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A mixture model with random-effects components for clustering correlated gene-expression profiles.

MOTIVATION: The clustering of gene profiles across some experimental conditions of interest contributes significantly to the elucidation of unknown gene function, the validation of gene discoveries and the interpretation of biological processes. However, this clustering problem is not straightforward as the profiles of the genes are not all independently distributed and the expression levels may have been obtained from an experimental design involving replicated arrays. Ignoring the dependence between the gene profiles and the structure of the replicated data can result in important sources of variability in the experiments being overlooked in the analysis, with the consequent possibility of misleading inferences being made. We propose a random-effects model that provides a unified approach to the clustering of genes with correlated expression levels measured in a wide variety of experimental situations. Our model is an extension of the normal mixture model to account for the correlations between the gene profiles and to enable covariate information to be incorporated into the clustering process. Hence the model is applicable to longitudinal studies with or without replication, for example, time-course experiments by using time as a covariate, and to cross-sectional experiments by using categorical covariates to represent the different experimental classes. RESULTS: We show that our random-effects model can be fitted by maximum likelihood via the EM algorithm for which the E(expectation)and M(maximization) steps can be implemented in closed form. Hence our model can be fitted deterministically without the need for time-consuming Monte Carlo approximations. The effectiveness of our model-based procedure for the clustering of correlated gene profiles is demonstrated on three real datasets, representing typical microarray experimental designs, covering time-course, repeated-measurement and cross-sectional data. In these examples, relevant clusters of the genes are obtained, which are supported by existing gene-function annotation. A synthetic dataset is considered too. AVAILABILITY: A Fortran program blue called EMMIX-WIRE (EM-based MIXture analysis WIth Random Effects) is available on request from the corresponding author.

Algorithms↗

Strong anomaly in diffusion generated by iterated maps.

We investigate the diffusion generated deterministically by periodic iterated maps that are defined by x(t+1) = x(t)+ax(z)(t)exp[-(b/x(t))(z-1)], z>1. It is shown that the obtained mean squared displacement grows asymptotically as sigma(2)(t) approximately ln (1/(z-1))(t) and that the corresponding propagator decays exponentially with the scaling variable |x|/square root of (sigma(2)(t))]. This strong diffusional anomaly stems from the anomalously broad distribution of waiting times in the corresponding random walk process and leads to a behavior obtained for diffusion in the presence of random local fields. A scaling approach is introduced which connects the explicit form of the maps to the mean squared displacement.

Journal Article↗

The dynamics of multidimensional secession: fixed points and ideological condensation.

We explore a generalized, stochastic seceder model of societal dynamics with variable size polling groups and higher-dimensional opinion vectors, revealing its essential modes of self-organized segregation. Renormalizing to a discrete, deterministic version, we pin down the upper critical size of the sampling group and analytically uncover a self-similar hierarchy of dynamically stable, multiple-branch fixed points. In d>/=3, the evolving, coarsening population suffers collapse to a 2D ideological plane.

Models, Biological↗

A stochastic model of the electrically stimulated auditory nerve: pulse-train response.

The single-pulse model of the companion paper [1] is extended to describe responses to pulse trains by introducing a phenomenological refractory mechanism. Comparisons with physiological data from cat auditory nerve fibers are made for pulse rates between 100 and 800 pulses/s. First, it is shown that both the shape and slope of mean discharge rate curves are better predicted by the stochastic model than by the deterministic model. Second, while interpulse effects such as refractory effects do indeed increase the dynamic range at higher pulse rates, both the physiological data and the model indicate that much of the dynamic range for pulse-train stimuli is due to stochastic activity. Third, it is shown that the stochastic model is able to predict the general magnitude and behavior of variance in discharge rate as a function of pulse rate, while the deterministic model predicts no variance at all.

Analysis of Variance↗

Stochastic properties of synaptic transmission affect the shape of spike time-dependent plasticity curves.

Theoretical studies have shown that calcium influx through N-methyl-D-aspartate (NMDA) receptors is a sufficient signal to account for various induction protocols of bidirectional synaptic plasticity, including spike time-dependent plasticity (STDP). The STDP curves obtained by these different models exhibits a form of spike time-dependent long-term depression that occurs when a presynaptic spike precedes the postsynaptic spike (pre-post LTD). We have previously proposed that this novel form of LTD can serve as an experimental test for the validity of these models. These calcium based theoretical models assumed deterministic calcium dynamics that reflect average properties of synaptic calcium currents. In this paper, we show that taking into account the stochastic properties of synaptic transmission significantly alters the form of STDP curves and may significantly reduce the magnitude of pre-post LTD.

Action Potentials↗

Topographical analysis of spatial patterns generated by a cellular automaton model of the proliferation of a cancer cell line in vitro.

A well-suited model to simulate cellular population dynamics is the two-dimensional cellular automaton model, which consists of a lattice of sites, the value ai,j of each site being updated in discrete time steps according to an identical deterministic rule depending on a neighbourhood of sites around it. A cellular automaton is described which mimics cell population proliferation by replacing the site values by the age and the cycle phase of cells. The model takes into account the size of the cells. It is used to simulate the proliferation of the human breast cancer cell line MCF-7 and the results of the simulation are compared with experimental data obtained from a light microscopic image analysis of the proliferation process. The initial configuration of the cellular automaton is obtained from the discretization of the results of the initial stage of the image processing. After each day of proliferation the pattern obtained from the simulation is compared to the experimental result of the corresponding image analysis. The comparison is made from a topographical point of view through the concept of the minimal spanning tree graph. The agreement between experiment and model is a good starting point to complex models such as cell proliferation under growth effectors or drugs.

Breast Neoplasms↗

Modeling growth of a heterogeneous tumor.

It has long been recognized that the growth of tumor population depends on the initial age distribution of the cells in the tumor and the age-dependent cellular birth rate. Deterministic dual-cell models have been available for sometime; these models take into account the effects of the resultant cell heterogeneity. Nevertheless, these models ignore various variables significantly affecting the growth, such as those characterizing the cells' inherent properties and environmental factors. Uncertainties, or fluctuations, arise when the growth is simulated with the models. Stochastic analysis of these fluctuations is the focus of the current work. Two types of cells are visualized to proliferate separately and to transform mutually during the process. The master equations of the system have been formulated through probabilistic population balance around a particular state by considering all mutually exclusive events. The governing equations for the means, variances, and covariance of the random variables have been derived through the system-size expansion of these nonlinear master equations. The stochastic pathways of the two different types of cells have been numerically simulated by the algorithm derived from the master equation for two different physical situations, one without and, the other, with the chemotherapeutic treatment. The results of the current study illuminate the significance of stochastically modeling the responses of the tumor to a variety of medicinal treatments: The coefficient of variation of the malignant cells' population magnifies with time under chemotherapeutic regimens. Consequently, the impact of the uncertainties in the exact number of malignant cells as expressed by this coefficient of variation is highly unpredictable. For example, it becomes increasingly uncertain if or how fast these cells will reactivate to become a full-blown carcinogenic tumor after treatment.

Cell Count↗

Application of queueing theory with Monte Carlo simulation to the study of the intake and adverse effects of ethanol.

A deterministic approach has so far been used in the modelling of the intake, metabolism, and elimination of ethanol. However, a well-structured deterministic model needs to consider numerous factors, e.g. anatomical structure, metabolic rate, perfusion rates, non-steady-state and steady-state. In the present study, a stochastic approach was used for modelling the study of ethanol because there is a phenomenological analogy between a queueing system and the systems in the body dealing with ethanol. When using queueing theory, both the consumption of ethanol and the removal of the adverse effects associated with its consumption from the body can be random processes; and the requirement for detailed information on the anatomical structure etc. can be minimized. Using queueing theory, estimations can be made with regard to the accumulated adverse effects of ethanol in the body, the time needed to remove the adverse effects etc. Monte Carlo simulation was performed to analyse the drinking of beer and the removal of the adverse effects associated with it, and to show the potential use of queueing theory in the study of ethanol.

Alcohol Drinking↗

Self-organizing mechanism for the formation of ordered neural mappings.

A model for the formation of ordered neural mappings in general, and of retinotectal connections, in particular is given. The main point came from the theory of "noise induced transitions", i.e. order may be the result of the interplay between deterministic and random interactions. An activity-dependent self-organizing mechanism is presented in terms of modifiable synapses. Simulation experiments were done not only for the normal ontogenetic development but also for the plastic behaviour of the retinotopic connections.

Animals↗

The stochastic SI model with recruitment and deaths. I. Comparison with the closed SIS model.

We compare the stochastic and deterministic versions of an SI model with recruitment, background deaths, and deaths due to the disease. For the stochastic version, analysis of the mean number of susceptibles, mx, and infecteds, m(y), and of the means conditioned on nonextinction of the infection, m*x and m*y, shows that (1) if R0 < or = 1, the disease dies out monotonically for the deterministic and stochastic models, and (2) if R0 > 1, the disease dies out early with a probability close to (1/R0)a, where a is the number of infecteds introduced, or m(y) rises to a peak and then dies out slowly. For small populations, N, the peak is an obvious maximum. If N > or = 100, the peak in m(y) is hidden in a long, nearly stationary plateau and m*y is close to the deterministic endemic level for a large range of parameter values. The analytical results are illustrated with simulations. The results for the SI model are motivated by and compared with the corresponding results for the closed SIS model.

Communicable Diseases↗

Stochastic neural network model for spontaneous bursting in hippocampal slices.

A biologically plausible, stochastic, neural network model that exhibits spontaneous transitions between a low-activity (normal) state and a high-activity (epileptic) state is studied by computer simulation. Brief excursions of the network to the high-activity state lead to spontaneous population bursting similar to the behavior observed in hippocampal slices bathed in a high-potassium medium. Although the variability of interburst intervals in this model is due to stochasticity, first return maps of successive interburst intervals show trajectories that resemble the behavior expected near unstable periodic orbits (UPOs) of systems exhibiting deterministic chaos. Simulations of the effects of the application of chaos control, periodic pacing, and anticontrol to the network model yield results that are qualitatively similar to those obtained in experiments on hippocampal slices. Estimation of the statistical significance of UPOs through surrogate data analysis also leads to results that resemble those of similar analysis of data obtained from slice experiments and human epileptic activity. These results suggest that spontaneous population bursting in hippocampal slices may be a manifestation of stochastic bistable dynamics, rather than of deterministic chaos. Our results also question the reliability of some of the recently proposed, UPO-based, statistical methods for detecting determinism and chaos in experimental time-series data.

Action Potentials↗

Spectral bifurcations in dispersive wave turbulence.

Dispersive wave turbulence is studied numerically for a class of one-dimensional nonlinear wave equations. Both deterministic and random (white noise in time) forcings are studied. Four distinct stable spectra are observed-the direct and inverse cascades of weak turbulence (WT) theory, thermal equilibrium, and a fourth spectrum (MMT; Majda, McLaughlin, Tabak). Each spectrum can describe long-time behavior, and each can be only metastable (with quite diverse lifetimes)-depending on details of nonlinearity, forcing, and dissipation. Cases of a long-live MMT transient state dcaying to a state with WT spectra, and vice-versa, are displayed. In the case of freely decaying turbulence, without forcing, both cascades of weak turbulence are observed. These WT states constitute the clearest and most striking numerical observations of WT spectra to date-over four decades of energy, and three decades of spatial, scales. Numerical experiments that study details of the composition, coexistence, and transition between spectra are then discussed, including: (i) for deterministic forcing, sharp distinctions between focusing and defocusing nonlinearities, including the role of long wavelength instabilities, localized coherent structures, and chaotic behavior; (ii) the role of energy growth in time to monitor the selection of MMT or WT spectra; (iii) a second manifestation of the MMT spectrum as it describes a self-similar evolution of the wave, without temporal averaging; (iv) coherent structures and the evolution of the direct and inverse cascades; and (v) nonlocality (in k-space) in the transferral process.

Atmosphere↗

Some genetical inferences from the marriage system of Reading, Berkshire, and its surround area.

A survey of marriages celebrated in 1972/73 in Reading, Berkshire, and its urban field was carried out in 1974. It provided information about the birthplace of husband and wife and of their parents, about their joint home after marriage, and on their social class origins. These data were used to produce a migration-matrix showing the probability of movement from one part of the area (and the outside world) to all the other parts of the area. A modification of the iterative deterministic model of Hiorns et al. (1969) permitted estimates to be made of the number of generations which would elapse before all the subdivisions of the survey area shared 95% of the same ancestry, assuming an initial state of zero relatedness between them and the continuation of current patterns of marital mobility. Without contributions from the 'outside world', the 18 subdivisions of the survey area become ancestrally homogeneous with each other within 3--15 generations, while with contributions from the 'outside world', the process takes not more than six generations. Marriages between social classes combined with intergeneration social mobility make the ancestry of these classes homogeneous after four generations at most.

England↗

Spatiotemporal dynamics in marginal populations.

Population dynamics across a mortality gradient at an ecological margin are investigated using a novel modeling approach that allows direct comparison of stochastic spatially explicit simulation results with deterministic mean field models. The results show that demographic stochasticity has a large effect at population margins such that density profiles fall off more sharply than predicted by mean field models. Substantial spatial structure emerges at the margin, and spatial correlations (measured parallel to the margin) exhibit a sharp maximum in the tail of the density profile, indicating that spatial substructuring is greatest at an intermediate point across the ecological gradient. Such substructuring may have a substantial impact on Allee effects and evolutionary processes in marginal populations.

Animals↗

A stochastic model for CD8(+)T cell dynamics in human immunosenescence: implications for survival and longevity.

We propose here a stochastic model for the CD 8(+)T lymphocyte dynamics on the long time-scale of the human lifespan. Our purpose has been to test the hypothesis, recently proposed on the basis of our experimental data (Fagnoni et al., 2000), that the depletion of virgin CD8(+)T lymphocytes can be considered a reliable biomarker related to the risk of death. This hypothesis is embedded in a more general theory of immunosenescence according to which the accumulation of antigen experienced (AE) T cells and the concomitant exhaustion of antigen non-experienced (ANE) T cells with age, mostly due to the chronic lifelong exposure to antigens, is a major characteristic of the remodeling of the human immune system with age. In our model we considered a deterministic balance of ANE and AE T cell concentrations plus a stochastic forcing, which describes the chronic antigenic stress fluctuations, assuming a mean genetically determined capability of individuals to respond to antigens. The major results of our model is the validation of the above-mentioned hypothesis, since the model is capable of fitting the experimental data concerning the changes of ANE T cell concentration over age, and at the same time to reproduce survival curves similar to the demographic ones. Furthermore, the stochastic process results in being responsible for the peculiar shape of the survival curves.

Aging↗

The position end-set tree: a small automaton for word recognition in biological sequences.

We consider the basic function which locates a specific string of symbols within a longer sequence. When one is expecting to do many substring searches it is worthwhile to build an auxiliary index to the sequence to aid in the search. We propose a method to generate a compact index that can be viewed as a small (partial) deterministic finite automaton recognizing the subword structure of a sequence. We present an algorithm for its construction on-line in linear time. Such a data structure permits the efficient localization of subwords in a sequence and can be used in the development of interactive sequence analysis software.

Algorithms↗

Recent developments in decision-analytic modelling for economic evaluation.

The past few years have seen rapid changes in the methods of decision-analytic modelling of healthcare programmes for the purposes of economic evaluation. This paper focuses on four developments in modelling that have emerged over the past few years or have become more widely used. First, no one optimal method for extrapolating outcomes from clinical trials has yet been established. Modellers may draw from a set of varied assumptions about survival extrapolation that encompass a range of possibilities from highly optimistic to extremely cautious. Secondly, the practicality and appeal of microsimulation as a method for analysing healthcare decision problems has increased dramatically with the speed of computing technology. Individual instantiations of a system are generated by using a random process to draw from probability distributions a large number of times (also known as Monte Carlo or probabilistic simulation). Microsimulation is moving in new directions, such as discrete-event simulations that simulate sequences of events by drawing directly from probability distributions of event times; this approach is now being broadly applied to model situations where populations of patients interact with healthcare delivery systems. Microsimulation modelling of transmission systems at the population level is also rapidly developing. Thirdly, model calibration is emerging as a new tool that may offer health scientists a means of generating important fundamental knowledge about disease processes. Model calibration allows evidence synthesis in which observations on observable quantities are used to draw inferences about unobservable quantities. The methodology of model calibration has advanced considerably, drawing on theories of numerical analysis and mathematical programming such as gradient methods, intelligent grid search algorithms, and many more. As a fourth issue, an area of extraordinary activity is in the use of transmission models to analyse interventions for infectious diseases, including population-wide effects of vaccination. Transmission models use differential equations to simulate, deterministically for the most part, transitions among infection-related health states. Only recently have modelling methodologies been combined so that cost-effectiveness analyses can consider explicitly not only the patient-level benefits of interventions but also the secondary benefits through transmission dynamics. Advances in technology allow more realistic and complex healthcare models to be simulated more rapidly. However, decision makers will not readily accept results from models unless they can understand them intuitively and explain them to others in relatively simple terms. The challenge for the next generation of modellers is not only to harness the power available from these newly accessible methods, but also to extract from the new generation of models the insights that will have the power to influence decision makers.

Clinical Trials as Topic↗