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A pilot study on the use of decision theory and value of information analysis as part of the NHS Health Technology Assessment programme.

OBJECTIVES: To demonstrate the benefits of using appropriate decision-analytic methods and value of information analysis (DA-VOI). Also to establish the feasibility and implications of applying these methods to inform the prioritisation process of the NHS Health Technology Assessment (HTA) programme, and possibly extending their use therein. DATA SOURCES: Three research topics that were considered by the HTA panels in the September 2002 and February 2003 prioritisation rounds. REVIEW METHODS: A brief and non-technical overview of DA-VOI methods was circulated to the panels and Prioritisation Strategy Group (PSG). For each case study the results were presented to the panels and the PSG in the form of brief case-study reports. Feedback on the DA-VOI analysis and its presentation was obtained in the form of completed questionnaires from panel members, and reports from panel senior lecturers and PSG members. RESULTS: Although none of the research topics identified met all of the original selection criteria for inclusion as case studies in the pilot, it was possible to construct appropriate decision-analytic models and conduct probabilistic analysis for each topic. In each case, the tasks were completed within the time-frame required by the existing HTA research prioritisation process. The brief case-study reports provided a description of the decision problem, a summary of the current evidence base and a characterisation of decision uncertainty in the form of cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. Estimates of value of information for the decision problem were presented for relevant patient groups and clinical settings, as well as the value of information associated with particular model inputs. The implications for the value of research in each of the areas were presented in general terms. Details were also provided on what the analysis suggested regarding the design of any future research in terms of features such as the relevant patient groups and comparators, and whether experimental design was likely to be required. CONCLUSIONS: The pilot study showed that, even with very short timelines, it is possible to undertake DA-VOI that can feed into the priority-setting process that has been developed for the HTA programme. There are however a number of areas that need to be established at the beginning of the process, such as clarification of the nature of the decision problem for which additional research is being considered, explicitness about which existing data should be used and how data that exhibit particular weaknesses should be down-weighted in the analysis. Other areas, including optimum application of researcher time, integrating the vignette (a summary of the clinical problem and existing evidence) and the use of DA-VOI, training, use of sensitivity analyses, and deployment of clinical expertise, are also considered in terms of the potential implementation of DA-VOI within the HTA programme. Recommendations for further research include how literature searching should focus on those variables to which the model's results are most sensitive and with the highest expected value of perfect information; methods of evidence synthesis (multiple parameter synthesis) to consider the evidence surrounding multiple comparators and networks of evidence; and ways in which the value of sample information can be used by the NHS HTA programme and other research funders to decide on the most efficient design of new evaluative research. There is also a need for an analytical framework to be developed that can jointly address the question of whether additional resources would better be devoted to additional research or interventions to change clinical practice.

Biomedical Technology↗

Using a technological community framework to manage new medical technologies. The case of umbilical cord blood (UCB) banking.

A technological community framework can be used to explain and manage new medical technologies. It describes emergence, commercialization, and standardization of an innovation or technology within the context of its whole network (or community) of stakeholders. This framework is used to illustrate the emergence, commercialization, and standardization of a relatively new medical technology--umbilical cord blood (UCB) banking. Umbilical cord blood may prove to be a source of stem cells for bone marrow transplant that is safer, more accessible, and less expensive than current sources of stem cells. The technological community framework can signal potential problems as the technology emerges, and help healthcare delivery systems and providers to effectively assess and manage the technology. The framework can also be applied to other medical technologies and innovations.

Biomedical Technology↗

Intensive care ethics in evolution.

The ethics of treating the seriously and critically ill have not been static throughout the ages. Twentieth century medicine has inherited from the nineteenth century a science which places an inappropriate weight on diagnosis over prognosis and management, combined with a seventeenth century duty to prolong life. However other earlier ethical traditions, both Hippocratic and Christian, respected both the limitations of medicine and emphasised the importance of prognosis. This paper outlines some of the historical precedents for the treatment of the critically ill, and also how the current paradigm limits clinical practice and causes ethical tensions. An understanding that other paradigms have been ethically acceptable in the past allows wider consideration and acceptance of alternatives for the future. However future alternatives will also have to address the role of technology, given its importance in this area of medicine.

Biomedical Technology↗

Concerning technology: thinking with Heidegger.

In human lives, technology holds sway in mundane and extraordinary ways, such as in the ways we work, entertain, transport, and feed ourselves, and importantly in the ways we encounter and manage health, disease, illness, and death. A significant area of Heidegger's later work is questioning technology. Unlike many current inquiries that centre on contemporary technology's function, utility, and positive transformations, Heidegger offers a radical way of thinking about technology through developing an inquiry that uncovers technology's essence of revealing. In this article, Heidegger's thinking about technological modes of revealing in regard to bodies, health, and illness is explored. In Heidegger's view, the ordered revealing of modern technology has overshadowed other modes of revealing. This article highlights how remembering concealment and unconcealment in its many modes can be relevant to nurses and others involved in health care. Through tracing Heidegger's thinking about technology, a more critical approach to the effects and outcomes of modern technologies within health care systems can be generated.

Biomedical Technology↗

The effect of population aging on future hospital demand.

This analysis examines how shifts in the age distribution of the U.S. population, reflecting both the aging of the baby-boom generation and increased longevity, will affect demand for hospital inpatient services during the next ten years. Over that period, aging will drive about 0.74 percent annual growth in use of services. Aging's effect on inpatient demand varies by medical condition, with the highest rates of growth in services most used by elderly patients. Even for those services, however, aging is a much less important factor than local population trends and changing practice patterns attributable to advancing medical technology.

Aged↗

Indigenous hospital technology in Nigeria: problems and recommendations.

In Nigeria, after gaining independence there arose a national desire for industrialization in order to reduce the high cost of sustaining national development. This desire has its accompanying problems which are examined with reference to indigenous hospital technology. Solutions to these problems are also suggested.

Biomedical Technology↗