[Basic concepts in statistics. II. Populations].
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Statistical methods have been proposed to detect recent bottlenecks on the basis of genetic characterizations of natural populations. In the absence of direct estimates of contemporary or historical population numbers, we tested the indirect M-ratio method based on microsatellite motif size frequency profiles using three historical and three contemporary Great Lakes populations of Salvelinus namaysuch for which severe reductions in population numbers are documented. Simulations employing plausible ranges of empirical population parameter values were used to explore bottleneck likelihood surfaces. We show that single values of the M-ratio are not sufficient to unambiguously infer a bottleneck without knowledge of mutation rates and effective population size (i.e., 4Ne mu or [symbol: see text]). Inferences of the degree of population bottleneck would be best supported if analyses were conducted across plausible ranges of [symbol: see text] and by qualitative comparisons among population samples.
BACKGROUND: Australian epidemiologists have recognised that lay readers have difficulty understanding statistical graphs in reports on population health. This study aimed to provide evidence for graph design improvements that increase comprehension by non-experts. METHODS: This was a double-blind, randomised, controlled trial of graph-design interventions, conducted as a postal survey. Control and intervention participants were randomly selected from telephone directories of health system employees. Eligible participants were on duty at the listed location during the study period. Controls received a booklet of 12 graphs from original publications, and intervention participants received a booklet of the same graphs with design modifications. A questionnaire with 39 interpretation tasks was included with the booklet. Interventions were assessed using the ratio of the prevalence of correct responses given by the intervention group to those given by the control group for each task. RESULTS: The response rate from 543 eligible participants (261 intervention and 282 control) was 67%. The prevalence of correct answers in the control group ranged from 13% for a task requiring knowledge of an acronym to 97% for a task identifying the largest category in a pie chart. Interventions producing the greatest improvement in comprehension were: changing a pie chart to a bar graph (3.6-fold increase in correct point reading), changing the y axis of a graph so that the upward direction represented an increase (2.9-fold increase in correct judgement of trend direction), a footnote to explain an acronym (2.5-fold increase in knowledge of the acronym), and matching the y axis range of two adjacent graphs (two-fold increase in correct comparison of the relative difference in prevalence between two population subgroups). CONCLUSION: Profound population health messages can be lost through use of overly technical language and unfamiliar statistical measures. In our study, most participants did not understand age standardisation and confidence intervals. Inventive approaches are required to address this problem.
Statistical data related to analysis of emergency care in Russian Federation and its subjects is presented. By the example of city of Tver calculation data on requirements in emergency and acute medical care to urban population is given. Capacity of acute medical care is determined including rate of emergency calls which, depending of reception time, can be transfered to general practitioner.
Statistics on the community level have revealed an increased mortality from cardiovascular diseases, especially stroke, among women in the community of Strömstad situated in the northern part of the County of Göteborg and Bohus near the Norwegian border. Based on prevalence data from a population study in Strömstad, to which all women aged 45-64 were invited and 86% attended, it was, however, concluded that history of cardiovascular diseases including stroke were not more common in Strömstad than in Gothenburg and Copenhagen. Traditionally accepted risk factors could not explain an increased mortality from these diseases in Strömstad, as these factors did not differ between Strömstad and a number of other communities, with which Strömstad was compared. It seems reasonable also to take other factors into consideration in order to explain the increased mortality, e.g. socio-economic factors and softness of the drinking water.
Statistics of 881 British Army male non-operational deaths between 1980 and 1984 were analysed and comparisons made with civilian mortality for certain categories of deaths. Disease accounted for 32% and injury for 68% of the deaths. Road traffic accidents (RTAs) comprised 40% and ischaemic heart disease (IHD) 13% of the total. The overall Standardised Mortality Ratio (SMR) was 92. By comparison with the UK civil population serving members of the Regular Army suffered considerably less from disease deaths (SMR 58) with the exception of IHD (SMR 92), but more from injury deaths (SMR 135). RTA deaths had an SMR of 200. The review suggests that attention should be directed towards incidents causing RTAs and drowning. Action taken in peace may have relevance to survival on operations.
Statistical analysis of intraocular pressure was conducted on approximately 200,000 healthy subjects who were examined at the Aichi Prefectural Center of Health Care in Nagoya, Japan, during the last decade. The IOP was estimated with either Schl øtz or noncontact tonometers, which consistently showed a decreasing tendency of IOP with age in both sexes. Multivariate analysis on systemic values disclosed that obesity, systolic BP, and age were the most influential factors of IOP. Stratification of the sample by systolic BP, obesity index, and age indicated that young, obese, and hypertensive subjects had the highest IOP, while old, lean, and hypotensive subjects showed the lowest IOP. It was confirmed that the IOP is physiologically maintained by a counterbalance between the IOP-lowering effect of age and the IOP-raising effects of obesity and systolic hypertension, which are largely age dependent.
Statistics suggest that the adolescents have a higher rate of diagnosis of pelvic inflammatory disease than any other age group. Early recognition improves the chances of preventing the long-term consequences of ectopic pregnancy and tubal infertility. For a significant number of teens, the symptoms are mild or vague, requiring a high index of suspicion by the physician to initiate treatment. The purpose of this article is to review the currently accepted guidelines for diagnosis and management of pelvic inflammatory disease in the adolescent patient.
Statistical modeling and forecasting of morbidity, disability and mortality of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children of Ryazan oblast was organized. Procedures of expotential smoothing and determination of statistical significance power of predicted values were applied. Application of expotential smoothing models with linear trend enables reliable forecasting of morbidity of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children. In Ryazan oblast, disability and mortality of children has higher variance which prevent to apply reliable forecasting. Increase in morbidity and disability rate of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies and widening of dispensary group is detected. Predicted increasing of morbidity rate of cardiovascular pathology in children and widening of corresponding dispensary group requires enhanced capacity of medical care supported by according financing.
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BACKGROUND: MicroRNAs are approximately 17-24 nt. noncoding RNAs found in all eukaryotes that degrade messenger RNAs via RNA interference (if they bind in a perfect or near-perfect complementarity to the target mRNA), or arrest translation (if the binding is imperfect). Several microRNA targets have been identified in lower organisms, but only one mammalian microRNA target has yet been validated experimentally. RESULTS: We carried out a population-wide statistical analysis of how human microRNAs interact complementarily with human mRNAs, looking for characteristics that differ significantly as compared with scrambled control sequences. These characteristics were used to identify a set of 71 outlier mRNAs unlikely to have been hit by chance. Unlike the case in C. elegans and Drosophila, many human microRNAs exhibited long exact matches (10 or more bases in a row), up to and including perfect target complementarity. Human microRNAs hit outlier mRNAs within the protein coding region about 2/3 of the time. And, the stretches of perfect complementarity within microRNA hits onto outlier mRNAs were not biased near the 5'-end of the microRNA. In several cases, an individual microRNA hit multiple mRNAs that belonged to the same functional class. CONCLUSIONS: The analysis supports the notion that sequence complementarity is the basis by which microRNAs recognize their biological targets, but raises the possibility that human microRNA-mRNA target interactions follow different rules than have been previously characterized in Drosophila and C. elegans.
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The author examines some of the definitions that have been used to define the working population in France. "The working population resulting from censuses and related statistical sources is based on individuals' spontaneous statements. Its content does not match up exactly with the working population defined by the ILO, which seeks to estimate the labour force available for production. Therefore, certain categories such as ¿discouraged male job-seekers' (160,000 in March 1995), ¿revealed female job-seekers' (housewives who would prefer to work) (130,000) and ¿trainees' (120,000) are considered by the census definition to be in the working population, but are deemed unoccupied by the ILO definition." The author stresses the need to clarify and limit the statistical categories used, so that better forecasts of the future working population can be prepared and the prospects for drawing international comparisons and conducting behavioral analyses can be increased. (SUMMARY IN ENG AND GER AND SPA)
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Neuronal information processing is often studied on the basis of spiking patterns. The relevant statistics such as firing rates calculated with the peri-stimulus time histogram are obtained by averaging spiking patterns over many experimental runs. However, animals should respond to one experimental stimulation in real situations, and what is available to the brain is not the trial statistics but the population statistics. Consequently, physiological ergodicity, namely, the consistency between trial averaging and population averaging, is implicitly assumed in the data analyses, although it does not trivially hold true. In this letter, we investigate how characteristics of noisy neural network models, such as single neuron properties, external stimuli, and synaptic inputs, affect the statistics of firing patterns. In particular, we show that how high membrane potential sensitivity to input fluctuations, inability of neurons to remember past inputs, external stimuli with large variability and temporally separated peaks, and relatively few contributions of synaptic inputs result in spike trains that are reproducible over many trials. The reproducibility of spike trains and synchronous firing are contrasted and related to the ergodicity issue. Several numerical calculations with neural network examples are carried out to support the theoretical results.
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Several recent studies (animal and human) have suggested an association between lung cancer and silica exposure. To test the hypothesis, we have studied death benefit records of 1,905 members of the Granite Cutters Union. A proportionate mortality analysis (PMR) was conducted, using U.S. deaths as a comparison population. Statistically (PMR) was conducted, using U.S. deaths as a comparison population. Statistically significant excesses were observed for death from nonmalignant respiratory significant excesses were observed for death from nonmalignant respiratory disease (largely silicosis) (183 obs, 43.7 exp) and for tuberculosis (largely silicotuberculosis) (262 obs, 19.3 exp). Other significant excesses were observed for bone cancer (6 obs, 1.9 exp) and arthritis (5 obs, 1.5 exp). A significant decrease was observed for leukemia (5 obs, 13.0 exp). For lung cancer a slight but nonsignificant excess was observed (97 obs, 81.1 exp, PMR = 1.19, 95% CI 0.97-1.46). A proportionate cancer mortality analysis (PCMR) showed similar results for lung cancer (PCMR = 1.09, 95% CI 0.89-1.33). Lung cancer mortality also failed to show any trend with either calendar time or duration of exposure. Although no significant excess of lung cancer was observed for the entire silica-exposed cohort, there was an indication that those who were silicotic had an excess risk of lung cancer, based on a review of contributing causes on the death certificate.