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Estimating coverage of a community-based home care programme.

The Family AIDS Caring Trust (FACT) was formed in Mutare, Zimbabwe's third largest city, in 1987. FACT's home care programme started in 1992. The programme operates in the urban area of Mutare which contains three townships with a population of 131,367. The area employs a trained nurse as a coordinator and four assistants, each assigned a zone within the city, who carry out the bulk of the visits. As part of an evaluation of the programme we attempted to estimate its coverage using different models. Using these models the FACT programme has a coverage of between 2.5%-23%. It is important that all home care programmes think in terms of coverage and do not simply strive to provide high quality services to a few patients.

Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome↗

Asian immigration: the view from the United States.

"The focus of this essay will be restricted to contemporary Asian immigration, especially as it is seen from the United States....I shall examine policies first, followed by data on recent immigration from Asia to the United States. Impacts will be discussed primarily with regard to the United States and to the immigrants themselves. Finally, I will conclude with speculations as to the future course of immigration to the United States from Asia."

Americas↗

Trade and migration: the case of NAFTA.

"This article provides background information on NAFTA [the North American Free Trade Agreement], reviews data on its economic effects, and summarizes studies and projections of NAFTA's likely effects on Mexico-to-U.S. migration. Migration factors (demand-pull, supply-push, and networks) are examined to determine whether NAFTA's effect on economic development particularly in the border areas will accelerate or retard migration. The conclusion is that NAFTA is likely to produce a temporary migration hump, slightly raising already high migration levels in the 1990s, but reducing the volume of Mexico-to-U.S. migration that would otherwise occur over subsequent decades."

Americas↗

The movement of people in Asia: internal, intra-regional and international migration.

"The comprehensive overview of Asian-Pacific migration summarizes early population movements during the colonial period and describes the major types of contemporary Asian population movements: (1) environmental refugees, (2) political refugees, (3) internal population movements, (4) contract labor migration, (5) migration of permanent settlers, (6) business related movements and tourism. Projections of net international migration are given. Population growth, employment absorption and emigration pressures are likely to contribute to a large mobility potential for Asia, with significant implications for Australia."

Asia↗

Prospects for cooperative management of international migration in the 21st century.

"This essay attempts, first, to identify patterns and trends from an overview of the modern history of international migration. It examines, then, aspects of human agency and macro-systematic factors to sift for clues as to the future role of international migration and prospects for cooperation management of it. Finally, specific features of the regional migration system in Asia are identified, which will contribute to shape the future course of international migration."

Asia↗

A family of spatial interaction models incorporating information flows and choice set constraints applied to U.S. interstate labor flows.

"A new family of migration models belonging to the elimination by aspects family is examined, with the spatial interaction model shown to be a special case. The models have simple forms; they incorporate information flow processes and choice set constraints; they are free of problems raised by the Luce Choice Axiom; and are capable of generating intransitive flows. Preliminary calibrations using the Continuous Work History Sample [time] series data indicate that the model fits the migration data well, while providing estimates of interstate job message flows. The preliminary calculations also indicate that care is needed in assuming that destination [attraction] are independent of origins."

Americas↗

Estimation of place-to-place migration flows from net migration totals: a minimum information approach.

"A truism in demography has been that net migration may be derived from information on gross place-to-place flows, but that gross place-to-place flows cannot be inferred back from information on the net population movements in a system. Some recent work on maximum entropy and minimum information models, however, suggests a possible means for estimating just such as set of place-to-place flows. The net migration constrained model presented here could prove particularly useful for updating detailed migration matrices on the basis of current net migration estimates, and could even provide some clues as to the nature of the still poorly understood relationship between gross and net migration. Performance of the model is demonstrated using flow matrices from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses.

Americas↗

Migration in an interregional macroeconometric model of the United States: will net outmigration from the Northeast continue?

"This paper reports on the specification, estimation and simulation of an interregional net migration model of the United States. The model makes use of time series data including, as explanatory variables, wage rates, unemployment rates, and population density. Simulation experiments are undertaken by joining the migration model with a multi-regional macroeconometric model to examine the effect [on] migration patterns of changes in national economic growth. In particular, the net outmigration trends in the Northeast are examined under alternative scenarios including faster national economic growth and a different energy pricing policy."

Americas↗

Demographic disaggregation in the construction of regional econometric models: a statistical evaluation.

"A cohort-component method is used to construct historical annual age/sex disaggregations of total population. In econometric models of six substate areas [in the United States], regressions are estimated with and without the disaggregated data for five model variables expected to be dependent on the size of particular population subgroups. Statistical tests are performed to determine significant differences in residual variance of estimation with and without the disaggregated data. Although age/sex population projections may be a desired model output per se, the results indicate that the population subgroup data generally do not improve estimation of other model variables." (summary in FRE, ITA, JPN, )

Age Distribution↗

Multiregional estimation of gross internal migration flows.

"A multiregional model of gross internal migration flows is presented in this article. The interdependence of economic factors across all regions is recognized by imposing a non-stochastic adding-up constraint that requires total inmigration to equal total outmigration in each time period. An iterated system estimation technique is used to obtain asymptotically consistent and efficient parameter estimates. The model is estimated for gross migration flows among the Canadian provinces over the period 1962-86 and then is used to examine the likelihood of a wash-out effect in net migration models. The results indicate that previous approaches that use net migration equations may not always be empirically justified."

Americas↗

Extended input-output models: progress and potential.

"This article presents a critical survey of research on extended input-output models, emphasizing recent developments in demographic-economic and socio-economic analysis. Basic principles of model design and construction are reviewed, by reference to a representative selection of extended models. Two research themes--labor market analysis and income distribution--are pursued in greater detail as examples of the directions of current work. A comparison is made between extended models and social accounting matrices."

Economics↗

Population forecasting with endogenous migration: an application to trans-Tasman migration.

"This article focuses on forecasting migration between Australia and New Zealand (trans-Tasman migration), which is largely visa-free and therefore resembles internal migration. Net trans-Tasman migration is a major component of New Zealand population change and is embedded in this article in a Bayesian or unrestricted vector autoregression (VAR) model, which includes foreign and domestic economic variables. When time series of net migration are available, this approach provides a useful input into forecasting population growth in the short run in the absence of major policy changes. This conclusion applies equally to interregional migration and to unrestricted international migration between economically integrated nations."

Australia↗

Labour migration and the single European market: a synthetic and prospective note.

"The present paper is an attempt to analyse and forecast the following major issues relating to migration in Europe after 1992: (i) the evolution and structure of intra-European flows in the forthcoming single European market; (ii) the integration, after 1992, of established immigrant communities, including ethnic minorities and second generation groups; (iii) future immigration from non-EC member states.... The article explains that, in addition to policy-related mutations inherent in the completion of the internal market, other factors (demographic changes and insufficient enrolment of national graduate students in key disciplines) and issues (emergence of atypical groups such as second generation and Eastern European migrants), are due to generate new patterns and modified interests in European labour migration after 1992."

Acculturation↗