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Long-term studies of all types of primary glomerulonephritis (GN) taking into consideration the major morphological and clinical findings revealed the following: 1) Endocapillary GN, post-streptococcal type has a very good prognosis when only glomerulitis is present. The prognosis is significantly worse if either interstitial inflammation with fibrosis or nephrotic syndrome (NS) is present at the time of the biopsy. 2) The prognosis of the various types of mesangioproliferative GN (IgA nephritis, non-IgA nephritis, and immunohistologically negative GN) is very good if there is only glomerulitis. The prognosis is worse for all three types when the renal cortical interstitium exhibits inflammation with fibrosis at the time of the biopsy, and is worst of all when both interstitial fibrosis (IF) and the signs of acute renal failure (ARF) are present. Of this group, the type in which there are negative immunohistological findings exhibits the best prognosis. No difference in prognosis is found between IgA nephritis and non-IgA nephritis. 3) Minimal changes GN with NS has a very good prognosis when the interstitium is not involved. The presence of interstitial inflammation and fibrosis worsens the prognosis significantly. 4) Focal sclerosing GN has a much poorer prognosis than minimal changes GN with NS, even when there is glomerulitis only (5- and 10-year renal survival rates (RSRs) of 90% and 67%, respectively). If interstitial inflammation and fibrosis are present, the prognosis is significantly worse (5- and 10-year RSRs of 84% and 55%, respectively). The prognosis is worst when both ARF and IF are present at the time of the biopsy (5- and 10-year RSRs of 56% and 46%, respectively). From the clinical side, the prognosis is significantly worse if, at the time of the biopsy, NS is present or the serum creatinine concentration is elevated to more than 1.3 mg%. 5) Chronic membranous GN has a better prognosis than focal sclerosing GN if glomerulitis only is present (5-year RSR, 88%; 10-year RSR, 77%). If the renal cortical interstitium is also involved (in the form of IF), the prognosis is significantly worse (5-year RSR, 65%; 10-year RSR, 38%). The prognosis in this disease, too, is worst when both ARF and IF are present at the time of the biopsy (5-year RSR, 38%; 10-year RSR, 25%). 6) Membranoproliferative GN has a worse prognosis than any of the types of GN so far mentioned (5-year RSR, 51%; 10-year RSR, 32%).(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)
GOALS: There is considerable debate concerning prognosis in patients with advanced cancer (advanced cancer patients, ACP), but no one has systematically examined the relationship between awareness of prognosis and hopefulness. In this study, the relationships among awareness of prognosis, hopefulness, and coping were examined in a selected group of ACP. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All subjects were enrolled in phase I trials. Information was obtained from subjects via structured, face-to-face interviews. Subjects provided demographic information, answered questions designed to ascertain their awareness of their prognosis, and completed the Functional Assessment of Cancer Therapy-General instrument (FACT-G). RESULTS: A total of 179 consecutive subjects enrolled in phase I trials were interviewed. Awareness of prognosis was assessed using a semiquantitative scale. Willingness to provide responses to the question was significantly negatively correlated with hopefulness ( r=-0.306, P=0.030). Using items from the FACT-G, hopefulness and coping were positively correlated ( r=0.140, P=0.097). Female subjects were more realistic about their prognosis than men ( b=0.568, P=0.026). More educated patients had higher response rates to the prognosis questions (OR 1.62, P<0.001), and demonstrated a more realistic awareness of prognosis ( b=0.225, P=0.030). Overall, there was a strong association between coping status and responding to the prognosis questions ( P=0.033). Patients who reported being "not at all proud of coping" had a lower response rate than patients who reported better coping. DISCUSSION: Among the ACP who provided responses, many reported an unrealistic view of their prognosis. Having a more accurate view of prognosis in the face of terminal illness was associated with reduced hopefulness, which may be related to a poorer sense of coping. Finally, the prognosis question utilized in the study was problematic, led to a fairly poor response rate, and may be indicative of the many difficulties present in attempting to accurately assess ACPs' perceptions of their prognosis. Other methods, such as in-depth qualitative methods, may lead to more productive inquiry into ACPs' awareness of their prognosis. Further research into the accurate assessment of awareness of prognosis is needed.
BACKGROUND: The relative roles of surgical resection, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy in the management of patients with intracranial nongerminomatous malignant germ cell tumors have been controversial. The authors retrospectively investigated the results of different treatment regimens in patients with these tumors. METHODS: The records of 41 patients who were treated between 1981 and 2001 were reviewed. They were grouped into patients with a good prognosis (n=3), an intermediate prognosis (n=24), and a poor prognosis (n=14) based on the histology of their tumors. Fifteen patients (37%) underwent surgical resection and received radiotherapy, and 26 patients (63%) also received chemotherapy. The median follow-up of 18 patients who remained alive was 61 months (range, 14-194 months). RESULTS: The 5-year actuarial overall survival rates for patients in the good prognosis, intermediate prognosis, and poor prognosis groups were 100%, 68%, and 8%, respectively. In the analysis, histology alone had a statistically significant impact on overall survival (P<0.0001). All 3 patients in the good prognosis group were treated successfully with surgical resection and radiotherapy. In the intermediate prognosis group, the 5-year actuarial overall survival rate was 44% for patients who underwent surgical resection and received radiotherapy (n=9) and 84% for patients who also received chemotherapy (n=15; P=0.01). Patients in the poor prognosis group who underwent surgical resection and received radiotherapy (n=3) or who underwent incomplete resection and received both radiotherapy and chemotherapy (n=8) all died of disease, whereas 2 of 3 patients who underwent macroscopic total resection and received both radiotherapy and chemotherapy survived free of disease. CONCLUSIONS: The treatment of patients with intracranial nongerminomatous malignant germ cell tumors should be based on tumor histology. For patients who had a good prognosis (mature teratoma with germinoma), surgical resection and radiotherapy were sufficient; however, for patients in the intermediate prognosis group, multimodal treatment, including surgical resection, radiotherapy, and chemotherapy, was effective. Conversely, for patients in the poor prognosis group, more intensive multimodal treatment, including macroscopic total resection, may improve the survival rate.
Patients with vesicoureteral reflux (VUR) often develop reflux nephropathy with focal segmental glomerular sclerosis (FSGS), although the exact mechanisms leading to the development of this complication are unknown. To determine the early changes in glomeruli of VUR patients that ultimately cause poor renal outcome, we examined morphometrically renal biopsies of 16 young patients (age 10-20 years) with VUR at baseline pre-operatively. Patients were divided into two groups, those who subsequently showed good prognosis and those with poor renal prognosis at the end of a 10-year follow-up period. Patients with poor prognosis had worse proteinuria and lower creatinine at baseline than those with good prognosis. We also examined 40 age-matched control cases with previous temporal microhematuria and/or proteinuria but normal renal function and histology. Although the mean diameter of glomerular capillary did not change in VUR cases irrespective of prognosis, glomerular capillary length increased by 125% in cases with good prognosis, and 335% in cases with poor prognosis (P < 0.01). Cystically expanded capillaries, with diameter > or = 95% of that in age-matched control, were detected in five of eight patients with poor prognosis, but only in one of eight patients with good prognosis. In VUR, the number of podocytes/capillary diminished with increased length of the capillaries. Tuft adhesion to Bowman's capsule and podocyte detachment were primarily found in patients with poor prognosis. Our results suggest that lengthening of glomerular capillaries in young patients with VUR is a compensatory reaction to hyperfiltration. The appearance of cystic capillary expansion, podocyte detachment and/or tuft adhesion to Bowman's capsule in such glomeruli may be important indicators of renal prognosis in patients with VUR. These changes may lead to FSGS due to podocyte injury in patients with VUR, with subsequent deterioration of renal function.
BACKGROUND: Modern palliative care promotes open communication between doctor and patient, which includes access to information about prognosis. GPs play a major role in managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) patients in the final stages of illness. Their views of discussions of prognosis are therefore important if the principles of palliative care are to be extended to COPD. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to investigate the role that discussions of prognosis play in GPs' management of patients with severe COPD and the factors that influence those discussions. METHODS: We conducted a questionnaire survey of all GP principals of one inner London Health Authority (n = 389) in April 1999. Questionnaire development involved a literature review to identify issues of importance to GPs in the discussion of prognosis in COPD, and in-depth interviews with five GPs. RESULTS: Of the 214 respondents (55% response), 72.5% thought that discussions of prognosis were often necessary or essential in severe COPD. The majority (82%) felt that GPs have an important role in these discussions. However, only a minority (41%) of GPs reported often or always discussing prognosis. Half the GPs were undecided as to whether most patients with COPD wanted to know about their prognosis. Among the GPs who reported rarely or never discussing prognosis (n = 33), a majority felt ill-prepared to discuss the subject (60% reported that there was insufficient information in the primary care notes to be able to discuss prognosis, and 64% found it hard to start discussions with patients). CONCLUSION: Although the majority of GPs acknowledged a need to discuss prognosis in severe COPD, this was not reflected in their reported behaviour. It appears that the palliative care approach of open communication, whilst seen to be relevant to severe COPD, is not applied routinely in managing the disease in primary care. Uncertainty among GPs as to how patients view the discussion of prognosis and inadequate preparation may pose potential barriers.
Thirty children were treated for near-drowning in the Children's Hospital, University of Helsinki during 1971--1976. The patients were divided into 3 groups according to the prognosis: group I included 13 children (43%) with a favourable prognosis, group II four children (13%) with a less favourable prognosis who developed severe sequelae, and group III 13 children with poor prognosis and in whom the subsequent outcome proved fatal. The surviving children underwent neurological, neurophysiological and psychological examination 6--58 months after the accident. The children in group I had slight neurological or psychological signs, some children presented a lowered intellectual functioning level. The children in group II were tetraplegic, unable to speak and had convulsions. The following factors were important in affecting prognosis: the longer the immersion time, the worse the prognosis. However, prognosis could still be favourable with an immersion-time of 11-20 min. Prognosis was bad if the first pH value was less than 7.00. The arterial oxygen pressure values measured during the treatment did not correlate with the prognosis but a low rectal temperature on admission was usually associated with a bad prognosis. The degree of EEG-disturbance had a prognostic value. However, the follow-up recording correlated better with the prognosis than the recordings during the first 24 hours, after which worsening of the EEG sometimes showed a progressive brain lesion.
The qualification of a person to drive a motor vehicle is the presupposition for the required permission. The prognosis on future human behaviour, which is indispensible for a judgement on such a qualification, is difficult. Only in a few of these cases a clear "good"-prognosis or "bad"-prognosis can be found out. Frequently only an "uncertain"-prognosis is to be justified as a matter of fact. It is only to be said by the regulations of law, whether in cases of uncertain qualification prognosis the driver's licence should be given or denied or whether a driver's licence already given should be withdrawn or not. Starting points for theory and dogmatics on prognosis-decisions due to law and orientated in the knowledge of empiric sciences are to be found in administrative law as well as in criminal law. For example: penal regulations which call for prognosis should be interpreted in the manner that as a sanction (only to be imposed in cases of "bad"-prognosis) the milder measure is to be used at first. Only after an unsuccessful attempt with this milder measure it is allowed to take a more incisive measure (Frisch). In planning law the dilemma with prognosis should be overcome by reflexive feedback within the scope of a new type of procedural law, which would make a process of learning and evaluation possible and enforcable. From these starting points common legal principles on a "test-method" can be developed, which may be used in cases of "uncertain"-prognosis. Such a test-method may help for example to decide on execution relaxations due to the Law on Execution of the Sentence (OLG Celle). The decree on driver's licences on probation (valid since 1.11.1986) contains the most extensive regulations concerning the application of test-methods within driver's licences law. The solution of the problem shown there should be extended: Not only the first driver's licence should only be given on probation but also a renewed one. Even motorists coming conspicuous after the lapse of probation-time should be induced to behave appropriately in traffic by a test-method, which does not force qualification prognosis. So far a further development of point-system for repeated offenders is to be recommended. The test-method could be made quite more effective by refinement of the list of measures (e. g. injunction to participate in follow-up assistance or follow-up examination).
A mail survey was sent to cancer patients to determine how often they want, request, and receive a qualitativeprognosis (i.e., will they die from the disease?) and a quantitative estimate (how long they will survive). The survey included measures of social and psychological characteristics that were hypothesized to be associated with their desire for and willingness to request prognosis information (N = 352). Major findings are as follows: (a) Whereas about 80% of patients wanted a qualitative prognosis, only about one half wanted a quantitative one; (b) over 90% of those who wanted a qualitative prognosis were given one, but only about one half of those who wanted a quantitative prognosis were given one; and (c) about 15% ofthose who wanted a qualitative prognosis failed to ask for it, and over one third of those who wanted a quantitative prognosis failed to ask for it. Multivariate analyses indicate that the effects of education on wanting, asking for, and receiving prognosis information are slight, and the effects of sex are essentially nil. Older people were significantly less likely to request and to be given prognosis information. Those who had greater anxiety and who needed to avoid thinking about death wanted, requested, and received significantly less information. Fear had significant nonlinear effects on desire, request, and receipt of quantitative information. Those whose prognosis was worse were less likely to want, ask for, and receive quantitative information. Those least likely to want, request, and be given qualitative information were those who combined a bad prognosis with a need to avoid thinking about death.
We analysed the predictive factors for relatively good prognosis in the patients with total anterior circulation infarction (TACI) defined by the Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project. One hundred patients with first-ever ischemic stroke within 6 hours of onset were enrolled. Outcomes were assessed at 3 months using the modified Rankin Scale (mRS), and rated as good if the mRS was 0 to 3, and as bad if the mRS was 4 or 5, or the patient was dead. These two groups were compared in terms of their clinical background, risk factors, vital signs, laboratory data, and cranial CT at the time of hospitalization and repeated CT at 24 to 48 hours after onset. There were 36 patients with good prognosis and 64 patients with bad prognosis. In univariate analysis, the patients with good prognosis were younger, had lower scores in the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS, both total score and the score of consciousness sub-item), had fewer rates of deterioration within 7 days than the patients with bad prognosis. In the first cranial CT within 6 hours, the patients with good prognosis had fewer early CT signs including hyperdense middle cerebral artery sign, and brain swelling, as well as infrequent hypodensity more than 33% of total MCA territory, than the patients with bad prognosis. In the second CT during 24 to 48 hours, the patients with good prognosis had smaller lesions than the patients with bad prognosis. In multivariate analysis with logistic regression revealed that age < 70 years, low NIHSS score < or = 15, no deterioration in the acute phase, and small lesion on the second CT were independent predictors of good prognosis.
OBJECTIVE: To explore the impact of HBeAg positivity/negativity and HBV DNA loads on the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis B. METHODS: 206 patients with chronic severe hepatitis B hospitalized in Beijing Ditan Hospital from July 2002 to Dec. 2004 were analyzed. HBeAg positivity/negativity, HBV DNA loads and other factors relating to the prognosis of the patients were studied with univariate and multivariate analyses. RESULTS: Chi2 univariate analysis showed that there was no significant difference in the prognosis between different HBeAg groups (chi2 = 0.440, OR = 0.777, 95% CI 0.424-1.425, P = 0.50). But there was a significant difference in the prognosis between different HBV DNA load groups: the prognosis of patients with lower HBV DNA loads was better than those with higher loads (chi2 = 9.806, OR = 3.055, 95% CI 1.554-6.007, P = 0.002), and the improving rates of the two groups were 53.1% and 27.0% respectively. Using multivariate logistic regression analysis, 9 screened factors showed great impact on the prognosis of chronic severe hepatitis B. Cirrhosis, hepatorenal syndrome, hepatic encephalopathy, PTA < 20%, TBil > 513 mmol/L, Alb < 30 g/L, CHO < 1.6 mmol/L, PLT < 5 x 10(9)/L, and higher HBV DNA loads (HBV DNA > 3 x 10(4) copies/ml in HBeAg negative patients and > 1 x 10(5) copies/ml in HBeAg positive patients) were shown to be associated with a poor prognosis. Coefficients of regression of the above factors were 1.539, 21.356, 1.398, 1.650, 2.440, 2.266, 1.738, 2.631 and 2.656 respectively. The coefficients of regression of HBV DNA loads were: B = 2.656, Wald = 7.768, P = 0.005, EXP(B) = 14.235, and 95.0% CI for EXP(B) = 2.199-92.133. CONCLUSIONS: Our results indicate that the HBV DNA loads were one of the most important factors influencing the prognosis of the chronic severe hepatitis B patients, the importance is only next to hepatorenal syndrome and over grade II hepatic encephalopathy. HBeAg positivity/negativity has no influence on the prognosis, but HBV DNA loads are important; the lower the viral loads, the better the prognosis.
BACKGROUND: A palliative care approach, as used routinely in cancer, is also valid for incurable chronic illnesses such as chronic obstructive airways disease (COPD). However, a London study recently reported that general practitioners (GPs), who provide most end-stage care for COPD patients, do not routinely discuss prognosis with these patients. OBJECTIVE: To compare the views of GPs in Auckland, New Zealand (NZ) and London, United Kingdom (UK) on discussions of prognosis in severe COPD. METHOD: A postal questionnaire of 509 randomly selected Auckland GPs. The questionnaire was almost identical to the UK one. Comparisons were made with aggregated statistics for the London sample as reported in published findings and personal communication with the London authors. RESULTS: The Auckland response rate of 56% was similar to that of the London study (55%). Most GPs in both samples stated that discussions on prognosis are necessary in severe COPD and that GPs have an important role in discussing prognosis. Smaller proportions of both samples reported usually having such discussions, although Auckland GPs (55.6%) were more likely to hold the discussions than were London counterparts (40.7%). Auckland GPs were also more likely to agree that patients with severe COPD want to discuss prognosis and that patients value these discussions. One-third of the Auckland GPs and nearly half the London GPs believe that some patients with severe COPD who want to discuss prognosis are not given the opportunity to do so. CONCLUSION: Auckland GPs are more open than their London counterparts to discussing prognosis in severe COPD. There is increased scope for GPs in London to discuss prognosis with these patients. Further support is needed for GPs in both countries who do not routinely discuss prognosis in severe COPD, but consider it is necessary to have these discussions.
Tooth loss for 100 treated periodontal patients (2,509 teeth) under maintenance care was evaluated to determine the effectiveness of commonly taught clinical parameters utilized in the assignment of prognosis in accurately predicting tooth survival. Previous studies in this series evaluated prognosis as a surrogate variable representing the condition of the tooth at a particular point. In this study, survival analysis was used to evaluate the relationship of these common clinical parameters to an actual end point, tooth loss. Robust log rank tests indicated that initial probing depth, initial furcation involvement, initial mobility, initial crown-to-root ratio, and initial root form were all associated with tooth loss. In addition, smoking and increased initial bone loss were both found to be associated with increased risk of tooth loss while fixed abutment status was associated with a decreased risk of tooth loss. A Cox proportional hazards regression model showed that initial probing depth, initial furcation involvement, initial mobility, initial percent bone loss, presence of a parafunctional habit without a biteguard, and smoking were all associated with an increased risk of tooth loss. This model suggests that patients are twice as likely to loose their teeth if there is increasing mobility, if they have a parafunctional habit and do not wear a biteguard, or if they smoke. From these data there does appear to be a relationship between the assigned prognosis and tooth loss. Teeth with worse prognosis have a worse survival rate, but the commonly taught clinical parameters used in the traditional method of assignment of prognosis do not adequately explain that relationship. Furthermore, initial prognosis did not adequately explain the condition of the tooth or accurately predict the tooth's survival. These results seem to indicate that the effect of these clinical parameters on tooth survival is only partially reflected in the assigned prognosis initially, suggesting that perhaps some of the clinical parameters should be weighed more heavily than others when assigning prognosis. Further studies are needed to develop a more accurate method for the assignment of prognosis.