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PubMed2003

Costs of schizophrenia and other psychoses in urban Australia: findings from the Low Prevalence (Psychotic) Disorders Study.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the costs associated with the treatment and care of persons with psychosis in Australia based on data from the Low Prevalence Disorders Study (LPDS), and to identify areas where there is potential for more efficient use of existing health care resources. METHOD: The LPDS was a one-month census-based survey of people with psychotic disorders in contact with mental health services, which was conducted in four metropolitan regions in 1997-1998. Mental health and service utilization data from 980 interviews were used to estimate the economic costs associated with psychotic disorders. A prevalence-based, 'bottom-up' approach was adopted to calculate the government and societal costs associated with psychosis, including treatment and non-treatment related costs. RESULTS: Annual societal costs for the average patient with psychosis are of the order of 46,200 Australian dollars , comprising 27,500 Australian dollars in lost productivity, 13,800 Australian dollars in inpatient mental health care costs and 4900 Australian dollars in other mental health and community services costs. Psychosis costs the Australian government at least 1.45 billion Australian dollars per annum, while societal costs are at least 2.25 billion Australian dollars per annum (including 1.44 billion Australian dollars for schizophrenia). We also report relationships between societal costs and demographic factors, diagnosis, disability and participation in employment. CONCLUSIONS: Current expenditure on psychosis in Australia is probably inefficient. There may be substantial opportunity costs in not delivering effective treatments in sufficient volume to people with psychotic disorders, not intervening early, and not improving access to rehabilitation and supported accommodation.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1985

Economic-demographic modeling with endogenously determined birth and migration rates: theory and prospects.

"The standard demographic approach to population forecasting consists of extrapolating into the future carefully measured birth, death, and migration rates. An alternative is to forecast changes in those rates on the basis of social science theories. In this paper the prospects for incorporating those theories into forecasting models are assessed. The paper has two parts, the first devoted to fertility and the second to migration. Each contains a description of the demographic methods currently used by the US Bureau of the Census followed by a comprehensive review of the theoretical foundations for forecasting and an assessment of the prospects for doing so."

Americas↗

PubMed2001

Immigration and the regional demographics of the elderly population in the United States.

OBJECTIVES: This research examined the impacts of past international and interregional migration flows on regional elderly population growth and distribution patterns. METHODS: The authors used 1960, 1970, 1980, and 1990 Census data and multiregional demographic models to analyze changes in the sources of regional elderly population growth rates, age compositions, and spatial distributions over time. RESULTS: Past elderly interregional migration patterns have exhibited considerable stability and have contributed less than aging-in-place in shaping regional elderly population geographies. Also the effects of immigration on elderly dependency ratios have been very modest. DISCUSSION: Little evidence exists of any significant breaks with past trends in internal elderly migration patterns. Reconstruction of elderly population changes between 1950 and 1990 reveals that the driving force behind the changes was net aging-in-place and not net migration. Finally, analysis of the possible population rejuvenating effects of immigration suggests that although its impact has contributed to lower elderly-to-worker dependency ratios, its level over the past decades has been insufficient to counteract the much stronger countervailing impact of population aging.

Aged↗

PubMed1999

Inequalities in mortality according to educational level in two large Southern European cities.

BACKGROUND: In Spain, studies on social inequalities in mortality based on individuals are few due to the poor quality of information on occupation in death certificates. This study looks at the differences in mortality according to educational level, using individual information obtained through the linkage between the Death Register and the Municipal Census, in the cities of Madrid and Barcelona, Spain. METHODS: The study populations were residents of Madrid and Barcelona aged >24 years, who died in 1993 and 1994. Indicators obtained for each city and educational level were: age- and sex-specific mortality rates, and life expectancy at 25 years. Poisson regression models were fitted to obtain the relative risk (RR) of death for each educational level with respect to the reference level (higher education completed), adjusted for age. RESULTS: The mortality rate was lower among individuals with higher educational levels, while life expectancy at 25 years was higher. In both cities men and women with no education showed the highest mortality in all age groups, with very high RR in the youngest age group (RR for men aged 25-34 years = 7.08 in Madrid and 6.02 in Barcelona, whereas in women these RR were 6.33 and 5.63 respectively). In Barcelona the greater part of the overall mortality difference for the group aged 25-34 years was due to AIDS (acquired deficiency syndrome, 33.4% in men and 59.3% in women). CONCLUSION: The present study has found higher mortality (mainly from AIDS) among individuals with no academic qualifications thus drawing attention to the need to implement policies aimed at reducing these inequalities.

Adult↗

PubMed1999

Bias related to the exclusion of the economically inactive in studies on social class differences in mortality.

BACKGROUND: To assess how the exclusion of the economically inactive affects levels and trends in social class differences in mortality among men and women at different durations of follow-up. METHODS: Records of the 1970, 1975, 1980 and 1985 censuses on Finnish men and women aged 35-64 linked with records of all deaths during 1971-1990. RESULTS: Exclusion of the economically inactive population underestimates the class differences in the total population by about 25% among men and 60% among women. The bias does not disappear if the first 5 years of follow-up are excluded and the bias can lead to erroneous conclusions about the trends in social class differences in mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Analyses based on the economically active population may lead to significant underestimation of social class differences in mortality, introduce biases in international comparison and may only partially capture the causal mechanisms underlying these mortality differences. Our results further show that although the bias diminishes during the follow-up, it is by no means eliminated after the first 5 years. The underestimation of social class differences in mortality created by the exclusion of the inactive should be more widely recognized and more accurate data on previous occupations should be collected.

Adult↗

PubMed1994

HIV-1 incidence and HIV-1-associated mortality in a rural Ugandan population cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the incidence of HIV-1 infection and HIV-1-associated mortality in a rural Ugandan population. DESIGN: A prospective cohort study. METHODS: A cohort consisting of the population (de jure census 9820) of a cluster of 15 villages in Masaka District, south-west Uganda was enrolled between 1989 and 1990 through a demographic and medical survey. The HIV-1 seroprevalence rate was 4.8% for all ages combined and 8.2% for those aged 13 years or more. The survey was repeated after 1 year. RESULTS: The 1-year HIV-1 incidence rate among adults was 1% [9.2 per 1000 person-years of observation; 95% confidence interval (CI), 5.5-12.9). A total of 84 deaths were observed. In adults, half of all deaths (31 out of 60) were in HIV-1-seropositive individuals. The age-adjusted overall mortality rate ratio for HIV-positive adults compared with HIV-negatives was 20.8 (95% CI, 12.0-35.7). In the 13-44 age group the corresponding rate ratios for men, women and both sexes combined were 16.3, 108.9 and 58.7, respectively. The HIV-attributable mortality fractions, i.e., the proportion of deaths that would have been avoided in the absence of HIV, were 44, 50 and 89% for adult men, adult women and adults aged 25-34 years (both sexes combined), respectively. The 1-year progression to death among HIV-1-seropositive adults was 10.3%. CONCLUSION: These results demonstrate the profound impact that the HIV-1 epidemic has on adult mortality in a rural area of Uganda where the HIV-1 prevalence and incidence rates in adults are 8 and 1%, respectively.

Adolescent↗

PubMed1996

Evidence for recent growth of the HIV epidemic among African-American men and younger male cohorts in Los Angeles County.

To estimate the recent course of the human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV) epidemic among men within birth cohorts, ethnic groups, and HIV-risk groups in Los Angeles County, backcalculation methods were combined with log-linear models and census data to reconstruct HIV incidence in subgroups from AIDS surveillance data. Results were compared with directly measured HIV seroprevalence in public sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinics in Los Angeles. Models of HIV incidence indicate that the initial epidemic pattern among men who have sex with men, including a decline in incidence since the mid-1980s, does not apply to all post-1960 birth cohorts. Later peaks were observed in younger birth cohorts and among injection drug users, especially among African-American men, with no evidence of a peak before the 1990s among men born after 1960. Our results indicate that HIV continued to spread near peak rates into the 1990s among younger birth cohorts, especially among young African-American men who have sex with men. Because of the lengthy incubation period from HIV infection to AIDS incidence, our results imply that the AIDS epidemic has not yet peaked in these cohorts and may continue to grow through the present decade in several subgroups. The large variation in HIV incidence and prevalence across birth cohorts and other subgroups needs to be addressed in future community intervention plans.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2004

Association of sleep disturbance with chronicity and remission of alcohol dependence: data from a population-based prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: We assessed the association of three types of self-reported sleep disturbances (insomnia, hypersomnia, and sleep disturbance caused by worry) among individuals with chronic and remitted alcohol dependence, using prospectively gathered data from a population-based sample. METHODS: Probability samples of area residents were selected by census tracks and households in Baltimore, MD, in 1981, as part of the Epidemiologic Catchment Area program (n = 3481). Between 1993 and 1996, the original cohort was traced, and 73% of the survivors were re-interviewed (n = 1920). Three groups for alcohol dependence status were identified: (1) chronic, (2) remitted, and (3) no lifetime or current history of dependence. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association between alcohol dependence status for each type of sleep disturbance. RESULTS: Of the 248 individuals with alcohol dependence, most had achieved remission of dependence by the time of the median 13-year follow-up interview (n = 211). A total of 37 met criteria for chronic dependence. After holding constant potential confounders (age, sex, race, educational level, marital status, psychiatric and illicit drug disorder history, health services use, and age of onset of first alcohol-related problem), we found that chronic dependence was associated with insomnia (odds ratio = 2.60; 95% confidence interval = 1.11-6.08; p = 0.03), relative to those without a history of dependence. Remitted dependence was not associated with sleep disturbance in the models adjusted for covariates. In supplemental analyses, we assessed the association of drinking status with alcohol dependence remission. CONCLUSIONS: Individuals with persistent alcohol dependence have greater odds of insomnia than those whose alcohol dependence remits. The need for prospectively gathered data from community-based samples to assess further the temporal relationships of sleep disturbance, alcohol dependence, and alcohol consumption level is discussed.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Measuring the effect of a large reduction in welfare payments on mental health service use in welfare-dependent neighborhoods.

BACKGROUND: Major social policy changes were implemented in Canada in the last decade with few efforts to examine their potential health effects. OBJECTIVES: We sought to determine the impact of a large reduction in welfare benefits on use of ambulatory physician mental health services in areas with high levels of welfare dependency relative to areas with low levels of welfare dependency. METHODS: The setting was Toronto, Canada. Data sources included census, provincial health insurance, and municipal welfare data. We used generalized estimating equations to compare ambulatory mental health service rates by neighborhood level of welfare dependency before and after a 21.6% reduction in welfare payments. RESULTS: There were no long-term relative differences by welfare dependency in mental health service use before compared with after the policy change. There was a very small short-term increase in mental health visits to generalists in the 6 months after the policy change. We demonstrated a marked gradient in psychiatric service use with low welfare dependency areas having significantly higher rates of use than high welfare dependency areas. CONCLUSIONS: We demonstrated a mismatch between known levels of need for care and levels of psychiatric use. We conclude that where use of services is not tightly linked to need for services, utilization data may be unsuitable for evaluating programs or policies. Social policy changes with potential health effects should have integrated evaluations planned at the time of policy implementation.

Community Mental Health Services↗

PubMed2006

Caesarean section on request: a comparison of obstetricians' attitudes in eight European countries.

OBJECTIVE: To explore the attitudes of obstetricians to perform a caesarean section on maternal request in the absence of medical indication. DESIGN: Cluster sampling cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Neonatal Intensive Care Unit (NICU) associated maternity units in eight European countries. POPULATION: Obstetricians with at least 6 months clinical experience. METHODS: NICU-associated maternity units were chosen by census in Luxembourg, Netherlands and Sweden and by geographically stratified random sampling in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK. An anonymous, self-administered questionnaire was used for data collection. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Obstetricians' willingness to perform a caesarean section on maternal request. RESULTS: One hundred and five units and 1,530 obstetricians participated in the study (response rates of 70 and 77%, respectively). Compliance with a hypothetical woman's request for elective caesarean section simply because it was 'her choice' was lowest in Spain (15%), France (19%) and Netherlands (22%); highest in Germany (75%) and UK (79%) and intermediate in the remaining countries. Using weighted multivariate logistic regression, country of practice (P<0.001), fear of litigation (P= 0.004) and working in a university-affiliated hospital (P= 0.001) were associated with physicians' likelihood to agree to patient's request. The subset of female doctors with children was less likely to agree (OR 0.29, 95% CI 0.20-0.42). CONCLUSIONS: The differences in obstetricians' attitudes are not founded on concrete medical evidence. Cultural factors, legal liability and variables linked to the specific perinatal care organisation of the various countries play a role. Greater emphasis should be placed on understanding the motivation, values and fears underlying a woman's request for elective caesarean delivery.

Adult↗

PubMed2005

Does socioeconomic status affect the use of community-based psychiatric services? A South Verona case register study.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on psychiatric service use in an Italian area with a well-developed community-based psychiatric service. METHOD: An index of SES was calculated from nine census variables and grouped into four categories, ranging from SES-I-affluent to SES-IV-deprived, for each of 328 census blocks (CB). Fifteen indicators of psychiatric service use were collected using the psychiatric case register. All patients resident in the catchment area, who had at least one psychiatric contact in 1996 (n=989), were included in the study. RESULTS: Indicators of in-patient, day-patient, out-patient and community service use showed an inverse association with SES. Only first-ever and long-term psychotic patients were equally distributed in the four SES groups. CONCLUSION: The inverse association between SES and most indicators of psychiatric service use suggests that the planning of community-based services and resource allocation should take into account the SES of residents.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2005

Observational study of suspected maltreatment in Italian paediatric emergency departments.

AIMS: To evaluate how often children seen in paediatric accident & emergency (A&E) departments were suspected of abuse or neglect, and to explore some of the correlates of suspected child maltreatment. METHODS: Multicentre, cross-sectional study of 15 randomised census days during a six month period. Trained research assistants working with local paediatric staff completed a purpose made anonymised checklist covering sociodemographic and medical information. A six point suspicion index was used to rate compatibility with child maltreatment based on the occurrence of observable harm. Statistical analysis was carried out on the basis that a score of 4 or more was suspicious of child maltreatment. Nineteen hospitals provided standardised paediatric A&E consultation data on 0-14 year olds presenting between 10 am and 10 pm. RESULTS: Of 10 175 assessed children, 204 aroused suspicion of child maltreatment (95% CI 163 to 214 per 10,000). In a logistic regression model of suspected maltreatment statistically significant associations were found with socioeconomic disadvantage, children living in single parent families, and developmental delay. There was no correlation with pre-school age, male gender, foreign origin, or living in urban areas. CONCLUSIONS: Child maltreatment based on immediate scoring of suspicion, focused on observable harm, occurred in 2% of a representative sample of paediatric emergency consultations in Italy. This was more common if there were associated social and developmental vulnerabilities. True prevalence of child maltreatment in emergency departments remains elusive because of changing definitions and forensic validation problems.

Adolescent↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Trends in maternal and infant health in poor urban neighborhoods: good news from the 1990s, but challenges remain.

OBJECTIVES: During the 1990s, numerous public policy changes occurred that may have affected the health of mothers and infants in low-income neighborhoods. This article examines trends in key maternal and child health indicators to determine whether disparities between high-poverty neighborhoods and other neighborhoods have declined. METHODS: Using neighborhood-level vital statistics and U.S. Census data, we categorized "neighborhoods" (Census tracts) as being high poverty (greater than 30% of population below the federal poverty level in 1990) or not. We compared trends in four key indicators--births to teenagers, late prenatal care, low birth-weight; and infant mortality--over the 1990s among high-poverty and other neighborhoods in Cuyahoga County, Ohio; Denver, Colorado; Marion County, Indiana; and Oakland, California. RESULTS: In all four metropolitan areas, trends in high-poverty neighborhoods were more favorable than in other neighborhoods. The most consistently positive trend was the reduction in the rate of teen births. The metropolitan areas with the most intensive programs to improve maternal and child health--Cuyahoga County and Oakland-saw the most consistent improvement across all indicators. Still, great disparities between high-poverty and other neighborhoods remain, and only Oakland shows promise of achieving some of the Healthy People 2010 maternal and child health goals in its high-poverty neighborhoods. CONCLUSIONS: While there has been a reduction in maternal and infant health disparities between high-poverty and other neighborhoods, much work remains to eliminate disparities and achieve the 2010 goals. Small area data are useful in isolating the neighborhoods that should be targeted. Experience from the 1990s suggests that a combination of several intensive interventions can be effective at reducing disparities.

Adolescent↗

PubMed2001

The association between deaths from myocardial infarction and household size in England and Wales.

BACKGROUND: Chronic infection with organisms such as Chlamydia pneumoniae is thought to cause coronary heart disease. We investigated whether myocardial infarction deaths are associated with large household size and overcrowding, as these are factors that may facilitate the transmission of infection. DESIGN: Ecological study of England and Wales. METHODS: Population data were obtained from the 1991 National Census and mortality data were obtained from the Office of National Statistics. For various categories of household size and overcrowding, we calculated mortality rates standardized for age, sex and deprivation. RESULTS: Standardized mortality rates for acute respiratory infections were associated with household size and overcrowding, while rates for myocardial infarction and gastric carcinoma, both putatively associated with chronic infection, were associated with household size. For combined deaths from causes other than myocardial infarction, there were small associations with household size and overcrowding. In the case of myocardial infarction, the association was generally strongest in the age group 45-54.9 years. For this age group, the standardized mortality rate ratio for the category of largest size household was 2.7 in the year 1991. CONCLUSIONS: There is an association between household size and mortality from myocardial infarction. Chronic infection is a possible cause.

Adult↗

PubMed2001

Experience collecting interim data on mortality: an example from the RALES study.

INTRODUCTION: The Randomized Aldactone Evaluation Study (RALES) randomized 822 patients to receive 25 mg spironolactone daily and 841 to receive placebo. The primary endpoint was death from all causes. Randomization began on March 24, 1995; recruitment was completed on December 31, 1996; follow-up was scheduled to continue through December 31, 1999. Evidence of a sizeable benefit on mortality emerged early in the RALES. The RALES data safety monitoring board (DSMB), which met semiannually throughout the trial, used a prespecified statistical guideline to recommend stopping for efficacy. At the DSMB's request, its meetings were preceded by an 'endpoint sweep', that is, a census of all participants to confirm their vital status. METHODS: We used computer simulation to evaluate the effect of the sweeps. RESULTS: The sweeps led to an estimated 5 to 8% increase in the number of reported deaths at the fourth and fifth interim analyses. The data crossed the statistical boundary at the fifth interim analysis. If investigators had reported all deaths within the protocol-required 24-h window, the DSMB might have recommended stopping after the fourth interim analysis. DISCUSSION: Although endpoint sweeps can cause practical problems at the clinical centers, sweeps are very useful if the intervals between patient visits or contact are long or if endpoints require adjudication by committee, reading center, or central laboratory. CONCLUSION: We recommend that trials with interim analyses institute active reporting of the primary endpoints and endpoint sweeps.

Journal Article↗

PubMed2005

Socio-economic inequalities in suicide: a European comparative study.

BACKGROUND: Social factors have been shown to be predictors of suicide. It is not known whether these factors vary between countries. AIMS: To present a first European overview of socio-economic inequalities in suicide mortality among men and women. METHOD: We used a prospective follow-up of censuses matched with vital statistics in ten European populations. Directly standardised rates of suicide were computed for each country. RESULTS: In men, a low level of educational attainment was a risk factor for suicide in eight out of ten countries. Suicide inequalities were smaller and less consistent in women. In most countries, the greater the socio-economic disadvantage, the higher is the risk of suicide. The population of Turin evidenced no socio-economic inequalities. CONCLUSIONS: Socio-economic inequalities in suicide are a generalised phenomenon in western Europe, but the pattern and magnitude of these inequalities vary between countries. These inequalities call for improved access to psychiatric care for lower socio-economic groups.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

No preventive effect of dietary fiber against colon cancer in the Japanese population: a cross-sectional analysis.

The report of Fuchs et al. in 1999 on the protective effects of dietary fiber (DF) against colon carcinogenesis has led many researchers to question the benefits of DF. We analyzed the relationship between dietary intake and mortality from colon cancer in Japan cross-sectionally. Dietary data were taken from the National Nutrition Survey. The standardized mortality ratio (SMR) was calculated using data from "Vital Statistics" and "the Population Census in Japan." Multiple regression analysis (stepwise variable selection method) was performed with the SMR of colon cancer as the objective variable and intake of DF, nutrients, and food groups in 1966 as the explanatory variables. The beta regression coefficient was significantly positive for intakes of fat, protein, and vitamin C and significantly negative for intakes of calcium and vitamin A to the SMR of colon cancer. However, no significant correlation was observed for DF or for any of the various food groups analyzed. In conclusion, our data do not demonstrate any protective effect of DF on colon cancer in subjects with a low fat intake (Japanese subjects), which supports Fuchs' findings in subjects with high fat intake (U.S. subjects).

Colonic Neoplasms↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Assisted delivery in the teenage population: the effect of inter-hospital variation, deprivation, and age.

UNLABELLED: The objective was to determine the relationship between the risk of assisted delivery in women aged under 20 years and place of treatment, deprivation and age. DESIGN: Cross sectional survey utilising routinely collected hospitals admissions data. POPULATION: Teenagers (women aged under 20 years) whose delivery resulted in a hospital admission in the period April 1st 1994 to March 31st 1997 in the Trent Health Region of England. METHODS: The cases were identified using Office of Population Census and Surveys procedural codes, and International Classification of Diseases diagnostic codes associated with delivery. Variables collected included type of delivery, age at delivery and place of treatment. The data were analysed using the chi-square test for categorical data and the independent samples t-test for continuous data. Logistic regression analysis was used to calculate adjusted odds ratios for the variables of type of assisted delivery and place of treatment. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Factors associated with increased risk of assisted delivery. RESULTS: There was variation in rates of instrumental delivery between hospitals, with two having a significantly increased risk of assisted delivery, suggesting that place of treatment may be a factor in the risk of teenage patients experiencing an assisted delivery. There was also a large amount of variation in terms of the risk of experiencing a forceps or vacuum extraction compared to caesarean section. Age (under 16 years and 16-19 years of age) had no effect on the risk of a teenage patient experiencing an assisted delivery (X2 = 2.59 df = 1 P = 0.11 OR 1.27 (95% CI 0.94 to 1.72)). Similarly, teenagers who experience an assisted delivery were not more likely to come from a more deprived area than teenagers who did not have an assisted delivery (P = 0.189). CONCLUSIONS: The risk of assisted delivery varied between hospitals, suggesting that this factor is important in terms of a young women's risk of an assisted delivery. The young women in this study who had experienced an assisted delivery were not significantly different to young women who had a normal delivery. They were not more likely to be aged under 16 years of age, and were not more likely to be from a more deprived area.

Adolescent↗