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PubMed2026

Hypoxaemia and mortality in children with lower respiratory infection in low-income and middle-income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Hypoxaemic lower respiratory infections (LRIs) are a leading cause of childhood mortality, with the highest burden in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Hypoxaemia-low peripheral capillary oxyhaemoglobin saturation (SpO2)-is a marker of severity, and WHO recommends hospitalisation and oxygen administration for patients with SpO2 <90%. We aimed to update estimates from a 2015 systematic review and meta-analysis examining the association between hypoxaemia and mortality among children with LRIs in LMICs by incorporating studies published over the subsequent decade and evaluating mortality risk across multiple SpO2 thresholds. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review with meta-analysis by searching PubMed, Embase, LILACS, Global Index Medicus, Web of Science, and Scopus for peer-reviewed studies published between Jan 1, 2015, and June 18, 2025, with combined terms related to pneumonia, children, mortality, and LMICs. We also included selected earlier studies through citation checking. Eligible studies reported associations between hypoxaemia and mortality in children younger than 5 years with LRIs in LMICs. We excluded case reports and case series with fewer than five deaths, studies focused exclusively on the neonatal period, and those limited to children with specific comorbidities or to postoperative patients, for consistency with the original review. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data, and assessed quality. Eligible studies were combined with those from the original review and analysed using random-effects models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) by hypoxaemia threshold subgroup. The protocol was registered on PROSPERO (CRD42023433946). FINDINGS: We identified 7734 records; 26 new studies met inclusion criteria and were combined with 18 from the original review. The 44 studies were published between 1993 and 2024 and were primarily from Africa (25 [57%] of 44) or Asia (19 [43%]); some studies spanned multiple locations. Data from 33 studies including 155 633 participants were included in the primary meta-analysis. Hypoxaemia of any threshold was associated with higher odds of LRI mortality (OR 4·36 [95% CI 3·52-5·39]) compared with no hypoxaemia. For SpO2 <90% versus 90-100%, OR for death was 4·75 (95% CI 3·42-6·58). For SpO2 90-94% versus 95-100%, mortality risk was more than twice as high (OR 2·27 [95% CI 1·22-4·25]). Heterogeneity was substantial (I2 64-85% across analyses), and eight (24%) of 33 studies in the primary meta-analysis had a high overall risk of bias; however, a sensitivity analysis restricted to studies with low or moderate risk of bias yielded similar results. INTERPRETATION: SpO2 <90% strongly predicts mortality in children with LRIs in LMICs. Children with SpO2 90-94% also have elevated risk, suggesting that paediatric LRI and pneumonia treatment algorithms should consider management at this hypoxaemia threshold. FUNDING: None.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2026

Effect of semaglutide on kidney outcomes in the SELECT, FLOW, and SOUL trials: a prespecified pooled analysis.

BACKGROUND: The GLP-1 receptor agonist semaglutide reduces clinically important kidney outcomes in people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease (CKD). We aimed to assess the pooled effects of semaglutide on kidney outcomes in prespecified analyses of participant-level data from the diverse populations of the SELECT, FLOW, and SOUL randomised placebo-controlled trials. METHODS: Participants with CKD (FLOW) or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (SELECT and SOUL) were randomly assigned semaglutide (once-weekly subcutaneous 1·0 mg [FLOW], once-weekly subcutaneous 2·4 mg [SELECT], or once-daily oral 14 mg [SOUL]) or matching placebo, added to standard of care. The primary outcome in this pooled analysis was time to first occurrence of a kidney composite, defined as onset of persistent 50% or greater reduction in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), kidney failure (persistent eGFR <15 mL/min per 1·73 m2, or initiation of kidney replacement therapy), kidney-related death, or cardiovascular-related death. Safety was also assessed. FINDINGS: The pooled participants from the trials (N=30 787) had a mean follow-up of 39·5-47·5 months. Among participants assigned to semaglutide, 973 first events of the primary kidney composite occurred compared with 1134 first events for placebo (hazard ratio [HR] 0·84 [95% CI 0·77-0·91]). First events of a narrower secondary kidney composite (excluding cardiovascular-related death from the primary outcome) were also reduced with semaglutide versus placebo (347 and 416, respectively; 0·80 [0·69-0·92]). Safety outcomes were overall similar between groups, and in line with other GLP-1 receptor agonist trials. Serious adverse events were numberically lower with semaglutide than with placebo. INTERPRETATION: Data pooled from three large phase 3 trials suggest that semaglutide reduces the risk of major kidney outcomes in a broad population with cardio-kidney-metabolic disease while having a favourable risk-benefit profile. In people with cardio-kidney-metabolic disease, with and without diabetes, semaglutide (oral or injected) prevents kidney-related and cardiovascular complications and induces adverse events in line with GLP-1 receptor agonist studies, regardless of baseline characteristics within the cardio-kidney-metabolic spectrum. This was a participant-level analysis conducted in a large database of three randomised controlled trials of similar design and examining the same treatment, but there were some differences in participants' baseline characteristics, and in the dose and route of administration of treatment. This pooled analysis adds evidence for the benefit of GLP-1 receptor agonists in general, and semaglutide in particular, in a broad population of people with cardio-kidney-metabolic disease, suggesting that the benefit of semaglutide might not be explained only by its glycaemic effects, weight-management effects, or both. FUNDING: Novo Nordisk.

Humans↗

PubMed2026

Impacts of climate-driven yield changes on the affordability of healthy diets: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Food security is central to global nutrition improvement and public health goals, and healthy diets represent a higher-level aspiration beyond merely avoiding hunger. Climate change poses an increasing threat to food systems by affecting crop yields and food prices. Although climate change-driven risks to hunger have been widely studied, the extent to which climate change undermines the affordability of healthy diets while accounting for socioeconomic responses and regional inequalities remains insufficiently understood. This study aimed to quantify the effects of climate change on the future affordability of healthy diets under alternative socioeconomic and climate scenarios. METHODS: We developed an integrated modelling framework that explicitly couples multimodel crop-yield projections with an integrated assessment model (Global Change Analysis Model [GCAM]). Yield responses from six global gridded crop models driven by four climate models were integrated into GCAM, allowing endogenous socioeconomic adjustments such as land-use shifts, production reallocation, and price responses to emerge under shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). Diet affordability was then assessed using the Food and Agriculture Organization of the UN's Cost and Affordability of a Healthy Diet framework across three socioeconomic-climate scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP3-6.0). FINDINGS: Under a high-emissions pathway (ie, SSP3-6.0), climate change was projected to render healthy diets unaffordable for a model-mean of 119 million people globally by 2100, even when CO2 fertilisation effects are included, with the upper end of the model ensemble reaching about 1·6 billion people. In contrast, climate-induced affordability losses were found to be negligible under both a low-emissions pathway (ie, SSP1-2.6; -0·3 million) and a medium-emission pathway (SSP2-4.5; +0·2 million). Under a high-emission pathway, model-mean projections indicated that diet costs could increase by up to 12% in the most affected regions by the end of the century. Under medium emissions, cost increases were projected to remain below 4%, whereas under low emissions, affordability changes were projected to be minimum across regions (within approximately 0·5%). Substantial regional disparities emerged, with the largest and most consistent affordability losses concentrated in low-income regions that contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under SSP3-6.0, these disparities persisted particularly in regions of Africa and Asia despite projected three-to-five-fold increases in income over the century, with climate-induced disruptions to food systems increasing the number of people unable to afford a healthy diet through mid-century. INTERPRETATION: Climate change is likely to exacerbate global nutritional inequalities by disproportionately increasing the affordability risks of healthy diets in regions that have contributed least to historical greenhouse gas emissions. Under high-warming scenarios, socioeconomic development alone is insufficient to fully offset these risks, highlighting the structural vulnerability of low-income food systems to climate-driven price shocks. These findings suggest that in the absence of targeted interventions, climate change could continue to undermine progress towards equitable and health-oriented nutrition outcomes. FUNDING: Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China; National Aeronautics and Space Administration Goddard Institute for Space Studies Climate Impacts Group; Future of Life Institute; and Global Alliance for Improved Nutrition.

Journal Article↗