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PubMed2001

How individual age-associated changes may influence human morbidity and mortality patterns.

Patterns of human mortality share common traits in different populations. They include higher mortality in early childhood, lower mortality during the reproductive period, an accelerated increase of mortality near the end of the reproductive period, and deceleration in the mortality increase at oldest old ages. The deceleration of mortality rate is one of the most intriguing recent findings in longevity research. The role of differential selection in this phenomenon has been well studied. Possible contribution of individual aging in the shape of mortality curve is also recognized. However, this contribution has not been studied in details. In this paper, we specify most common patterns of age-associated changes in an individual organism and discuss their possible influence on morbidity and mortality in population. We subdivide individual age-associated changes into three components, having different influence on morbidity and mortality: (1) basal, (2) ontogenetic, and (3) time-dependent. Basal changes are connected with the universal decrease in the rate of living during an individual life. As a result, some phenotypic effects of aging may accumulate in an organism at a slower rate with age. Basal changes are likely to contribute to a plateau of morbidity often observed at old ages, and may partially be responsible for mortality deceleration at oldest old ages. Ontogenetic component is connected with change of the stages of ontogenesis (e.g., the growth, the reproductive period and the climacteric) during an individual life. The ontogenesis-related changes contribute to wave-like patterns of morbidity in population and may partially be responsible for mortality increase at middle ages and its deceleration at old ages. Time-dependent changes are connected with long-time exposure of an organism to different harmful factors. They are most likely to contribute to morbidity and mortality acceleration. We discuss how all three components of individual age-associated changes may interact in human organism and influence patterns of morbidity and mortality in population.

Aging↗

PubMed2000

Regional trend variations in infant mortality due to perinatal conditions in the Netherlands.

CONDENSATION: In the Netherlands, regional variations in trends in infant mortality due to perinatal conditions (1984-1994) exist, which could not be explained by health care characteristics (i.e., place or supervision of delivery and the presence of specialised neonatal care). The only sociodemographic factor that showed a consistent correlation with mortality was the percentage of Roman Catholic inhabitants of a region. OBJECTIVE: To describe and explain regional variations in trends in infant mortality due to perinatal conditions. STUDY DESIGN: A mixed (geographical and temporal) ecological design has been used. Infant mortality due to perinatal conditions was defined as mortality in the first year of life caused by diseases of the newborn period (chapter XV of the ICD-9). Trends in sex-adjusted mortality for the period 1984-1994 as well as mortality levels at the start of this period were calculated using log linear regression. Linear regression was used to examine the association between mortality trends and starting levels on the one hand and both health care and sociodemographic factors on the other. RESULTS: Statistically significant variations in mortality trends were found between regions. The trends in the two Southern regions were found to deviate significantly from the national trend. No strong association was found between mortality and each of the health care factors (i.e. place and/or supervision of delivery and the presence of specialised neonatal care). The only sociodemographic factor that showed consistent results was the percentage of Roman Catholic inhabitants of a region: A higher percentage in 1985 was associated with a higher mortality in 1985 and a stronger mortality decline during the period 1984-1994. This association could not be explained by parity or the age of the mother. CONCLUSIONS: Regional differences in trends in infant mortality due to perinatal conditions in the Netherlands could not be explained by variations in health care factors. This is an important finding as the Dutch system of obstetric care, that includes a considerable number of home deliveries, has been subject to much debate. Further research that includes other causes of death and determinants is needed to unravel the causes of the trend variations.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Changed trends of cancer mortality in the elderly.

BACKGROUND: Trends in cancer mortality for the elderly have long been unfavourable. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Mortality from 12 major cancer sites, plus total cancer mortality at age 65-84 in 23 European countries, the US and Japan was analyzed. RESULTS: Between the late 1980s and the late 1990s total cancer mortality at age 65 to 84 has been declining in the European Union (UE) (-5.5% in males, -4.5% in females), in United States (US) males (-2.3%), but not females (+4.4%), and in Japanese females (-5.6%), but not males (+6.3%). Cancer mortality in the elderly rose for both sexes in eastern Europe. Gastric cancer mortality declined in all the areas. Lung cancer rates declined over the last decade by 8.5% in males in the EU. and by 0.9% in the US. Rates were still increasing in eastern Europe, in Japanese males and in females in all areas. Pancreatic mortality rates were increasing in both sexes in the EU and Japan up to the late 1980s, and in eastern Europe up to the 1990s, whereas rates for US males have been declining over recent years. Breast cancer mortality has declined over the last decade by 8% in the US and by 3% in the EU, while it has risen in eastern Europe and in Japan. Mortality from breast and prostate as well as ovarian cancer remained however low in elderly Japanese. Prostate cancer mortality declined in the EU and in the US, whereas it rose in eastern Europe and in Japan. Mortality from lymphomas and multiple myeloma rose in both sexes and various geographic areas, but improved diagnosis and certification may have played a role in these trends. Mortality from leukemia in the elderly increased in eastern Europe and Japan. but was stable in the US and the EU. CONCLUSIONS: Cancer mortality in the elderly has stopped systematically rising, and is on the decline in males since the late 1980s.

Aged↗

PubMed2003

Handgrip strength and cause-specific and total mortality in older disabled women: exploring the mechanism.

OBJECTIVES: To examine the association between muscle strength and total and cause-specific mortality and the plausible contributing factors to this association, such as presence of diseases commonly underlying mortality, inflammation, nutritional deficiency, physical inactivity, smoking, and depression. DESIGN: Prospective population-based cohort study with mortality surveillance over 5 years. SETTING: Elderly women residing in the eastern half of Baltimore, Maryland, and part of Baltimore County. PARTICIPANTS: Nine hundred nineteen moderately to severely disabled women aged 65 to 101 who participated in handgrip strength testing at baseline as part of the Women's Health and Aging Study. MEASUREMENTS: Cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, respiratory disease, other measures (not CVD, respiratory, or cancer), total mortality, handgrip strength, and interleukin-6. RESULTS: Over the 5-year follow-up, 336 deaths occurred: 149 due to CVD, 59 due to cancer, 38 due to respiratory disease, and 90 due to other diseases. The unadjusted relative risk (RR) of CVD mortality was 3.21 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.00-5.14) in the lowest and 1.88 (95% CI = 1.11-3.21) in the middle compared with the highest tertile of handgrip strength. The unadjusted RR of respiratory mortality was 2.38 (95% CI = 1.09-5.20) and other mortality 2.59 (95% CI = 1.59-4.20) in the lowest versus the highest grip-strength tertile. Cancer mortality was not associated with grip strength. After adjusting for age, race, body height, and weight, the RR of CVD mortality decreased to 2.17 (95% CI = 1.26-3.73) in the lowest and 1.56 (95% CI = 0.89-2.71) in the middle, with the highest grip-strength tertile as the reference. Further adjustments for multiple diseases, physical inactivity, smoking, interleukin-6, C-reactive protein, serum albumin, unintentional weight loss, and depressive symptoms did not materially change the risk estimates. Similar results were observed for all-cause mortality. CONCLUSION: In older disabled women, handgrip strength was a powerful predictor of cause-specific and total mortality. Presence of chronic diseases commonly underlying death or the mechanisms behind decline in muscle strength in chronic disease, such as inflammation, poor nutritional status, disuse, and depression, all of which are independent predictors of mortality, did not explain the association. Handgrip strength, an indicator of overall muscle strength, may predict mortality through mechanisms other than those leading from disease to muscle impairment. Grip strength tests may help identify patients at increased risk of deterioration of health.

Aged↗

PubMed1998

Mortality after the treatment of hyperthyroidism with radioactive iodine.

BACKGROUND: Hyperthyroidism affects many organ systems, but the effects are usually considered reversible. The long-term effects of hyperthyroidism on mortality are not known. METHODS: We conducted a population-based study of mortality in a cohort of 7209 subjects with hyperthyroidism who were treated with radioactive iodine in Birmingham, United Kingdom, between 1950 and 1989. The vital status of the subjects was determined on March 1, 1996, and causes of death were ascertained for those who had died. The data on the causes of death were compared with data on age-specific mortality in England and Wales. The standardized mortality ratio was used as a measure of relative risk, and the effect of covariates on mortality was assessed by regression analysis. RESULTS: During 105,028 person-years of follow-up, 3611 subjects died; the expected number of deaths was 3186 (standardized mortality ratio, 1.1; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 1.2; P<0.001). The risk was increased for deaths due to thyroid disease (106 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 24.8; 95 percent confidence interval, 20.4 to 29.9), cardiovascular disease (240 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 1.2; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 1.3), and cerebrovascular disease (159 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 1.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.2 to 1.5), as well as fracture of the femur (26 excess deaths; standardized mortality ratio, 2.9; 95 percent confidence interval, 2.0 to 3.9). The excess mortality was most evident in the first year after radioiodine therapy and declined thereafter. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with hyperthyroidism treated with radioiodine, mortality from all causes and mortality due to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular disease and fracture are increased.

Cardiovascular Diseases↗

PubMed2003

Differences between older men and women in the self-rated health-mortality relationship.

PURPOSE: The aims of this study were to examine differences between older men and women: (a) in the ability of self-rated health to predict mortality, (b) in the effect of different follow-up periods on the self-rated health mortality relationship, and (c) in the relative importance of self-rated health and self-rated change in health in predicting mortality. DESIGN AND METHODS: By using data from the Nottingham Longitudinal Study of Activity and Ageing, the author assessed relationships between self-rated health and self-rated change in health and 4- and 12-year mortality in separate unadjusted and adjusted Cox proportional hazards regression models in men and women. RESULTS: The differences between men and women in the hazard ratios for poor self-rated health were not significant, although there were differences in the explanatory factors. The relationship between self-rated health and short-term and long-term mortality was explained by age and health among men. The relationship between self-rated health and short-term mortality was explained by age, physical and mental health, and physical activity among women. The relationship between self-rated health and long-term mortality was explained by age, physical health, and physical activity among women. The relationship between self-rated change in health and short-term mortality was explained by age among men and women. The relationship between self-rated change in health and long-term mortality was explained by age and physical health among men and women. Social engagement was an independent predictor of short- and long-term mortality among men and women in this study. IMPLICATIONS: The finding that low self-rated health was not an independent predictor of mortality among men or women, contrary to many, but not all, previous studies, may be related to differences in study design and/or across cultures. Further research investigating relationships between self-rated health and mortality and potential explanatory variables should analyze men and women separately and should consider the length of follow-up period. The benefits of individual physical and social activities in reducing mortality merit further investigation.

Age Distribution↗

PubMed1999

Alcohol consumption as a major risk factor for the rise in liver cancer mortality rates in Japanese men.

BACKGROUND: Age-adjusted liver cancer mortality rates have been increasing for both men and women in Japan since 1970; however, increases in mortality rates in men are much greater than those in women. Hepatitis C virus infections and heavy alcohol consumption are considered to be the major risk factors of liver cancer deaths in Japanese. The purpose of this study is (1) to examine the pattern of liver cancer mortality by gender and birth year to compare those with the pattern of other alcohol-related mortality and (2) to estimate the attributable risk per cent of heavy alcohol consumption for liver cancer deaths in Japanese men. METHODS: Age-specific liver cancer mortality rates by gender were compared with those of cirrhosis mortality rates. Then male-to-female mortality rate ratios were calculated by birth cohort and compared with cirrhosis mortality rate ratios and oesophageal cancer mortality rate ratios. The attributable risk per cent of alcohol consumption for liver cancer death was calculated, using female liver cancer mortality rates as standard rates. RESULTS: Examination of both gender and birth cohort mortality rates revealed that male-to-female liver cancer mortality rate ratios by birth cohort correspond well with those rate ratios for liver cirrhosis and oesophageal cancer mortality. The attributable risk per cent of alcohol consumption for liver cancer deaths in Japanese men was 70%. CONCLUSION: Alcohol consumption is more important than hepatitis C virus infections as a major cause of liver cancer deaths in Japanese men.

Adult↗

PubMed1982

Social class indicators and mortality in low birth weight infants.

This study examines the utility of birth weight-specific neonatal mortality rates in removing the confounding effects, in comparisons of mortality in low birth weight infants, of several factors that influence crude neonatal mortality. For this purpose, the effects of social, demographic, and biological attributes of mothers on the mortality of their low birth weight babies were examined in the total population of infants weighing 501-2000 gm born in New York City in 1976, 1977, and the first 11 months of 1978 (N = 10,187). The results confirm previous observations that race, sex, and gestational age-for-weight all exert significant influences on mortality even within narrow (250 gm) birth weight bands. However, mothers' education, number of prenatal visits and whether delivery was on private or ward service, all variables which substantially affect crude neonatal mortality, had no overall effect on weight-specific mortality in the weight range under consideration. Two other socioeconomic indicators, whether delivery was financed by Medicaid, and the marital status of the mother, did significantly affect weight-specific mortality, but their effects were abolished when gestation, race, and sex were entered into the analysis. Although neither maternal age nor parity had any significant individual effects on low birth weight mortality, a linear trend towards lower mortality in older mothers was discovered, and certain age-parity combinations experienced significantly elevated or reduced mortality. In general, weight-specific mortality in low birth weight infants is little influenced by the socioeconomic circumstances of their mothers, particularly when race, sex, and gestation are taken into account. Weight-specific neonatal mortality can therefore be a useful tool in the analysis of the effectiveness of perinatal medical care given to low birth weight infants.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1991

A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute myocardial infarction mortality: a multicenter study.

This study develops a "time-insensitive" predictive instrument for acute myocardial infarction mortality that would be useful both as a real-time clinical decision aid in the emergency medical setting and also for retrospective assessment and comparison of medical care based on risk-adjusted mortality predictions. This was done using prospectively-collected data on 5,773 patients with chief complaints of chest pain or other symptoms suggesting acute cardiac ischemia who came to six New England hospitals over a 2-year period. In phase one, based upon 4,099 patients, multivariate logistic regression was used to develop the predictive instrument. In phase two, its accuracy and diagnostic performance were tested on an independent sample of 1,387 patients presenting with symptoms compatible with acute cardiac ischemia. Discrimination between patients who lived and those who died was reflected by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve areas of 0.85, 0.80, and 0.76, respectively, for all emergency department study subjects regardless of final diagnosis, subjects who proved to be having acute cardiac ischemia, and subjects who proved to be having acute infarction. Good calibration was shown by the fact that the predicted mortality was found to not vary significantly from actual mortality rates across deciles of predicted probabilities from 0% to 100%. In phase three, based on all 945 study subjects with acute myocardial infarction, each of the six hospitals' actual mortality rates were compared to their rates predicted by the predictive instrument. Actual hospital mortality rates ranged from 9.9% to 19.3%, with one hospital having a significantly higher rate (P = 0.005) and two hospitals both). Predicted mortality rates ranged from 13.4% to 19.4%, with one hospital having a significantly higher predicted rate (P = 0.005) and two hospitals having significantly lower predicted rates (P = 0.04 and P = 0.03). Individual hospitals' differences between actual and predicted mortality ranged from -3.4% to +3.1% (all NS). When grouped by hospital type, the actual mortality rates were 14.9%, 17.3%, and 13.0%, respectively, for urban teaching, smaller city teaching, and rural nonteaching hospitals (all NS). The predicted mortality rates were 16.5%, 17.1%, and 13.6%, respectively, with the rate for rural nonteaching hospitals being significantly lower (P = 0.009). No hospital type had significant differences between their actual and predicted mortality rates (NS). The time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute infarction mortality shows potential for risk-adjusted studies of hospitals mortality for multihospital groups, hospital-to-hospital comparisons, and within-hospital assessment.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 400 WORDS)

Adult↗

PubMed1994

A time-insensitive predictive instrument for acute hospital mortality due to congestive heart failure: development, testing, and use for comparing hospitals: a multicenter study.

The purpose of this study was to develop a "time-insensitive" predictive instrument (TIPI) for acute hospital mortality due to congestive heart failure. In Phase 1, based on prospectively collected data on 401 congestive heart failure patients among 5,773 study patients who presented to six New England hospitals over a 2-year period whose chief complaints were chest pain, shortness of breath, or other cardiac symptoms, a multivariable logistic regression was used to develop the TIPI for acute mortality. Discrimination between patients who lived and those who died was reflected by receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve area of 0.90. Predicted mortality was found to not vary significantly from actual mortality rates across deciles of predicted probabilities from 0% to 100%. In Phase 2, the six hospitals' actual mortality rates for their congestive heart failure patients were compared to their respective rates predicted by the TIPI. Actual hospital mortality rates ranged from 3.6% to 11.3%, with no hospital having a statistically significantly higher rate. Predicted mortality rates ranged from 4% to 9%, with one hospital having a significantly lower predicted rate (P = .01), and one hospital having a borderline significantly higher predicted rate (P = .07). Individual hospitals' differences between actual and predicted mortality ranged from -3.8% to +4.7% (all NS). When grouped by hospital type, respectively for urban teaching, smaller city teaching, and rural non-teaching hospitals, the actual mortality rates were 5.1%, 10.5%, and 5.4%, (NS). The predicted mortality rates were 8.3%, 6.1%, and 5.4%, respectively, with the rate for urban major teaching centers being significantly higher (P = .03). No hospital type had significant differences between their actual and predicted mortality rates (NS). This congestive heart failure mortality TIPI (CHFM-TIPI) shows potential for risk-adjusted studies of hospitals, mortality for multi-hospital groups, hospital-to-hospital comparisons, and potentially for within-hospital assessment and if further validated, potentially also for real-time clinical use.

Acute Disease↗

PubMed2005

On the relationship between all-cause, cardiovascular, cancer and residual mortality rates with age.

BACKGROUND: The existence of a highly significant linear relationship between the natural logarithm (ln) all-cause mortality rate and age at the population level is firmly established (r>0.99). The slope and intercept of the equation, however, vary markedly between populations. Whether this relationship also applies to specific disease entities has not been established. METHODS: Use was made of mortality rates for all-cause, total cardiovascular, total cancer and residual diseases. The midpoint of 5-year age classes between the ages of 35 and 84 years, obtained for both sexes, were analysed. The mean of the three latest available years, from the period 1997-1999 were used. RESULTS: The relationship also applies to a slightly lesser degree to the relationship between total cardiovascular mortality rate, consisting predominantly of ischemic heart disease and stroke, and age (r>0.99). Marginally better relationships are obtained using a second-degree polynomial equation between ln all-cause mortality rate and age, age as independent variables. Total ln cancer mortality rate, however, behaves differently with a significant negative deviation of the mortality rate from linearity at older ages. Residual mortality (non-cancer, non-cardiovascular) mortality shows a mirror pattern to cancer mortality. This residual mortality expressed as a percentage of all-cause mortality varies markedly between populations. The level of some major constituents of the residual mortality rates (respiratory diseases, pneumonia, ill-defined causes and senility) also varies markedly. CONCLUSIONS: The magnitude of the variation suggests misclassification or misdiagnosis of several important disease entities, for example, between senility and stroke or between pneumonia and lung cancer. This questions the validity of disease-specific mortality rates especially at older ages, making their comparison between countries less reliable.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Demographers and the study of mortality: scope, perspectives, and theory.

Demographers have for a long time adopted an empirical approach to the study of the levels and trends of mortality, fertility, and population size. They depend for their analyses on data, usually collected until recent times by government and often for other purposes. Modern demography had its origins in Britain in the second half of the seventeenth century. The major focus of demographers has usually been on mortality, although fertility studies predominated in the 1960s and 1970s. Mortality decline in the West only became certain in the late nineteenth century. Until the 1960s the fastest mortality declines were for the young, but an unheralded mortality decline among the old thereafter became important. The world, especially in economically advanced countries, is faced with an increasingly high proportion of old people, explained largely, not by mortality decline, but by fertility decline. Explanations for the mortality transition place different emphases on the role of modern medicine, better nutrition, and behavioral and social change, particularly rising levels of education. Even among the old, at least until 85 years of age, there are wide differentials in mortality by educational level. Analysts have divided the mortality transition into stages: (1) high, pretransitional mortality, (2) early transitional mortality with the decline explained by the conquest of infectious disease, and (3) late transitional mortality largely attributable to degenerative disease. Some have now added stage (4), the reduction or delay in death from degenerative causes. Attempts have been made to effect the convergence of demographic and epidemiological approaches to the analysis of mortality, and they have been more successful in the case of medical demographic than in social demographic approaches.

Adult↗

PubMed1992

Socioeconomic correlates of mortality and hospital morbidity differentials by Local Government Area in Sydney 1985-1988.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the magnitude of differentials in mortality and hospital morbidity by Local Government Area (LGA) in Sydney (1985-1988), and to correlate these with LGA indicators of socioeconomic status. DESIGN: Cross-sectional group-based comparative study of mortality and hospital separations, and a group-based correlations analysis in relation to socioeconomic indicators. OUTCOME MEASURES: Mortality--life expectancy at birth, infant mortality, 0- to 4-year mortality, age-standardised 15- to 64-year mortality (all-cause and various causes), sex-specific (except infant and 0- to 4-year mortality). Hospital morbidity rates--0- to 4-year hospital separations, age-standardised 15- to 64-year hospital separations (all-cause and various causes), sex-specific. STUDY FACTORS: Census-derived LGA proportions of immigrants, Aborigines, professionals, unskilled workers, unemployed persons, those with a university degree and those having no qualifications, and the composite Ross Indicator. RESULTS: Considerable differences in mortality and hospital morbidity by LGA in Sydney were found. Males had higher mortality and lower rates of hospital separation than females. LGA differentials were most obvious for adults, with little variation noted for infants or children. Most socioeconomic indicators were highly correlated with adult mortality and hospital morbidity in the expected direction, particularly indicators of low socioeconomic status. The unemployment rate, proportion Aboriginal, proportion unskilled, proportion unqualified, and the Ross Indicator were the most highly correlated variables. CONCLUSIONS: There are persistent differentials by LGA in mortality and hospital morbidity in Sydney which are strongly associated with socioeconomic status. The Ross Indicator was found to be a useful composite indicator. The high correlations of mortality and hospital morbidity with the unemployment rate raise the question of to what extent this is due to illness and premature mortality in the unemployed. Monitoring of health status differentials needs to continue if progress towards Health For All targets is to be evaluated.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1999

Inequality in health: socioeconomic differentials in mortality in Rome, 1990-95.

STUDY OBJECTIVE: Population groups with a lower socioeconomic status (SES) have a greater risk of disease and mortality. The aim of this study was to investigate the relation between SES and mortality in the metropolitan area of Rome during the six year period 1990-1995, and to examine variations in mortality differentials between 1990-92 and 1993-95. DESIGN: Rome has a population of approximately 2,800,000, with 6100 census tracts (CTs). During the study period, 149,002 deaths occurred among residents. The cause-specific mortality rates were compared among four socioeconomic categories defined by a socioeconomic index, derived from characteristics of the CT of residence. MAIN RESULTS: Among men, total mortality and mortality for the major causes of death showed an inverse association with SES. Among 15-44 year old men, the strong positive association between total mortality and low SES was attributable to AIDS and overdose mortality. Among women, a positive association with lower SES was observed for stomach cancer, uterus cancer and cardiovascular disease, whereas mortality for lung and breast cancers was higher in the groups with higher SES. Comparing the periods 1990-92 and 1993-95, differences in total mortality between socioeconomic groups widened in both sexes. Increasing differences were observed for tuberculosis and lung cancer among men, and for uterus cancer, traffic accidents, and overdose mortality among women. CONCLUSIONS: The use of an area-based indicator of SES limits the interpretations of the findings. However, despite the possible limitations, these results suggest that social class differences in mortality in Rome are increasing. Time changes in lifestyle and in the prevalence of risk behaviours may produce differences in disease incidence. Moreover, inequalities in the access to medical care and in the quality of care may contribute to an increasing differentials in mortality.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1994

Heart disease, cancer, and stroke mortality trends and their interrelations. An international perspective.

BACKGROUND: Changes in mortality from heart disease, cancer, and stroke over recent decades in many countries have received much attention. However, comprehensive and concurrent analyses of these trends and their effect on total mortality have been lacking. Moreover, the extent to which the trends for one disease may relate to those for another disease is unknown. Concordance of trends for major diseases would suggest that they have common causes and thus may be responsive to the same preventive measures. METHODS AND RESULTS: Age-adjusted death rates for total mortality and mortality from heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and cancer other than lung cancer were obtained for the years 1950 to 1987 in 27 countries by sex and ages 35 to 74 years from the World Health Organization statistical reports. Concordance of mortality trends was assessed for ages 35 to 74 between 1950 and 1983 through visual inspection and semiquantitative measurements of percentage change over time. The epidemic increase in heart disease mortality ended in the 1960s or 1970s in most industrialized countries; death rates often declined very steeply. Stroke mortality also changed from an increase to a decline or from a modest to a steep decline in the 1960s or 1970s. Lung cancer mortality slopes generally changed from a steep increase to either a modest increase, a flat trend, or a decline; the changes in slope are lagging behind those for heart disease and stroke. These improvements influenced trends for total mortality. Cancer other than lung cancer trends are less distinct than those for the three other causes of mortality. Yet, testing them for concordance with heart disease trends reveals that they are mostly concordant on a time-lag analysis that assumes that heart disease responds more rapidly to a change in lifestyle or environment than cancer. Trends for heart disease and lung cancer in men also tend to be concordant on time-lag analysis. Heart disease and stroke trends have become more concordant with time. CONCLUSIONS: Trends for mortality from heart disease, stroke, lung cancer, and, less distinctly, cancer other than lung cancer, tend to be similar in different countries, leading to a corresponding similarity in total mortality trends. An analysis of trends for pairs of diseases within countries indicates a tendency toward concordance of trends, suggesting the existence of common causes amenable to the same preventive measures. This analysis of international mortality trends is intended to stimulate further research along these lines, as a guide to preventive and therapeutic action.

Adult↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Impact of risk adjusted clinical outcomes methodology--quality measures on hospital mortality data: a statistical and case study approach.

The effectiveness of risk adjustment in improving mortality as a performance measure for hospitals remains uncertain. New techniques of risk adjustment should be empirically tested, and health care professionals, using the data derived from such measures, should be queried before final acceptance of these technologies of measurement is warranted. The Risk Adjusted Clinical Outcomes Methodology-Quality Measures (RACOM-QM), a relatively new risk-adjustment methodology developed by the QuadraMed Corporation, was used by Maryland hospitals for risk adjustment for the first time in 1997. A research study was undertaken by the Maryland Hospital Association to determine the impact of RACOM-QM on mortality rates, its empirical validity, and its acceptance in the field. The relationship between RACOM-QM mean risk scores and mortality rates was examined using inpatient hospital mortality data for Maryland in 1996. Using these same data, the empirical relationship between risk-adjusted and unadjusted mortality by diagnosis-related group (DRG) was also investigated. Case studies were undertaken to glean information about the use and acceptability of this new methodology in 2 hospital settings in Maryland. There was a strong relationship between mean mortality risk scores and mortality rates. The analysis of the empirical relationship between risk-adjusted and unadjusted mortality by DRG yielded support for the impact of RACOM-QM in adjusting inpatient mortality rates. The case studies supported the utility of this method of risk adjustment in increasing the interpretation of mortality data and in helping to identify areas in which to investigate quality in more depth in 2 hospital settings. This study provides overall support for the usefulness of risk adjustment and, specifically, the RACOM-QM, in increasing the interpretation of inpatient mortality rates in Maryland's acute care hospitals. This study also suggests that use of the RACOM-QM improved comparative analysis of inpatient mortality rates among Maryland hospitals. Finally, the results of the case study analysis suggest that improved internal review of mortality rates and increased clinician acceptance of these rates as indicators of performance were enhanced by the use of a risk adjustment methodology.

Diagnosis-Related Groups↗

PubMed2006

Mortality among US employees of a large computer manufacturing company: 1969-2001.

BACKGROUND: Previous studies suggested increased cancer incidence and mortality in workers exposed to solvents and other chemicals in computer manufacturing jobs. Most previous studies were of small cohorts and findings were inconsistent. A lawsuit involving a large U.S. company produced a data file for analysis. This study sought to elucidate patterns of mortality in workers who were engaged manufacturing computers and related electronic components in the largest database available to date. METHODS: A proportional mortality and proportional cancer mortality analysis of deaths in eligible workers between 1969 and 2001 was carried out, with U.S. population mortality data as the standard for comparison. Mortality and work history data was from corporate mortality and work history files produced during litigation and standard U.S. and state mortality files. The study base comprised 31,941 decedents who died between 1969 and 2001, who had worked for at least five years and whose death information was collected in the corporate mortality file. Proportional mortality ratios (PMRs) and Proportional Cancer Mortality Ratios (PCMRs) and their 95% confidence intervals were computed for 66 causes of death in males and females. RESULTS: PMRs for all cancers combined were elevated in males (PMR = 107; 95% CI = 105-109) and females (PMR = 115; 95% CI = 110-119); several specific cancers and other causes of death were also significantly elevated in both males and females. There were reduced deaths due to non-malignant respiratory disease in males and females and heart disease in females; several specific cancers and other causes of death were significantly reduced in both males and females. Proportional cancer mortality ratios (PCMRs) for brain and central nervous system cancer were elevated (PCMR = 166; 95% CI = 129-213), kidney cancer (PCMR = 162; 95% CI = 124-212), melanoma of skin (PCMR = 179; 95% CI = 131-244) and pancreatic cancer (PCMR = 126; 95% CI = 101-157) were significantly elevated in male manufacturing workers. Kidney cancer (PCMR = 212; 95% CI = 116-387) and cancer of all lymphatic and hematopoietic tissue (PCMR = 162; 95% CI = 121-218) were significantly elevated in female manufacturing workers. CONCLUSION: Mortality was elevated due to specific cancers and among workers more likely to be exposed to solvents and other chemical exposures in manufacturing operations. Due to lack of individual exposure information, no conclusions are made about associations with any particular agent.

Case-Control Studies↗

PubMed2026

Age-stratified associations of glycemia, blood pressure, and cholesterol with mortality in diabetes: A prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Optimization of HbA1c, blood pressure and cholesterol, referred to as the "ABCs", is central to the management of diabetes. However, the age-specific associations of these factors with mortality in patients with diabetes remains unclear. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study, 43,732 Chinese adults aged ≥ 40 years with diabetes were included from the China Cardiometabolic Disease and Cancer Cohort (4C) Study. Participants were stratified by age (< 55, 55-<65, 65-<75, ≥ 75 years). Cox proportional hazards regression and Fine-Gray competing risk models were employed to estimate the associations of HbA1c, systolic blood pressure (SBP), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) with all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality across age groups. Relative importance and population attributable fractions (PAFs) were computed for each metabolic factor. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 10.1 years, 3,975 deaths were documented. Age significantly modified the associations of HbA1c, SBP, and LDL-C with all mortality outcomes (all P for interaction < 0.05). Among participants aged < 75 years, HbA1c showed graded positive associations with all-cause, cardiovascular, and non-cardiovascular mortality. The SBP thresholds associated with increased mortality risk were 140 mmHg in those aged < 65 years and 160 mmHg in those aged 65-<75 years. Among those aged ≥ 75 years, however, the patterns of these associations differed markedly. Elevated mortality risk was observed only at HbA1c ≥ 9%, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.51 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.19-1.91) for all-cause mortality and a subdistribution hazard ratio (SHR) of 1.70 (95% CI: 1.23-2.36) for cardiovascular mortality, while SBP showed no significant association with any mortality outcome in this age group. Moreover, LDL-C emerged as a significant risk factor for cardiovascular mortality. Compared with participants with LDL-C < 1.8 mmol/L, those with LDL-C of 1.8-<2.6 mmol/L exhibited a significantly higher risk (SHR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.11-3.11). Additionally, LDL-C had the largest PAF for cardiovascular mortality (9.6%) within this age group. CONCLUSIONS: The impacts of ABC factors on mortality risk vary substantially by age among adults with diabetes. In patients aged ≥ 75 years, less stringent glycemic and blood pressure targets may be appropriate, whereas lipid management remains critically important for reducing cardiovascular mortality.

Humans↗