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Scenarios which may lead to the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation.

In a previous paper, the author described a hypothetical development path of technical civilisations which has the following stages: planet dwellers, asteroid dwellers, interstellar travellers, interstellar space dwellers. In this paper, several scenarios are described which may cause the rise of an asteroid-based technical civilisation. Before such a transition may take place, certain space technologies must be developed fully (now these exist only in very preliminary forms): closed-cycle biological life support systems, space manufacturing systems, electrical propulsion systems. After mastering these technologies, certain events may provide the necessary financial means and social impetus for the foundation of the first asteroid-based colonies. In the first scenario, a rich minority group becomes persecuted and they decide to leave the Earth. In the second scenario, a "cold war"-like situation exists and the leaders of the superpowers order the creation of asteroid-based colonies to show off their empires' technological (and financial) grandiosity. In the third scenario, the basic situation is similar to the second one, but in this case the asteroids are not just occupied by the colonists. With several decades of hard work, an asteroid can be turned into a kinetic energy weapon which can provide the same (or greater) threat as the nuclear arsenal of a present superpower. In the fourth scenario, some military asteroids are moved to Earth-centred orbits and utilised as "solar power satellites" (SPS). This would be a quite economical solution because a "military asteroid" already contains most of the important components of an SPS (large solar collector arrays, power distribution devices, orbit modifying rocket engine), one should add only a large microwave transmitter.

Civilization↗

Following the water, the new program for Mars exploration.

In the wake of the loss of Mars Climate Orbiter and Mars Polar Lander in late 1999, NASA embarked on a major review of the failures and subsequently restructured all aspects of what was then called the Mars Surveyor Program--now renamed the Mars Exploration Program. This paper presents the process and results of this reexamination and defines a new approach which we have called "Program System Engineering". Emphasis is given to the scientific, technological, and programmatic strategies that were used to shape the new Program. A scientific approach known as "follow the water" is described, as is an exploration strategy we have called "seek--in situ--sample". An overview of the mission queue from continuing Mars Global Surveyor through a possible Mars Sample Return Mission launch in 2011 is provided. In addition, key proposed international collaborations, especially those between NASA, CNES and ASI are outlined, as is an approach for a robust telecommunications infrastructure.

Equipment Design↗

Automation and Robotics for Human Mars Exploration (AROMA).

Automation and Robotics (A&R) systems are a key technology for Mars exploration. All over the world initiatives in this field aim at developing new A&R systems and technologies for planetary surface exploration. From December 2000 to February 2002 Kayser-Threde GmbH, Munich, Germany lead a study called AROMA (Automation and Robotics for Human Mars Exploration) under ESA contract in order to define a reference architecture of A&R elements in support of a human Mars exploration program. One of the goals of this effort is to initiate new developments and to maintain the competitiveness of European industry within this field.

Automation↗

Blended control, predictor-corrector guidance algorithm: an enabling technology for Mars aerocapture.

A guidance scheme designed for coping with significant dispersion in the vehicle's state and atmospheric conditions is presented. In order to expand the flyable aerocapture envelope, control of the vehicle is realized through bank angle and angle-of-attack modulation. Thus, blended control of the vehicle is achieved, where the lateral and vertical motions of the vehicle are decoupled. The overall implementation approach is described, together with the guidance algorithm macrologic and structure. Results of guidance algorithm tests in the presence of various single and multiple off-nominal conditions are presented and discussed.

Algorithms↗

Mission to Mars using integrated propulsion concepts: considerations, opportunities, and strategies.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the feasibility of a mission to Mars using the Integrated Propulsion Systems (IPS) which means to couple Nuclear-MPD-ISPU propulsion systems. In particular both mission analysis and propulsion aspects are analyzed together with technological aspects. Identifying possible mission scenarios will lead to the study of possible strategies for Mars Exploration and also of methods for reducing cost. As regard to IPS, the coupling between Nuclear Propulsion (Rubbia's engine) and Superconductive MPD propulsion is considered for the Earth-Mars trajectories: major emphasis is given to the advantages of such a system. The In Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) concerns on-Mars operations; In Situ Propellant Utilization (ISPU) is foreseen particularly for LOX-CH4 engines for Mars Ascent Vehicles and this possibility is analyzed from a technological point of view. Tether Systems are also considered during interplanetary trajectories and as space elevators on Mars orbit. Finally strategic considerations associated to this mission are considered also.

Atmosphere↗

The commercial development of space: is an international regulatory framework needed?

The commercial space sector to date has failed to develop comprehensive regulations--"rules of the road"--for its international activities. Within the next 5 years, conflicts with respect to international trade in satellite sales and launch services could emerge, highlighting the need for such a regulatory framework. If the commercial space sector is to continue to develop, it is important to begin discussions now, before these conflicts become significant, on the elements of an appropriate international regulatory framework. The existing framework for space activities was developed when government, not commercial, space activities were dominant, or was adapted from regulations in other sectors such as terrestrial telecommunications.

Aviation↗

Innovations in mission architectures for exploration beyond low Earth orbit.

Through the application of advanced technologies and mission concepts, architectures for missions beyond Earth orbit have been dramatically simplified. These concepts enable a stepping stone approach to science driven; technology enabled human and robotic exploration. Numbers and masses of vehicles required are greatly reduced, yet the pursuit of a broader range of science objectives is enabled. The scope of human missions considered range from the assembly and maintenance of large aperture telescopes for emplacement at the Sun-Earth libration point L2, to human missions to asteroids, the moon and Mars. The vehicle designs are developed for proof of concept, to validate mission approaches and understand the value of new technologies. The stepping stone approach employs an incremental buildup of capabilities, which allows for future decision points on exploration objectives. It enables testing of technologies to achieve greater reliability and understanding of costs for the next steps in exploration.

Astronomy↗

Russian program of planetary missions.

In the area of Solar System Exploration most of recently proposed mission oriented to the studies of Mars. Except MARS-96 and possibly MARS SAMPLE RETURN missions other Mars missions use Molnija class launchers. All Russian missions heavily involve international partners.

Equipment Design↗

STARDUST: finessing expensive cometary sample returns.

The STARDUST Discovery mission will collect samples of cometary coma and interstellar dust and return them to Earth. Five years after launch in February 1999, coma dust in the 1- to 100-micrometers size range will be captured by impact into ultra-low-density silica aerogel during a 6 kms-1 flyby of Comet Wild 2. The returned samples will be investigated at laboratories where the most critical information on these primitive materials is retained. The Jet Propulsion Laboratory will provide project management with Lockheed Martin Astronauts as the spacecraft industrial partner. STARDUST management will aggressively and innovatively achieve cost control through the use of Total Quality Management principles, the chief of which will be organization in a Project Engineering and Integration Team that "flattens" the traditional hierarchical structure by including all project elements from the beginning, in a concurrent engineering framework focusing on evolving Integrated Mission Capability.

Astronomy↗

The Suess-Urey mission (return of solar matter to Earth).

The Suess-Urey (S-U) mission has been proposed as a NASA Discovery mission to return samples of matter from the Sun to the Earth for isotopic and chemical analyses in terrestrial laboratories to provide a major improvement in our knowledge of the average chemical and isotopic composition of the solar system. The S-U spacecraft and sample return capsule will be placed in a halo orbit around the L1 Sun-Earth libration point for two years to collect solar wind ions which implant into large passive collectors made of ultra-pure materials. Constant Spacecraft-Sun-Earth geometries enable simple spin stabilized attitude control, simple passive thermal control, and a fixed medium gain antenna. Low data requirements and the safety of a Sun-pointed spinner, result in extremely low mission operations costs.

Astronomy↗

The Voyager Interstellar Mission.

The Voyager Interstellar Mission began on January 1, 1990, with the primary objective being to characterize the interplanetary medium beyond Neptune and to search for the transition region between the interplanetary medium and the interstellar medium. At the start of this mission, the two Voyager spacecraft had already been in flight for over twelve years, having successfully returned a wealth of scientific information about the planetary systems of Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, and the interplanetary medium between Earth and Neptune. The two spacecraft have the potential to continue returning science data until around the year 2020. With this extended operating lifetime, there is a high likelihood of one of the two spacecraft penetrating the termination shock and possibly the heliopause boundary, and entering interstellar space before that time. This paper describes the Voyager Interstellar Mission--the mission objectives, the spacecraft and science payload, the mission operations system used to support operations, and the mission operations strategy being used to maximize science data return even in the event of certain potential spacecraft subsystem failures. The implementation of automated analysis tools to offset and enable reduced flight team staffing levels is also discussed.

Astronomy↗

Astrobiology from exobiology: Viking and the current Mars probes.

The development of an Astrobiology Program is an extension of current exobiology programs. Astrobiology is the scientific study of the origin, distribution, evolution, and future of life in the universe. It encompasses exobiology; formation of elements, stars, planets, and organic molecules; initiation of replicating organisms; biological evolution; gravitational biology; and human exploration. Current interest in life on Mars provides the scientific community with an example of scientific inquiry that has mass appeal. Technology is mature enough to search for life in the universe.

Astronomy↗

Media reaction to a SETI success.

Consideration of the reaction to a SETI detection by the media, and the effect this will have on the public, is more than mere sociological speculation. An accurate forecast of the media's interest can lead to actions that will help ensure that correct and comprehensible information reaches the public. This is most critical in the first few weeks following a discovery. While a widely accepted protocol for dealing with a detection exists in the "Declaration of Principles Following the Detection of Extraterrestrial Intelligence," it gives scant consideration to the fact that the actual situation will be chaotic and not subject to easy control. The 1996 story about the possible discovery of martian microfossils has provided a useful precedent for what will happen if astronomers uncover the existence of alien intelligence.

Astronomy↗

Project Phoenix and beyond. Pesek Lecture.

Although there are no federally funded projects at this time, SETI (the search for extraterrestrial intelligence) is a vigorous exploratory science. There are currently eight observational programs on telescopes around the world, of which the Phoenix Project is the most comprehensive. Most of these projects are rooted in the conclusions of the pioneering studies of the early 1970's that are summarized in the Cyclops Report. Technology has experienced an exponential growth over the past two and a half decades. It is reasonable to reassess the Cyclops conclusions as SETI enters the next century. Listening for radio signals is still the preferred method of searching, however new technologies are making searches at other wavelengths possible and are modifying the ways in which the radio searches can and should be conducted. It may be economically feasible to undertake the construction of very large telescopes that can simultaneously provide multiple beams on the sky for use by SETI and the radioastronomy community.

Astronomy↗

Space radiation enhancement linked to geomagnetic disturbances.

Space radiation dosimetry measurements have been made on board the Space Shuttle. A newly developed active detector called "Real-time Radiation Monitoring Device (RRMD)" was used (Doke et al., 1995; Hayashi et al., 1995). The RRMD results indicate that low Linear Energy Transfer (LET) particles steadily penetrate around the South Atlantic Anomaly (SAA) without clear enhancement of dose equivalent and some daily periodic enhancements of dose equivalent due to high LET particles are seen at the lower geomagnetic cutoff regions (Doke et al., 1996). We also have been analyzing the space weather during the experiment, and found that the anomalous high-energy particle enhancement was linked to geomagnetic disturbance due to the high speed solar wind from a coronal hole. Additional analysis and other experiments are necessary for clarification of these phenomena. If a penetration of high-energy particles into the low altitude occurs by common geomagnetic disturbances, the prediction of geomagnetic activity becomes more important in the next Space Station's era.

Cosmic Radiation↗

Space missions for SETI.

Radio Telescopes for SETI searches are less demanding than general purpose astronomical radio telescopes. This provides an opportunity to exploit economical approaches in designing SETI systems. Radio Telescopes in low Earth orbit offer no discernible advantages to SETI; indeed, they probably would perform more poorly than a telescope in any other location. Telescopes in geosynchronous orbits would be sufficiently far from Earth to mitigate greatly the deleterious effect of human radio transmissions. Telescopes on the far side of the moon would be superb both from a radio interference standpoint, and from a civil engineering standpoint. Single-reflector telescopes as large as 50 kilometers in diameter could be constructed with conventional materials. However, their costs appear prohibitive. The asteroid belt and the outer solar system are unpromising places to place a large radio telescope. Perhaps the ultimate radio telescope would utilize the sun as a gravitational lens, focusing radiation on free-flying 10-meter class or possibly larger radio telescopes located at distances of the order of 1000 A.U. from the sun. Such a combination has an energy collecting area at 10 centimeters wavelength equivalent to that of a radio telescope about 11 kilometers in diameter, or of the order of 3000 Arecibo radio telescopes. Such a system could detect transmitters with EIRP of the order of a gigawatt at a distance of the order of the distance to the galactic center.

Astronomy↗