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This article describes the plans being made by the census offices in the United Kingdom for the 1991 census "particularly for the topic content of the Census, for its geographical base and for the dissemination of results, and how users of census statistics are being consulted about their needs."
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A broad class of (N+1) -species ratio-dependent predator-prey stochastic models, which consist of one predator population and N prey populations, is considered. The effect of a fluctuating environment on the carrying capacities of prey populations is taken into account as colored noise. In the framework of the mean-field theory, approximate self-consistency equations for prey-populations mean density and for predator-population density are derived (to the first order in the noise variance). In some cases, the mean field exhibits Hopf bifurcations as a function of noise correlation time. The corresponding transitions are found to be reentrant, e.g., the periodic orbit appears above a critical value of the noise correlation time, but disappears again at a higher value of the noise correlation time. The nonmonotonous dependence of the critical control parameter on the noise correlation time is found, and the conditions for the occurrence of Hopf bifurcations are presented. Our results provide a possible scenario for environmental-fluctuations-induced transitions between the oscillatory regime and equilibrium state of population sizes observed in nature.
Capture-recapture models are widely used to estimate demographic parameters of marked populations. Recently, this statistical theory has been extended to modeling dispersal of open populations. Multistate models can be used to estimate movement probabilities among subdivided populations if multiple sites are sampled. Frequently, however, sampling is limited to a single site. Models described by Burnham (1993, in Marked Individuals in the Study of Bird Populations, 199-213), which combined open population capture-recapture and band-recovery models, can be used to estimate permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. Similarly, Kendall, Nichols, and Hines (1997, Ecology 51, 563-578) developed models to estimate temporary emigration under Pollock's (1982, Journal of Wildlife Management 46, 757-760) robust design. We describe a likelihood-based approach to simultaneously estimate temporary and permanent emigration when sampling is limited to a single population. We use a sampling design that combines the robust design and recoveries of individuals obtained immediately following each sampling period. We present a general form for our model where temporary emigration is a first-order Markov process, and we discuss more restrictive models. We illustrate these models with analysis of data on marked Canvasback ducks. Our analysis indicates that probability of permanent emigration for adult female Canvasbacks was 0.193 (SE = 0.082) and that birds that were present at the study area in year i - 1 had a higher probability of presence in year i than birds that were not present in year i - 1.
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Two multivariate statistical tests are presented for examining differences in sexual dimorphism between human populations. One test refers to general differences in sexual dimorphism; the other, only to differences in size aspects of sexual dimorphism. There is no current resolution to the complementary problem of testing for differences of direction in sexual dimorphism. By applying the tests to a comparison of sexual dimorphism in 26 samples of skulls from a world-wide distribution of human populations, significant results (at alpha = 0.05) were found in the majority of cases with the general test, and in a minority of cases with the size test.
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Prolactin (PRL) and progesterone (P4) values were collected from eight intact (4 female, 4 male) mixed-breed dogs housed outdoors for a two-year span. A circannual component was significant for PRL for each dog (P less than 0.01) and the rhythm was validated for the population (P less than 0.004). Females had two estrus periods a year demonstrated by a P4 frequency of 23.5 +/- 0.47 wk. A 6-month component was statistically significant for P4 for three dogs and of borderline statistical significance for the fourth dog. Circannual acrophases yielded a statistically significant population rhythm (P = 0.012), whereas the 6-month component was of borderline statistical significance (P = 0.056). No time-macroscopic relationship between PRL cycles and P4 cycles was seen. These findings are consistent with similar PRL rhythms in non-domestic canids and emphasize the importance of considering seasonal effects when interpreting PRL data.
The accuracy of perinatal and infant mortality rates in most developing countries is questionable. We measured perinatal and infant mortality rates in a rural district of Thailand and compared them with the official statistics to assess accuracy. All births and infant deaths in a rural district of Thailand over a one-year period were surveyed. The corresponding official statistics were also collected. The mothers or the relatives of all stillbirths and infant deaths were interviewed about the registration of the stillbirths or infant deaths. The surveyed perinatal and infant mortality rates were 22.0 and 23.1 respectively. The under-registration of stillbirths was 100% and for infant deaths 45%. All the non-registered infant deaths were in situations in which the infant died before the registration of birth. These results document the degree and nature of under-reporting of perinatal and infant mortality in rural Thailand.
For a life history with age at maturity alpha, and stochasticity and density dependence in adult recruitment and mortality, we derive a linearized autoregressive equation with time-lags of from 1 to alpha years. Contrary to current interpretations, the coefficients for different time-lags in the autoregressive dynamics do not simply measure delayed density dependence, but also depend on life-history parameters. We define a new measure of total density dependence in a life history, D, as the negative elasticity of population growth rate per generation with respect to change in population size, D = - partial differential lnlambda(T)/partial differential lnN, where lambda is the asymptotic multiplicative growth rate per year, T is the generation time and N is adult population size. We show that D can be estimated from the sum of the autoregression coefficients. We estimated D in populations of six avian species for which life-history data and unusually long time-series of complete population censuses were available. Estimates of D were in the order of 1 or higher, indicating strong, statistically significant density dependence in four of the six species.
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A novel statistical model was developed to test for linkage disequilibrium between a polymorphic genetic marker locus and a locus underlying a quantitative trait (QTL) in natural populations using principles of analysis of variance of unbalanced data and analysis of regression involving data of non-normal distribution. Powers of these statistical tests are formulated as functions of census population size, allelic frequencies at the marker locus and the trait locus, additive and dominance effects at the QTL as well as the coefficient of linkage disequilibrium. Theoretical predictions of the power are validated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations. Among all these factors examined, the amount of the disequilibrium and the size of effect of the QTL are of most importance in determining the power, and the dominance and the allele frequencies at the two loci have substantial effects on the power. Numerical analyses based upon the theoretical calculations and simulation studies favour use of regression of the number of marker alleles on the trait phenotypes as a measure of detection of linkage disequilibrium. Theoretical analysis is also performed to investigate robustness of the formula for predicting the variance of the regression coefficient, which requires normality of the regression variables, whereas normality may not be strictly warranted.
Imaging of nucleosomal arrays by atomic force microscopy allows a determination of the exact statistical distributions for the numbers of nucleosomes per array and the locations of nucleosomes on the arrays. This precision makes such data an excellent reference for testing models of nucleosome occupation on multisite DNA templates. The approach presented here uses a simple statistical thermodynamic model to calculate theoretical population and positional distributions and compares them to experimental distributions previously determined for 5S rDNA nucleosomal arrays (208-12,172-12). The model considers the possible locations of nucleosomes on the template, and takes as principal parameters an average free energy of interaction between histone octamers and DNA, and an average wrapping length of DNA around the octamers. Analysis of positional statistics shows that it is possible to consider interactions between nucleosomes and positioning effects as perturbations on a random positioning noninteracting model. Analysis of the population statistics is used to determine histone-DNA association constants and to test for differences in the free energies of nucleosome formation with different types of histone octamers, namely acetylated or unacetylated, and different DNA templates, namely 172-12 or 208-12 5S rDNA multisite templates. The results show that the two template DNAs bind histones with similar affinities but histone acetylation weakens the association of histones with both templates. Analysis of locational statistics is used to determine the strength of specific nucleosome positioning tendencies by the DNA templates, and the strength of the interactions between neighboring nucleosomes. The results show only weak positioning tendencies and that unacetylated nucleosomes interact much more strongly with one another than acetylated nucleosomes; in fact acetylation appears to induce a small anticooperative occupation effect between neighboring nucleosomes.
The focus of this work is the TDT-type and family-based test statistics used for adjusting for potential confounding due to population heterogeneity or misspecified allele frequencies. A variety of heuristics have been used to motivate and derive these statistics, and the statistics have been developed for a variety of analytic goals. There appears to be no general theoretical framework, however, that may be used to evaluate competing approaches. Furthermore, there is no framework to guide the development of efficient TDT-type and family-based methods for analytic goals for which methods have not yet been proposed. The purpose of this paper is to present a theoretical framework that serves both to identify the information which is available to methods that are immune to confounding due to population heterogeneity or misspecified allele frequencies, and to inform the construction of efficient unbiased tests in novel settings. The development relies on the existence of a characterization of the null hypothesis in terms of a completely specified conditional distribution of transmitted genotypes. An important observation is that, with such a characterization, when the conditioning event is unobserved or incomplete, there is statistical information that cannot be exploited by any exact conditional test. The main technical result of this work is an approach to computing test statistics for local alternatives that exploit all of the available statistical information.
Multiple sclerosis (MS) is believed to be an autoimmune process occurring in genetically susceptible individuals after an appropriate environmental exposure. We have exploited the homogeneous Afrikaner population of European ancestry to investigate the likelihood that iron dysregulation, in association with infectious and/or autoimmune disease susceptibility, may underlie the MS phenotype in a subgroup of patients. The functional Z-DNA forming repeat polymorphism of the natural resistance-associated macrophage protein-1 (NRAMP1) gene was analyzed in 104 patients diagnosed with MS and 522 Caucasian controls. A family-based control group consisting of 32 parental alleles not transmitted to MS offspring was additionally studied to exclude the likelihood of population substructures. Statistically significant differences in allelic distribution were observed between the patient and control samples drawn from the same population (P < 0.01). Evidence is furthermore provided that alleles considered to be detrimental in relation to autoimmune disease susceptibility may be maintained in the population as a consequence of improved survival to reproductive age following infectious disease challenge. Although it remains to be determined whether the disease phenotype in MS patients with allele 5 of the NRAMP1 promoter polymorphism is directly related to dysregulation of iron or modified susceptibility to viral infection and/or autoimmunity, a combination of these processes most likely underlies the disease phenotype in these patients. In view of the emerging role of polymorphic variants in complex diseases and minimizing of possible confounding factors in this association study, we conclude that allelic variation in the NRAMP1 promoter may contribute significantly to MS susceptibility in the South African Caucasian population.