Population substructure and isolation by distance in three continental regions.
Isolation by distance and divergence from a shared population history are two sources of population substructure. Isolation by distance erases population history as populations approach migration-drift equilibrium, while diverging populations descended from a single ancestral population will accumulate genetic differences with time. Here I investigate how much of the worldwide genetic diversity from Jorde et al.'s ([1997] Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 94:3100-3103) 60 tetranucleotide short tandem repeat (STR) data can be explained by isolation by distance. I use Slatkin's measure of population substructure, R(ST), principal components analyses, and Mantel tests to investigate the pattern of genetic diversity at both the intercontinental and intracontinental levels. Geographic distance accounts for almost 60% of world-wide interpopulation genetic relationships. Within continents, the correlations are less, although not significantly so because of wide confidence intervals. These results suggest that populations have not reached migration-drift equilibrium and that there is information in STR data to reconstruct population history. The level of population substructure worldwide is consistent with previous observations, but at the intracontinental level substructure is less. When one examines diversity against distance from the centroid, one sees excess heterozygosity in Africa, a pattern also noted by Stoneking et al. ([1998] Genome Research 7:1061-1071). A larger effective population size in Africa could explain the excess diversity. Greater gene flow in Africa is an unlikely explanation because the African R(ST) value is slightly larger than the Asian and European R(ST)s, pointing to less gene flow and greater substructure among African populations. Furthermore, there are differences in patterns between heterozygosity and allele size variance. Heterozygosity has a higher correlation with distance from the centroid than does allele size variance, and this may reflect demographic history. Kimmel et al. ([1998] Genetics 148:1921-1930) have shown that after a population expansion heterozygosity returns to equilibrium more quickly than does allele size variance. The contrasting patterns between heterozygosity and allele size variance may reflect different times after an expansion. However, simulations and further work need to be done to more thoroughly investigate the possibility that these data reflect population expansions.