childlessness, subfertility, and infertility in Tanzania.

This study examines the trends and variations in childlessness, subfertility, and infertility in Tanzania according to data from the 1973 National Demographic Survey and the 1991-92 Demographic and Health Survey. Between the surveys, the proportion of women older than 30 who were childless was found to have declined more than 60 percent, and the proportion with an open birth interval extending for longer than five years was reduced by 40 to 50 percent in each standard five-year age group from 20 to 39. Within Tanzania, both childlessness and infertility are higher among urban than rural residents, and a substantial range prevails across eight rural zones. Finally, evidence suggests that the decline in impaired fertility has been followed by an increase in the total fertility rate. The difficulties of implementing population policies that aim simultaneously to control population growth and to improve women's health are discussed.

Adolescent↗

Premarital fertility in rural South Africa: a challenge to existing population policy.

The age pattern of fertility in a rural area of South Africa under demographic surveillance (Agincourt subdistrict) was investigated over the 1992-97 period. The total fertility rate (TFR) averaged 3.3 births per woman of reproductive age over the period, a major drop from earlier estimates in the same area (6.0 births in 1970-74). Age-specific fertility rates showed an atypical bimodal pattern. They were decomposed into two components of similar magnitude: premarital fertility (among women aged 12-26) and marital fertility (among women aged 15-49). The decomposition revealed the two underlying modes: a mode of premarital fertility (among women aged 18-20) and a mode of marital fertility (among women aged 28-30). Premarital fertility accounted for 21 percent of all births and for 47 percent of births among women aged 12-26. This pattern of high premarital fertility appears to reflect a low incidence of contraceptive use before the first birth, especially among adolescents, a low prevalence of abortion, and a high contraceptive prevalence thereafter. This finding calls for a reorientation of the family planning policy, which until now has targeted married women and women who have been pregnant once, but has failed to address the contraceptive needs of young women before their first pregnancy, especially adolescents.

Adolescent↗

A randomized clinical trial to evaluate the clinical effects of split- versus single-dose human menopausal gonadotropins in an assisted reproductive technology program.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the effect of twice (split) versus once (single) daily administration of hMG on assisted reproductive technology (ART) cycle parameters. DESIGN: A randomized clinical trial. SETTING: Hospital-based academic ART program. PATIENTS: A total of 171 patients undergoing their initial ART cycle were enrolled. All patients received one of two hMG regimens and were excluded from the study if they were receiving medications other than leuprolide acetate (LA) and hMG for ovulation induction. INTERVENTIONS: Subjects were randomized to receive an initial dose of 300 IU/d of hMG in either split-dose (i.e., 150 IU twice daily) or single-dose fashion for four successive days after down-regulation with LA. Thereafter, their daily dose was individualized, maintaining a split-or single-dose schedule. All cycles were managed in accordance with our standard ART protocols. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Cancellation rate, total hMG requirements, number of days treated with hMG, E2 and P responses, oocyte yield and maturity, fertilization rate, total number of embryos, embryo quality, number of embryos transferred, implantation rate, clinical and ongoing-delivered pregnancy rates. RESULTS: Split-dose hMG administration resulted in a significantly higher implantation rate, but significantly lower normal and polyspermic fertilization rates than single-dose hMG administration. No significant differences were noted between the two dosage protocols with respect to the other outcome measures. CONCLUSIONS: Split-dose hMG administration may be associated with significantly higher implantation rates; single-dose hMG with significantly higher fertilization rates. Although our data also demonstrate a trend toward higher clinical and ongoing-delivered pregnancy rates with split-dose therapy, demonstration of a significant difference would require a multicenter trial. Based on our data, clinicians may want to consider split-dose therapy for patients with repeated implantation failures.

Adult↗

Effect of socioeconomic characteristics on age at marriage and total fertility in Nepal.

In societies where childbearing prior to marriage is not socially acceptable, postponement of marriage contributes significantly to a reduction in fertility level by shortening the total reproductive life of women. This, in turn, reduces the number of children a woman is likely to have and has a negative impact on the population growth rate of a country. This paper examined the effect of socioeconomic characteristics on age at marriage and on total fertility rates in Nepal using a household-level dataset. The estimated results showed that an increase in age at marriage significantly reduced total fertility of women. An increase in the number of children who died had a statistically significant effect on total fertility (child replacement effect). The estimation results also emphasized the role of female education in reducing total fertility and increasing age at marriage. Moreover, female educational effect had a strong inter-generational effect on age at marriage, and this effect was stronger than the effect of male educational attainment. One implication of these results is that from the policy point of view, all other things being equal, governments should accord a significant priority to female education and, in particular, a higher priority compared to male schooling.

Adolescent↗

Modified sperm stress test: a simple assay that predicts sperm-related abnormal in-vitro fertilization.

Loss of sperm motility is associated with the process of sperm senescence and occurs at different rates within a given normal or abnormal sperm population. Reactive oxygen species attack cell membrane phospholipids, generating fatty acid peroxides and other degradation products, that also have deleterious effects on sperm motility and fertilizing ability. The objective of this investigation was to study a modification of the original sperm stress test (MOST), changing the culture medium to one offering transitional metals and shortening the total test time, to ascertain whether it can predict fertilization under these laboratory conditions. A total of 41 semen samples was obtained from patients undergoing in-vitro fertilization (IVF) at our institution. Semen samples were grouped into those producing total fertilization rates (FR) within normal limits (>50%) and those showing low total FR (<50%). The normal FR group had a significantly greater MOST mean value than the low FR group (0.71 versus 0.44). Furthermore, there was a statistically significant correlation between the MOST score and ungrouped fertilization rates (r = 0.53, P = 0.0004). Diagnostic statistics for MOST ratio values predicting <50% FR showed an optimal threshold of 0.39. Collectively, sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value have their largest values at this threshold. Taking into account the above mentioned threshold figures, there is a significant association between MOST and FR categories (P = 0.0009). In conclusion, MOST is a simple assay that has significant predictive value for sperm related IVF abnormalities.

Adult↗

Tunisia WFS [World Fertility Survey].

Tunisia, the smallest North African country in size, has recently published the results of its part of the World Fertility Survey (WFS) taken in 1978. About 1/2 of this Missouri-sized country consists of arid and semiarid desert, with well-irrigated fertile areas in the north. The country, which has a population of about 7 million, must import large quantities of food each year and also suffers from widespread unemployment. In 1964, the government was among the earliest to announce a policy to reduce the rate of population growth and Tunisia now has 1 of the lowest birth rates of the African continent (33 births/1000 population) although it is still moderately high. Part of the reason for the birth rate decline has been a risking age at marriage; the legal minimum was fixed at 17 years for women and 20 for men by a 1964 law. The Tunisia WFS indicates that, of women 20-24 in 1978, 56% had not yet married, a large increase from the 27% of 1966. The mean age at 1st marriage for females was 24 in 1978, very high by less developed country standards. It may be that the fertility-lowering impetus from rising age at marriage has been spent (this measure cannot rise indefinitely): Tunisia's total fertility rate (TFR), the average number of children/woman, dropped from 7.1 children in 1966 to 5.7 in 1976, but the decrease has tapered off somewhat since. The TFR appears to have dropped to 5.2 as of 1981. When asked how many children they would like to have, the women surveyed gave 4.2 children, on average, as their "ideal" number. This number is, of course, considerably above that needed to ultimately stop population growth (about 2.1-2.5 children/woman). Contraceptive use in Tunisia is quite high by developing country standards; much of this is due to the efficient network of government-sponsored clinics. About 44% of the women exposed to pregnancy were practicing an efficient form of family planning with the pill or sterilization accounting for most of that number (22 and 20% respectively). Nonetheless, traditions which still favor 3-5 children and some possible loss of momentum from a rising age at marriage may cause future fertility declines to be slower than in the recent past. Tunisia does present an interesting case of a country maintaining a government program to reduce population growth as an overall part of the country's development efforts.

Africa↗

Birth statistics 1993.

The key birth statistics for 1993, in Table E of the Annual Review on page 7 of this volume, show that: The total number of live births fell for the third consecutive year and was 673 thousand in 1993, 2 per cent fewer than in 1992, and the lowest annual total since 1986. The number of women in reproductive ages changed only marginally, so that the crude birth rate (CBR), the general fertility rate (GFR) and total period fertility rate (TPFR) each decreased. The TPFR was 1.76 in 1993, 2 per cent lower than in 1992. The mean age of women at childbirth continued to rise, and reached 28.1 years. The proportion of births outside marriage increased by a further 1 per cent between 1992 and 1993, to reach 32.2 per cent. There were 105.6 male births for every 100 female births--a higher ratio than in 1992.

Adult↗

Census-derived estimates of fertility by duration since first marriage in the Republic of Korea.

This paper estimates ever-married birth rates by age and duration since first marriage and ever-married total fertility rates for the Republic of Korea, derived by applying an extension of the own-children method of fertility estimation to the 1975 and 1980 censuses. Since each census provides annual estimates for the 15-year period previous to enumeration, there is a ten-year period of overlapping estimates that facilitates checks for consistency and accuracy. Comparisons are also made with estimates derived from the 1974 Korea National Fertility Survey, which was part of the World Fertility Survey. The method works well, except in its application to the 1975 Census where the evidence suggests considerable misreporting of age at first marriage because of the way the question was asked and coded. Results confirm that ever-married fertility fell substantially in Korea between 1961 and 1980, with a temporary resurgence in the late 1960s and early 1970s. Ever-married fertility rose at younger ages and shorter durations and fell at older ages and longer durations. Ever-married fertility differentials by urban-rural residence and by education were usually in the expected direction, with urban fertility generally lower than rural fertility and the fertility of those with more education usually lower than the fertility of those with less education. Differential ever-married fertility by urban-rural residence and education declined over the estimation period.

Adolescent↗

[Clinical experience with assisted reproductive technology along the development of micro fertilization].

In 1993 we had the first success of micro fertilization in our clinic. The method by partial opening of oocyte zona pellucida initially used achieved a fertilization rate per egg of only 26.7%. Although transfer of sperm under the zona raised the fertilization rate to 39.2%, the new method involved problems such as polyspermy, which represented approximately 30% of the total fertilization rate. In addition, use of this method was limited to patients meeting several conditions. In 1994, we had a successful case of pregnancy after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI). The ICSI method resulted in a fertilization rate of about 70%, and has solved the problem of polyspermy. Fertilization of eggs has become possible using immotile sperm, and the technique of microsurgical epididymal sperm aspiration (MESA) and testicular sperm extraction (TESE) has been established. Clinical data have confirmed that a fertilization rate by frozen sperms is not lower than that by fresh sperms. Sperm can be stored frozen after MESA or TESE and therefore are surely available when needed, allowing to avoid spoiling retrieved eggs. No difference in fertilization rate was found between conditions needing micro fertilization or sperm recovery methods. No difference in pregnancy rate was shown between treatment cycles. Recent reports show improved pregnancy rates using techniques such as transferring a frozen embryo after endometrical adjustment. Further development in assisted reproductive technology is anticipated.

Female↗

Trends in birth and fertility rates, Canada, 1921-1987.

This paper examines Canadian birth data from 1921 to 1987. Generally, birth and fertility rates have been declining since the baby boom of the 1940s and 1950s. Since 1972, Canada's total fertility rate has remained below the replacement level of 2.1, paralleling trends in the United States and other Western countries. From 1971 to 1987, the median age of mothers increased by two years for all births, and about three years each for first and second births. Changes in rates by province and by age are also examined.

Adolescent↗

[Impact of voluntary pregnancy termination on fertility in Catalonia].

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this study are to describe the recent evolution of fertility since 1975 and of the abortions since 1987, and to evaluate the effect of abortions in the total fertility in Catalonia (Spain) in 1993. METHODS: Data were obtained from abortion register and live births from Instituto Nacional de Estadistica and from Institut d'Estadistica de Catalunya. Total fertility rate (TFR), modal age at childbearing (MACH) and average age at childbearing (AHUSE), both total and at first pregnancy were estimated using the number of live births, abortions and known pregnancies. RESULTS: Fertility in Catalonia has decreased between 1975 and 1993 from 2.73 to 1.20 children per woman. In this period the mean age at childbearing has also been delayed from 28.3 to 29.8 years. The number of abortions have increased since their legalization in 1987, being currently near to 10,000 per year. For every six births one abortion is informed, being the ratio 2 to 1 in women younger than 20 years old. The TFG estimated for 74 the known pregnancies increases from 1.20 to 1.41 children per woman, and MACH is 3 months younger. CONCLUSIONS: Induced abortion has not shown a relevant weight to explain the low fertility rate in Catalonia in 1993.

Abortion, Legal↗

Analysis of factors contributing to fertility decline in Korea.

With the successful Korean national family planning program and rapid socioeconomic advancement since 1962, the contraceptive prevalence rate has risen from 9% in 1964 to 79% in 1991, with the corresponding total fertility rate (TFR) going from 6.0 in 1960 to 1.6 in 1988, which is considerably below the replacement fertility rate. The main purpose of this study is, therefore, to identify the structural and causal factors that contributed to the fall in fertility over the last 3 decades, in an effort to formulate future population policy directions and strategies. The 2 methods used for the study were: the standardization approach to examine the structural factors on fertility decline, and the bongaarts model to measure the effects of the proximate variables in the fertility decline. The study indicated that the fall in the crude birth rate and the general fertility rate for the periods of 1960-70 and 1980-90 were largely influenced by the decline in marital fertility which was triggered by the national family planning program initiated in 1962. The analysis based on the bongaarts model revealed that the 3 principal factors which exercised a strong influence on the fertility decline were the rise in age at marriage, the increase in induced abortion, and the increase in contraceptive use, but the influence of induced abortion has been decreasing in recent years. In general, the study results suggest that the main concerns of the national family planning program should be shifted from the past quantitative approach with emphasis on fertility reduction to a qualitative approach which stresses maternal and child health and other public health programs.

Abortion, Induced↗

The appearance of one-pronuclear human oocytes is associated with a better ovulation-induction response and successful pregnancy outcome.

OBJECTIVE: To study the relationship between the presence of one-pronuclear oocytes in in vitro fertilization (IVF) patients and ovulation-induction response, oocyte and embryo development, and clinical outcome. DESIGN: Retrospective analysis of 535 consecutive IVF retrievals. Retrievals in which one or more oocytes exhibited one pronucleus were compared with retrievals in which no one-pronuclear oocytes (control) were observed. The following one-pronuclear versus control subgroups were also examined: leuprolide acetate/human menopausal gonadotropin (LA/hMG) ovulation inductions, high estradiol (E2) response cases, and retrievals in which a large number of oocytes (greater than or equal to 15) were recovered. SETTING: Brigham and Women's Hospital, a tertiary care, university-affiliated hospital. PATIENTS: Three hundred forty-six IVF patients were treated between January 1989 and May 1991. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Parameters examined included E2 concentration and number of follicles with maximum diameter greater than or equal to 12 mm on day of human chorionic gonadotropin administration; number of total and mature oocytes retrieved; total fertilization rates; number of embryos; and percent per retrieval of embryo transfers (ETs), clinical pregnancies, and ongoing-livebirths. RESULTS: The one-pronuclear patients had higher E2 levels and larger number of follicles, yielded significantly more total and mature oocytes, had a higher overall fertilization rate, produced more embryos, and had higher ET, clinical pregnancy and ongoing-livebirth rates per retrieval than did the control patients. Analysis of the subgroup populations revealed no significant differences in the majority of the main outcome measures studied; however, the one-pronuclear patients yielded significantly more total and mature oocytes per retrieval. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was an increase in the clinical and ongoing-livebirth pregnancy rates (PRs) in one-pronuclear patients, this was probably associated with an improved ovulation-induction response in the one-pronuclear patients. They achieved significantly higher E2 levels, recruited a larger number of follicles, and yielded more oocytes and embryos per retrieval than the control patients. When only the LA/hMG, E2 greater than or equal to 1,500 pg/mL, or the greater than or equal to 15 oocytes/case retrievals were analyzed, the PRs were no longer different; however, the one-pronuclear patients still yielded significantly more total and mature oocytes per retrieval than the controls. Therefore, the appearance of one-pronuclear oocytes is probably associated with the maturation stage of the oocytes obtained and is indicative of an ovulation induction in which a large number of preovulatory, metaphase II oocytes have been recruited.

Cell Nucleus↗

An alternative stochastic framework for estimating pure measures of fertility.

A stochastic fertility model is developed that incorporates a state of "viable pregnancy" within parity i. This model is used as a framework to derive formulas expressing relationships between various central rates and probabilities within parity i. Specifically, formulas are derived to relate the total fertility rate with the parity progression probability, a pregnancy rate with a pregnancy progression probability, and a direct fertility rate with a direct parity progression probability.

Female↗

Fertility and perinatal health among Finnish immigrants in Sweden.

Several studies have reported poorer infant outcome among immigrants, but contrary evidence also exists. Between 1940 and 1999 more than a half million Finns emigrated to Sweden, which made Finns the largest minority group in Sweden. Our aim was to investigate fertility trends, parturients' background and pregnancy outcomes among Finns in Sweden, and to compare the findings with those obtained among Swedes in Sweden and Finns in Finland. The data came from the Finnish and Swedish Medical Birth Registers for the years 1987-1998. All deliveries by women born in Finland and having given birth in Sweden (N=33874) were compared with a 10% sample of all deliveries by Swedish parturients in Sweden (N=108549) and of all Finnish deliveries (n=75133). Among Finns in Sweden, the number of live births per 1000 women aged 15-49 years declined significantly in the late 1990s. The change in the total fertility rate was less dramatic: the rate for Finns in Sweden followed the total Swedish rate although it remained from 5% to 10% higher up to the mid-1990s. Finns who had given birth in Sweden were older, had a higher parity and a higher prevalence of previous miscarriages, and smoked more often than did Swedes in Sweden or Finns in Finland. The crude infant outcomes of Finns having given birth in Sweden were equal to those among Swedes in Sweden (except for the incidence of small for gestational age), but poorer than in Finland. Biological factors explained the differences between Finns in Sweden and Finland in being small for gestational age, and biological factors and smoking explained the difference in prematurity. The difference in low birth weight remained statistically significant (3.9% versus 3.6% among singletons). In conclusion, fertility trends followed the pattern prevailing in the resident country. The relatively good outcome of children whose mothers were born in Finland but who had given birth in Sweden can partly be explained by the healthy migrant effect.

Adolescent↗

Annual fertility rates from Census data on own children: comparisons with vital statistics data for the United States.

This paper begins by describing the procedure and data requirements for calculating annual fertility rates from census data on own children. Then, using data from the United States Censuses of 1960 and 1970, fully adjusted estimates are presented and compared with recorded vital statistics rates. Total fertility estimates derived from own children data for whites average less than two percent lower than the recorded rates- a difference that can be attributed partially to the fact that the estimates are adjusted for net census undercount but the recorded rates are not. Even without adjustments for mortality, children not living with their mothers, and net census undercount, the own children data estimates accurately replicate recorded trends (even though the levels are misspecified). The utility of own children data for the study of differential fertility is discussed.

Adolescent↗

Focus on women in Cambodia.

Dr. Mam Bunheng, Undersecretary of State for Health, Cambodia, provided an overview of the health situation of women and children in Cambodia during a visit to JOICFP on December 8. He also expressed his country's desire to seek collaboration with JOICFP in the future. Providing background on the maternal and child health (MCH) system in Cambodia, Mam explained that the birth-spacing program is an integral part of the MCH activities and is primarily aimed at ensuring the health of women. Cambodia, which has a population of about 10 million people, presently has a high maternal mortality rate of 500/100,000 deliveries. Noting that the country also has a high total fertility rate of about 5.1, Mam emphasized that the government's birth spacing program is not aimed at controlling the population, but rather to ensure balanced development and population growth with the ultimate goal of guaranteeing the health of women. Cambodia also has a high infant mortality rate of 113/1000 live births. Mam explained that lack of access to services, supplies, and trained personnel hamper efforts to promote birth spacing. To overcome these obstacles, Cambodia needs support to develop human resources and to ensure supplies of basic medical equipment and essential drugs. Specifically, Mam stressed the need to train and retrain health staff to ensure adequate staffing at the community level. At present, the total number is insufficient, he said. While in Japan, Mam visited many health facilities as part of JICA's technical cooperation program and was impressed most with the quality services and facilities of the public health center.

Asia↗