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PubMed1978

A multi-echelon menu item forecasting system for hospitals.

A multi-echelon system was designed to generate statistical forecasts of menu-item demand in hospitals from one- through twenty-eight-day intervals prior to patient meal service. The three interdependent echelons were: (1) Forecasting patient census, (2) estimating diet category census, and (3) calculating menu-item demand. Eighteen weeks of supper data were utilized to analyze diet category distribution patterns and menu-item preferences, to test forecasting models, and to evaluate the performance of the forecasting system. A cost function was used to evaluate the efficiency of the mathematical forecasting system and manual technique over a nine-week period. The cost of menu-item forecast errors resulting from the use of adaptive exponential smoothing and Box-Jenkins formulations was approximately 40 per cent less than costs associated with the manual system.

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PubMed1978

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PubMed1984

Variables that affect productivity in school foodservices.

Productivity in school foodservice can be measured through the use of a statistical model designed to evaluate predictors of productivity. The model in this study utilized 6 productivity measures and 12 predictor variables which served to broaden the basis upon which school foodservice administrators can make sound decisions regarding productivity. Significant findings indicated that the number of employees producing meals should be kept to a minimum; contingencies inherent in each operating unit affect the total amount of labor time used to produce meals; managers should have at least a two-year certificate of training; menu steps should be kept to a minimum; the use of disposable ware may aid in keeping payroll cost at a controllable level.

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