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The plethora of digital data has caused a dramatic rise in the use of demographic databases for the analysis of modern populations. This paper discusses the use of an analogue and digital dataset within the framework of a proprietary Geographical Information System (ARC/INFO) in recent historical demography.
Lebanon (about 4,000,000 inhabitants) shows us a surprising dental professional demography. University diplomas to practice dentistry come from 73 different foreign countries. The concentration of dental offices in and around Beirut explains disharmonies of the sanitary map. The studies of these particularities set up the frame of this work. Some answers are proposed.
"I describe a course on international demography in this paper. The course enables students to use demographic concepts to understand the demographics of various countries and regions. The course involves an introduction, examination of specific geographic regions, and a concluding overview. I also describe several student projects and review available course materials."
The demography of the black population of South Africa is analyzed and compared with that of blacks in the rest of Sub-Saharan Africa, using data from official sources. "The article is organized into four sections. First, it surveys what is known about mortality and fertility (and family planning). Then it turns to the issue of the population's size, past growth and projected future growth. Finally, the article takes a bold leap into the morass of population distribution, involving forays into migration and urbanization." It is found that "black Africans in South Africa are demographically quite similar to other sub-Saharan populations."
"When dealing with age structures...the question could be posed...whether in the age structure such pronounced 'distortions' already exist as to make a major contribution to plotting the course of demography and then, as a more or less inevitable consequence, to shaping the social and economic context. In other words, whether conditions of 'demographic malaise' exist linked, on the one hand, to an extraordinarily young age structure and a consequent 'excess' population growth...and, on the other, to an extraordinarily old age structure and a subsequent 'excess' population decline.... This study proposes to focus particularly on this second instance, which pertains to contemporary western populations or sub-populations, [using the example of Italy]."
"Two standpoints on...population reproduction as...a subject of demography are considered. According to the first one reproduction is identified with natural movement, according to the second one, natural movement of the population forms an abstract component [of] reproduction." (SUMMARY IN ENG AND UKR)
"Taking a historical perspective this paper examines the ecological and political influences on Mongolian demography. Changes in political policy, domestic economy, health services, venereal diseases and shortages of men are considered in examining the unusual pattern of very low fertility, followed by a rise in the 1950s and 1960s and a gradual fertility decline, even in the absence of modern contraception. It is concluded that the lack of simultaneity between major political and demographic changes suggest that there are no direct responses to policy, despite the strong pronatalist stance, but that health services, particularly in the realms of venereal disease treatment, have had a major influence on Mongolian demographic patterns. The indirect consequences of government policy--education, health services in rural areas, rapid urbanisation--appear to have a stronger influence than the pronatalism, and ironically have led to rapid fertility decline."
"This paper discusses the possibilities of policy counseling by demography. Moreover, it emphasizes the problems of disseminating the results and the general function of science within the political decision making processes." The geographical focus is on European countries. (SUMMARY IN ENG)
OBJECTIVE: To understand the demography changes and behaviors in drug users. METHOD: Self-reported questionnaires was used and longitudinal investigation was conducted in one of the detoxication centers in Beijing in 1998 and 2000. Drug users were randomly chosen. RESULTS: Results showed that age of drug users tend to become younger with the numbers of drug users aged below 25, increased from 18.7% in 1998 to 28.2% in 2000. Majority of drug users remained males, but the proportion of females seemed to increase. Distribution of occupation showed that the largest increase fell among individual enterprisers, from 15.2% in 1998 to 25.9% in 2000. With educational back-ground, the proportion of lower than elementary education level, including illiterate, increased. Fifty percent of drug users were unmarried which increased from 40.8% in 1998 to 53.2% in 2000. Needle sharing was quite common, 16.5% in 1998 and 11.9% in 2000, but the decrease was not statistically significant (P > 0.05). Fifty-seven point three percent of the injecting drug users did not have constant partners to share equipments. Proportion of extra-marriage sexual practice increased from 12.5% in 1998 to 27.5% in 2000, and significant difference (Chi-square = 12.50, P < 0.001). Multiple partners in extra-married drug users was also found (mean = 2). Compared to 1998, condom use during every sexual practice increased in 2000, but 47.7% drug users still never used condom. CONCLUSION: In summary, as the quick increase of drug users, sharing of injecting equipment and high-risk sexual behavior, including multiple partners and unprotected sex, were quite common, with the possibility of HIV epidemic in drug users.
We introduce a statistical distribution with hazard function mu(t) proportional to (psi-t)beta-1 for 0 less than or equal to t less than psi and shape parameter beta satisfying 0 less than beta less than 1. This hazard function is suggested by a theory of aging in demography. We discuss properties of this distribution and maximum likelihood estimates of its parameters. Mixture distributions are considered to account for pooling across dissimilar populations. This model is compared with the Gompertz and generalized Pareto distributions and used to estimate a finite limit on human lifespan based on the survival of a group of female centenarians.
In the early eighties, French medical regulatory authorities have decided to control the access to medical studies by restricting the number of admittances. From that date, the numerous clauses was unchanged, leading the physicians to observe a deep reduction in the number of young oncologists. The goal of this study was to define precisely the demography of French medical oncologists and the needs for new specialists. Our model used data from a wide range of sources was developed under the guidance of epidemiologists. We determined current and projected numbers and demographics of oncologists in France workforce from 2002 to 2032. The number of oncologists and physicians implicated in oncology (organ specialists, radiotherapists and paediatricians) entering the marked in the next few years will not be modified. Consequently, the number of physicians will dramatically decrease in the next 15 years resulting in a 25% global working-age population reduction. Our present analysis indicates that the number of oncologists will not be sufficient to meet future demand. Our data suggests that steps should be taken to stop the ongoing decline in the number of physicians involved in oncology and the decline of physicians in training. Consideration should be given to actions designed to increase the number of oncologists in practise in the years ahead.
We studied demography from 1980 to 1987 and death causes in the population of the USSL 12 of LombardY in 1986-1987. The USSL includes 63,255 inhabitants on a surface of 60 km2. BIRTH and mortality rates. We collected data about births, deaths, immigration and emigration in every municipality of USSL 12 from 1980 to 1987. In those years the birth rates was constant about 10% and mortality rate was about 8%. We did not find significant phenomena of migration. The fertility rate in 1987 shows two peaks: the first at the age of 26-27 years, the second at the age of 31 years. Population distribution in age classes. We compared the population distribution in 1971 to the distribution in 1981. We found a decrease of 20% in population under 20 and an increase of 24% in population over 65 years. These increase is higher in females (relative increase of 62%) then in males (relative increase of 28%). Ages and death causes. The death age average in 1986-1987 is 67 years for males and 73 years for females. Under 65 years the more frequent and important death causes are neoplastic diseases (breast, lungs, alimentary tract), cardiovascular diseases, traffic accidents. We registered only 6% of deaths under 40 years of age.
Standard proofs of the ergodic theorems of demography rely on theorems borrowed from positive matrix theory, tauberian theory, and the theory of time-inhomogeneous Markov matrices. These proofs are efficient and expedient, but they give little direct insight into the mechanism that causes ergodicity. This paper proposes a simple and unified proof of the two ergodic theorems. It is shown that the birth dynamics can be decomposed into a smoothing process that progressively levels out past fluctuations in the birth sequence and a reshaping process that accounts for current period-to-period changes in vital rates. The smoothing process, which causes the birth sequence to lose information on its past shape, is shown to be the ergodic mechanism behind both theorems.
In this article, the demography of the elderly in Spain is scrutinized. The older population from 1960 to 1991 and their presumed development for the period from 2001-2020 is analyzed. According to these data, we attempt to determine the influence on life situation of older people according to several factors, such as changes of family structures and intergenerational relations as well as changes in social stereotypes, expected political and economical developments, and new concepts in medical care. In closing, we raise questions about the necessary future living structures in Spain.
In this paper, we present a content analysis of Demography, the official journal of the Population Association of America. Our results reflect patterns of change and stability in a number of areas, including: subjects covered, number of authors, gender of authors, type of data used, source of data used, affiliation of authors and statistical procedures employed. The data suggest that the field of population research has become increasingly bureaucratized and complex, while at the same time continuing to focus on familiar research subjects. A relatively small number of population research centers contribute disproportionately to the journal.
This paper argues that the field of household and family demography serves a critical role in the development of our understanding of the determinants and consequences of population trends. Like the community, families and households are situated between the two levels at which demographic research is ordinarily conducted--the individual and the nation-state. The results of the papers in this issue are used to illustrate the critical ways that intergenerational and gender relationships shape demographic processes.
The aim of this study was to describe the demography of centenarians in Denmark in the period 1775-1995. The prevalence of centenarians increased from about 1-2 pr. million in the last half of the 1800s to about 80 pr. million in 1995, especially among women since 1950 leading to a female/male-ratio of three to one. A total of 4292 centenarian deaths were found reported in different sources. The number of reported centenarian deaths was found to be much higher in the first half than in the last half of the 1800s, especially among men and among 105+ year-old: A through examination of 275 reported centenarian deaths on the Island of Funen from before 1900 indicates that this most plausibly was due to age-exaggeration and lack of validation of the reported ages before 1850. This was supported by a backward extrapolation of regression estimates based on the reported number in the period 1870-1925, which showed a much lower estimated number of centenarians than reported in the first half of the 1800s, indicating an emergence of centenarians after 1780. The probability of becoming a centenarian only first increased substantially for cohorts born after 1860. The reduction of mortality among the oldest old in the last decades has created a new generation of very old people. The proportion of centenarians can therefore be considered as an indicator of earlier changes in lifestyle and care for elderly.
Demographers' interest in the environment has generally been enmeshed in broader issues of population growth and economic development. Empirical research by demographers on environmental issues other than natural-resource constraints is limited. In this paper, I briefly review past demographic thinking about population and the environment and suggest reasons for the limited scope of demographic research in this area. Next, I describe more recent demographic research on the environment and suggest several newer areas for demographic research. Finally, I consider the future of research on the environment in the field of demography.