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PubMed2026

Epigenome-wide analysis of DNA-methylation signatures following climate-related disasters.

BACKGROUND: Floods and tropical cyclones (TCs), two of the most frequent and costliest climate-related disasters worldwide, have been linked to sustained health risks extending beyond acute hazards. However, evidence on the underlying epigenetic mechanisms remains scarce. We aimed to characterize DNA methylation patterns associated with exposure to floods and TCs of varying intensities. METHODS: We collected peripheral blood samples from 479 women (132 twin pairs and 215 of their sisters) across Australia. Blood-derived DNA methylation profiles were assessed using the Illumina HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Daily flood and TC exposure data for the 6 years preceding each blood draw were obtained from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory and the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship, respectively, and linked to participants based on residential addresses. Using a within-sibship analytical framework that accounted for shared familial factors and other relevant covariates, we examined associations between flood and TC exposures of varying intensities and site-specific methylation at each cytosine-guanine dinucleotide (CpG). Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were identified using a combination of the comb-p and DMRcate algorithms. RESULTS: There were 164 CpGs and 219 DMRs associated with flood and TC exposures (Bonferroni-adjusted p value < 0.05), mapping to 242 genes enriched in pathways related to inflammation and immune regulation. These genes have been implicated in a wide range of human diseases or phenotypes. The number of differentially methylated CpGs increased with more recent and higher-intensity exposures. Intensity-dependent gene regulation was observed, with genes such as AMT and C22orf45 consistently implicated across various exposure levels, whereas RNF39 and ACY3 emerged only at higher intensities. CONCLUSIONS: Exposures to floods and TCs were associated with differentially DNA methylated signals across the human genome, exhibiting intensity-dependent patterns. The identified signals and related gene pathways may shed light on the biological mechanism underlying the profound health effects of climate-related disasters.

Humans↗

PubMed2004

Will climate change really affect our health? Results from a European assessment.

Climate hazards such as floods and heat waves are known to affect health. The frequency and intensity of such events may change with global climate change. Our knowledge of the health impacts of such events is now increasing. Heat waves are associated with significant excess mortality, even in the UK population, and this is concentrated in the elderly. Social factors are also important in an individual's risk of dying during a heat wave. Floods may cause long-term psychological consequences. Our current capacity to address the health impacts of such events is, however, limited. There is a need for research to improve the effectiveness of interventions in the near term, as well as assess the adaptation strategies needed to address climate change in the long term.

Climate↗

PubMed2001

The influence of climate variation and change on diarrheal disease in the Pacific Islands.

Freshwater resources are a high-priority issue in the Pacific region. Water shortage is a serious problem in many small island states, and many depend heavily on rainwater as the source of their water. Lack of safe water supplies is an important factor in diarrheal illness. There have been no previous studies looking specifically at the relationship between climate variability and diarrhea in the Pacific region. We carried out two related studies to explore the potential relationship between climate variability and the incidence of diarrhea in the Pacific Islands. In the first study, we examined the average annual rates of diarrhea in adults, as well as temperature and water availability from 1986 to 1994 for 18 Pacific Island countries. There was a positive association between annual average temperature and the rate of diarrhea reports, and a negative association between water availability and diarrhea rates. In the second study, we examined diarrhea notifications in Fiji in relation to estimates of temperature and rainfall, using Poisson regression analysis of monthly data for 1978-1998. There were positive associations between diarrhea reports and temperature and between diarrhea reports and extremes of rainfall. These results are consistent with previous research and suggest that global climate change is likely to exacerbate diarrheal illness in many Pacific Island countries.

Child, Preschool↗

PubMed2001

Coupling between annual and ENSO timescales in the malaria-climate association in Colombia.

We present evidence that the El Niño phenomenon intensifies the annual cycle of malaria cases for Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in endemic areas of Colombia as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the normal annual cycle of temperature and precipitation. We used simultaneous analyses of both variables at both timescales, as well as correlation and power spectral analyses of detailed spatial (municipal) and temporal (monthly) records. During "normal years," endemic malaria in rural Colombia exhibits a clear-cut "normal" annual cycle, which is tightly associated with prevalent climatic conditions, mainly mean temperature, precipitation, dew point, and river discharges. During historical El Niño events (interannual time scale), the timing of malaria outbreaks does not change from the annual cycle, but the number of cases intensifies. Such anomalies are associated with a consistent pattern of hydrological and climatic anomalies: increase in mean temperature, decrease in precipitation, increase in dew point, and decrease in river discharges, all of which favor malaria transmission. Such coupling explains why the effect appears stronger and more persistent during the second half of El Niño's year (0), and during the first half of the year (+1). We illustrate this finding with data for diverse localities in Buenaventura (on the Pacific coast) and Caucasia (along the Cauca river floodplain), but conclusions have been found valid for multiple localities throughout endemic regions of Colombia. The identified coupling between annual and interannual timescales in the climate-malaria system shed new light toward understanding the exact linkages between environmental, entomological, and epidemiological factors conductive to malaria outbreaks, and also imposes the coupling of those timescales in public health intervention programs.

Animals↗

PubMed2001

Climate variability and change in the United States: potential impacts on water- and foodborne diseases caused by microbiologic agents.

Exposure to waterborne and foodborne pathogens can occur via drinking water (associated with fecal contamination), seafood (due to natural microbial hazards, toxins, or wastewater disposal) or fresh produce (irrigated or processed with contaminated water). Weather influences the transport and dissemination of these microbial agents via rainfall and runoff and the survival and/or growth through such factors as temperature. Federal and state laws and regulatory programs protect much of the U.S. population from waterborne disease; however, if climate variability increases, current and future deficiencies in areas such as watershed protection, infrastructure, and storm drainage systems will probably increase the risk of contamination events. Knowledge about transport processes and the fate of microbial pollutants associated with rainfall and snowmelt is key to predicting risks from a change in weather variability. Although recent studies identified links between climate variability and occurrence of microbial agents in water, the relationships need further quantification in the context of other stresses. In the marine environment as well, there are few studies that adequately address the potential health effects of climate variability in combination with other stresses such as overfishing, introduced species, and rise in sea level. Advances in monitoring are necessary to enhance early-warning and prevention capabilities. Application of existing technologies, such as molecular fingerprinting to track contaminant sources or satellite remote sensing to detect coastal algal blooms, could be expanded. This assessment recommends incorporating a range of future scenarios of improvement plans for current deficiencies in the public health infrastructure to achieve more realistic risk assessments.

Bacterial Infections↗

PubMed2001

The potential impacts of climate variability and change on health impacts of extreme weather events in the United States.

Extreme weather events such as precipitation extremes and severe storms cause hundreds of deaths and injuries annually in the United States. Climate change may alter the frequency, timing, intensity, and duration of these events. Increases in heavy precipitation have occurred over the past century. Future climate scenarios show likely increases in the frequency of extreme precipitation events, including precipitation during hurricanes, raising the risk of floods. Frequencies of tornadoes and hurricanes cannot reliably be projected. Injury and death are the direct health impacts most often associated with natural disasters. Secondary effects, mediated by changes in ecologic systems and public health infrastructure, also occur. The health impacts of extreme weather events hinge on the vulnerabilities and recovery capacities of the natural environment and the local population. Relevant variables include building codes, warning systems, disaster policies, evacuation plans, and relief efforts. There are many federal, state, and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations involved in planning for and responding to natural disasters in the United States. Future research on health impacts of extreme weather events should focus on improving climate models to project any trends in regional extreme events and as a result improve public health preparedness and mitigation. Epidemiologic studies of health effects beyond the direct impacts of disaster will provide a more accurate measure of the full health impacts and will assist in planning and resource allocation.

Climate↗

PubMed2005

Climate factors influencing coccidioidomycosis seasonality and outbreaks.

Although broad links between climatic factors and coccidioidomycosis have been established, the identification of simple and robust relationships linking climatic controls to seasonal timing and outbreaks of the disease has remained elusive. Using an adaptive data-oriented method for estimating date of exposure, in this article I analyze hypotheses linking climate and dust to fungal growth and dispersion, and evaluate their respective roles for Pima County, Arizona. Results confirm a strong bimodal disease seasonality that was suspected but not previously seen in reported data. Dispersion-related conditions are important predictors of coccidioidomycosis incidence during fall, winter, and the arid foresummer. However, precipitation during the normally arid foresummer 1.5-2 years before the season of exposure is the dominant predictor of the disease in all seasons, accounting for half of the overall variance. Cross-validated models combining antecedent and concurrent conditions explain 80% of the variance in coccidioidomycosis incidence. .

Arizona↗

PubMed2006

National assessment of human health effects of climate change in Portugal: approach and key findings.

In this study we investigated the potential impact of climate change in Portugal on heat-related mortality, air pollution-related health effects, and selected vectorborne diseases. The assessment used climate scenarios from two regional climate models for a range of future time periods. The annual heat-related death rates in Lisbon may increase from between 5.4 and 6 per 100,000 in 1980-1998 to between 8.5 and 12.1 by the 2020s and to a maximum of 29.5 by the 2050s, if no adaptations occur. The projected warmer and more variable weather may result in better dispersion of nitrogen dioxide levels in winter, whereas the higher temperatures may reduce air quality during the warmer months by increasing tropospheric ozone levels. We estimated the future risk of zoonoses using ecologic scenarios to describe future changes in vectors and parasites. Malaria and schistosomiasis, which are currently not endemic in Portugal, are more sensitive to the introduction of infected vectors than to temperature changes. Higher temperatures may increase the transmission risk of zoonoses that are currently endemic to Portugal, such as leishmaniasis, Lyme disease, and Mediterranean spotted fever.

Air Pollution↗

PubMed1998

Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion: an ecoepidemiologic modeling approach.

Anthropogenic climate changes and stratospheric ozone depletion affect human health in various ways. Current mainstream epidemiologic research methods do not appear well adapted to analyze these health impacts, which involve complex systems influenced by human interventions or simpler processes that will take place in the future. This paper discusses a different paradigm for studying the health impacts of global environmental changes and focuses on the development of integrated ecoepidemiologic models using three examples--the effect of climate change on vector-borne diseases, the effect of climate change on thermal-related mortality, and the effects of increasing ultraviolet levels because of ozone depletion on the rates of skin cancer.

Animals↗

PubMed1999

Public health consequences of global climate change in the United States--some regions may suffer disproportionately.

Current risk assessments of the likely regional health impacts of global climate change (GCC) are hindered by two factors. First, dose-response relationships between weather parameters and many of the likely health effects have not been developed, and second, reliable estimates of future regional climates across the United States are still beyond the scope of current modeling efforts. Consequently, probabilistic risk estimates of most of the likely regional health impacts of GCC have such a high degree of uncertainty that their usefulness to health officials dealing with regional issues is very limited. With the numerous pressures on today's health care systems, it is understandable that the possible consequences of GCC have received scant attention from regional health care decision makers. Indeed, the consensus among this community appears to be that any increases in health effects associated with GCC will be easily handled by the current health care system. However, such a position may be naive as the potential exists that an unequal distribution of such effects could overwhelm some regions, whereas others may feel little or no impact. This review of the likely regional impacts of GCC has been structured as a semianalytical look at this issue of distributional effects. Because of the lack of dose-response information and reliable estimates of future regional climates, however, it takes a historical perspective. That is, it assumes that the quality and quantity of health risks a region faces under GCC will be directly related to its recent history of health risks from warm weather/climate-related diseases as well as to the size, characteristics, and distribution of the sensitive subpopulations currently residing within its borders. The approach is semiquantitative; however, it uses national data gathered on a regional level and as such should only be used to generate a hypothesis rather than test it. When applied to the United States, its outcome leads to the hypothesis that if indeed history repeats itself, some states or regions may be more greatly affected by GCC than others, not only because historically they are more prone to summer weather/climate-related diseases, but also because they contain a greater proportion of the sensitive subpopulations in the United States.

Air Pollutants↗

PubMed2005

Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa.

BACKGROUND: Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world's poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the "Meningitis Belt" strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified. METHODS AND FINDINGS: By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk) and are highly correlated. CONCLUSIONS: This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward-eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.

Africa, Western↗

PubMedDate not supplied

Public health impacts of global climate change.

The potential health impacts of climate change are wide-ranging, from direct impacts at familiar local scales, through indirect effects occurring at the regional or ecosystem level, to long term effects on the sustainability of global systems. To assess these potential impacts, there is a need to broaden the scope of health impact assessment. Eco-epidemiology is emerging as a response to this need. Eco-epidemiology entails a shift in focus: from direct (toxicological) to indirect (ecological) mechanisms; and from effects occurring at 'human' temporal and geographical scales to those at regional and geophysical scales. We discuss the potential health impacts of climate change on each scale. At the global scale, interactions and feedbacks between systems are critical determinants of long term outcomes. From an eco-epidemiological perspective, the study of climate change becomes inseparable from the study of global change more generally.

Adult↗

PubMed2003

The threat of climate change to freshwater pearl mussel populations.

Changes in climate are occurring around the world and the effects on ecosystems will vary, depending on the extent and nature of these changes. In northern Europe, experts predict that annual rainfall will increase significantly, along with dramatic storm events and flooding in the next 50-100 years. Scotland is a stronghold of the endangered freshwater pearl mussel, Margaritifera margaritifera (L.), and a number of populations may be threatened. For example, large floods have been shown to adversely affect mussels, and although these stochastic events were historically rare, they may now be occurring more often as a result of climate change. Populations may also be affected by a number of other factors, including predicted changes in temperature, sea level, habitat availability, host fish stocks and human activity. In this paper, we explain how climate change may impact M. margaritifera and discuss the general implications for the conservation management of this species.

Animals↗

PubMed2003

Terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change.

The terrestrial water cycle and the impact of climate change are critical for agricultural and natural ecosystems. In this paper, we assess both by running a macro-scale water balance model under a baseline condition and 2 General Circulation Model (GCM)-based climate change scenarios. The results show that in 2021-2030, water demand will increase worldwide due to climate change. Water shortage is expected to worsen in western Asia, the Arabian Peninsula, northern and southern Africa, northeastern Australia, southwestern North America, and central South America. A significant increase in surface runoff is expected in southern Asia and a significant decrease is expected in northern South America. These changes will have implications for regional environment and socioeconomics.

Agriculture↗

PubMed2004

Responses to projected changes in climate and UV-B at the species level.

Environmental manipulation experiments showed that species respond individualistically to each environmental-change variable. The greatest responses of plants were generally to nutrient, particularly nitrogen, addition. Summer warming experiments showed that woody plant responses were dominant and that mosses and lichens became less abundant. Responses to warming were controlled by moisture availability and snow cover. Many invertebrates increased population growth in response to summer warming, as long as desiccation was not induced. CO2 and UV-B enrichment experiments showed that plant and animal responses were small. However, some microorganisms and species of fungi were sensitive to increased UV-B and some intensive mutagenic actions could, perhaps, lead to unexpected epidemic outbreaks. Tundra soil heating, CO2 enrichment and amendment with mineral nutrients generally accelerated microbial activity. Algae are likely to dominate cyanobacteria in milder climates. Expected increases in winter freeze-thaw cycles leading to ice-crust formation are likely to severely reduce winter survival rate and disrupt the population dynamics of many terrestrial animals. A deeper snow cover is likely to restrict access to winter pastures by reindeer/caribou and their ability to flee from predators while any earlier onset of the snow-free period is likely to stimulate increased plant growth. Initial species responses to climate change might occur at the sub-species level: an Arctic plant or animal species with high genetic/racial diversity has proved an ability to adapt to different environmental conditions in the past and is likely to do so also in the future. Indigenous knowledge, air photographs, satellite images and monitoring show that changes in the distributions of some species are already occurring: Arctic vegetation is becoming more shrubby and more productive, there have been recent changes in the ranges of caribou, and "new" species of insects and birds previously associated with areas south of the treeline have been recorded. In contrast, almost all Arctic breeding bird species are declining and models predict further quite dramatic reductions of the populations of tundra birds due to warming. Species-climate response surface models predict potential future ranges of current Arctic species that are often markedly reduced and displaced northwards in response to warming. In contrast, invertebrates and microorganisms are very likely to quickly expand their ranges northwards into the Arctic.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

PubMedDate not supplied

[Air pollution, climate change and health].

Emissions into the atmosphere related to the climate change may further worsen the effects which air pollution has on the health of our citizens, not only indirectly due to the impact of weather phenomenon, but directly, due to the direct effects pollutants have on health. However, the efforts throughout most of the world have been aimed at dealing with these two problems separately for too many years. In fact, it is very often believed that the climate's health-safeguarding benefits would be achieved in the long term. To the contrary, what has become obvious over recent years is that the actions for reducing the emissions of polluting gases could redound in beneficial effects in the short term due to the reduction of the impact of air pollutants on the health of our citizens. This article presents the possible risks of the pollutants most closely related to climate changes, such as ozone and fine particles. Bearing in mind the uncertainties and unknowns related to this subject, the main implications for the policies related to this matter in Spain, as well as the needs for research are set out herein. In this regard, both from the standpoint of monitoring as well as research, it is considered necessary for an epidemiological monitoring system of the effects of air pollution and the relationship thereof to global changes to be established.

Air Pollutants↗

PubMed2004

Differences in climatic factors between Ross River virus disease outbreak and nonoutbreak years.

Ross River virus is a common mosquito-borne arbovirus responsible for outbreaks of polyarthritic disease throughout Australia. To better understand climatic factors preceding outbreaks, we compared seasonal and monthly rainfall and temperature trends in outbreak and nonoutbreak years at four epidemic-prone locations. Our analyses showed that rainfall in outbreak years tended to be above average and higher than rainfall in nonoutbreak years. Overall temperatures were warmer during outbreak years. However, there were a number of distinct deviations in temperature, which seem to play a role in either promoting or inhibiting outbreaks. These preliminary findings show that climatic differences occur between outbreak and nonoutbreak years; however, seasonal and monthly trends differed across geo-climatic regions of the country. More detailed research is imperative if we are to optimize the surveillance and control of epidemic polyarthritic disease in Australia.

Alphavirus Infections↗

PubMed2006

Climate effects on fire regimes and tree recruitment in Black Hills ponderosa pine forests.

Climate influences forest structure through effects on both species demography (recruitment and mortality) and disturbance regimes. Here, I compare multi-century chronologies of regional fire years and tree recruitment from ponderosa pine forests in the Black Hills of southwestern South Dakota and northeastern Wyoming to reconstructions of precipitation and global circulation indices. Regional fire years were affected by droughts and variations in both Pacific and Atlantic sea surface temperatures. Fires were synchronous with La Niñas, cool phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and warm phases of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). These quasi-periodic circulation features are associated with drought conditions over much of the western United States. The opposite pattern (El Niño, warm PDO, cool AMO) was associated with fewer fires than expected. Regional tree recruitment largely occurred during wet periods in precipitation reconstructions, with the most abundant recruitment coeval with an extended pluvial from the late 1700s to early 1800s. Widespread even-aged cohorts likely were not the result of large crown fires causing overstory mortality, but rather were caused by optimal climate conditions that contributed to synchronous regional recruitment and longer intervals between surface fires. Synchronous recruitment driven by climate is an example of the Moran effect. The presence of abundant fire-scarred trees in multi-aged stands supports a prevailing historical model for ponderosa pine forests in which recurrent surface fires affected heterogenous forest structure, although the Black Hills apparently had a greater range of fire behavior and resulting forest structure over multi-decadal time scales than ponderosa pine forests of the Southwest that burned more often.

Chronology as Topic↗