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Climate change and latitudinal patterns of intertidal thermal stress.

The interaction of climate and the timing of low tides along the West Coast of the United States creates a complex mosaic of thermal environments, in which northern sites can be more thermally stressful than southern sites. Thus, climate change may not lead to a poleward shift in the distribution of intertidal organisms, as has been proposed, but instead will likely cause localized extinctions at a series of "hot spots." Patterns of exposure to extreme climatic conditions are temporally variable, and tidal predictions suggest that in the next 3 to 5 years "hot spots" are likely to appear at several northern sites.

Animals↗

A rapid shift in a classic clinal pattern in Drosophila reflecting climate change.

Geographical clines in genetic polymorphisms are widely used as evidence of climatic selection and are expected to shift with climate change. We show that the classic latitudinal cline in the alcohol dehydrogenase polymorphism of Drosophila melanogaster has shifted over 20 years in eastern coastal Australia. Southern high-latitude populations now have the genetic constitution of more northerly populations, equivalent to a shift of 4 degrees in latitude. A similar shift was detected for a genetically independent inversion polymorphism, whereas two other linked polymorphisms exhibiting weaker clinal patterns have remained relatively stable. These genetic changes are likely to reflect increasingly warmer and drier conditions and may serve as sensitive biomarkers for climate change.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Impacts of climatic change and fishing on Pacific salmon abundance over the past 300 years.

The effects of climate variability on Pacific salmon abundance are uncertain because historical records are short and are complicated by commercial harvesting and habitat alteration. We use lake sediment records of delta15N and biological indicators to reconstruct sockeye salmon abundance in the Bristol Bay and Kodiak Island regions of Alaska over the past 300 years. Marked shifts in populations occurred over decades during this period, and some pronounced changes appear to be related to climatic change. Variations in salmon returns due to climate or harvesting can have strong impacts on sockeye nursery lake productivity in systems where adult salmon carcasses are important nutrient sources.

Alaska↗

Range shifts and adaptive responses to Quaternary climate change.

Tree taxa shifted latitude or elevation range in response to changes in Quaternary climate. Because many modern trees display adaptive differentiation in relation to latitude or elevation, it is likely that ancient trees were also so differentiated, with environmental sensitivities of populations throughout the range evolving in conjunction with migrations. Rapid climate changes challenge this process by imposing stronger selection and by distancing populations from environments to which they are adapted. The unprecedented rates of climate changes anticipated to occur in the future, coupled with land use changes that impede gene flow, can be expected to disrupt the interplay of adaptation and migration, likely affecting productivity and threatening the persistence of many species.

Adaptation, Physiological↗

Climate and the prevalence of symptoms of asthma, allergic rhinitis, and atopic eczema in children.

AIMS: To investigate the association between climate and atopic diseases using worldwide data from 146 centres of the International Study of Asthma and Allergies in Childhood (ISAAC). METHODS: Between 1992 and 1996, each centre studied random samples of children aged 13-14 and 6-7 years (approx. 3000 per age group and centre) using standardised written and video questionnaires on symptoms of asthma, allergic rhinoconjunctivitis, and atopic eczema during the past 12 months. Data on long term climatic conditions in the centres were abstracted from one standardised source, and mixed linear regression models calculated to take the clustering of centres within countries into account. RESULTS: In Western Europe (57 centres in 12 countries), the prevalence of asthma symptoms, assessed by written questionnaire, increased by 2.7% (95% CI 1.0% to 4.5%) with an increase in the estimated annual mean of indoor relative humidity of 10%. Similar associations were seen for the video questionnaire and the younger age group. Altitude and the annual variation of temperature and relative humidity outdoors were negatively associated with asthma symptoms. The prevalence of eczema symptoms correlated with latitude (positively) and mean annual outdoor temperature (negatively). CONCLUSIONS: Results suggest that climate may affect the prevalence of asthma and atopic eczema in children.

Adolescent↗

Effect of fourteen days of acclimatization on athletic performance in tropical climate.

In order to study the acclimatization process over 14 days of exposure to tropical climate, 9 triathletes performed 4 outdoor indirect continuous multistage tests in both thermoneutral and tropical conditions. The thermoneutral test (TN, 14 degree C, 45% rh) was performed before traveling to the tropical area (Martinique, FWI). The tropical tests were performed 2, 8, and 14 days after arrival (32.9 degree C, 78% rh). During each trial, we measured tympanic temperature, sweat rate, body mass loss, heart rate (HR), and performance. The results showed that 1). the mean tympanic temperature was greater in T2 (P <.001), T8 (P <.01) and T14 (P <.01) than in TN and significantly lower in T14 than in T2 (P <.05); 2). the mean sweat rate was significantly greater (P <.001) in T2, T8 and T14 than in TN and significantly greater (P <.05) in T8 and T14 than in T2; 3). the body mass loss after trials was significantly greater (P <.001) in T2, T8 and T14 than in TN and significantly greater (P <.05) in T8 and T14 than in T2; 4). the mean HR and HR at rest were significantly higher (P <.005) in T2 than in TN, T8, T14 and the mean HR was significantly lower (P <.05) in T14 than in the other trials; and 5). the performance time was significantly lower in T2 (P < 0.02), T8 (P < 0.03) and T14 (P < 0.05) than in TN. We concluded that 14 days of exposure to tropical climate led to changes in physiological parameters but were still insufficient to ensure complete acclimatization in well-trained athletes. The hot/wet climate induced impairment of physiological responses and performance that were still evident on the 14th day.

Acclimatization↗

Biophysics, physiological ecology, and climate change: does mechanism matter?

Recent meta-analyses have shown that the effects of climate change are detectable and significant in their magnitude, but these studies have emphasized the utility of looking for large-scale patterns without necessarily understanding the mechanisms underlying these changes. Using a series of case studies, we explore the potential pitfalls when one fails to incorporate aspects of physiological performance when predicting the consequences of climate change on biotic communities. We argue that by considering the mechanistic details of physiological performance within the context of biophysical ecology (engineering methods of heat, mass and momentum exchange applied to biological systems), such approaches will be better poised to predict where and when the impacts of climate change will most likely occur.

Animals↗

Physiological tolerance to uncompensable heat stress: effects of exercise intensity, protective clothing, and climate.

This study determined the influence of exercise intensity, protective clothing level, and climate on physiological tolerance to uncompensable heat stress. It also compared the relationship between core temperature and the incidence of exhaustion from heat strain for persons wearing protective clothing to previously published data of unclothed persons during uncompensable heat stress. Seven heat-acclimated men attempted 180-min treadmill walks at metabolic rates of approximately 425 and 600 W while wearing full (clo = 1.5) or partial (clo = 1.3) protective clothing in both a desert (43 degrees C dry bulb, 20% relative humidity, wind 2.2 m/s) and tropical (35 degrees C dry bulb, 50% relative humidity, wind 2.2 m/s) climate. During these trials, the evaporative cooling required to maintain thermal balance exceeded the maximal evaporative capacity of the environment and core temperature continued to rise until exhaustion from heat strain occurred. Our findings concerning exhaustion from heat strain are 1) full encapsulation in protective clothing reduces physiological tolerance as core temperature at exhaustion was lower (P < 0.05) in fully than in partially clothed persons, 2) partial encapsulation results in physiological tolerance similar to that reported for unclothed persons, 3) raising metabolic rate from 400 to 600 W does not alter physiological tolerance when subjects are fully clothed, and 4) physiological tolerance is similar when subjects are wearing protective clothing in desert and tropical climates having the same wet bulb globe thermometer. These findings can improve occupational safety guidelines for human heat exposure, as they provide further evidence that the incidence of exhaustion from heat strain can be predicted from core temperature.

Adult↗

Climate-related corrections for improved estimation of energy expenditure from heart rate in children.

The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between children's heart rate (HR) and climatic heat stress at several O2 uptake (Vo2) levels and to construct equations and nomograms for an improved estimation of energy expenditure (EE) from HR monitoring. On four occasions 12 boys and 8 girls (8-11 yr) cycled for 5 min each at 35, 55, and 75% of peak Vo2 (random order), with rest periods in between, in a climatic chamber. The randomly assigned conditions were 22 degrees C dry bulb temperature, 50% relative humidity (RH); 28 degrees C, 55% RH; 32 degrees C, 52% RH; or 35 degrees C, 58% RH. HR and Vo2 were determined during the final 2 min of rest and exercise bouts. HR measured at a dry bulb temperature (T) (HRmeas) was then related to a HR at 22 degrees C that would have been expected to occur at an identical Vo2 (HRcalc22) by using individual 22 degrees C HR-Vo2 regression lines. HRcalc22 could be estimated from HRmeas.[1.175032-(0.007956.T)], with a mean error of prediction for the entire group < 1.5 beats/min for each temperature. The following conclusions were drawn: 1) children's HR at a given Vo2 increases linearly with ambient temperature at 22-35 degrees C, 50-60% RH; and 2) HR can be corrected for the influence of climate in groups of children resting and exercising at the above conditions, thereby reducing the error of estimating EE from HR.

Child↗

Analysis of CCR5Delta32 geographic distribution and its correlation with some climatic and geographic factors.

We studied the possible effects of climatic-geographic factors on the world distribution of the mutant allele for the chemokine receptor gene CCR5, which has a 32-bp deletion (CCR5Delta32) preventing cell invasion by the primary transmitting strain of HIV-1. New data on CCR5 polymorphisms in Russian, Ukrainian, and Moldavian populations are presented. All available data on CCR5Delta32 frequencies in the Old World (number of populations n = 77) were used for construction of a geographical gene map to analyze possible correlations between allele frequencies and eight climatic-geographic parameters. A strong positive correlation was found between the allele frequency and latitude (r = 0.72), a strong negative correlation with annual radiation balance (r = -0.66), and a weaker negative correlation with longitude (r = -0.34). Partial correlations were calculated excluding the influence of latitude. The negative correlation between the allele frequency and annual radiation balance decreased (r = -0.42), but remained large and significant. We propose that the existence of correlations between the cline of CCR5Delta32 frequencies and climatic-geographic parameters provides evidence for a possible effect of either natural environmental factors or large-scale population movements on the distribution of this allele.

Climate↗

Physiological changes in skin barrier function in relation to occlusion level, exposure time and climatic conditions.

Skin occlusion is a condition encountered with various articles as part of everyday life and resulting changes in skin barrier physiology often remain unnoticed. In the present study we aimed to understand the impact of absorbent feminine hygiene articles, one vapor-permeable and one vapor-impermeable, on skin hydration in response to exposure time and different environmental climatic conditions. Using a forearm model, volunteers were patched with moistened vapor-permeable and -impermeable articles in parallel for 1, 3, and 6 h and under different climatic conditions (i.e. 20 degrees C/30% relative humidity, 25 degrees C/50% relative humidity, 30 degrees C/ 75% relative humidity). The physiological changes in the skin barrier function were measured via skin hydration, evaporation of superficial water (skin surface water loss, SSWL) and relative humidity in the microclimate between skin and occlusive article (RH(mc)). The results show that skin hydration, SSWL, and RH(mc) under a vapor-permeable article are reduced versus the vapor-impermeable article for all exposure times at 25 degrees C and 50% relative humidity. SSWL and RH(mc) decrease from their 1-hour peak values with increasing exposure time, while skin hydration decreases only after 3 h of exposure. Lower environmental temperature (20 degrees C) and lower relative humidity (30%) have little impact on the reduction of SSWL and RH(mc,) but more so on the reduction of skin hydration. Higher temperature (30 degrees C) and higher relative humidity (75%) increase RH(mc) and skin hydration under both vapor-permeable and -impermeable articles while SSWL is reduced under the vapor-impermeable article under these conditions. In conclusion, vapor-permeability is the key factor for physiological changes in the barrier function of the skin under occlusion, exposure time and climatic conditions being modulating factors. These findings have been integrated into a model of skin hydration under occlusion in the context of absorbent hygiene articles. While current vapor-impermeable articles are effective in reducing the excessive moisture on the skin due to bodily discharge, vapor permeability adds a further measurable benefit in reducing skin overhydration.

Adult↗

Cold climate is an important factor in explaining regional differences in coronary mortality even if serum cholesterol and other established risk factors are taken into account.

Earlier studies have shown a strong regional association between cold climate and coronary mortality in Sweden and that coronary mortality is more strongly associated with cold climate than with other explanatory factors such as drinking water hardness, socioeconomic factors, tobacco and sales of butter. To examine the joint impact of these factors and to investigate regional differences in serum cholesterol and their relation to cold climate and coronary mortality, regression analyses were performed with 259 municipalities in Sweden as units. Mortality from acute myocardial infarction in men aged 40-64 during 1975-1984 was used as the dependent variable. A cold index was calculated, this index and the above mentioned factors were used as explanatory variables. The main results were: Cold index was the strongest factor when introduced into a multiple regression model. Four other strong factors had to be used to obtain the same explanatory strength as cold index did alone, and even when introduced as the last factor, cold index increased the coefficient of determination substantially. In a subsample of 37 municipalities, serum cholesterol was not significantly associated with coronary mortality. However, there was a significant correlation between cold index and serum cholesterol.

Adult↗

Measured gas emissions from four landfills in south africa and some implications for landfill design and methane recovery in semi-arid climates.

The magnitude of annual global emissions of methane from municipal solid waste landfills without landfill gas control systems implies that these landfills are significant contributors to the atmospheric load of greenhouse gases. There have been a number of field studies undertaken internationally to measure actual fluxes of methane and carbon dioxide from landfills, with a view to corroborating modelled predictions of the contribution of landfills to the global greenhouse gas budget. The vast majority of these studies have been undertaken in more temperate climates and in developed countries. This paper reports a study of landfill gas emissions from four large landfills located in the semi-arid interior of South Africa. A static accumulation chamber was used and measurements were made at each site over a period of two to three days. The results were analysed by three different methods, all of them leading to the same general conclusion that landfill gas emission rates were lower than expected. A common conclusion based on results from all four sites was that capping of landfills in semi-arid climates with low permeability covers would probably significantly retard the already low rate of waste degradation and thus gas generation. While this may be regarded as advantageous in the short term, it cannot be relied upon in perpetuity as clayey landfill covers will inevitably desiccate and crack in a semiarid environment. In addition, reasonable after-care periods for such landfills are likely to extend well beyond the currently stipulated 30-year period, and efforts to encourage energy recovery from landfills may be hampered because gas generation rates decrease as the waste dries out under conditions of minimal recharge from precipitation. A landfill cover that allows small amounts of percolation of rainfall into the waste may therefore in fact be beneficial in semiarid climates, although care would need to be taken to carefully regulate this infiltration.

Air Pollutants↗

Experimental landfill caps for semi-arid and arid climates.

The United States EPA Subtitle D municipal solid waste landfill requirements specify that the permeability of a cap to a landfill be no greater than the permeability of the underliner. In recent years the concept of the evapotranspirative (ET) cap has been developed in which the cap is designed to store all rain infiltration and re-evapotranspire it during dry weather. Concern at the long period required for landfilled municipal solid waste to decompose and stabilize in arid and semi-arid climates has led to an extension of the concept of the ET cap. With the infiltrate-stabilize-evapotranspire (ISE) cap, rain infiltration during wet weather is permitted to enter the underlying waste, thus accelerating the decomposition and stabilization process. Excess infiltration is then removed from both waste and cap by evaporation during dry weather. The paper describes the construction and operation of two sets of experimental ISE caps, one in a winter rainfall semi-arid climate, and the other in a summer rainfall semi-arid climate. Observation of the rainfall, soil evaporation and amount of water stored in the caps has allowed water balances to be constructed for caps of various thicknesses. These observations show that the ISE concept is viable. In the limit, when there is insufficient rainfall to infiltrate the waste, an ISE cap operates as an ET cap.

Aluminum Silicates↗

Evidence for survival of Pleistocene climatic changes in Northern refugia by the land snail Trochoidea geyeri (Soós 1926) (Helicellinae, Stylommatophora).

BACKGROUND: The study of organisms with restricted dispersal abilities and presence in the fossil record is particularly adequate to understand the impact of climate changes on the distribution and genetic structure of species. Trochoidea geyeri (Soós 1926) is a land snail restricted to a patchy, insular distribution in Germany and France. Fossil evidence suggests that current populations of T. geyeri are relicts of a much more widespread distribution during more favourable climatic periods in the Pleistocene. RESULTS: Phylogeographic analysis of the mitochondrial 16S rDNA and nuclear ITS-1 sequence variation was used to infer the history of the remnant populations of T. geyeri. Nested clade analysis for both loci suggested that the origin of the species is in the Provence from where it expanded its range first to Southwest France and subsequently from there to Germany. Estimated divergence times predating the last glacial maximum between 25-17 ka implied that the colonization of the northern part of the current species range occurred during the Pleistocene. CONCLUSION: We conclude that T. geyeri could quite successfully persist in cryptic refugia during major climatic changes in the past, despite of a restricted capacity of individuals to actively avoid unfavourable conditions.

Animals↗

Climate change and recent genetic flux in populations of Drosophila robusta.

BACKGROUND: Studied since the early 1940's, chromosomal polymorphisms in the deciduous woods species Drosophila robusta have been characterized by well-defined latitudinal, longitudinal, and elevational clines, but--until at least ten years ago--stable, local population frequencies. Recent biogeographical analyses indicate that D. robusta invaded North America from southeast Asia and has persisted in eastern temperate forests for at least 20-25 my without speciating. The abundant chromosome polymorphisms found across the range of D. robusta are thus likely to be relatively ancient, having accumulated over many well known climatic cycles in North America. Sufficient long-term data are now available such that we can now gauge the rate of these evolutionary changes in natural populations due to environmental change. RESULTS: Recent local collections have revealed significant changes in the frequencies of several chromosomal forms. New data presented here extend the range of these changes to six states, three in the northeastern United States and three west of the Mississippi River. These data reinforce recent directional changes in which the frequencies of three gene arrangements have reached percentage levels typical of distant southern populations consistent with regional climatic changes. Another gene arrangement has been steadily decreasing in frequency at a number of the sites studied. Meteorological records from 1945 to 2003 indicate temperature increases at all study sites, particularly average minimum air temperatures. CONCLUSIONS: Observation of parallel genetic flux suggests that these long-term temporal frequency shifts in widely disparate populations of D. robusta are evolutionary responses to environmental change. Since these chromosomes are known to be sensitive to ambient temperature, regional climatic shifts associated with global warming are likely to be responsible.

Analysis of Variance↗

Effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO2 efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada: implications for climate change.

BACKGROUND: The effect of rainfall patterns on soil surface CO2 efflux, soil moisture, soil temperature and plant growth was investigated in a grassland ecosystem of northern Ontario, Canada, where climatic change is predicted to introduce new precipitation regimes. Rain shelters were established in a fallow field consisting mainly of Trifolium hybridum L., Trifolium pratense L., and Phleum pratense L. Daytime ambient air temperatures within the shelters increased by an average of 1.9 degrees C similar to predicted future increases in air temperatures for this region. To simulate six precipitation regimes which cover the maximum range to be expected under climate change, a portable irrigation system was designed to modify the frequency of monthly rainfall events with a constant delivery rate of water, while maintaining contemporary average precipitation volumes. Controls consisted of blocks irrigated with frequencies and total monthly precipitation consistent with the 25 year average rainfall for this location. RESULTS: Seasonal soil moisture correlated with soil surface CO2 efflux (R = 0.756, P < 0.001) and above ground plant biomass (R = 0.447, P = 0.029). By reducing irrigation frequency, soil surface CO2 efflux decreased by 80%, P < 0.001, while soil moisture content decreased by 42%, P < 0.001. CONCLUSIONS: Manipulating the number of precipitation events and inter-rainfall intervals, while maintaining monthly rainfall averages impacted CO2 efflux and plant growth. Even with monthly rainfall averages that are similar to contemporary monthly precipitation averages, decreasing the number of monthly rainfall events reduced soil surface CO2 efflux and plant growth through soil moisture deficits. Although many have speculated that climate change will increase ecosystem productivity, our results show that a reduction in the number of monthly rainfall events while maintaining monthly averages will limit carbon dynamics.

Biomass↗

The relationship between the Plasmodium falciparum parasite ratio in childhood and climate estimates of malaria transmission in Kenya.

BACKGROUND: Plasmodium falciparum morbid and fatal risks are considerably higher in areas supporting parasite prevalence > or =25%, when compared with low transmission areas supporting parasite prevalence below 25%. Recent descriptions of the health impacts of malaria in Africa are based upon categorical descriptions of a climate-driven fuzzy model of suitability (FCS) for stable transmission developed by the Mapping Malaria Risk in Africa collaboration (MARA). METHODS: An electronic and national search was undertaken to identify community-based parasite prevalence surveys in Kenya. Data from these surveys were matched using ArcView 3.2 to extract spatially congruent estimates of the FCS values generated by the MARA model. Levels of agreement between three classes used during recent continental burden estimations of parasite prevalence (0%, >0-<25% and > or =25%) and three classes of FCS (0, >0-<0.75 and > or =0.75) were tested using the kappa (k) statistic and examined as continuous variables to define better levels of agreement. RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen independent parasite prevalence surveys undertaken since 1980 were identified during the search. Overall agreement between the three classes of parasite prevalence and FCS was weak although significant (k = 0.367, p < 0.0001). The overall correlation between the FCS and the parasite ratio when considered as continuous variables was also positive (0.364, p < 0.001). The margins of error were in the stable, endemic (parasite ratio > or =25%) class with 42% of surveys represented by an FCS <0.75. Reducing the FCS value criterion to > or =0.6 improved the classification of stable, endemic parasite ratio surveys. Zero values of FCS were not adequate discriminators of zero parasite prevalence. CONCLUSION: Using the MARA model to categorically distinguish populations at differing intensities of malaria transmission in Kenya may under-represent those who are exposed to stable, endemic transmission and over-represent those at no risk. The MARA approach to defining FCS values of suitability for stable transmission represents our only contemporary continental level map of malaria in Africa but there is a need to redefine Africa's population at risk in accordance with both climatic and non-climatic determinants of P. falciparum transmission intensity to provide a more informed approach to estimating the morbid and fatal consequences of infection across the continent.

Adolescent↗