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PubMed1979

[Contemplations on demographic theories (author's transl)].

All demographic theories make statements on the relationship between population developments and economic developments. The demographic teachings of Adam Smith, Thomas Robert Malthus, and Karl Marx are embedded in their specific economic theories and contain ideologic statements which are not detrimental to demographic and economic sciences but a stimulus for research. The demographic theories which developed with the onset of the industrial revolution of the 19th century are all sceptical of too high populations independent of their analysis of the market mechanisms or of capitalistic production relationships. This has remained unchanged to date. The statistical evaluation of the 1980's underlines this problem. The reproductive behaviour and demographic theory of a highly industrialized economy can not be based on experience alone but must also be based on rational findings. The rejection of the prestige value of children on the reproductive behaviour which is independent of circumstances must be recognized.

Demography↗
PubMed1997

A demographic approach to the assessment of Down syndrome screening performance.

The aim of this article is to examine the performance of screening for fetal Down syndrome (DS) in the context of demographic variation in time and place, using population and fertility data for several European countries. Two screening approaches are distinguished: one on the basis of maternal serum screening with human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG) and alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) in combination with maternal age, and one on the basis of maternal age only. Screening performance, as measured by detection and false-positive ratios, is shown to be the result of the screening approach chosen and of the demographic characteristics of the population under consideration. A proper distinction between these two determinants of DS screening performance should be made, in order to distinguish between an improvement in screening performance that is brought about by a new screening approach and an improvement that is brought about by demographic change. We recommend that measures of DS screening performance be standardized for demographic variation. The methodology and demographic data presented in this article can be used for this purpose.

Adolescent↗
PubMed1998

Risk factors for high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in patients with mild cytological dyskaryosis: human papillomavirus testing versus multivariate tree analysis of demographic data.

The objective of this study was to compare the use of molecular hybridization by hybrid capture methodology for human papillomavirus (HPV) with the use of demographic and lifestyle variables as intermediate triage in patients with cytological mild dyskaryosis. The study was designed as a prospective study using regression tree analysis of demographic data in consecutive patients who were subjected to colposcopic evaluation at the colposcopy clinic at the First Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology, University of Milan (Milan, Italy). A total of 177 women were subjected to colposcopy because of a single routine Pap smear showing mild dyskaryosis. A structured interview, sampling for HPV testing for the detection of viral DNA by hybrid capture methodology, and colposcopic evaluation with cervical biopsies were performed for each subject. The accuracies of molecular hybridization for HPV and of the classification model based on the demographic and lifestyle variables in predicting patients with histologically high-grade cervical intraepithelial lesions were measured. The classification model based on the demographic and lifestyle variables showed comparable results with molecular hybridization for HPV (specificity, 0.75 versus 0.73; sensitivity, 0.61 versus 0.67, respectively). The use of demographic and lifestyle variables appears to be a simple and economic possibility for triaging patients with mild dyskaryotic smears in a screening program.

Adult↗
PubMed1995

The demographic system of a Mediterranean island: Mykonos, Greece 1859-1959.

"This paper is an attempt to examine the demographic distinctiveness of island populations. The population of the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1859 to 1959 is used. Using the results obtained from family reconstitution and inverse projection the inter-relations of the major demographic components are described. The pre-transitional demographic system of Mykonos was found to have been characterised by the combination of low mortality and low marital though moderately high overall fertility. The resulting high population growth was counterbalanced by high emigration which kept the island population almost constant. Mortality and fertility experienced parallel and rapid decline. In both pre- and transitional Mykonos fertility rather than mortality seems to have been the main factor responsible for the changes in population growth. The findings point to a demographic distinctiveness of Mediterranean island populations."

Demography↗
PubMed1991

[Reproductive behavior after the demographic transition].

"The article analyses [Bulgaria's] demographic revolution as a relatively independent process, yet at the same time as part and parcel of the global revolution.... The author considers the conditions influencing [reproductive] behaviour prior to the demographic revolution..., pointing out...the importance of social factors.... It is emphasised that the completion of the demographic revolution in the demographically advanced countries practically solves the problem of the population's size and growth...and paves the road for [improvements in health, education, qualifications, and cultural and living standards]." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Bulgaria↗
PubMed1989

[Demographic change and state income support: an incidence analysis].

"Starting from a simple, descriptive life-cycle model of individual income, an explicit link between the age composition of a population and the personal distribution of incomes is established. Demographic effects on income inequality are derived. Next, two income maintenance programs are introduced: a redistributive tax-transfer scheme and a pay-as-you-go financed state pension system. The resulting government budget constraints entail interrelations between fiscal and demographic variables, causing an additional, indirect demographic impact on the distribution. This is shown not only to change, but in some cases even to reverse the distributional incidence of demographic trends. Several policy conflicts arise." (SUMMARY IN ENG)

Age Distribution↗
PubMed1992

The global epidemiology of the HIV/AIDS pandemic and its projected demographic impact in Africa.

The global epidemiology of HIV/AIDS has evolved to the point that the pandemic now predominantly affects heterosexuals, especially in developing countries. This article summarizes the status of the HIV/AIDS pandemic as of the early 1990s; provides estimates and short-term projections of AIDS mortality in a hypothetical country of sub-Saharan Africa; projects the potential demographic impact of AIDS in a hypothetical sub-Saharan country; and describes the major problems associated with modelling the long-term demographic impact of this pandemic. Estimated AIDS cases and deaths up to 1992 were extrapolated from public health surveillance data and through use of the WHO model. Estimates of HIV seroprevalence were based on available HIV serological data. For developed countries, HIV estimates developed by national experts and/or national AIDS programmes were used, and for developing countries estimates by regional experts were used or were prepared by WHO. For the first half of the 1990s, projections of AIDS cases and deaths were derived from the WHO model; beyond the mid-1990s, the potential effects of AIDS on selected demographic indicators were derived from a demographic projection model developed by the World Bank. Although estimates and long-term projections cannot be made with great precision, the general dimensions of the HIV/AIDS pandemic have been more clearly delineated now at the start of its second decade. Epidemiological data indicate that in industrialized countries, where extensive spread of HIV began in the late 1970s or early 1980s, the majority of HIV infections occurred during the first half of the 1980s.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗
PubMed1996

The demographic profiles of the world's largest cities: a baseline analysis and policy implications.

"This paper examines the demographic profiles of 74 of the world's largest cities through cluster analysis, which classifies the cities into distinctive groups based on population size, net population change, rate of natural increase, sex ratio, age composition, and dependency ratios. Discussions of the results focus on: the strikingly different demographic profiles of the large cities in more developed countries (MDCs) and less developed countries (LDCs); the simultaneous similarities and differences among MDC cities and socialist and former socialist cities; and the particular demographic characteristics of certain MDC and LDC cities. The paper also draws research implications for the data and method used and urban policy implications for the demographic and socioeconomic conditions in very large MDC and LDC cities."

Demography↗
PubMed1989

The demographic evolution of rural France (1968-1982).

"After more than a century of decline, noticeable increases in the rural population of France became apparent in the 1982 census. The spatial patterns of these changes are interpreted by comparing a set of demographic variables in the 1968-1975 and 1975-1982 intercensal periods. Migration to rural areas near many of the major cities (rurbanization) and to the southern part of France is the main demographic explanation. Using factor analysis and a hierarchical classification system the underlying demographic associations are established and the nation is differentiated into seven types. A method for estimating the probabilities of any one type occurring is also demonstrated. The timing of the demographic changes and the fundamental societal forces which have influenced them suggest that government policy has played a minor part in the evolution."

Demography↗
PubMed1994

Socio-demographic trends in Northern Ireland, 1971 to 1991.

"Northern Ireland has demographic and socio-economic structures which set it apart from the rest of the United Kingdom and religion impacts on this social demography more than in any other 'developed' society. Peripherality also serves to underpin some of the distinctiveness of the Province. Socio-economic and demographic data from Population Censuses and demographic data from Annual Reports of the Registrar General are analysed. The socio-demographic trends between 1971, 1981 and 1991 are traced and the spatial patterns are described. Many of the spatial patterns have been remarkably persistent over time and the problems that arise from this are unlikely to be addressed fully given the Province's perverse polity."

Demography↗
PubMed1985

[Demographic background, present, and future of Kenya].

"The development of the population in Kenya marks some demographic records whose exploration and explanation may contribute considerably to...demographic theory and practice: a record-breaking birth rate, fertility rate and natural population growth, a high percentage of 'dependent' population, homogenicity of fertility of the different social groups, a relatively high [level of] desired number of children, a relatively low index of general and infant mortality and other demographic peculiarities. Such demographic characterization offers material for a theoretical analysis and generalization of a historically long social experiment." (summary in ENG, RUS)

Africa↗
PubMed1990

Sydney--a demographic profile.

"The present paper presents a demographic profile of [Sydney, Australia] as a teaching resource base. The paper briefly examines Sydney's recent population history, current patterns and likely demographic future. A Sydney region local government area data base is provided in an appendix for use in student exercises and other analyses. The statistical information presented in the tables through the paper and in the appendix provide a baseline for an on-going data file teachers will be able to maintain as relevant demographic data becomes available in the future. Demographic terms used in the paper are defined in a glossary at the end."

Australia↗
PubMed1990

The Sample Registration System: an innovative system for monitoring demographic dynamics.

"The International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh (ICDDR,B) has been at the forefront of the development of longitudinal systems for demographic surveillance. The Demographic Surveillance System from the Matlab study area is internationally recognized as a unique source of accurate and complete demographic data for a large rural population within a developing setting. In this paper, an overview is presented of a second demographic surveillance system--the Sample Registration System (SRS)--which has been in operation for six years in two other areas of rural Bangladesh." Fertility and mortality rates for the period 1983-1988 are calculated from the SRS data.

Asia↗
PubMed1992

An overview of demographic analysis as a method for evaluating census coverage in the United States.

"Since the 1950 U.S. census, demographic methods based on the fundamental balancing equation of demography have played an important role in the evaluation of the census net undercount. Application of this set of methods, called demographic analysis, results in national estimates of the net undercount for age-race-sex groups. Although results of demographic analysis are readily available in Bureau of the Census publications, the procedures used to estimate each of the components of population change are less well-known. In this paper we review the historical foundation of demographic analysis, beginning with Coale's 1950 census evaluation project and concluding with the recent evaluation of the 1990 census. We examine each of the components of the method, how their estimation has changed over time, and how they were estimated for the 1990 census."

Americas↗
PubMed1995

Demographic dynamics and the empirics of economic growth.

"This paper examines the effects of demographic dynamics on the measured rates of economic growth. It develops a model of production with labor productivity that varies with age. Macroeconomic and demographic data are used to estimate the relative productivity of different age groups. A panel database of effective labor supply is constructed in order to reflect the changing age structure of the population. The historical measured growth rates are then deconstructed into effects of demographic dynamics and into ¿real' growth rates, net of demographic effects."

Age Factors↗
PubMed1985

[Sociopsychological aspects of demographic propaganda].

"This article treats the basic socio-psychological aspects of...demographic propaganda as a process of scientifically planned influence on society, family, and personality with a view to realize a specific demographic policy. The main aim of the demographic propaganda is to influence the reproductive behaviour and conscience. The spheres of demographic propaganda and its motivational basis are also discussed." (summary in ENG, RUS)

Behavior↗
PubMed1996

European economic restructuring: demographic responses and feedbacks.

The relationship between economic restructuring in Europe and various aspects of demographic change, such as demographic aging and fertility decline, is examined. The focus is on changes in the labor market. "Changing employment conditions--the growth of the secondary labour market, the flexibilization of labour demand and increasingly also of supply, growing female labour force participation rates, generally high ethnic minority unemployment--reflect different aspects of the transition from the Fordist to the postFordist regime as well as changing demographic and life-style influences. Together they have deeply transformed the European landscape of employment and unemployment. The specific role of international migration is also analysed and it is seen to have fundamentally altered between the Fordist and postFordist eras. Less clear to interpret are changing internal migration patterns: has counterurbanization stopped in response to restructuring and integration and is a new postFordist population map unfolding? The paper concludes by evaluating the nature of the relationship between economic restructuring and population trends and identifying pointers for future research."

Birth Rate↗
PubMed2000

The Household Registration System: computer software for the rapid dissemination of demographic surveillance systems.

Although longitudinal experimental community health research is crucial to testing hypotheses about the demographic impact of health technologies, longitudinal demographic research field stations are rare, owing to the complexity and high cost of developing requisite computer software systems. This paper describes the Household Registration System (HRS), a software package that has been used for the rapid development of eleven surveillance systems in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Features of the HRS automate software generation for a family surveillance applications, obviating the need for new and complex computer software systems for each new longitudinal demographic study.

Africa↗