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At least 973 records · Page 54Linked to original sources
PubMed1983

A method for disaggregate household forecasts.

A method for making household forecasts is proposed "which yields both the total number of households and the number present in any predetermined subgroup of households. The method presupposes that incomplete information is available on the transitions of persons between various age and household categories over a period of time. The forecasting method is capable of spelling out the consequences for the prognoses of adding different amounts of external information to the computations. Such information may include population forecasts by age and sex, trend-based information like restrictions on the size distribution of households, econometric relations between household formation and incomes, etc." The forecasting method is described in theoretical terms. "This description includes the use of information-theoretic arguments to adjust the forecast to external data. The theoretical development is illustrated by an application of the method to data for the Stockholm region [of Sweden]. In relation to this application an outline is given of the use of the methodology for long-term projections."

Demography↗
PubMed1983

Small area population forecasting: some experience with British models.

This study is concerned with the evaluation of the various models including time-series forecasts, extrapolation, and projection procedures, that have been developed to prepare population forecasts for planning purposes. These models are evaluated using data for the Netherlands. "As part of a research project at the Erasmus University, space-time population data has been assembled in a geographically consistent way for the period 1950-1979. These population time series are of sufficient length for the first 20 years to be used to build models and then evaluate the performance of the model for the next 10 years. Some 154 different forecasting models for 832 municipalities have been evaluated. It would appear that the best forecasts are likely to be provided by either a Holt-Winters model, or a ratio-correction model, or a low order exponential-smoothing model."

Demography↗
PubMed1985

A personality theory of U.S. migration geography.

"Neoclassical models of migration fail to account adequately for individual differences in propensity to migrate, rates of emigration from states and cities, and the generally high rates of population circulation common in the United States. This article proposes that migration propensity is related to an individual's personality. Using the facts that personality traits are generationally regenerative, both through inheritance and culture, and that the United States was settled in a series of migration waves from east to west, this theory predicts a spatial structuring of emigration rates which closely correspond to actual rates for states and major cities."

Americas↗
PubMed1997

Current migration to Europe.

"In this...article, we concentrate our attention on migration from the Mediterranean region and Sub-Saharan Africa (South-North migration) and from Central and Eastern Europe (East-West migration).... After briefly discussing history and causes of these migration flows, we will address where European immigration stands to date. In conclusion we discuss what is likely to happen within the Europe-centred migration system in the foreseeable future."

Africa↗
PubMed1981

The effects of internal migration on regional wage and unemployment disparities in Canada.

"This paper examines the role of the migration mechanism in the context of a general interregional factor flow adjustment model. Using an estimation technique, which pools cross-section and time series data, the direct effects of migration flows and regional investment on the growth of regional wages and unemployment [in Canada] are examined. The results suggest that migration has a small, but significant impact on regional wages and unemployment rates."

Americas↗
PubMed1983

The boundary value problem in spatial statistical analysis.

"The primary objective of this paper is to investigate procedures for detecting and handling existing border biasing in spatial statistical analysis." Six conventional solutions to the boundary value problem are criticized, and three alternate statistical solutions are proposed.

Demography↗
PubMed1984

Net migration estimation in an extended, multiregional gravity model.

A multi-regional framework is developed in order to analyze net migration over time to all 10 Canadian provinces within an integrated system of equations. "An extended gravity model is the basis for the equation specification and the use of constrained econometric estimation techniques allows for the provincial interdependence of the migration decision while at the same time ensuring that an important system-wide requirement is respected." The model is estimated using official Canadian data for the 1960s and 1970s. "The results suggest the predominance of the push factor for interprovincial migration for most provinces, although net migration to the Atlantic provinces is also shown to be subject to pull forces from the rest of the country." The effects of wage rate variables, unemployment, and political disturbances in Quebec on inter-provincial migration are noted.

Americas↗
PubMed1985

The changing structure of a city: temporal changes in cubic spline urban density patterns.

"Using the basic summary of urban structure given by the population density function, this paper estimates changes which have occurred in the structure of the Detroit [Michigan] metropolitan area during the past two decades. Both overall density changes and direction-specific changes are estimated using census data and the method of cubic spline regression. The results give more revealing insight into the structural changes which have occurred in the city than has been possible with traditional models of urban population density."

Americas↗
PubMed1988

Incorporating the effects of spatial structure in discrete choice models of migration.

Discrete-choice theory and logit models are evaluated for their usefulness in analyzing migration patterns in a zonal system. The authors "argue that spatial effects and more specifically the relative location of zones are not taken into account in such analyses. We, therefore, introduce a measure of spatial structure and advocate its usage as a predictor of migration in such models. In an example of intrametropolitan migration in Toronto [Canada], we demonstrate that this variable is not only significant but also it improves the performance of all the other variables with the greatest impact on the distance between zones. In addition, inclusion of this variable improves the overall performance of the model in terms of residuals."

Americas↗
PubMed1989

The relationships among labor-force participation, service-sector employment, and underemployment.

"In this study, it is argued [that] underemployment is both affected by and affects the labor-force participation rate (LFPR) and the level of service employment. Interestingly, the analysis reveals that service employment lowers the LFPR and raises underemployment. In turn, underemployment increases the LFPR as more secondary workers are pushed into the labor market in an effort to support their households. Thus, secondary workers are not pulled into the labor market by the availability of service jobs, but are rather pushed into these jobs by the condition of underemployment that is brought on by the growing concentration of low-paying service jobs....A three-equation simultaneous equation model is developed to test our hypotheses [and] three-stage least squares...estimates of this model for the 100 largest [U.S.] metropolitan areas are presented...."

Americas↗
PubMed1990

Do metropolitan areas mean anything? A research note.

"In this brief study, I ask the most elementary question about the coherence of [U.S.] central cities and suburbs: are their population changes correlated in any simple way?...Specifically, I ask the following question: suppose one knows the national population growth rate, whether an SMSA component is the central city (cities) or suburbs, and the region in which the SMSA is located, then would the ability to explain the component's population growth rate be improved by knowing which SMSA the component is in?... The conclusion is that there appears to be an SMSA effect on population growth."

Americas↗