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Validation of health economic models: the example of EVITA.

OBJECTIVES: The credibility of models rests on their validity. An age-structured decision analytic model, Economic Varicella Vaccination Tool for Analysis (EVITA), has been developed to examine the epidemiologic and economic effects of universal varicella (chicken pox) vaccination in Germany. EVITA combines a varicella transmission module describing the spread of infection in a population over time with a second module describing the course of disease in case of an infection. Any vaccination strategy can be assessed dependent on coverage levels and targeted age group. Model input data include epidemiologic, clinical, and economic information, which were mainly derived from actual varicella cases (retrospective survey). The objective of this study was to illustrate the efforts undertaken to validate the EVITA model. METHODS: We assess the descriptive validity, i.e., whether the model provides an adequate picture of the reality and covers all relevant aspects of the spread of varicella and the course of disease. Analyzing the consistency of the model results with observable data does technical verification. Face validity, i.e., the consistency with the underlying theoretical basis of the spread of varicella, is analyzed with respect to results on possible age shifts and elimination of varicella. Tests of corroboration, or convergent validity, are performed by comparisons with other models. RESULTS: Without vaccination, the EVITA model predicts undiscounted, indirect costs of 154 million euros, nearly 40,000 complications and 5,700 hospitalizations per year owing to varicella. These results, especially the distribution of complications and hospitalizations, fit well with population-based survey data. The development of the EVITA model is based on an established epidemiologic model and on real-life data from the survey, ensuring descriptive validity. Results on age shifts and elimination show face validity. Although other models differ considerably with respect to methods applied, the economic results of EVITA, i.e., a benefit-cost ratio of 4.12 when vaccinating young children, lies in the range found in other studies. This underscores its convergent validity. Comparable with other studies, discount rates and price of vaccine proved to be most sensitive variables. CONCLUSIONS: EVITA provides a powerful tool to simulate the highly complex processes associated with varicella infections and the impact of vaccination. The results of EVITA provide a reliable tool for informed decision making and should enhance the acceptance of such models.

Adolescent↗

[Health-economic considerations for the use of BMP-2 for spinal surgery in Germany].

INTRODUCTION: BMP-2 can replace autogenous bone grafting in lumbar one-level anterior lumbar interbody fusions (ALIF). The current G-DRG system does not reimburse the upfront price of 2,970 euro per BMP-2 application for hospitals in Germany. The purpose of the current study was to create a health economic model to evaluate the financial savings for health care providers (hospitals) and health care payers (health care insurance) that can be achieved by the use of BMP-2 in spine surgery. METHODS: A previously published pooled data analysis was used in which BMP-2 showed significant improvements in the treatment after ALIF surgery compared to autogenous bone grafting, including earlier return to work time and reduced revision rates. These medical findings were transformed into economic data based on the regulations of the German health system of 2005. RESULTS: The significantly shorter return to work time under BMP-2 treatment generates important financial savings for health care insurances offsetting the upfront prize of 2,970 euro for BMP-2. Savings for hospitals are mainly related to shorter surgery time due to the absence of the bone grafting procedure and faster discharge of the patient. CONCLUSIONS: The combination of improved medical outcome by BMP-2 treatment for the patient and net savings for the entire health care system in Germany represents a "dominant" strategy from a health economic perspective. This implicates that BMP-2 in ALIF procedures is to be recommended from a health economic point of view for the German health care system.

Bone Morphogenetic Protein 2↗

A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production systems.

A deterministic model for the economic evaluation of broiler production and the derivation of economic values in broiler breeding was developed and tested. The model distinguishes four production stages: multiplier breeder, hatchery, commercial grower, and processor. The processor is included to determine relationships for the price per kilogram of live weight and the quality of the carcass, either on a "whole sale" or "further processed" base. Quantity of product output for the system is fixed by a predetermined amount of kilogram carcass of final product broilers finished by the commercial grower. Profitability of production and cost prices per unit product for subsequent stages can be calculated. Exogenous parameters are easily changeable in order to calculate profitability and cost prices for different production levels or production circumstances. Economic values can be derived considering influences of changes in genetic merit for performance traits on profitability or cost price, for integrated and nonintegrated production systems. By changing exogenous parameters, the model can also be used to analyze profitability or derive economic values for other meat-type poultry, such as turkey.

Agriculture↗

The Clinical Health Economics System Simulation (CHESS): a teaching tool for systems- and practice-based learning.

Academic medical centers face barriers to training physicians in systems- and practice-based learning competencies needed to function in the changing health care environment. To address these problems, at the University of Virginia School of Medicine the authors developed the Clinical Health Economics System Simulation (CHESS), a computerized team-based quasi-competitive simulator to teach the principles and practical application of health economics. CHESS simulates treatment costs to patients and society as well as physician reimbursement. It is scenario based with residents grouped into three teams, each team playing CHESS using differing (fee-for-service or capitated) reimbursement models. Teams view scenarios and select from two or three treatment options that are medically justifiable yet have different potential cost implications. CHESS displays physician reimbursement and patient and societal costs for each scenario as well as costs and income summarized across all scenarios extrapolated to a physician's entire patient panel. The learners are asked to explain these findings and may change treatment options and other variables such as panel size and case mix to conduct sensitivity analyses in real time. Evaluations completed in 2003 by 68 (94%) CHESS resident and faculty participants at 19 U.S. residency programs preferred CHESS to a traditional lecture-and-discussion format to learn about medical decision making, physician reimbursement, patient costs, and societal costs. Ninety-eight percent reported increased knowledge of health economics after viewing the simulation. CHESS demonstrates the potential of computer simulation to teach health economics and other key elements of practice- and systems-based competencies.

Academic Medical Centers↗

Pricing strategy for aesthetic surgery: economic analysis of a resident clinic's change in fees.

The laws of microeconomics explain how prices affect consumer purchasing decisions and thus overall revenues and profits. These principles can easily be applied to the behavior aesthetic plastic surgery patients. The UCLA Division of Plastic Surgery resident aesthetics clinic recently offered a radical price change for its services. The effects of this change on demand for services and revenue were tracked. Economic analysis was applied to see if this price change resulted in the maximization of total revenues, or if additional price changes could further optimize them. Economic analysis of pricing involves several steps. The first step is to assess demand. The number of procedures performed by a given practice at different price levels can be plotted to create a demand curve. From this curve, price sensitivities of consumers can be calculated (price elasticity of demand). This information can then be used to determine the pricing level that creates demand for the exact number of procedures that yield optimal revenues. In economic parlance, revenues are maximized by pricing services such that elasticity is equal to 1 (the point of unit elasticity). At the UCLA resident clinic, average total fees per procedure were reduced by 40 percent. This resulted in a 250-percent increase in procedures performed for representative 4-month periods before and after the price change. Net revenues increased by 52 percent. Economic analysis showed that the price elasticity of demand before the price change was 6.2. After the price change it was 1. We conclude that the magnitude of the price change resulted in a fee schedule that yielded the highest possible revenues from the resident clinic. These results show that changes in price do affect total revenue and that the nature of these effects can be understood, predicted, and maximized using the tools of microeconomics.

Costs and Cost Analysis↗

Standards for economic and quality of life studies in transplantation.

There are unique requirements in conducting and reporting economic and quality of life investigations in medicine as compared with more traditional studies involving clinical outcomes. In addition, there are several unique characteristics of the discipline of transplantation that also bear attention in economic and quality of life studies. To provide guidelines for future research and reporting of future research, a consensus conference of transplant professionals was convened to discuss these issues. Five different areas were addressed: "Conducting an Economic Analysis," "Reporting an Economic Analysis," "Quality of Life Studies in Transplantation," "Ethical and Conflict of Interest Issues Between Sponsors and Investigators," and "Future Directions for Research." A series of recommendations for each of these areas with reference to relevant literature is presented.

Economics, Medical↗

Update of the economic analyses of the use of the colony-stimulating factors.

The colony-stimulating factors have been used effectively in a variety of clinical settings to prevent febrile neutropenia and to assist patients receiving dose-intensive chemotherapy with or without stem cell support. Several studies have confirmed the clinical efficacy of the colony-stimulating factors used prophylactically in both solid tumors and the hematologic malignancies. The cost of these agents, along with their large scale clinical use, has prompted a number of economic investigations. Economic analyses based on measures of resource utilization derived from randomized clinical trials have provided febrile neutropenia risk threshold estimates for the cost saving use of prophylactic colony-stimulating factor. A number of important studies concerning the clinical and economic impact of these agents have been reported over the past year. These include a revised cost minimization study based on improved febrile neutropenia cost information and a cost-effectiveness analysis in the adjuvant breast cancer setting based on a clinical prediction model to select patients at high risk for neutropenic complications. Continuing clinical and economic evaluation along with updating of clinical practice guidelines is needed due to rapid technologic and clinical advances in this area.

Colony-Stimulating Factors↗

A brief description of the methods of economic appraisal and the valuation of health states.

The interest of nurses in methods of economic evaluation appears limited to cost-effectiveness analysis, with an apparent unawareness of other methods of economic appraisal and the types of efficiency they consider. The main methods of economic appraisal are discussed, and linked to different kinds of efficiency. Methods for the valuation of health states, an important accompaniment to the methods of economic appraisal, are briefly described along with some of the practical difficulties. If skilled nursing care--alone or with other disciplines--changes health status then the measurement and valuation of such states may be used to inform resource allocation decisions involving nursing. It could be argued that the main impact of nursing is on quality of life, and if so this suggests cost utility analysis, and not cost-effectiveness analysis, as the natural level of appraisal for nursing. The use of these methods in research, and participation in their future development, are both suggested as valid targets for nurses to aim for.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Support from spouse as mediator and moderator of the disruptive influence of economic strain on parenting.

A model is presented regarding associations between economic strain, support from spouse, and quality of parenting. The model was tested using a sample of 451 2-parent families, each of which included a seventh grader (age 12-13). Parent and adolescent reports, as well as observational ratings, were used as indicators of constructs. Analysis using structural equation modeling procedures indicated that level of spouse support was positively related to supportive parenting, whereas economic strain operated to undermine parental involvement. As posited, economic strain produced its effect through a direct relation with parenting and indirectly through its association with spouse support. These findings held for mothers and fathers, regardless of the gender of the child. Spouse support moderated the impact of economic strain on supportive parenting for mothers but not fathers. Possible explanations for this gender difference are presented.

Adult↗

Economic aspects of transesophageal echocardiography and atrial fibrillation.

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of complications and death in the United States, affecting nearly 60 million Americans in 1998 and costing an estimated $274.2 billion. A major contributor to the costs of cardiovascular disease is atrial fibrillation (AF). AF is the most common sustained arrhythmia and affects > 2.2 million people and approximately 5% of all persons over the age of 60. Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) with short-term anticoagulation has been proposed as a viable strategy to guide patients with AF. Here, we (1) review the current environmental context for a TEE-guided approach, (2) summarize the existing literature on the economic aspects of TEE, and (3) outline an economic framework for an economic analysis of TEE investigation or any major clinical therapy. We conclude that more powerful analytical tools are evolving to analyze the important economic, clinical, and social aspects of a patient's medical encounter.

Atrial Fibrillation↗

Does dental service utilization drop during economic recession? The example of Finland, 1991-94.

UNLABELLED: After enjoying rapid economic growth in the 1980s, Finland suffered a deep economic recession that began in 1990. It has been claimed that recession and uneven subsidies influence the use of dental services negatively. Finnish adults born after 1956 and world war veterans are entitled to subsidized dental care either in the Public Dental Service (PDS) or in the private sector. Other adults pay their treatment costs. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this paper is to determine whether the economic recession in Finland during the early 1990s affected the use of dental services. METHODS: The data were collected by the National Research and Development Centre for Welfare and Health using a method called CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interview). The target population was non-institutionalized persons aged 25-79 years. RESULTS: About one-third of those interviewed had visited a dentist during the previous 6 months and this proportion was stable during the years studied. Number of teeth, length of education, income and sex had the highest predictive values for use of dental services as analyzed by multiple logistic regression. Two-thirds had visited a private practitioner, one-third a PDS clinic and a small percentage some other dentist or denturist. CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that the dental service utilization by Finns was stable during this period of economic downturn and only minor changes occurred in the mean number of visits. The most prominent change was seen in the youngest age group, among whom dental utilization decreased by almost 10%. The study indicated that subsidies do not strongly affect dental utilization today.

Adult↗

The free-rider principle, the charity market and the economics of blood.

This article summarizes some recent developments in the economics of the charity market, presents some applications of the analyses and highlights areas which need interdisciplinary research. A brief summary of the fairly recent extension of economic analyses to non-private market institutions is presented, followed by an overview of economic analysis applied to the charity market, interspersed with examples of policy applications. The article concludes with a generalized application of economic analyses to the policy debates on the roles of the volunteer and commercial blood procurement systems in the United States.

Blood Banks↗

Introduction to health economics for the medical practitioner.

Against a background of increasing demands on limited resources, health economics is exerting an influence on decision making at all levels of health care. Health economics seeks to facilitate decision making by offering an explicit decision making framework based on the principle of efficiency. It is not the only consideration but it is an important one and practitioners will need to have an understanding of its basic principles and how it can impact on clinical decision making. This article reviews some of the basic principles of health economics and in particular economic evaluation.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Interactive neural-network-assisted screening. An economic assessment.

OBJECTIVE: To apply clinical effectiveness estimates of interactive, neural network-assisted (INNA) screening to economic cervical cancer screening models to assess the economic impact of using this technology. STUDY DESIGN: Estimates of the sensitivity of INNA screening were drawn from a recently completed comprehensive synthesis of the INNA literature and applied to the Computer Model for Designing CANcer ConTROL Programs-based Cervical Cancer Screen economic model. The economic analysis was conducted from a modified payer perspective using costs borne by payers combined with patient deductibles and copayments. Costs of treating cervical cancer were updated to 1997 values using the medical care component of the Consumer Price Index. The model was run for a cohort of women starting at age 20 and screened on a triennial schedule through age 75. RESULTS: In the primary analysis (sensitivity of unassisted manual examination assumed to be 85%), the ratios found in this investigation varied from approximately $35,000 to $80,000 per life year saved, with the preponderance of ratios < $50,000 per life year saved. These results were sensitive to estimates of sensitivity of unassisted manual screening but not to estimates of treatment costs. CONCLUSION: This investigation applied accuracy data on INNA rescreening to a model of the cost-effectiveness of cervical cancer screening. The results support the use of INNA rescreening as an appropriate expenditure of resources to identify missed cases of cervical epithelial abnormalities and potential cervical cancer.

Adult↗

Stroke treatment economic model (STEM): predicting long-term costs from functional status.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Stroke is a debilitating disease with long-term social and economic consequences. As new therapies for acute ischemic stroke are forthcoming, there is an increasing need to understand their long-term economic implications. To address this need, a stroke economic model was created. METHODS: The model consists of 3 modules. A short-term module incorporates short-term clinical trial data. A long-term module composed of several Markov submodels predicts patient transitions among various locations over time. The modules are connected via a bridge component that groups the survivors at the end of the short-term module according to their functional status and location. Examples of analyses that can be conducted with this model are provided with the use of data from 2 international trials. For illustration, UK unit costs were estimated. RESULTS: With the trial data in the short-term module, the short-term management cost is estimated to be pound8326 (US $13,649 [USD]). Hospital stay was the major cost driver. By the end of the trials, there was a pronounced difference in the distribution of patient locations between functional groups. It is predicted in the long-term module that the subsequent cost amounts to pound75 985 (124,564 USD) for a major and pound27,995 (45,893 USD) for a minor stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Linking functional recovery at the end of short-term treatment with patients' treatment and residential locations allows this model to estimate the long-term economic impact of stroke interventions. Using patient location instead of the more common natural history as the model foundation allows quantification of the long-term impact to become data driven and hence increases confidence in the results.

Cost of Illness↗

Modelling in the economic evaluation of health care: selecting the appropriate approach.

OBJECTIVES: To provide an overview of alternative approaches to modelling in economic evaluation, and to highlight situations where each of the alternative modelling techniques should be employed. METHODS: A review of the available approaches to modelling in the economic evaluation of health care interventions with a leading discussion of examples of published studies leading to guidance in the selection of an appropriate approach in different circumstances. RESULTS: The main approaches to modelling used in economic evaluations in health care are decision trees, Markov models and individual sampling models. These methods assume independence of individuals within the model. Where interaction between individuals is important, other methods such as discrete-event simulation or system dynamics are preferable. CONCLUSIONS: The paper highlights the crucial question to be answered when selecting the approach to modelling: can the individuals being simulated in the model be regarded as independent? This issue is very commonly not recognised by analysts but is fundamental to the appropriate application of modelling in economic evaluation.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Health economics and orthopaedics.

It is becoming widely accepted that research which considers only the outcome and not the costs associated with new technologies in health care, is of limited value in making decisions about the use of scarce resources. Economic evaluation is becoming a standard feature of clinical research but many published economic evaluations fall short of best practice in their methodology. We have described the essential features of economic evaluation, using published studies in orthopaedics, in order to try to improve the ability of orthopaedic surgeons to read, understand and appraise such studies critically, and to encourage them to consider including economic evaluation in future investigations.

Cost-Benefit Analysis↗

Quality assessment of published health economic analyses from South America.

BACKGROUND: Health economic analyses have become important to healthcare systems worldwide. No studies have previously examined South America's contribution in this area. OBJECTIVE: To survey the literature with the purpose of reviewing, quantifying, and assessing the quality of published South American health economic analyses. METHODS: A search of MEDLINE (1990-December 2004), EMBASE (1990-December 2004), International Pharmaceutical Abstracts (1990-December 2004), Literatura Latino-Americana e do Caribe em Ciências da Saúde (1982-December 2004), and Sistema de Informacion Esencial en Terapéutica y Salud (1980-December 2004) was completed using the key words cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA), cost-utility analysis (CUA), cost-minimization analysis (CMA), and cost-benefit analysis (CBA); abbreviations CEA, CUA, CMA, and CBA; and all South American country names. Papers were categorized by type and country by 2 independent reviewers. Quality was assessed using a 12 item checklist, characterizing scores as 4 (good), 3 (acceptable), 2 (poor), 1 (unable to judge), and 0 (unacceptable). To be included in our investigation, studies needed to have simultaneously examined costs and outcomes. RESULTS: We retrieved 25 articles; one duplicate article was rejected, leaving 24 (CEA = 15, CBA = 6, CMA = 3; Brazil = 9, Argentina = 5, Colombia = 3, Chile = 2, Ecuador = 2, 1 each from Peru, Uruguay, Venezuela). Variability between raters was less than 0.5 point on overall scores (OS) and less than 1 point on all individual items. Mean OS was 2.6 (SD 1.0, range 1.4-3.8). CBAs scored highest (OS 2.8, SD 0.8), CEAs next (OS 2.7, SD 0.7), and CMAs lowest (OS 2.0, SD 0.5). When scored by type of question, definition of study aim scored highest (OS 3.0, SD 0.8), while ethical issues scored lowest (OS 1.5, SD 0.9). By country, Peru scored highest (mean OS 3.8) and Uruguay had the lowest scores (mean OS 2.2). A nonsignificant time trend was noted for OS (R2 = 0.12; p = 0.104). CONCLUSIONS: Quality scores of health economic analyses articles published in South America were rated poor to acceptable and lower than previous research from other countries. Thus, efforts are needed to improve the reporting quality of these analyses in South America. Future research should examine the region's level of expertise and educational opportunities for those in the field of health economics.

Economics, Medical↗